Friday, June 28, 2019

FROM SIDEWAYS TO A SWINGING DOLLAR

How slow is this market? It’s terribly slow! At least USDJPY and USDCHF managed some decent gains but EURUSD and GBPUSD decided to flounder in a sideways move. It was terribly frustrating. However, we should be seeing Dollar gains today but even then, considering USDJPY and USDCHF should be pointing higher, we should now see EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to see losses today. Trying to keep the balance between these pairs could still see some swings into next week. So, I’m not looking for strong moves again today. More likely, we’ll see a stronger Dollar over the coming week. 

With EURUSD looking for losses and USDJPY bullish (but with a limit), it tends to suggest a limited range day. As for AUDUSD with the rising wedge, we should see losses but then I suspect we’ll build the bearish foundation waves.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING


Thursday, June 27, 2019

FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

We saw some modest gains in the Dollar yesterday. We should see more today but once that has been seen we should suffer a pullback. USDJPY has been seeing some slow, but constructive gains and I’m expecting more. EURUSD was a rather a sideways move but we should see it lower – and equally in USDCHF. 

The good old Sterling had quite a solid decline initially but then began to build a sideways move. I don’t think it’s a consolidation but more of a minor Wave i and Wave ii, followed by another lower degree Wave i and Wave ii… If I have that correctly, then we should see some decent losses.

While all were in a general range, EURJPY took time to see a second rally. This additional high really doesn’t have any room for further gains so really, we should be looking for losses. The Aussie managed a new high but I reckon we’re going to see losses now…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, June 26, 2019

REVERSAL

There were a few kinks in the development yesterday. However, they’ve all be ratified and basically, we are looking to the Dollar upside once more. Of course, we shall see pullbacks and in the Asian centre it’s normal to see pullbacks but over the day we should be heading lower once more. Even the Dollar Index managed a relatively deep pullback – but we have seen the low so we should be looking for some solid gains.

Even so, we are at an early stage of the larger Dollar rally so we are going to have to work through the lower degrees to generate the larger degrees and that’s going to take a month or two I would guess. USDCHF has a hard task following the deep pullback but over time we’ll be seeing new highs above the current highs. That’s pretty much the same in USDJPY and EURUSD. 

We have also seen a high in EURJPY – something I have been waiting for some time. The only problem is how fast or slow the losses develop. 

The Aussie… I’m still looking for losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 25, 2019

DOLLAR GAINS

I really found yesterday really boring and frustrating. How slow could it have been? EURUSD attempted to try and push higher – which it did – but in such a slow, sluggish move – although it managed to reach the 1.1390-1.1414 area as I suggested. GBPUSD surprised me with a new high but I realised my error so we should now see losses. 

We also had USDCHF break lower to 6 points below the (green) Wave [ii] in an expanded flat - so now we can allow for a little lower, but overall the larger outcome is going to be for gains to resume. 
A for USDJPY… snore… 

AUDUSD managed to complete a triple three so we should be looking lower. Equally, EURJPY should see losses over the day. I’m just slightly wondering whether we may see a minor new high before losses resume.

So, the outcome for today is Dollar bullish – at last…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Monday, June 24, 2019

AN EARLY EURO HIGH TO TURN INTO DOLLAR GAINS

I hadn’t considered a new Dollar high on Friday, but we should see a minor new high on open. We may have also seen a low in USDCHF but, just 3 points lower will take us down to below 0.9716 – such are the limits… We have also seen a high in GBPUSD with just 15 points available. For USDJPY, I suspect we have found the low, but it’ll be prudent to allow a minor new low.

With those flimsy follow-through’s higher, we should be heading lower with the right honourable Prime Minister (elect) providing the way. What a dishonourable bunch of rabbles… Having said that, I called the loss towards 1.20 and perhaps lower in GBPUSD back in 2014. Already, I know where the Wave (iii) range will fall. 

EURJPY may have topped out but there is a risk of a limited new high to complete an expanded flat. With EURUSD seeing a limited push higher on open, as mentioned above, and a USDJPY that could be rather uncertain but over the day it tends to suggest losses…

Over the weekend, I went through AUDUSD and discovered I’d made an awful mistake in suggesting we had seen the (purple) Wave -iii- and Wave -iv-. We are seeing a Wave (b). Whether it sees a minor new high or just direct losses is something to allow for – but overall it should be bearish.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Friday, June 21, 2019

SHAKE OUT – NOW FOR DOLLAR GAINS

Yesterday did continue to see Dollar losses but in the whole picture, it was USDJPY and USDCHF that went on an additional journey. Now we have completed the journey the outcome is pretty clear – Dollar bullish. The only problem is that we now have to work through the bullish foundation waves once more and that tends to suggest a rather sluggish development. Therefore, I can’t see a frantic development – unless some event triggers a scare. Nevertheless, we should be able to look for Dollar gains to resume.

Another pair that had a makeover was in AUDUSD. When the expected Wave iv broke higher I had to work out what had happened. Actually, it was pretty easy – but the development up to that point was so long past that it was difficult to link the higher wave degrees. So now we have a brand spanking new (purple) Wave -iv-. So even now we should be looking lower in the Aussie.

How things develop in EURJPY is less obvious considering the potential losses in EURUSD and the rally in USDJPY. I tend to think that we’ll see a new low for a pullback and later losses again…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING


Thursday, June 20, 2019

PULLDOWN

Well, well, well… After a slow, almost dying market, we have suddenly seen some stronger development but, if I have gotten this correct, we have found the final Dollar lows. Looking at the range of pairs, everything appears to be in order to now move back to the Dollar upside. Yes, it may be prudent to allow for a little more Dollar downside but frankly, I’m not a fan of this – but just being cautious. 

USDJPY was all over the place and I had thought that we had reached the Wave a/iii and Wave b/iii but then it broke below the limit. Then I had to work out what had happened. Well, the Wave b/i I had looked like a 5-wave flat. So… at long last, we can get on with the business of a bullish Dollar. This is consistent through the 4-majors. 

Even the Aussie reached the 58.6% (-1 pip) to reach the Wave (iv) and so now we have quite a decent decline to see… Equally, with EURJPY, we should head lower also.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, June 19, 2019

PULLBACK

Yesterday, we have seen the Dollar highs for now in EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD. Therefore, we should be looking at a corrective process. How deep this will be is pretty difficult to judge although if you look at EURUSD it doesn’t seem to have a massive pullback. USDCHF has formed a Wave -i- and therefore will need a pullback in Wave -ii-. GBPUSD … maybe a modest pullback but overall, as we know, corrections can be slow. 

Now, the final major – USDJPY – has seen deeper losses and frankly, while there could still be a pullback, we should be heading higher…

I ended up screwing up in EURJPY. The Wave i I had was incorrect and instead saw a stronger move lower and overall has formed a (brown) Wave -i- and, like the other three majors, we should be heading back in a Wave -ii-…

Downunder, we have formed the (brown) Wave (iii) and will either see the limit of a Wave (iv) – or we shall see a deep Wave (b)/(v)…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, June 18, 2019

IDEALLY, WE SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

It’s still a slow market but at least we’re getting closer to a pullback. Most likely we should be seeing the reversal today. I just hope that the pullback will be relatively swift. Ha! That’s a joke! Well, ideally, we’ll see a reversal to the Dollar downside. EURUSD is close to finding its low – equally the same in USDCHF but for a pullback lower. 
GBPUSD has just reached the Wave iii and, most likely, we should see a modest pullback – or perhaps a deep Wave b/v…

So, while the three markets noted above, we have USDJPY flapping about, sleeping on the job and really not engaged with the market. It may even see a deeper pullback below the current (green) Wave b. It’s been over a week that I suggested the first reversal target but we ain’t getting there yet…

EURJPY appears to be following a slow pullback higher. Once EURUSD has found its low, this could provide a firmer rally but we still need to be aware of the slothsome USDJPY…

 Finally. The Aussie has reached a Wave (iii) and that could either provide a deep-ish kind of pullback or a deep Wave b/v… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 17, 2019

WE’RE LOOKING FOR A MINOR FOLLOW-THROUGH FOR A REVERSAL

By gum, it has been a slow, slow development. I can’t even say that it’s going to change but – at some point – we’ll begin to see some stronger moves. Basically, EURUSD should just need a 3-wave decline in a Wave v. That’s pretty much the same in USDCHF. However, both USDJPY and GBPUSD should be looking for a slightly firmer move higher in the Dollar. Ideally, USDJPY should be seeing a slightly stronger move higher but I’ve been frustrated with this pair for quite some time, but I’d really like to see this pair finally reach the first reversal target. 

We may have seen the low in EURJPY. We have a decent hourly bullish divergence. Indeed, it tends to suggest that USDJPY should be firmer while EURUSD fiddles around, taking a nap and glad to be doing very little. 

Down under, we have a decline to see to reach the (brown) Wave (c)/(iii) and I fancy the potential for a modestly deep pullback in Wave (iv)…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Friday, June 14, 2019

IT LOOKS LIKE A MIX AND MATCH DAY

I’m getting a bit frustrated with the slow development. In particular, USDJPY should have seen the first reversal target by now but the market just moves sideways. I’ll still keep the Wave iii targets in mind, hopefully, to see some further gains… but… 

EURUSD still needs losses – not too deep but hopefully to form a Wave -i-. USDCHF has been averse to the upside but it must see gains over the day. (Please.) GBPUSD … well, I’d prefer to see losses but there is the risk of an initial pullback higher before those losses. 

There is a chance that we have seen a Wave -i- in EURJPY. The only caveat is that the lower degrees were so shallow that it’s rather difficult to work through the tick-bar development, but it takes so long to work through. 

The Aussie is a little easier. We have seen a 5-wave decline to form the (brown) Wave (a). This should see a decent pullback higher in Wave (b).

Overall, it should still follow the recent development in terms of limited ranges.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, June 13, 2019

WE CONTINUE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION WAVES

At least we’ve finally seen some Dollar gains. It has been a slow process but over the U.S. session, we have finally seen some decent progress. Several pairs are really just building the next higher degree development while others building the lower degrees. This would tend to suggest some swings – a pullback and then later further development to reach the higher degree development. This will likely move into next week. 

I’ve been waiting for the first reversal target in USDJPY, but being frustrated, although I suspect we’ll manage to reach the target today – perhaps into the U.S, session. A few days ago, I mentioned that we should reach to the 1.1200-30 area. Hopefully, we may be able to see that today – maybe tomorrow. USDCHF suffered an expanded flat so we should now be seeing the gains I had been waiting for. GBPUSD finally got up from its slumber to see losses and this should provide a decent decline. 

In the cross, EURJPY has finally managed some losses and should see more but, as I mentioned the swings above, that could just be a slow, slow process. 

The Aussie needs some losses and a pullback… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, June 12, 2019

WE ARE STILL IN THE SLOW, SLOW PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FOUNDATION WAVES

Perhaps I’m too impatient. Well, that could be right but take the example of USDJPY. The start of this move began at 93.78 back in June 2013 and we still have quite some way to go… although I suspect we’ll see some acceleration over the coming months, thanks to Brexit. 

Indeed, we should now begin to find some Dollar bullish development over the next day or three. We need to see USDJPY reach the first reversal target. EURUSD has seen a pullback and at some point, today we are likely to see losses. Equally, USDCHF should move higher and GBPUSD lower. 

I’m slightly uncertain about EURJPY. I’d like to see a minor new high before seeing losses develop. If I haven’t quite hit the right structure, then a break below yesterday’s low… 

As for the Aussie, I’m looking at two alternatives. We may have formed a shallow Wave ii, followed by a (lower degree) wave i and Wave ii. If this is correct, then we’ll be moving lower. The alternative is a deeper pullback in Wave ii… Just take care… and wait for the breaks.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 11, 2019

WE ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FOUNDATION WAVES

We’ve made some decent Dollar gains but there’s still a lot to get through to finally get to the point of a higher degree Wave (i) and Wave (ii). So, we’re going to need to continue following the lower degree development to finally get to the higher degree. This should likely move into next week. 

We should have a good chance of approaching the first reversal target in USDJPY – maybe today but could move into tomorrow. EURUSD may have seen a Wave b but we’ll have to be aware of a deeper Wave b but then we should be heading lower. This is very similar to USDCHF and GBPUSD also, but overall, we should still be looking to the Dollar upside overall. 

As far as I can see, we have formed a Wave i in AUDUSD so we may well see a pullback higher before any stronger decline.

I’m also a little uncertain in EURJPY. We have seen a double zigzag so far but we may even see a final zigzag to complete a triple three. If there are any strong losses in EURUSD, perhaps we can see loses in the cross. However, this will need to move cautiously. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 10, 2019

WE SHALL SEE THE DOLLAR MOVE HIGHER TODAY


I had hoped for the Dollar to just move higher on Friday – but it didn’t come to pass. The key market that will trigger the Dollar gains is in EURUSD. It had opted to take the opportunity for a triple three and may have been completed. However, there is an alternative for a minor new high so keep stops high. Overall, we should see the Dollar upside. Already, USDJPY and USDCHF have seen a deeper pullback and have very little wriggle room on the downside. This also allowed GBPUSD to complete an expanded flat to form the Wave [ii]. Perhaps it may see a minor new high, but overall, once EURUSD has topped out, we should now be looking for stronger Dollar gains.

Even in AUDUSD, we should see losses over the day. EURJPY should see a milder move higher on the open particularly if USDJPY and EURUSD push higher together so there is some risk there. However, once EURUSD has topped out we should begin to see losses in the cross.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 7, 2019

STRONGER DOLLAR MOVES

Yesterday was a rather lackadaisical day. That EURUSD actually made a new 3-wave move higher was rather strange but it’s valid. Perhaps we can see a triple three but from my perspective, the 4 majors are really looking to push higher in the Dollar. For example, USDJPY is now poised to see the first reversal target – and that’s a decent move. Now that we have seen USDCHF finding a deep Wave ii – there’s only one way to go…

This should allow the Aussie to also follow the Dollar upside.

As for the cross, well, we could still see a move higher first before reversing lower. However, once the pullback has been done, we should be looking to the downside.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, June 6, 2019

STRONGER DOLLAR GAINS NOW

I was a little upset with the minor new lows in the Dollar but we’re back on track to begin to make a stronger move higher. However, we have come to a point where we should see an early pullback in the Asian centre before any further gains can be seen. This should provide a stronger platform for a Dollar rally in the European and U.S. centres. Indeed, I am looking for the first reversal target in USDJPY that suggests quite a solid rally.

EURUSD should soon see a Wave v. USDCHF should see a limited pullback before gains resume while GBPUSD is finely balanced between direct losses – or a new high to complete an expanded flat in a Wave [ii]. Either way, over the day we should be heading higher in the Dollar…

The Aussie managed to make a minor new high, rather like the 4 majors, but we have seen the high now and we should be heading lower. 

I was rather amazed at the strength in EURJPY, with bearish divergences and a rising wedge that should have suggested losses. However, with EURUSD moving lower and USDJPY higher we have seen a 3-wave move that could provide a complex correction. This will need some care here.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, June 5, 2019

NOW WE CAN GET BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Having suffered the 1stJanuary mess, and the additional high in EURUSD, I have scrapped the very clearly rubbish that the data provider... err… provided. Having said that, for the most part, his data is good. I suspect he just likes to capture illiquid development. So… we have a different structure now in EURUSD and the next major target is quite some way lower. This tends to suggest that the lower degrees are REALLY lower degrees and we’ll have to build up to the higher degrees and this is going to be a bit messy at times. 

With the other three Majors now having completed the pullback, we’re back on the Dollar upside and basically, this will be the same for all. The only risk is that we still haven’t confirmed whether we’re going to see an expanded flat or a Wave -ii-. 

EURJPY … arggh… what a difficult development in terms of structure but we appear to be seeing a rising wedge and, at some point, that should see a pullback lower. 

The Aussie has found its high so we have a decent move lower to go…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 4, 2019

ANOTHER SURPRISE

Over the turn of the year – 2018-19 – a data provider who is normally pretty good, posted over the New Year. So, I went with it. 

Wrong choice… 

Yesterday’s deeper pullback higher in EURUSD has provided what should now be the (cyan) Wave -b- - perhaps one more push higher before losses. USDJPY has been a pain in the backside – right from the 3rdJanuary and that has affected the development. I think I’ve found the cause, but we should soon see further Dollar gains. Equally, USDCHF appears to have found its low. As for GBPUSD, I have seen an alternative, but we also have the potential for an expanded flat. As the majors are all coming to a reversal, I attempted to provide a Wave i and now we should see a Wave ii. 

The Aussie has topped out – so we should be going lower. EURJPY reached the first reversal target. This should see a pullback – but the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is going to need some care. It could even see a sideways move.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 3, 2019

FRIDAY PROVIDED A SURPRISE

I had thought we’d move into the 1.1108-91 area in EURUSD. After going to sleep all was well. However, what then occurred was a deeper pullback. Very clearly, we have been tricked by a 5-wave decline and we should see a new high after open to then see losses to resume – just a broad swinging move but the lower degrees tend to trick in these cases. 

Even USDJPY triggered a deeper decline. I had thought that the 109.02 had been the Wave v. However, the deep pullback was an aberration to form a Wave iv and now we have probably seen the low – but should hold above 108.08. Therefore, we should be heading higher.

USDCHF still has some further losses to go but only for the Wave v. This should then see gains resume. GBPUSD appears to have formed a Wave ii after an expanded flat. Ideally, we should losses.

I suspect we have seen the low in EURJPY but it may be prudent to allow a margin below. However, even then, while USDJPY can see some decent gains, the limited follow-through higher will then see losses in EURUSD so I’m looking at a potential consolidation.

Finally, the Aussie actually broke higher and needs to reach a Wave iii, a pullback in Wave iv and then a final Wave v. From there we should begin to see losses…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey