Tuesday, February 19, 2019

A SLOW START – LATER DOLLAR GAINS

It was hardly surprising that the market went on strike. It always does on U.S. holidays. However, the general expectation I had was for pullback lower in the Dollar. Having seen EURUSD make a new low the high risk will be for an expanded flat – and this hasn’t yet completed. This should see the other USDJPY and USDCHF completing a 5-wave decline that should last into the European session at the very least and more likely into the U.S. market. 

I’m slightly concerned about GBPUSD. The balance of the structure suggests a limited upside and later further losses - but there’s a wider range to be seen in the other 3 Majors. This will need some care but at the end of the day, we should be looking more towards the Dollar upside. 

The Aussie has completed a zigzag higher. Can it form a double zigzag or just a direct decline? It has been a slow-moving development but just take care. 

As for EURJPY, we have seen a double zigzag higher – Note the Wave x that will send price lower – or a final zigzag to form a triple three.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Friday, February 15, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 111.14





A SHALLOW PULLBACK OR AN EXPANDED FLAT?

That’s the case for EURUSD. With GBPUSD breaking below its own expanded flat this has now formed a (lower degree) Wave i and therefore should see a pullback in Wave ii. With the final high in USDJPY in a pretty strong Wave -i- it tends to suggest that we shall see Dollar losses today – but relatively limited to (most likely) the expanded flat in EURUSD. Ideally, both USDJPY and USDCHF should see losses. Ideally, USDCHF should decline to the current Wave a. 

So basically, we are not looking at a massive pullback in the Dollar but a relatively limited correction. From there it tends to suggest fireworks and it’s not even November the 5th

The Aussie should see a pullback, rather like the Majors but then to turn back lower.

EURJPY, which I have been rather reluctant to commit, should see losses once EURUSD tops out…

Have a great (long) weekend
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, February 14, 2019

FORECAST FOR EURJPY FROM THE 11TH FEBRUARY



TARGET MET AT 125.54


A SECOND PULLBACK?

In a correction there are plenty of options. I’m looking at a deeper expanded flat in GBPUSD. There is a risk too, in EURUSD but should be limited. If USDCHF breaks above its highs and reverses this should form a flat or expanded flat lower. USDJPY should be finding a high very soon to see a pullback. 

So I tend to suspect that we shall be heading lower in the Dollar again today.

Having measured the rally from the low in AUDUSD I noted that we had seen a 5-wave and therefore it should be heading back higher again. 

As for EURJPY, I’ve not really caught this particularly well, mainly down to the uncertainty of the balance between the two underlying pairs. Frankly, this development does look like a ragged range day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, February 13, 2019

AT LAST, THE PULLBACK

Goodness gracious… The Dollar gains were pretty persistent. USDJPY saw a Wave v at the 76.4% projection while EURUSD only managed a 50% projection in the Wave v. That took USDCHF higher to almost reach the high – but just 7 points below. As for the final Major, GBPUSD saw a 14.6% expansion at the low and therefore we should be heading lower in the Dollar now. 

So, the basic outlook is Dollar bearish but I feel this will be a relatively limited correction due to GBPUSD. The only possible problem is that sometimes the follow-through is slightly stronger. What we shall need to look for is the Wave iii and where it falls. We also have a 30% Wave ii and that tends to suggest a Wave iv of over 50% - but perhaps it can see a 76.4% projection in Wave v. So, keep track of this pair because it should provide us with a reversal.

Most likely we’ll see EURJPY extending gains – but now with the balance between a bearish USDJPY and bullish EURUSD, it may provide a consolidation for a while. 

The Aussie should see further gains but difficult to judge how high the Wave -b- will be. It also has its own way of doing things so we have to take care. However, we should see gains today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, February 12, 2019

FORECAST FOR USDJPY FROM THE 5TH FEBRUARY



TARGET MET AT 110.54





YESTERDAY PROVIDED SOME TRICKY DOLLAR GAINS

Yes, with the limited Wave a/b within a long and direct development it was a very tricky move. However, we are seeing the last legs in one or two pairs so we're looking at a reversal back to the Dollar upside. 

So, let’s say that we should be heading back to the Dollar downside. However, with the particularly long Wave [i] in EURUSD it’s difficult to judge the Wave [ii] – but having said that, GBPUSD made a new low but appears to then need a pullback higher in an expanded flat… This may provide a clue as to the upside limit. Even then, we have recently seen GBPUSD in sideways consolidations so we’ll have to be aware of the other pairs that will clearly need to see a weak Dollar. 

Overall, USDJPY has found its high and we confirmed the high in USDCHF. Thus, we should be looking for losses. EURJPY will likely push higher but with USDJPY bearish and EURUSD bullish it doesn’t seem like the cross will get very far. 

The Aussie saw a final 5-wave decline – allow for a little lower – but we should see the pullback develop…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, February 11, 2019

FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 1.0100





STILL SOME DOLLAR GAINS – BUT A REVERSAL OVER THE DAY

Hmmm… Friday was quite a rough old day. I had thought that EURUSD had completed the downside but clearly, we still need a little a minor follow-through. Indeed, I feel that we have the same situation in USDCHF – perhaps also USDJPY but I’ve been considering the chance it has seen the top. It may be best to wait for a while to make sure that we are seeing the last legs of the Dollar upside to then find the reversal. This should then see a few days – maybe as much as a week – depending on whether we see a double/triple three pullback – or a single zigzag but an overall swing higher. 

As for the fourth major, GBPUSD, it basically took the day off on Friday to wait for the other majors to complete their moves. 

We have a rather juicy hourly bullish divergence in EURJPY. Again, it may just make a minor new low but over the day – and perhaps a few days – we should see a pullback higher. Equally, the Aussie should have completed its decline to see a pullback higher.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, February 8, 2019

NOW FOR SOME CORRECTIVE DEVELOPMENT

I was surprised by the deeper decline in EURUSD. When I looked at that decline I realised that we have been seeing a 3-wave decline to form a Wave -i-. Indeed, GBPUSD also confirmed the same. These two pairs formed an initial Wave a and therefore we should see losses in the early stages but then see a break above yesterday’s Wave a rally. 

USDCHF has not formed a Wave [c]/[v] yet but we’re looking at a 3-wave rally to complete the (navy) Wave [a]/[i]. Equally, USDJPY needs one more new high to complete a Wave -i-. So we’ll “allow” these two to find their highs to then track back in a correction.

In EURJPY, we saw a break below a low but that then required me to work out what had happened. Basically, from the (blue) Wave b, the rally was a single 5-wave rally to 125.96 but with a deep Wave b/iii. We could see some swings with EURUSD rallying and USDJPY declining. This will not be an easy outlook.

As for AUDUSD, it has seen a 5-wave decline – although there may be a minor blip lower. However, overall, we should be heading back higher. Whether it breaks above 0.7296 is still uncertain.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, February 7, 2019

FORECAST FOR EURUSD FROM THE 5TH FEBRUARY



TARGET MET AT 1.1360




OK… NOT QUITE YESTERDAY - BUT SHOULD SEE THE DOLLAR REVERSE PRETTY SOON

Phew… EURUSD has stretched to the limit. USDCHF has reached a Wave iii and will need a pullback and later a mini Wave v. (It loves doing that…) USDJPY only needs a modest break above the current high and GBPUSD remains flapping about like an old scrappy duck. 

Basically, leaving out GBPUSD because British politicians argue and bitch to make them think they’re clever, the other 3 majors should see a reversal back to the Dollar downside. Most likely this will linger through to the Europeans session. Therefore, be prepared for a pullback to yesterday’s Dollar gains. 

This should see EURJPY turn back higher and should see a rally. Even then, with EURUSD moving higher and USDJPY lower, there is a risk of consolidation – or just ragged, scrappy stuff.

As mentioned yesterday, I wasn’t too comfortable with the limited losses. It did a good job of that but we still have to be cognisant that we have only seen a double zigzag and therefore there is a risk of a final 3-wave rally to form a triple three…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, February 6, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE THE DOLLAR REVERSE OVER TODAY

From the end of January, we’ve been looking towards the Dollar upside for quite some while. I suspect this will see the low today. This will need a follow-through – not excessive but enough to form, for most of the pairs, to complete a Wave [a]. We may need a little more time for GBPUSD. That covers EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD. The final of the 4-majors is USDJPY. However, we have a different structure here but this may help us to work out how deep the corrections will be in the other three pairs. 

So, once the 3-majors find their Dollar highs we shall expect Dollar losses – and probably USDJPY as mentioned above with its alternative structure. How deep? Well, at this point it’s almost tossing a coin – but not quite. If I now bring in the Aussie, it really hasn’t made very much impact on the Dollar upside. This could then see a final zigzag higher – so be aware.

With EURJPY having reached the final (blue) Wave a in a triple three, we should see limited losses and then for a final 5-wave rally to complete that triple three. This tends to suggest a stronger reversal throughout the majors. It won’t happen today but more likely next week…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, February 5, 2019

A LITTLE BIT MORE TO GO

We’re still on the same development with quite a modest follow-through to reach the first Wave [a]. I’m not even sure that we’ll see much of a pullback even in the Asian centre but, as always, there’s always a risk of a complex correction. Basically, we need to look for the Dollar upside and use divergences to help us through the process. 

The market appears to have been rather reluctant but we’re plodding along… 

I was surprised with EURJPY rallying but I seem to have found the wrong Wave iii – and the newer high provided the Wave v. Therefore, we should be looking for losses to resume but I feel it’ll be a slow grind. 

As for AUDUSD… the bearish development has reached the Wave a/iii – perhaps even the Wave b/iii but we’ll have to take care in any pullback. However, once that has been seen the Wave c/iii, Wave iv and Wave v should come along…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, February 4, 2019

A CAUTIOUS START TO THE DAY – LATER DOLLAR GAINS

We’re still going through the motions within the lower degree development. Most likely we’ll see a pullback in the Dollar as the day/week begins. It shouldn’t be too deep but over the day we still have to look towards the Dollar upside. Indeed, there are a few of the pairs that are going through this process to form an initial 5-wave move – a Wave [a]. While we shall likely see that Wave [a] it will need a pullback higher to form a Wave [b] and later – probably over a day or two – we’ll finally get to the Wave [ii]. That’s when we should begin to be able to get an idea of the larger wave degree that will eventually see a much stronger Dollar move. Therefore, at this stage, it may be best to take profits when seen.

So, most likely, it looks, a cautious day rather like the last days of last week. Probably USDJPY will see a deep-ish pullback and this will trigger losses in EURJPY. However, it should be a slow decline due to USDJPY likely seeing losses from the start – but just for a pullback. 

Equally, the Aussie has limited upside and firmer downside over the day.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey







Friday, February 1, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 108.50





WE’RE STILL IN THE DOLLAR BULLISH FOUNDATION DEVELOPMENT

The Dollar market remained soft for quite some time during the day but we should now have turned back to the Dollar upside. We have a varying range of development but very much in the early stages of what should later be a strong move higher in the Dollar. Of course, it will need swings but this month does seem to have the sense of a stronger Dollar overall. What with the bitching in Parliament and the total bedlam, this looks like a 1920’s farce. 

So we’re still in the lower degree development that should build up over time. However, once we have reached the higher degree development we should see a stronger structure develop.  Today will be one that will see limited 5-wave moves to build the higher. 

For now, we can look to the Dollar upside although the start of the day – particularly in the Asian centre that tends to normally remain cautious and accepts the pullbacks. Equally, down under, the Aussie has found a high and should be heading lower. 

As for the EURJPY cross, I was surprised by the losses – just a stronger decline in USDJPY forging the way. To see it move more strongly lower it will need a more active EURUSD… 

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey