Wednesday, July 31, 2019

A BIT OF A MISH MASH – BUT DOLLAR BULLISH OVERALL

Indeed, we did have a sideways move yesterday. It’s not quite finished. We should see some limited (Dollar) losses over the Asian centre but from there, we should be heading higher again. USDJPY just needs to confirm the expanded flat to then see gains. EURUSD also needs a minor new high to complete the Wave ^c. USDCHF – this is quite uncertain. Perhaps we have seen the low but keep in mind the risk of a minor new low before any stronger bullish moves.

That should keep GBPUSD on the downside…

EURJPY looks a bit of a mess but I still hope to see an expanded flat. This tends to suggest a slow development to see losses. I really wouldn’t like to get in a tangle but wait for breaks…

The Aussie… well it could see a deep pullback in a Wave iv. The alternative is a shallow pullback and then a deep Wave b/v…

So, by the end of the day, we should be heading to a Dollar bullish outcome. 


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

MOSTLY A SIDEWAYS DAY – EXCEPT GBPUSD

While the other pairs were steadily developing, the GBPUSD was pounding the Pound and, barring limited pullbacks, we should see continued losses develop. I actually found this strange because it should have been seeing losses way back… 

The other pairs appear to be seeing a pullback, perhaps a range. I’m still considering a triangle in EURUSD. It certainly seems that way… USDJPY failed to move up to the target I had in mind, but it appears that we are seeing an expanded flat. That’s going to be a big clue as to when the Dollar rally resumes.

I’ve adjusted USDCHF due to the depth of the pullback. So we have formed the (green) Wave a/iii and, along with USDJPY, we should see the reversal higher around the same time.

The Aussie has a firm bullish divergence. I’m not sure whether we have seen the current low but it would be prudent to allow a new low. However, overall, I suspect we shall see gains today.

As for EURJPY, well, it made a new high… just… I’m still neutral on this pair…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, July 29, 2019

THE BORIS FACTOR?

I had been looking for some decent pullbacks, but with USDJPY looking bullish, USDCHF bullish initially – possibly a shallow pullback and later further gains. We have GBPUSD still needing losses. What of EURUSD? Well, there is a risk of a triangle but with the other pairs still looking for Dollar gains, it tends to suggest we shall continue the Dollar strength. 

While I have made these outlooks, there will be some pullbacks – probably minor as the lower degrees through to the higher degrees. One possible chance of a mildly deeper pullback will be in USDJPY once it has reached the (green) Wave (a)/(iii). Ideally, we should see a pullback and then we’re going to need to take care with the general development matching across the pairs. 

The Aussie is approaching the (brown) Wave iii and this will give us a dilemma – shallow pullback and a Wave b/v or a deeper Wave iv? We’ll have to manage that as we go through.

Finally, EURJPY is rather difficult to judge. We are likely to see USDJPY rallying while EURUSD declining. The range we have seen is pretty shallow but it’s best to wait for breaks of the range.


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 26, 2019

STILL LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

On the whole, we managed some decent Dollar gains but there’s more to go. Most likely we could reach to a point today that will see a cap for a reversal. However, at the current positions, the next move will be higher throughout all the pairs. Ideally, I’d like to see USDJPY reach the (green) Wave (a)/(iii). EURUSD is rather uncertain but, as I have it, we need a move lower while USDCHF is still pointing higher.

Out of the 4majors, I was rather surprised with GBPUSD that slowed down. Of course, I don’t take any fundamental input, but I guess that the “Boris” factor probably slowed things down. However, we should be heading lower again today.

I had a long look in EURJPY and decided that something was wrong. I’d still prefer to be cautious because the pullback higher is relatively shallow. Perhaps, with a stronger USDJPY and an uncertain EURUSD, this could be a relatively limited range day.

Finally, the Aussie is still pointing lower…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

Thursday, July 25, 2019

I SENSE SOME FIRM DOLLAR GAINS

When EURUSD found a low yesterday, I expected a deeper pullback. Then, when I woke up and looked at the other pairs. GBPUSD had one of those “I’m gonna have a deep pullback” so we should be seeing losses. USDJPY saw a pullback in a deepish Wave b, Aussie needing to spend a penny lower. I can’t say the same with USDCHF. There’s plenty of downside room but I’d prefer to be cautious. 

I’m not saying that we shall see an immediate strong rush higher at the start. Indeed, there is room on the Dollar downside – but relatively limited.  However, over the rest of the day we appear to have some decent gains in the Dollar…

Even EURJPY has the same outlook. It has potential for a pullback – but limited – but overall, this should then see a stronger decline. 

Therefore, slight caution from the start but expect Dollar gains…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, July 22, 2019

WE HAVE LIMITED DOLLAR DOWNSIDE AND STRONGER UPSIDE

Just looking at the start of trading, we have very, very limited Dollar downside. I have to say that we may see a Dollar pullback – but limited. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dollar just rallied from the open. This is really quite positive but how quickly we see further gains in the Dollar is another matter. Let’s face it, the past several weeks – or more – have been rather slow development. Oh, how I’d like to see some stronger impulsive moves. 

EURUSD is now looking to complete the (purple) sequence to form the (cyan) Wave a/iii and Wave b/iii, to be followed by the Wave iii. Eventually, we should see the Wave -iii-, Wave -iv- and Wave -v-. How long that will take is not yet known. This is very much the same in GBPUSD. I’d like to reach down to the 1.20 area – but again, it will need quite some time.

If we’re talking about a limited pullback, then USDJPY is the one to scorn. It is just 20 points. Again, I’d reckon we’ll see direct gains. Then comes USDCHF. It has just 6 points…

If there was one pair that could have a deeper pullback, then it’s in AUDUSD. Even then, I reckon that we’ll just see losses…

Finally, EURJPY is slightly different. Friday ended the day on a low to form a Wave a. Ideally, we should see a pullback before we can extend to the downside…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 19, 2019

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE


I was a little shocked with the deeper pullback in EURUSD that implied that we had formed a Wave I and Wave ii. More than that, I was even more shocked in AUDUSD that brought us higher to the (purple) Wave -b-. 

However, this should now see a move back to the Dollar upside. EURUSD managed to form a Wave a and maybe Wave b, so we should be heading lower here. GBPUSD also managed a deep Wave ii and therefore we should be reversing that rally to see losses back below the (cyan) Wave i. Both USDJPY and USDCHF suffered further Dollar losses yesterday but both now have bullish divergences and that will provide the impetus to push back higher. 

The only thing is, how quickly can the move back to the current Dollar highs. It’s a Friday, so I suspect we shall see gains, but I doubt we’ll reach the current highs. 

The Aussie… surprised with the rally but we should now see losses. 

In the cross, we have a bearish EURUSD and bullish USDJPY. It doesn’t make for a strong range and the balance between the pairs could see some ups and downs without a particularly strong range.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

Thursday, July 18, 2019

LAST LEGS OF THE PULLBACK AND A REVERSAL OVER THE DAY

I had hoped to have completed the pullback yesterday, but it didn’t quite manage it through yesterday. We need a little more downside in the Dollar, not by too much. We’re even starting with pullback higher in USDJPY to then see a final new low. Equally, EURUSD should also see gains having seen a low in EURJPY. However, while USDCHF may/should see a minor new low, but we should be alert for a reversal higher. GBPUSD…hmmm… It really didn’t make much of the pullback. Will that be the top or a second zigzag? I’m balanced in this pair. 

So, probably into the afternoon, we should be looking for a reversal higher in the Dollar to then continue towards stronger daily targets – although not over one day…

The Aussie has seen a deep pullback but really doesn’t have much room on the upside. Certainly, keep stops above 0.7045… We should see the upside-down currency moving back lower.

As for EURJPY… I am getting a little uncertain of the structure. I’ve attempted to get it right. Certainly, the ideal is for EURUSD and USDJPY to see pullbacks, and that’s my preference but I do find this rather conflicting. It may be best to wait until we have resolved this pullback and then for Dollar gains to develop.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

EARLY DOLLAR LOSSES – PERHAPS A LATER REVERSAL HIGHER

It was good to see some meaningful development yesterday instead of the creepy, crawly “I’m not sure… oh dear, what should I do” outlook. It looks pretty much that we shall see an early Dollar downside. What we need to establish is that we should be heading lower in the Dollar but we should look to ensure that the balance between the pairs is correct in terms of limits. 

Take the example of EURUSD. Yesterday it formed a Wave a/iii. So today we should see a Wave /iii, but the upside limit doeshave a limit in this correction. So, I tend to feel that the Dollar losses will not be too deep… This should provide limits in the other pairs. 

I have placed a (navy) Wave i and Wave ii in USDJPY but there is a risk of a deeper pullback lower before any further gains. USDCHF should also be seeing the same but, as I mentioned above, we do have limits. This is quite important to retain the balance across the pairs and even GBPUSD, having formed a Wave i, must see a Wave ii and there’s quite a large amount of room on the topside. Therefore, we should be looking for the Dollar pullback that balances across the pairs. At the end of the day, we should see a reversal to the Dollar upside.

EURJPY should see a second 5-wave rally to form a (cyan) Wave b/iii. From there we should be heading down to the Wave c/iii…

The Aussie… That was a difficult development. I’m still not entirely sure I have found the Wave I but like the other pairs, we should be seeing Dollar losses in a pullback. 

So, at the end of the day, I suspect that we’ll be looking to see back to the Dollar upside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

RENEWING THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Yesterday was basically the day I had expected. I would have preferred a quicker development but, hey ho, we can’t complain… However, today should have more vigor to push the Dollar higher. I’m not going to provide too much at this stage but “bullish” we should see. Over the past few weeks we have seen some sluggish development. I can’t even say that it will accelerate but, overall, we should be heading higher.

USDJPY should be able to form the Wave i and perhaps a bit more. I’d like to see EURUSD reach down below towards the “normal” Wave a/iii – although I’m not quite sure what “normal” means at times… USDCHF may see a minor pullback but over the day we should be heading higher also.

GBPUSD appears to need a minor new corrective low and followed by a pullback – and if we’re lucky we may even see losses over the day.

While there is some risk of a pullback in EURJPY, the day should head lower again and that could now be the final pair to move back lower – AUDUSD…That was quite a stretched out rally we have seen. It’s now time for losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 12, 2019

...AND BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE…

Well, that was a quickie… Yesterday saw the final low in the Dollar and a reversal, not by too much, but we are now beginning to go through the lower degree development that will build a Wave (a) and then a pullback – and so on. Once we have reached the higher degree the outlook will be a little easier to see as we continue on the Dollar rally. So overall, this should be a limited range day again, but it’s doing its job building up to the higher degree.

However, the good thing is that we have mostly a pretty seen a barrier on the Dollar downside and therefore we should see some decent gains – albeit not exactly exciting. Therefore, keep targets rather limited until we get a rise towards the higher degree development which will then generate stronger moves.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thursday, July 11, 2019

LIMITED DOLLAR LOSSES FOR A REVERSAL HIGHER

Yesterday was a predominantly pullback day. In the process, I have found some errors on the way, but this provides a good opportunity now to begin the process of completing the correction to then move lower. This tends to suggest an initial rally and a reversal to form the bearish foundation waves.

So far, we have seen USDJPY complete a double zigzag and without a bullish divergence we’re likely to see that final zigzag. This also matches with EURUSD that needs a limited rally with momentum beginning to wane.

Two markets were the difficult part. I had to concede to a deep pullback lower. In this scenario, we now have the (blue) Wave -a- at 0.9952 and a deeper Wave -b-/-iii-. Take care in the early stages but we should head higher over the day. This was pretty much the same in GBPUSD, but it meant that the 1.2440 low was the (brown) Wave -a- and we’re now looking for a minor new high – with divergences – to see a reversal lower.

EURJPY edged up yesterday but then whiped back lower. I’d like to see a pullback higher, but I suspect it will not be too deep. Once we have completed the final zigzag in USDJPY, along with the limited upside in EURUSD, we should be heading lower in the cross – or may see a consolidation at some point.

AUDUSD managed to form a Wave (a). From there we have seen some gains but in a pullback. Once again, we need to watch for bearish reversal indications to then see losses...

Good trading 
Ian Copsey

SLOWLY COMING BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

I really get bored with these slow, cumbersome and sleepy development. I know where this is going in the larger picture so why can’t the market get on with its job? I did suggest looking for a second rally in USDJPY and that has developed but it’s a rather awful development. It should still see a new high but over the day it should, I hope, reverse lower. Even the Wave -v- I have placed in the chart in EURUSD appears to have formed a low – along with a bullish divergence. It may be prudent to allow for a new low, but we should – surely – see a pullback higher - please.

USDCHF has been bothering me. It fell just a few pips below the (blue) Wave -iii-. I’d like to see this develop into a “quickie” – up to the Wave iii and then a Wave v pretty quick. However, prudently, we need to just follow that move...

In the land of “Brexit” I still see losses. However, I wonder whether we are seeing one of those broad swings – up and down – to then push lower. I have some concerns over this pair. Just be aware of breaks that could see a break one way or the other.

Between EURUSD and USDJPY, we have seen a deeper pullback. This cross can provide a deep Wave b/iii but overall with EURUSD – hopefully – we can see a new high but once USDJPY has tired of the altitude we should see losses overall.

A pullback appears to be the expectation in the Aussie.

Have a profitable day 
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

SLOW DEVELOPMENT BUT BEGINNING TO TURN

What a slow day we had yesterday. At least, USDJPY appears to have topped out for a correction lower. I’d prefer to allow for a new high. I suggest this because we haven’t seen a bearish divergence. Then came the decline in EURUSD – but oh, so slow losses. It just about managed to reach the Wave -a-/-iii- but even then, it was above the Wave -iii-... or perhaps it needs a minor new low – but even that would be the Wave -a-. However, I suspect we shall soon see the Wave - v- to then provide a pullback higher.

The Swissie still hasn’t managed to find the (blue) Wave -iii- yet but, it should only a few pips to complete. This could see a deepish pullback – or a deep Wave -b-/-v-. This will need some care. An even slower pair, in GBPUSD, seemed to decide to have a break for a while. This could still have the potential to see a pullback higher.

EURJPY was always a potential pullback but it managed that quite well. This will likely see losses today due to the limited low in EURUSD while USDJPY will join in on the downside. Maybe, this could be the best pair to follow but we’ll need some care here.

If we’re talking about a decent decline, AUDUSD still has downside to go. It’ll be a slower decline compared to EURJPY, but we should see losses for a while today.

Good trading 
Ian

Monday, July 8, 2019

THIS LOOKS LIKE A SWING DAY

Friday didn’t quite match the headline and instead we saw some decent Dollar gains. I can’t say that all pairs will quite follow the same outcome today, but there are quite a few pairs that approaching a Wave v.

We seem to need just a 3-wave decline in EURUSD to complete a Wave -v-. USDJPY needs an early pullback to then form a Wave v. USDCHF needs a little more oomph as in needs a Wave v that then links up to a (blue) Wave -iii- and onwards, but not by a huge margin. As for GBPUSD, it’s sorta hanging around a Wave b but I rather doubt we’ll see a strong pullback.

EURJPY is a bit of a puzzler. We have formed a (potential) Wave b/iii. It could be a little higher. The USDJPY element sees some swings – a pullback in a Wave iv and followed by a Wave v. This tends to suggest that with EURUSD completing a Wave -iv- and Wave -v- that we may see a rather sideways day.

Downunder, we should see a minor pullback higher and later losses. The only possibility of a sideways move would be in a complex correction. However, if there’s any stronger losses then follow it.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 5, 2019

MOST LIKELY A LIMITED RANGE DAY

Well, I hope you had a sleepy day… The market sure was slow… Having said that, we’re likely to see a little more as we go into the weekend. I would imagine that the Asian centre is going to be slow going.

Most likely we shall see a (Dollar bullish) pullback which does seem to have been left from Wednesday’s general lows. However, there is an exception – that’s GBPUSD which hasn’t yet completed the Wave v. Perhaps the other pairs may follow suit – but it’s not set in stone. Let’s just say that there are risks on both sides. However, over the day I do expect a Dollar pullback in USDJPY. I’m divided in USDCHF – it could go either way.

EURUSD – most likely gains from the start because there isn’t much room on the downside. I wouldn’t be surprised that the sideways move continues. Perhaps once GBPUSD has completed the Wave v, we should see the pullback higher. 

If there is any early break below Wednesday’s lows, we’re more likely to suggest an expanded flat. 

EURJPY… will likely see a pullback in a Wave  b/iii while AUDUSD – over the day – should head lower…

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey


Wednesday, July 3, 2019

STILL A BIT OF A MIXTURE BETWEEN PAIRS


To sum up, USDJPY may have seen the final high – but allow for a minor new high. So that obviously means that we should see a corrective move over today. This should also see EURUSD seeing losses but towards the end of this we’ll reach the (brown) Wave -a-/-iii- for a pullback. USDCHF is a bit of a conundrum. However, this tends to suggest that, overall, the market may just see a limited pullback to then continue the bullish Dollar move.

GBPUSD still has some downside. It’s a little difficult to judge the development at this stage but overall, if my thoughts above have been correct, it tends to suggest that the pullback will be relatively shallow.

The Aussie looks to see losses – but also should expect a pullback higher before any stronger losses. EURJPY has seen some decent losses – but it seems that we could see a pullback. If my outlook for the pullbacks in the Majors, it tends to suggest we shall see losses overall but with a sideways move at some point.

Good trading
Ian Copsey