Friday, March 22, 2019

PLEASE NOTE THAT I SHALL BE ON A WEEK'S BREAK

I'LL BE BACK ON APRIL FOOL'S DAY...

REVERSAL AND REVERSAL AND REVERSAL

So… We may have seen the low in USDJPY after a zigzag lower but we may need to see a double zigzag. I say this because of the deep Wave iv in EURUSD that now needs to see a new high. As for USDCHF, well, it has its own way of developing and needs a final 3-wave decline but this pair can go SO slow that it could work. Once we have formed the final Dollar lows we can get back to the Dollar upside. Having said that, even then, we shall need the bullish foundation waves to develop before we can really get going on the larger daily Dollar rally. 

GBPUSD has decided to take its own journey. So far we have reached the 1.3003 and now looking to see a reversal lower. If there is any risk, then it could be a triangle. At the same time, having seen a bullish double zigzag, we still have the option on a triple three. Therefore, do take care.

With EURUSD looking to the upside and an uncertain USDJPY, we should see a pullback higher in a Wave ii.

Finally, the Aussie needs a pullback but has a limit at 0.7156 but I suspect this will not be broken…Thus, watch for bearish reversal indications.

I’ll be back on the 1stApril… (No kidding!)
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, March 21, 2019

REVERSAL AND REVERSAL

Everything was looking hunky dory and by the time I slept, it was still fine. Then, when I awoke around the early hours of the morning I had a shock. EURUSD was rocking higher, USDCHF lower – and also USDJPY. However, these three pairs have only seen the Wave iii but should see some modest pullbacks to then see a final low. Basically, EURUSD and USDCHF are seeing expanded flats and these need a pullback and then a new high.

In USDJPY, the 112.14 high was the (blue) Wave [a] and we have seen a Wave iii, potential Wave iv and then for a Wave v to complete the pullback in the Wave [b]/[iii].

Meanwhile, GBPUSD was the most placid pair. Perhaps it woke up after the other pairs had gone haywire. Maybe it was me that provided the sleeping tablet and woke up just after the other pairs had completed the Wave [iii]’s. There’s still a risk of a slightly deeper Wave b/iii but as long as it holds below 1.3300.

It looks as if we have formed a triple three in AUDUSD. I’d suggest providing a slightly high level but overall, we should be heading lower once again. 

EURJPY did see further gains as I had considered. We’ve either seen the high but I suspect just one more high to then see losses resume.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, March 20, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9984



REVERSAL

Done and dusted. Well, I have some doubts over EURUSD but the 1.1385-93 area is possible and the 1.1404 is the limit. USDJPY has already begun the upside along with USDCHF. It looks most likely that GBPUSD is going to see losses – and over time I suspect it’s going back below the (blue) Wave [x]. Well, that will be the key level that will imply further losses.

So far, in USDJPY, we have seen the lower degree Wave i and Wave ii that will then build the Wave a/iii, Wave b/iii and onwards. EURUSD I feel has found a high – but note the comment above. USDCHF has reached a Wave a – having seen the final low while GBPUSD should be heading lower. 

I was puzzled with AUDUSD but then I spotted the lower degree Wave i and onwards to reach the Wave v – so even the Aussie appears to look for losses. However, having seen a double zigzag – and the slowness that this pair can see, I’d still be cautious of a triple three – but it ain’t gonna happen today I feel.

With EURUSD looking to the downside and USDJPY on the upside we’ll have a battle to see which pair makes the stronger move. I fancy the downside – but take care.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, March 19, 2019

WE STILL NEED CAUTION

We sure have seen some difficult development and I’m pretty certain that this may continue. Some pairs are in corrections while others are slowly going through impulsive development. I still feel that we are going through an expanded flat in EURUSD but – at some point – it’ll need a deeper pullback lower. USDJPY may now have formed the (blue) Wave -b-/-iii- although there is still some room below. It’s possible because USDCHF still needs limited downside now for a reversal higher. 

The biggest pain was in AUDUSD that broke above the limit I had set. It still has upside potential but by the end of this rally, we should turn lower. 

EURJPY is a tricky one. Perhaps we have seen a triple three but that will need a break below 126.12. Until that break, there is a chance of a 5-wave rally. Once that has been formed (or that 126.12 break) we’ll have a stronger decline.

Still, take care. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, March 18, 2019

A DIFFICULT START TO THE WEEK

Over the weekend I went through the analysis and it looks like a rather difficult start to the week. First of all, in GBPUSD, I took an alternative look at the structure from the 1.3000 low. Lo and behold, I used a limited Wave i and Wave ii and worked through to the 1.3385 high to complete a 5-wave rally to complete a double zigzag from the 1.2440 low – or a zigzag that could be a lower degree Wave i. It’s possible because EURUSD appears to be looking to complete a 5-wave rally and followed by a pullback and a final 5-wave rally to complete a triple three. The alternative is a potential expanded flat. 

Hence the heading being a difficult start to the week…

USDJPY has potential for a deeper Wave -b-/-iii- or a direct move up to the Wave -iii- and upwards. USDCHF is pretty much the same as USDJPY. It has potential for both sides of the market. 

In the down-under pair, it appears to have a more direct decline. 

As for the Cross, EURJPY has broken below the rising channel. With EURUSD potentially having two options, it’s rather difficult to judge the early stages. Equally, we have a possible limited pullback lower in USDJPY – or a direct rally as mentioned above. 

It looks like a tricky day. Take care.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, March 15, 2019

SLOW DEVELOPMENT – EARLY DOLLAR GAINS AND A REVERSAL HIGHER

Very clearly there is some uncertainty within the Brexit arena it’s just too risky to try and trigger a stronger development and with the structures we have, it certainly looks like a couple days of consolidation. Having said that, it will be a bit whippy at some time. Basically, I’m looking for Dollar gains and followed by a deeper reversal back to the downside with GBPUSD most likely to see new highs – also EURUSD to new highs but not above 1.1404.

USDJPY looks like seeing a pullback lower but which will then require further gains. By the slow development in this pair, this could take a day or two to get back to the upside. USDCHF has plenty of time to form zigzags and that’ll finally find a low for a reversal higher. 

The Aussie has formed a Wave i and now it’s a case of how deep the Wave ii will be, followed by losses. EURJPY has tricked me and is now in a Wave (ii). I think we have seen the high and is now looking to break below the rising channel. 

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, March 13, 2019

A MIXED BAG BUT WE SHOULD LATER SEE DOLLAR GAINS

I think the highlight of yesterday’s development was in GBPUSD, whipping higher and then a heavy decline – and that was just a Wave (a)… We shall need to be cautious with this pair but overall it’s got all the hallmarks of strong volatility. 

Otherwise, EURUSD should be heading higher, USDCHF lower while USDJPY still needs gains. Indeed, USDJPY has taken a long and winding road to the upside and I can’t expect a sudden rush. Most likely this development could take us over the rest of the week – perhaps into next week. 

With EURUSD looking to the upside – along with USDJPY – we can expect further gains in EURJPY but there is a finite limit. There are also signs of the potential bearish divergences in the cross. 

I have had a difficult time with AUDUSD but – I think – I have resolved this. It has a pretty strong hourly bearish divergence and while noting the limit, overall I’m looking for losses to resume.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, March 12, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGETS MET AT 1.2960 AND 1.3015-30 (AS FIRST REVERSAL TARGETS)





WE STILL NEED FURTHER DOLLAR LOSSES

With the exception of AUDUSD – perhaps USDJPY also, we have seen some decent Dollar losses but there is more to go. I may even suggest that we could complete the downside today. EURUSD has managed to form a single zigzag. There may be a risk of a minor new decline before the upside develops – but just a direct rally will also do the trick. GBPUSD saw the lows I expected and from there it zoomed back higher to form a zigzag and a pullback in Wave x and then a Wave a. This does have the potential for early losses before the rally resume. 

USDCHF has completed the (cyan) Wave [b] so we should be heading lower again. USDJPY has the potential for a deeper pullback – or just direct gains that should be the basic trend.

An interesting pair – EURJPY – has seen a double zigzag and a potential second Wave x so we only need a final zigzag higher. This could provide the reversal through the range of pairs…

I am a little uncertain in AUDUSD. I can’t get my head around the structure because it still seems to be looking for losses while the other majors are looking to the Dollar downside… I’d suggest taking care in this pair. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, March 11, 2019

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 124.27





REVERSAL LOWER IN THE DOLLAR

We appear to have seen the Dollar reverse back to the downside. There is one exception and that’s the contrarian USDJPY – but that has been known for a while. There is a risk of one more drop to a marginal new low but overall it should be looking to the Dollar upside. However, I can’t see a strong rally because we need the bullish foundation waves to develop. 

Other than that, EURUSD has turned higher. We may need a marginal new low in GBPUSD. USDCHF may well need a final 3-wave decline before heading back higher. However, in this development, we’re looking at corrective behaviour and that is always the more difficult outcome. There can be some pretty awful complications at times – but at the same time – both EURUSD and GBPUSD are looking at a Wave -ii- that could have the potential for a deep Wave -ii-, USDCHF and USDJPY are more likely to have a limited range so it’s going to be a difficult corrective development.

The Aussie seems to still need losses but later for a correction higher. In EURJPY, perhaps we have a clue for the depth of the correction in the majors with limited gains in USDJPY (most likely) while EURUSD should provide a decent push higher but in the cross it seems to have a modestly limited pullback.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Friday, March 8, 2019

LOOKING TO SEE A REVERSAL LOWER IN THE DOLLAR

My day obviously takes up a lot of time working out the development, basically from my base in Asia that provides a launching pad for the development, whether bullish or bearish. Sometimes it’s a slow day but yesterday – in EURUSD and USDCHF in particular – there was a rush higher in the Dollar. It makes sense considering the range of different structures. However, USDJPY made its rally earlier and is now seeing a decline but should soon see gains. Somehow, this seems counter-intuitive. However, it’s still part of the market but once we have seen the Dollar highs it tends to suggest a Dollar rally. Well, I’ll go with this anyway… So, excluding USDJPY, we need a limited follow-through in the Dollar for a reversal that should be modestly firm. 

Even AUDUSD has been seeing losses but we’re close to a reversal, similar to the 4-majors minus USDJPY.

With the collapse in EURUSD and USDJPY we saw a jolly decline in EURJPY but even then, we’re close to a reversal back higher for a correction by the end of the day.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, March 7, 2019

STILL LOOKING ON THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

I’ve noted that, at least in the hourly markets, we are seeing limited Wave ii’s and Wave b/iii’s. I sense that we’re going to see further gains but at some point, we’re gonna need a deep pullback in a Wave b/iii or deep Wave ii. When that will occur is rather uncertain…

We’ve just seen USDJPY form a relatively shallow Wave (b). It actually makes sense because EURUSD and GBPUSD are still looking to the downside while USDCHF (that also saw a shallow Wave –b-/-iii-) so we should be still looking for stronger gains in the Dollar. 

Even the Aussie managed to see losses – although slow and ragged and this should continue. 

So with a bullish USDJPY and a bearish EURUSD, I tend to suggest a rather sideways move in EURJPY. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, March 6, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3098



MIX AND MATCH

On the whole, we are still on the right track – or more likely several tracks. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD are still looking to the downside but EURUSD has been more penetrating compared to the jolly old Pound. We should see these two pairs looking lower still. USDJPY has been seeing a mini-rally and followed by a pullback. However, that will suggest further gains developing. We have also seen USDCHF find a high for a pullback – but one that should see a deeper correction lower.

The Aussie was basically a pain in the backside, scrambling one way, then the other. It seems to me that we shall see an expanded flat.

EURJPY – a decent decline to form a Wave i so we’ll need a pullback and later losses… I suspect that once it has completed the second 5-wave decline we’ll see a pullback once EURUSD has reached its low…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, March 4, 2019

A RISK OF EARLY SWINGS

We’re beginning to see the light of day but the balance between the pairs is rather rough and ready. We have seen the final rally in USDJPY for a pullback while EURUSD and USDCHF could see some swings. I’d suggest taking care but we are relatively close to a stronger Dollar rally. In GBPUSD, we should see a pullback and deeper losses. At some point, probably more towards the U.S. session – or even into tomorrow – we should be looking for Dollar gains for a stronger follow-through. Very much depends on the corrective development. 

I had thought we’d reached the high in EURJPY. I think we should allow for a final push higher – perhaps a quick rally in USDJPY that could provide the reversal. Overall, the cross will soon begin to turn back lower.

As I mentioned with the risk of early swings, AUDUSD needs a pullback higher and a reversal back to the downside. 

Best keep short trades for the moment until the Dollar can begin to see a stronger rally.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, March 1, 2019

MESSY – BUT STRONGER DOLLAR GAINS NOW

Yesterday was a messy old day – rather strange to me. EURUSD and USDCHF both formed 76.4% and 64% projections respectively in their Wave v’s. I was rather shocked with the 76.4% high in EURUSD because it was the last leg of an expanded flat. Crazy… USDJPY finally took the sky. However, we don’t seem to have very much upside so watch for a bearish reversal.

Meanwhile, GBPUSD took the day as a sloppy, slow and ragged development. We have limited room on the upside but stronger losses now on the downside that will need two wave degrees to work with. At this stage, it’s rather difficult to judge targets so we’ll have to work through the lower degree and then the higher degree developments. Clearly, this could provide some deep-ish pullbacks. 

That EURUSD decided to form a 76.4% projection in Wave v, along with the gains in USDJPY, it allowed EURJPY to see a deeper Wave v. Tiresome, but we should be looking to the downside now. 

As far as the Aussie, it knew it had to go lower and we’re still on the downside track but not for too long to reach the 0.7070-53 area – but then take care.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey