Thursday, August 22, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER DOLLAR GAINS – USDJPY LOSSES

We have seen some sluggish development, mostly due to the initial (Dollar) bullish foundation waves and this should now see (I hope) stronger losses in EURUSD and GBPUSD and gains in USDCHF. Still, we should take this step by step… 

Yesterday’s development in USDJPY provided the (brown) Wave i and Wave ii. Of course, it’s rather strange to see this pair moving down with EURUSD and GBPUSD… but it’s clear that we shall see losses. 

Clearly, with both EURUSD and USDJPY moving lower side by side, we should see some decent losses in EURJPY. This is going to be a difficult to find the Wave c/iii with these two pairs side by side…

I’m now beginning to think that we have seen the Aussie high and more likely to push back below the current low…



Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER MOVES

I do get very frustrated when I know where targets are going to develop but have to wait for the Wave i and Wave ii, particularly in the instance where it was long sideways move or expanded flat. Well, I think we are coming out of the Wave i and Wave ii to see strong Dollar gains. 

Of course, we still have USDJPY ready and waiting for losses, but also EURUSD and GBPUSD but the questions is, how quickly the decline develops… However, that being said, we shall see these losses.

USDCHF managed an expanded flat so it now has to move back higher to once it was … but now we can get on with further gains. The only issue is that it could be quite slow… but let’s hope it’s a stronger move.

With the combination of a bearish USDJPY and also EURUSD, the cross is going to see some decent losses… probably the best profit potential over the day…

The Aussie… Oh, do I have to say the same things again? It is so boring to see a 4-day sideways move… Let’s get on with it… but which way?


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

MIX AND MATCH…

Blimey crikey… what a mess… Yesterday was a rough sideways move, much to my disgust. What’s more, I’m beginning to see another “strange” day. 

I fancy a pullback in EURUSD before we see further losses… However, GBPUSD has only a limited upside although I’d much prefer direct losses. At least, we need to allow for both alternatives. 

Coming to USDJPY, the (cyan) Wave b/iii recorded a 92% retracement. There ain’t any room on the upside! Therefore, we should be seeing losses… at last…

So, between EURUSD and USDJPY we shall need to see whether it will form a triangle or just direct losses. 

The Aussie, still inebriated, looks like seeing gains… That is my preference as I have mentioned several times. However, it may be best to wait to see a break above the current top…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, August 19, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS ONCE MORE…

Having EURUSD and, in particular, GBPUSD that saw a new pullback of 90%, we have very little wriggle room on the upside. Hence, I suspect we are going to see some decent losses. 

Then I took a look at the weekly decline in USDJPY, particularly because it had seen a new low last week that moved to a new low that could imply that we have seen the final low. Clearly, within a weekly development I looked at the major swings. I have just taken the time to see if there was an alternative and it actually worked quite well… I would suggest taking care. Basically, if we just see gains in USDJPY, I’d suggest that we have seen the low.

My only problem is in USDCHF. This has been a difficult development and I have some doubts. Perhaps the minor pullback at the end of Friday was just that and could see gains. However, this pair will need to make its own way.

If USDJPY has seen the final low, then we’re going to see some consolidation or more limited losses. There is also the risk of an expanded flat although I tend to doubt, but I suggest caution here also.

The Aussie… Oh! The Aussie, walking in the Outback and getting lost… Will it rally to a new high to reach towards a new high; or, will it now join the brat packs and make its way to a new low…?


Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey

Friday, August 16, 2019

MOSTLY DOLLAR GAINS TODAY

I noted that in USDJPY that it saw a low at 105.07, that was 11 points below daily (cyan) (a)/(b). However, as far as I can see, we haven’t seen the (brown) Wave iii… I’d like to think that we can see that drop, pullback and drop but the final low is going to be quite difficult to establish in terms of targets…

Both EURUSD and GBPUSD, while there could be a minor new high, over the day we should be heading lower over the day and into next week. As long as 0.9798 breaks higher in USDCHF, then that will begin to see further gains. However, I really couldn’t make much sense of the rally. Best take care. The alternative will be an expanded flat back…

With EURUSD and USDJPY both likely to see losses, we should see some decent losses…

And what of the old cobbler dahn under, it has seen a pullback. It hasn’t broken above the 0.6821 high just yet, but it seems to have the potential. The alternative is a break below 0.6735…


Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey

Thursday, August 15, 2019

FOLLOWING ON…

To be honest, we’re basically still on the main outlooks. I have finally resolved the puzzle in EURUSD. This will see a dip, pullback and further losses over the day. GBPUSD woke up after midnight and saw the darkness, so it decided to go to sleep. Will it see a pullback as I had assumed a few days ago, or will it just see losses? Well, perhaps with EURUSD looking to see a pullback, there is a chance that GBPUSD will mimic the idea… Once we have confirmed losses in GBPUSD I’ll be relieved…

When it came to USDCHF, well, it didn’t really do very much at all. So, we’re pretty much sitting in the middle of a consolidation and we have to toss a coin… Or perhaps, with USDJPY back on the downside towards the targets I had been looking for.

EURJPY provided the roller coaster. We should a see a limited pullback and then further losses and then we can look for the Wave iii and Wave iv … and Wave v … Once that has been seen, a pullback will be in place.

The Aussie… oh dear… The old amber nectar has been in play. Down a bit, up a bit and down a bit. I’d still prefer to see a new high but at this stage I’d rather wait for the break…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

SOME PUZZLES TO BE SOLVED

Yesterday was not quite as I had expected. 

Let’s start with EURUSD. I have been battling with a potential triangle, but it doesn’t seem to have been a triangle. I would call it a “mess”. I have come to the point where I feel we may see a new high – but below 1.1266. Over the day, we should see losses in this pair. It will be best to remain neutral until we finally get back to the Dollar upside.

USDJPY… I’ve had to make a slight adjustment and we should be looking for losses over the day – and that’s definitely required. Whether it gets below the Wave iii, I’m not so sure. It seems that USDJPY and USDCHF appear to be buddies and both should see losses. Whether it will get below 0.9659 is something to consider. If it does, then we’ll need another final zigzag lower.

GBPUSD hasn’t found the highs I had thought. I’d prefer to see a deeper pullback, but the alternative is deeper losses – that’s going to be interesting…

Down under, we’re still battling between a new high or a direct decline to new lows… It’s tiresome, but we’ll have to bear up…

I’ve provided the potential for an expanded flat, but frankly with USDJPY moving lower again, I suspect we’ll be looking to the downside. The only puzzle is in EURUSD. Will it see a new high or, direct losses…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

STILL SLOW GOING…

We have seen some slow, Dollar losses in USDJPY and that should continue. At the same time, we appear to be seeing complex triangle in EURUSD that should see a dip and a pullback before we can get on with the process of seeing deeper losses. Strangely, if I have this correct, USDCHF should move in parallel with USDJPY to see losses. Most likely this will develop in slow motion…

The good old GBPUSD (God Bless Her Majesty) still needs a deeper pullback. That actually is quite appropriate since EURUSD will need a pullback as mentioned above. So once these two pairs find their highs, we can get on with losses…

As for the Aussie, gee, this is in neutral territory. Will it break to new lows – or – new highs… If I have my way, I’d like to see a new high to form a bearish divergence. That should then see losses. However, we have the alternative of a direct break below 0.6677… This pair needs to be cautious…

EURJPY… I’m torn between just direct losses, as long as USDJPY provides the downside but the other side is that EURUSD will need a pullback. 

Puzzles, puzzles, puzzles…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, August 12, 2019

MIX AND MATCH…

I’m sitting here, looking at the range of pairs and I can’t see a balance between them all. Perhaps I’ve not caught things correctly. Just as an example, EURUSD appears to need losses while GBPUSD needs gains. It doesn’t seem correct. If there is any alternative in EURUSD, perhaps we have seen a triangle and could just see gains and that would see a new high but with a limit at 1.1266… Seems a bit lame.

I’d suggest taking care. I still feel that EURUSD should see losses. As for GBPUSD, well, should it just goes lower, then I’ll have to look for my error…

At least, we have USDJPY moving down to the target I have suggested and that should also provide further bearish momentum for EURJPY also. 

For the final conundrum, the Aussie hasn’t formed a bearish divergence. Ideally, we should see a second rally before going lower – an ideally with a bearish divergence. However, just keep in mind that we may just see losses. 


Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

Friday, August 9, 2019

THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES…

At least, we have seen some Dollar gains but it’s slow going. Having said that, I’m not too surprised with GBPUSD still appearing to be developing a triangle that will need pullback and then losses. If we just see losses, then we’re looking at more impulsive development. However, I doubt this because we still have to see losses in USDJPY and, by gum, it’s been slow, but I still look for the downside.

Another pair that has been creeping around – EURUSD – should be seeing losses to catch up with GBPUSD. However, we mayneed to allow for a triangle. I tend to doubt this due to GBPUSD… For USDCHF, we have choices. Does it finally see a triple three or a pullback higher? Perhaps USDJPY would partner with the Swissie…

I also have a bearish EURJPY and with USDJPY most likely driving the two pairs (with EURUSD) the downside still seems very vulnerable…

No bearish divergence in AUDUSD. This could see minor losses but overall, we need a bearish divergence to push lower… That looks like a job for next week…


Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

Thursday, August 8, 2019

STILL LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH EXCEPT USDJPY

I have changed my mind about the extreme losses in USDJPY. However, we should see losses that should move below 104.69 and later and then we have to take care. It’s possible to that we can see a little more.

Meanwhile, excluding USDJPY, I am still expecting to see a triangle in GBPUSD although it’s possible to see a move lower, but we’ll have to take care. I’ll try and explain this within the individual pairs.

EURUSD needs to form more decent losses. If we are to form a triangle then the we’ll have a long, slow development. If you see a stronger decline, then the triangle is likely. If we see a limited decline, then we’re more likely to form a Wave i and then a Wave ii.

We may have seen the low in USDCHF within a double zigzag. However, there is the risk of a final zigzag to complete a triple three. Keep both in mind and I’ll let you know the break level to see gains.

Still in EURJPY, we have options. I tend to feel that we won’t have a complex correction. We should see losses through USDJPY and the balance between the EURUSD options – so overall losses.

As for the upside-down pair, AUDUSD still seems to need a slightly higher pullback. We don’t have a bearish divergence at this moment but that’s something we need to note. This pullback, as I mentioned yesterday, needn’t see a strong move higher.


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

A BALANCE BETWEEN AN IMPULSIVE DAY OR A COMPLEX CORRECTION

Having said that we should see a Dollar bullish day, I still have concerns over USDJPY. The Wave ^E is just too deep. I will provide the weekly chart today and that does seem to have the potential for Dollar losses. Let’s just say that we need to be cautious in case we see a sharp drop once more. 

Overall, there is the potential for complex corrections – and that seems to be a pattern through some of the pairs. Keep that in mind.

Otherwise, the outlook does look Dollar bullish. Yes, we can see pullbacks early in the day, but the outcome should be a bearish GBPUSD and EURUSD and a bullish USDCHF. I note that in EURUSD, the rally we saw came in a 3-wave move and therefore we may see a complex correction – perhaps a triangle. Otherwise, we could just see losses.

GBPUSD may see a complex correction. USDCHF needs gains.

EURJPY is another 3-wave move so there could still be a complex correction – or just losses back below 117.67…

AUDUSD … finally completed the Wave v but don’t get too concerned about the pullback because the next decline is going to be firm…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

CAUTIOUS AT THE START BUT OVERALL, WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS

It wasn’t quite the day I had expected. The balance between GBPUSD and EURUSD was quite astonishing. What we saw in EURUSD was an 81.7% retracement in a Wave b/iii. GBPUSD took the opportunity to have a nap. While I can’t say that we’ll see direct losses, quite frankly we may see a pullback higher before both pairs seeing losses. However, we shall see losses in both pairs.

I am still slightly uncertain in USDJPY. I have provided a triangle, but the depth of losses is something that I have not seen in a triangle. Indeed, there is still a risk of a new low… and frankly I feel this may come to pass…. It will be prudent to be aware of both alternatives…

USDCHF managed a deep, deep expanded flat and almost broke below the 0.9693 low – but has managed to provide a bullish divergence. Overall, we should see this pair push higher again now. 

I mentioned GBPUSD above. All I can say, is that we should now see losses and to work lower to the targets I have been suggesting.

I also had to change the bearish structure in EURJPY to see a pretty deep Wave -b-/-iii-. Now’s the time to see losses but much depends on the balance between the two pairs – even to the possibility of a triangle or any complex correction…

As for the Aussie… well, it really didn’t do very much – perhaps drinking Aussie’s finest beer and having a sleep. However, I suspect we shall see losses…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, August 5, 2019

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE…

I went through the analysis over the weekend. There were still some pairs that had to complete their moves. The one pair I have that is a little tricky is in USDJPY. I have kept it as a triangle, but it is a rather extreme Wave ^E that tends to make me cautious. Therefore, it’ll be prudent to confirm a reversal higher. 

Indeed, the other 3 majors are fine and dandy. I had looked for GBPUSD to move to a new high on the open. That’s done. EURUSD also made a new high – a 78% Wave b/iii. The other pair, USDCHF, was another difficult development but once I put in the triangle that I missed last week, it basically formed an expanded flat to form a (blue) Wave [b] – so allowing for a little lower, we should soon see gains resume.

The Aussie was a “could be a deep pullback … or a shallow pullback…” and the market chose a shallow pullback. So now we should be seeing losses…

EURJPY, as far as I can see, suggests a limited downside and, I hope, that we’ll see a pullback…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thursday, August 1, 2019

A MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH DAY – BUT WE’RE MOVING INTO A REVERSAL

Yesterday wasn’t quite as I expected. For one, EURUSD almost developed a triangle but it ducked out and has taken the GBPUSD route. Indeed, it looks like a pullback in Cable wile EURUSD could see a little lower for a pullback.

USDJPY still needs further gains to reach the (navy) Wave iii, minor pullback and then to reach the (blue) Wave iii. The next part will either be a deep pullback in a Wave iv – or a deep Wave b/v. Equally, USDCHF needs a new high to form a Wave a/iii to then back to the Wave b/iii. 

When it came to EURJPY and its expanded flat, it was quite a deep move lower. Therefore, USDJPY needs to provide the oomph to see some decent gains while EURUSD should only see a minor new low – for a pullback that should help EURJPY rally back higher again.

The Aussie just needs a 5-wave decline to then revert back to the upside for a correction…


Good trading
Ian Copsey