Monday, April 29, 2019

SLOW DEVELOPMENT - THE NEXT BIT IS TRICKY

Where do I start? The market has been somnambulistic. I had hoped to see firmer Dollar gains. AT least, we should see the (purple) Wave –iii- today and hopefully the Wave –v- but that Wave –v- needs to see a 76.4% projection to reach the (cyan) Wave [iii]. The Wave [v] can be stubby. This tends to suggest that GBPUSD will likely see a final Wave –v- but it has the potential for a strong Wave –v-… 

In USDCHF, I had to re-adjust the levels to a stronger Wave iii. So we’re moving up towards the (blue) Wave –c-/-iii-. That will need a pullback and then a new high. This tends to match with EURUSD and GBPUSD. 

As for USDJPY… well, this could be tricky because we have the Golden Week holiday and this year, due to the new emperor, they’d added an extra few days. This makes life rather difficult to judge the market – but likely a rather ragged development. I’m really not too sure what will happen – perhaps a complex correction for a while?

This could then impact on EURJPY. This should see losses in EURUSD but I tend to feel that we should see USDJPY moving higher but quite how the balance will be is rather an unknown and if I have my count correct, then we have a limited downside here.

The Aussie has seen the (brown) Wave [a]/[iii] and a rally. The question here is “just how deep will the pullback higher be?”

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, April 26, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.6988


EVEN CLOSER TO A REVERSAL…

The development, for some while, has been rather slow and cautious. I’d like to see the end of these Dollar gains but in EURUSD I suspect a slightly lower decline compared to GBPUSD. Having said that, in GBPUSD, the Wave –c-/-v- has THE potential for a firm decline so we have to take care. Alternatively, we could just see a stubby Wave –v-. Certainly, momentum is slowing and bullish divergences are beginning to develop but we do need losses still. Equally, we should see gains in USDCHF but I can’t see a strong push higher.

USDJPY… Oh, apparently the (navy) Wave iii was at 112.18 and not 112.09. Both were valid targets but clearly, I screwed that up. So now we have a (green) Wave –a- at 112.40… I’d like to think that we have seen the Wave –b- also but this will need some care.

EURJPY can see further losses but watch for bullish reversal indications – most likely USDJPY could provide the potential for a reversal higher. Finally, we have seen the (cyan) Wave –iii- and we have either seen the high – or just a little high. Overall, this will need a 3-wave decline to form the Wave –v- and thus a (brown) Wave [b]/[iii].

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, April 25, 2019

CLOSE TO A REVERSAL

Apart from USDJPY, we should see some limited swings. We’re close to the expansion level in EURUSD that will take us back higher while USDCHF needs a rally and reversal. GBPUSD – well, I realised that we had a puny (purple) Wave v that reached the (brown) Wave -iii- and Wave -iv- and should soon see the Wave -a-/-v-. I think you know the rest… Basically, we need swings but not too strong. 

I think we can work with USDJPY in a correction lower – to then see gains resume. In EURJPY, we have reached the Wave -iii- so even that needs a 3-wave decline to complete a Wave [a]. 

Down under, we’re close to reaching the (cyan) Wave -iii- but we’re beginning to see bullish divergences – thus take care. Ideally, we need a move down towards 0.6847.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, April 24, 2019

I SENSE SOME SWINGS

The pairs are getting out of balance. Yesterday’s losses in EURUSD were in a 5-wave and that it rather strange because GBPUSD has only a 3-wave decline – and that’s the Wave v. I took a look at the (cyan) [a] and Wave [b] and realised that we had a 3-wave rally. I still feel that EURUSD will see losses but should be in a final zigzag. That should match the Wave –iii-, -iv- and Wave –v-.

This will need an expanded flat higher in EURUSD. USDJPY – we have seen a double zigzag. Will we see a triple three – or just a break above 112.14? We are also looking to the upside in USDCHF but this will need a deeper correction. 

The Aussie has formed the (cyan) Wave a and that will then require a deeper correction…

As for EURJPY, well… it could be tricky. Most likely dips in EURUSD but USDJPY has the option of either direct gains or a final zigzag lower.

