Friday, May 31, 2019

SLOW GOING - BUT WE ARE LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

Yesterday was a Steady Eddie day in both EURUSD and GBPUSD. I was wondering when Cable would break below the lows – but it has. Indeed, overall, I’m expecting losses in these two pairs and for USDJPY and USDCHF to move back higher. However, with the balance between EURUSD and GBPUSD compared to USDCHF and USDJPY it tends to suggest a workmanlike day. So still chugging along bit by bit.

The Aussie has – at last – appears to be looking to the downside. Over yesterday it got pretty damn close to the highs, but it now looks to the downside along with all the other pairs. This should continue today.

As for the Cross, EURJPY should be seeing a 3-wave decline to form a Wave [a]. It makes sense because of the slow development we have seen in the majors…

Take it easy – but note the main direction is Dollar bullish.

Have a profitable weekend
Ian Copsey  


FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING


Thursday, May 30, 2019

THE SURPRISE WAS AN IRREGULAR TRIANGLE IN EURUSD …

Well, I’m glad that I worked through the development and noted the potential irregular triangle in EURUSD. Even GBPUSD as seen losses – not below the Wave [i] but it seems pretty clear that it will continue to look to the downside. Once the break below, it will trigger a target – and it’s a pretty deep one but only in the minimum range. However, that’s for another few months. 

Overall, it looks as if all the 4-majors are now on a Dollar bullish roll. Of course, we shall see swings on the way, but it is an early signal. Indeed, I can see in some pairs, definite targets and that will help with the ongoing development. USDJPY will soon reach its Wave v for a pullback – perhaps not too deep. USDCHF still needs Dollar gains. 

With the irregular triangle in EURUSD, it basically provides some decent Dollar gains, and this will allow the downside to continue in EURJPY. Equally, it looks pretty certain that the Aussie will be panting on its heels to see losses. However, I suspect an early pullback before the next run lower…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, May 29, 2019

A LOWER DOLLAR IS STILL ON THE HORIZON


Yesterday was not quite as I expected but the pullback lower in EURUSD has now reached close to the extreme and therefore we should be looking back to the upside. We also saw a modestly deep pullback in USDJPY. That’s going to see EURJPY going higher. Indeed, the Cross had dipped below the recent low so we’re likely to see an expanded flat higher.

USDCHF has reached the Wave a/iii and thus we need a pullback in Wave b/iii. How deep is the issue but the Wave iii is likely to be the normal initial range, so once we’ve seen that and the Wave iv and Wave v that will then form a Wave (a). I have had to adjust the structure in GBPUSD but as far as I can see this should provide the bullish foundation waves for another rally also.

The Aussie had a slow and steady sideways move so the comments from yesterday. Have we seen the (cyan) Wave -b- or will we see a deeper pullback higher.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, May 28, 2019

STILL FOLLOWING A LOWER DOLLAR

Quite clearly, with the U.S. and U.K. having a sleep, we saw limited development as anyone could see. The main direction is Dollar bearish but I’m wary of EURUSD just in case we see an expanded flat. Either way, the rally we are seeing is in good stead but with the other pairs, we’re going to see some limited swings. For example, USDJPY should soon see a Wave v and therefore a Wave a. USDCHF has completed a Wave i and therefore we need a Wave ii.

GBPUSD has seen some strong swings, but basically within a 5-wave move. It still needs gains – but then for a pullback. Beyond that, I suspect we’ll see a pullback and later to see further gains but probably dragging behind EURUSD.

The Aussie appears to have seen a 5-wave rally. I just have a mild concern over the start of the rally. If the (navy) Wave a/iii was actually the Wave i then we could see it higher. 

As for the lonely cross in EURJPY, there could be a triangle – or other complex correction. However, overall, I suspect with EURUSD expecting gains and a languid USDJPY, we should see gains.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, May 23, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL LOWER IN THE DOLLAR

After all the ups and downs in EURUSD, we are finally reaching the (cyan) Wave c/v. I have also noted that GBPUSD has seen both hourly and 4-hour bullish divergences. So once we have seen the EURUSD low we can look to the upside in these two pairs. 

I was correct to be cautious in USDCHF. We did see losses to complete a double zigzag. Perhaps we shall see a pullback and yet another zigzag to complete a triple three. As for USDJPY, I’m rather cautious about the apparent zigzags. This is still going to be a puzzle as to whether the (red) Wave -i- and Wave -ii- or a shallow pullback in the (green) Wave -i- to form a Wave -ii-. This seems to still be an ongoing development that will need dual developments…

I’d love to see the Aussie go higher again – but it’s a coin toss, to be honest. The (cyan) Wave -b- was relatively shallow but with the Wave -iii- it can see those losses directly. Best wait for breaks of the current highs and lows…

Once EURUSD has found its low we should see deeper gains and as discussed in USDJPY, we may see a final zigzag to then push back higher. This should, over the day, see some decent gains in EURJPY.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, May 22, 2019

ANOTHER FRUSTRATING SLOW DAY IN PARADISE

These lower degree developments have been really tough to follow. Look at a bar. One bar. Is that a 5-wave move? A Wave i and Wave ii and Wave a/iii? With this sloth-like development, it has been a horrid, ragged and painful move. If I tried to get down into the tick level, it would take forever to work through the structure. It may well occur today, but let’s see. I’d like to see the EURUSD target I have provided. Most likely we’ll see a pullback and then a final low. It’s pretty much the same in GBPUSD.

Now for the tale of USDJPY. Did we see those micro mini percentages earlier on? Well, interestingly the rally we saw yesterday approached the Wave v at 74.3% - just 2 points to the (normal) Wave v. Ah! But then, with a 3-wave rally, we may have seen a Wave i. Life is a can of worms. We still have to consider both alternatives. 

Even USDCHF could just see further gains but there is still the risk of a deeper (blue) Wave -ii-… 

The Aussie saw losses but held above the 0.6864 low. Can it still move higher to form a zigzag or will it decide to break lower, or even an expanded flat. 

The only thing in EURJPY, as long as the lower degree development has been correct, we should see a new high – but then a pullback lower. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, May 21, 2019

SLOW GOING

It’s been a bit of a snore fest in EURUSD. I’m hoping that today will break below 1.1135 to then see a reversal. Please, please let that we shall begin to see a reversal higher. I’ve also had a slight difficulty in USDJPY. The pullback lower in from the 110.32 high is abnormally deep compared to the Wave ii. I tried to see if there was a possible triangle that would allow a shallower Wave iv. Maybe… Otherwise, the run-up to the high did have a valid projection target in the lower degree Wave c/iii but then the pullback in Wave iv was 1.4% and the Wave v 4.6%. That’s a bit crazy. However, let’s see if we do get a triangle.

USDCHF has formed a Wave -i- so we need to find the Wave -ii-. GBPUSD was as slow as EURUSD. I’m still battling with a potential new low – or just direct gains.

As for EURJPY, we have EURUSD moving lower and USDJPY higher but quite how the balance will play through is another issue… Ideally, we should head higher.

The whip back higher in AUDUSD has required an adjustment and that will allow a deeper pullback higher – but it could just see direct losses again… This pair is slightly difficult to really provide a definitive direction.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Friday, May 17, 2019

PUZZLES

The EURUSD is driving me mad. I’m sure that Jean-Claude Juncker drinks too much. I’m coming down to either a triangle or minor new low below 1.1135 to then see gains develop. Certainly, GBPUSD is close to a low for a deeper pullback. So I’m pretty certain we shall see Dollar losses in these two pairs.

This then has a second puzzle in USDCHF and USDJPY. However, these two pairs have seen 3-wave moves as the starter that could provide a complex correction. Therefore, we need to be aware, or a potential expanded flat lower. Otherwise, we could just see further gains…

Even EURJPY could be seeing a triangle already but at the end of the move higher will still be an expanded flat. 

The Aussie… What a shallow pullback in (cyan) Wave –b-. However, we should see a pullback … not too deep before further losses resume.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, May 16, 2019

IN THE LAND OF THE BLIND THERE’S A LONG AND WINDING SNORE…

Seriously, the EURUSD guys seem to have no idea what they’re doing. The meandering flow we have seen could have been much quicker. However, overall now, we just need a 3-wave rally. Once that is done we can get back to a stronger Dollar. Both USDJPY and USDCHF are building a platform. If there could be a risk, then it’s in USDCHF. It has formed a double zigzag so we’re going to need some care. If that is seen, then it could be a break lower today – or we’ll see a deeper rally and then a pullback. 

While these 3-majors have been flustering, GBPUSD has done the good deed – a pretty good decline. We should see some further losses but once the low is seen we could see a modestly deep pullback and perhaps this will then correlate with the 3 musketeers. 

With the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD there’s a chance we could see an expanded flat. Down under, the Aussie reached the (cyan) Wave -a-. Today should bring some gains now.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, May 14, 2019

THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD…

My goodness, this development has been a ragged set of moves. The triangle scenario has been obliterated. We’ve seen USDJPY and USDCHF form deeper losses, while EURUSD now needs a break 1.1265. Strangely enough, GBPUSD has taken the low road. Let's just say that we know that EURUSD needs a new high and GBPUSD a deeper pullback. We may need to see USDJPY and USDCHF see a limited break lower now. 

So we’re seeing a damn, deep, dirty development. However, once those highs are completed we’ll be looking to the Dollar upside. 

I have EURJPY as a Wave i and Wave ii. That tends to suggest that EURUSD will see an expanded flat but then a stronger rally while USDJPY I think has been seen but it may be best to place stops a little lower. 

The Aussie is now moving down to the (brown) Wave c/iii. With a deep Wave ii and a deep Wave b/iii, I doubt we’ll see a deep Wave iv…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



Monday, May 13, 2019

STILL LOOKING FOR A THE DOLLAR LEG HIGHER

Gee, this is a slow, slow development and I can’t see the stronger decline after the EURUSD triangle. On that point, EURUSD did make a new high but basically, we saw a 76.4% leg in the Wave ^C – so nothing to really worry about. So now we are moving back to the Wave ^D but how long this will need to reach there is probably difficult to judge. 

Having seen further losses in GBPUSD I’ve had to concede to the fact that the current low was the Wave -i-. The pullback has been limited. Perhaps it can be a shallow Wave -ii- at 38.6% but we’re going to need to be aware of any direct break lower.

USDJPY has formed the Wave i and Wave ii so we’re heading higher in the Wave a/iii. At the same time, USDCHF saw even deeper losses in the Wave iv but basically, the ratio was ok. So now we should see these two pairs rallying. 

The Aussie should be looking lower. EURJPY could be the difficult pair with a bullish USDJPY (but with swings) while EURUSD should see losses. Looks like a bit of a mess most likely.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Friday, May 10, 2019

FORECAST IN EURUSD FROM THE 7TH MAY



TARGET MET AT 1.1251



NOW FOR A DOLLAR UPSIDE LEG

EURUSD has completed the Wave ^C so now we have the pleasure of moving down to the Wave ^D. How long that will take? It all depends. The market hasn’t really shown too much energy so I’m not expecting a strong day – but let’s see. This should allow GBPUSD to see losses.

I think we have completed the downside in USDJPY. If not, then it will be down to an expanded flat that could provide a limited follow-through only. Overall, I would like to see a break above 110 to confirm further gains. At the same time as USDJPY saw its low, USDCHF followed also – but to a new low so we’re back at a minor break to form the Wave -iv-. So now we’re back to seeing a 3-wave rally in USDCHF…

Most likely, we have seen the low in EURJPY. We have a slow moving EURUSD but I suspect USDJPY will drag the cross higher. It doesn’t look like a strong day and could also see consolidations at times.

The Aussie – still losses…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, May 9, 2019

STILL IN A STALEMATE

It’s hardly a frenetic market and frankly that’s going to continue for a while. We now looking to complete the Wave ^c over today in EURUSD. At least it will then see a reversal lower but I’m not expecting robust development. USDJPY needs a pullback higher and later reversal. USDCHF appears to be heading northwards but I have some reservations. 

One pair actually made a break. That was GBPUSD in forming a Wave i. Guess what? We should see a Wave ii. That’s correlated with EURUSD in terms of the pullback. 

EURJPY is in rather a tangle. I feel it needs a limited pullback – and when I say limited, just by a few points. As long as the 123.10 level doesn’t break we should head higher – and frankly USDJPY should drive that higher. 

The Aussie has been seeing some losses and should follow-through…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, May 8, 2019

STILL LIMITED RANGES

I’m still looking at EURUSD and the (most likely) potential for a triangle. This should see a pullback higher but then a deeper decline, but not too deep. To compare with GBPUSD, we may have seen a low yesterday but I have a sneaky feeling that we may just see a limited new low to see a pullback higher. The Swissie … I’d like to see it rallying but there is the potential for an expanded flat lower before any stronger gains. Just note the 1.0241 level as pivotal.

Even losses have been seen in USDJPY and frankly, it looks like we’re going to see an expanded flat – a new low for a reversal back higher. 

I’m wary in EURJPY. It could be considered a final low. Alternatively, we could just see an expanded flat and later a new low… That will need some care between EURUSD and USDJPY. As mentioned above, we should see USDJPY making a new low while EURUSD needs a pullback higher… 

The Aussie should see a pullback higher and then lower…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, May 7, 2019

IT LOOKS LIKE A SIDEWAYS DAY

I noted last week that there was a clear break at 1.1206 in EURUSD. Well, after fumbling lower it did break above. We have two alternatives: a triangle or a new high above the (purple) Wave -b-. Most likely it will just see a minor follow-through before reversing. I tend to favour the triangle scenario. This could allow GBPUSD to see a second zigzag higher – or just a correction higher. Clearly, this could trigger a consolidation in USDCHF but we still need to reach some upside targets. At least, that’s the potential.

Yesterday’s drop in USDJPY was reversed and in a 5-wave move. Therefore, we should be seeing a pullback lower which tends to correlate with EURUSD and GBPUSD. Now if I move to the EURUSD and USDJPY it suggests a potential sideways move in EURJPY – but may just reach a little higher first.

Given the limited range day, the Aussie should see a pullback higher before later losses.

Don’t snore too much…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Monday, May 6, 2019

SOME ADJUSTMENTS – BUT OVERALL A BULLISH DOLLAR

The start of the week was not quite as I had envisioned, particularly the break lower in USDJPY. This has generated some problems but in the early stages in the Asian centres, we are likely to see a little bit higher in the Dollar and then a final Dollar low. This should see GBPUSD making a new high while USDJPY needs a “bit up” and a “bit down” before we begin to see stronger gains. 

I was very wary about EURUSD as I worked through the development over the weekend because Friday’s high was just 1 pip below the extreme. This needs to remain capping to then see losses resume. That we have seen so many broad swings has been really difficult to work through. If there is a break above the upside limit then it’s going to be a little rough.

USDCHF has been rather slow – but seeing a pullback lower and today it should move back higher to the targets I have suggested. 

EURJPY… well, that’s another tale of a 5-wave move. At the start of the move, we shall always see a 5-wave move. So what if it’s a single bar? Then we’d have to go down to the 1-minute bars. Ideally, we should go down to the tick level but at that stage, it takes a long time to work through it all. I hate that issue… So that has occurred here and will still need losses by the end of the day. 

The Aussie… Guess what, from Friday’s high we saw a gap lower and a pullback. It could form an expanded flat higher or just a pullback for further losses. Either way, it’s going lower…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, May 2, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 1.0126



WE SHOULD NOW FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

My goodness… the development from the 1.1327 high was a one in a thousand. It had me tricked all the way through. Clearly, I now can see the strong 5-wave decline and the very deep pullback. At least, we can get on with the (purple) Wave -iii- and onwards. This should carry GBPUSD lower also. I am allowing for a final high in GBPUSD but overall, we should now be seeing a 5-wave decline that should roughly see the low around the time EURUSD finds its low. That should, at least, see a deep pullback but that’s a story for another month – or more.

Having seen a triple three that finally stalled at the 86% retracement, USDJPY should now begin to form the Wave i and Wave ii. That should take up much of today. This should provide a balance between EURUSD and USDJPY in EURJPY on the downside but it looks a rather ragged development. Most likely EURUSD will see a stronger decline compared to USDJPY.

I provided two options in USDCHF – a shallow pullback and a deep Wave b/v or a pullback that should reach around 1.0135. It reached 1.0126. So now we have the pleasure in working through the 3-wave rally.

The Aussie… Down a bit and we should see a pullback higher and then for some solid losses to compare with EURUSD…

Good trading
Ian Copsey