Take care today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, April 23, 2019

EARLY SWINGS TO BE FOLLOWED BY DOLLAR GAINS

So we saw most of a triangle in USDJPY but should losses. How deep the 5-wave decline will be is just not possible to forecast but once it’s done I feel that we should be looking back to the upside. EURUSD dipped and rallied. We should then be looking for a bearish reversal lower to see further losses. USDCHF is close to finding a temporary high – but needs a modestly deep pullback in a Wave iv. GBPUSD is closing in on the (purple) Wave iii. Therefore, we’ll be looking for the Wave iv and then for the Wave v to reach the (brown) Wave -iii-. 

EURJPY saw an expanded flat - so we should be heading lower. Indeed, it could be quite a firm decline with USDJPY expected to see losses while EURUSD could slow things down but by the end of the day, losses should resume.

The Aussie should continue the downside but just keep in mind the potential for an expanded flat higher. Therefore, take things carefully and be aware of the two alternatives.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, April 22, 2019

MOST LIKELY A LIMITED RANGE DAY

Let’s face it. Today is one of those days that will be pretty damn quiet. The vast majority of the market will be closed with the exception of the States but even then, with very low liquidity, even the good old U.S. of A will probably pretty quiet too. 

From my perspective, I suspect we’ll see a pullback lower in USDJPY, a pullback higher in EURUSD, possibly a complex correction in USDCHF – or maybe just limited gains and for GBPUSD limited losses. Down under, needs a pullback higher.

EURJPY is more likely to see a dip lower, courtesy of USDJPY…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, April 17, 2019

EARLY DOLLAR LOSSES – LATER GAINS

We’re beginning to see some decent development but pretty slowly. At the start of the day on Asia, the predominant outlook is for a bearish pullback lower in the Dollar. Whether that still allows a final zigzag is under scrutiny. It may just see a correction higher. That is the main theme across most of the pairs – USDCHF should see a correction lower and GBPUSD should see a correction higher. Once those corrections have been completed we should move back to the Dollar upside.

USDJPY is just one point below the current high. Take your pick. Either it breaks higher – or sees a new low. To be honest, I feel that we could just see one more drop before the Dollar rally resumes. Bringing in EURJPY, the balance between the potential rally in EURUSD and a bearish USDJPY, we should see some sort of consolidation. 

AUDUSD… it hasn’t got much upside … therefore expect losses again today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, April 16, 2019

SLEEPY HOLLOW

I wasn’t really expecting too much yesterday but it turned out to be an underwhelming day. 

EURUSD just couldn’t decide what to do. So basically, the outlook I had hoped for may develop today. Either it’s a break above 1.1327 or a break of 1.1230. If the former, then it’ll complete a triple three and then it’ll go lower. I’m still looking for losses in USDJPY after a day of the sleepy hollow. 

USDCHF managed to form a Wave I so now we need a pullback – and that may suggest that EURUSD will see a new high. Equally, the comments I gave yesterday in GBPUSD remain. I just have a doubt in my mind that we could see a new high before losses resume. Otherwise, we’ll just see a direct decline.

The Aussie was equally slumberous and soporific but should now go lower.

As for EURJPY, well we did see a 1 point high that could imply an expanded flat – but really? Just 1 point? It’s possible but I’m not sure I’ve seen a single point to complete an expanded flat…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 15, 2019

A SLOW START - BUT LATER LOOKING TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

I spent some time over the weekend to clarify a few of the pairs. The very clear problem I have had is in GBPUSD. The structure I had been using had a Wave -iii- was out of range. I’m still somewhat unsure, but I feel the only outcome was a triangle but the first 3-wave rally is rather difficult. Having said that, it tends to fall into balance with the other pairs. I was expecting a pullback lower in the Dollar – and that has been seen. Ideally, the 1.3133 high should not break but there is a risk of an overlapping rally. Once that is seen, then this will tend to blend into the (most likely) 3-wave rally to complete a triple three. 

Equally, USDJPY has seen a Wave -a-/-iii- so we should see losses while USDCHF has the potential for a new (probably) minor break below 0.9998. So overall, the start of the day looks like a corrective development. 

The Aussie saw a new high. There’s even a risk of a higher high but not above the (brown) Wave -ii- so overall, later in the day, we should be heading lower again.

Finally, in EURJPY, it seems that we are seeing the final legs of an expanded flat.

Hopefully, by the end of the day, we should be heading back higher in the Dollar.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, April 11, 2019

A BIT OF A MISH-MASH

I’m still quite astonished by the recent developments. Even EURUSD managed a minor new high – once again. In fact, it is highly unusual. From there we have seen a 5-wave decline and a pullback so we should be heading lower again. The strange thing is that this will mean that USDCHF is likely to have seen a high – maybe a minor new high. The pullback in USDJPY was short lived so should be heading lower – and that will delight any fans of EURJPY once USDJPY completes its pullback. So, over the day we seem to be looking for losses in three of the majors.

So what of GBPUSD? I’m beginning to think that we’re going to see the final “zag”. Certainly, it doesn’t seem to have a structure to see new lows at this stage. No doubt Mrs May will be happy with her continued rambling incompetence… So once EURUSD has found a low, we should see corrections higher in these two pairs.

The Aussie… Damn, I messed that up. Yet another rally and that took some time to work out what happened. Well, that is a final zigzag. I think it’s done – but allow for a marginal new high. Therefore, we should be looking for losses.

Back to EURJPY… We have seen a 5-wave decline and is now pondering in a pullback but over the day, particularly when USDJPY sees losses develop. If seen with the expected losses in EURUSD, it’s likely to see some decent losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, April 10, 2019

GUESS WHAT… WE’RE STILL LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

I have been rather frustrated over the past few days. Normally, the Wave iv has a balance depending on the Wave ii although there are options when alternation will skew the depth of the Wave iv. These past few days have tended to reach targets, then edges higher again. However, I feel that we should now see these Wave v’s begin to develop. We have these situations in EURUSD and USDCHF. As USDJPY reached it’s low, we should now see a pullback higher. 

Now, coming to GBPUSD… What a mess. I am struggling to work out whether we shall see a break below 1.2978 or a stronger rally to complete a triple three. I’d just suggest waiting to confirm which option should develop…

The Aussie went into overdrive. I had thought we had already satisfied the expanded flat but instead, we had a double whammy – it actually saw a higher high due to a deep Wave b/iii. So now we should be seeing losses – but could still see a pullback before deeper losses.

I was looking carefully in EURJPY also – wondering whether it would break the highs. Thankfully, it didn’t and we are now working through the downside now… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 8, 2019

STILL MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH

It has been a darn slow market for a few days and I can’t see that it’s going to change in the immediate few days. Very clearly, the market doesn’t seem to like the current political outlook at this time. However, I do still feel that we shall still see the Dollar pushing higher – but without too much confidence. If there is any pair that could break the Dollar rally, then it’s in USDJPY. Even then, as far as I can see, there is little more room on the topside with bearish divergences forming.

The European currencies are lacklustre although GBPUSD has been quite firm on the downside with both hourly & 4-hour momentum still in place. The key level that will confirm deeper losses is down at 1.2978 – and that should be easy to break. 

There’s also a good chance of seeing EURJPY moving lower. USDJPY doesn’t seem to have much upside but there is more risk on the downside in EURUSD.

As for the Antipodean, limited upside and more likely to see losses.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, April 5, 2019

WE’RE STILL IN A TRICKY DEVELOPMENT

Starting with EURUSD, we have confirmed alternation – but only by the skin of its teeth. I can’t rule out a second zigzag higher but neither can I confidently say it will just continue to move lower. I suspect it will, but we have to still be on our guard. USDJPY is still creeping higher but still within the boundaries – only the alternative structure could see a move higher – maybe above 111.79. However, if it does, then I suspect we’ll probably see a bearish divergence to push it back down. 

I’d like to see USDCHF move higher to reach the (navy) Wave iii and onwards. The only risk is an initial pullback but then we’ll see the (navy) Wave iii onwards. Once the Wave v has been established it will form the (blue) Wave a/iii…

GBPUSD did see a 5-wave rally. We’re still in a duality here also. With the 5-wave rally, it could either be a Wave ii; or a Wave [a]. This can see a pullback higher for losses below the Wave [x] or it will hold above the Wave [x] and then see a new Wave [c] above 1.3382 to form a triple three. 

Even AUDUSD is messing about. I was expecting an expanded flat but it is now rather complicated. There is the risk that the decline from 0.7133 was a Wave i and the pullback in Wave ii. If so, then we’re going to be looking for deeper losses in the Wave -a-. Otherwise, if we do see the expanded flat we can then look for losses.

EURJPY… I find this pair rather difficult. The crosses can be rather difficult to judge. We haven’t seen a bearish divergence and I’ve an idea that we may just see one more high before the reversal. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, April 4, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF




TARGET MET AT 0.9953


TUESDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 125.47



LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS TO RESUME

There are still maybe some minor risks of an initial Dollar dip in the early stages but this should soon turn around. However, not all of the pairs are in sync. EURUSD may see a minor new high for losses down to reach the Wave v. At the same time, we are likely to also see USDJPY reverse lower. With both of these pairs declining together, EURJPY looks like a pretty good outcome.

With EURUSD moving lower, USDCHF should be heading higher and over today and probably tomorrow, to form the (blue) Wave a/iii. 

The key puzzle now is down to GBPUSD. I’m pretty cautious now in this pair. After week’s break, it’s very difficult to go into every corner to process a large amount of data. I am looking at a potential new high and reversal to copy EURUSD. This is going to be a rather difficult development now due to the need for Dollar gains – but then a deeper pullback. It may be best to stand back in this pair just to get a stronger idea of what the Pound will do.

Finally, we still need a new high in AUDUSD to complete an expanded flat. Once seen, the downside can resume…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, April 3, 2019

MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1184



SOME PUZZLES TO BE SOLVED

So… we have reached the Wave -iii- in EURUSD. So far we haven’t seen alternation. Options are a deep-ish pullback or a deep Wave b/v. This was quite an easy puzzle. In USDJPY, we may still have a little higher to go but that has a finite Wave v so that can also be resolved. 

Having seen a break above 0.9997 in USDCHF, I have had to take an alternative look at the structures. There’s a limited downside but overall it should later see a firmer rally. 

GBPUSD… well, caution… Having seen an expanded flat and a move lower we have suddenly seen a deep pullback to just below the (purple) Wave b. As long as this sees losses we should be good to go. Anywhere above 1.3150 would look bullish.

Hmmm… with USDJPY having limited upside and EURUSD potentially rallying, there’s a chance we shall see a consolidation. Just take note of the 124.14 low…

I’m rather cautious with AUDUSD. I could just say that we have seen the (purple) Wave -a-/-iii- but somehow I have some doubts in the bearish structure. Therefore, we should be aware of alternatives.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 1, 2019

PREDOMINANTLY DOLLAR GAINS

I was overseeing the development during the week’s break. Even then, I’d suggest taking care because I really didn’t have enough time to do a thorough analysis. As far as I can see, we are still looking at a bullish Dollar but with the caveat that we really only have a modest follow-through over today – and maybe into tomorrow. 

We should see a Wave v soon in USDJPY for a pullback. How deep the pullback will be is not really known but most likely fairly deep. In EURUSD we are close to a Wave -iii-. However, we haven’t yet seen alternation and that tends to suggest a deep Wave –b-/-v-. That tends to suggest a rather limited range day. Strangely, in USDCHF, we’re seeing a decline but perhaps, as this pair can slow down we may just see this through. In GBPUSD, we’re looking to find the (brown) Wave c/iii and onwards – but clearly to complete the Wave v and thus a Wave [a] for a pullback.

EURJPY has completed a Wave (a)/(iii) and followed by a limited pullback. However, it tends to suggest a rather limited correction. 

The Aussie has formed a Wave -i- and therefore we should be looking for bearish reversal indications in Wave -ii-. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey