Monday, January 7, 2019

STILL FOCUS ON THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

After a break over the Xmas period, I'm back and now the market has settled we should see some decent gains in the Dollar.

I have looked into the curious case of the EURUSD highs. We have three options: the 1.1586 high, the 1.1496 high and 1.1479. The 1.1586 high was on the 1stJanuary but I’m discounting that as an aberration due to the extreme lack of liquidity. I have 1.1496 from FXPro on the 2ndJanuary and finally the Reuters high at 1.1479. I have decided to use the Reuters price – but allow for 1.1496. I shall follow both the FXPro and Reuters to try and validate the correct structure. 

Friday’s much deeper pullback in GBPUSD came as a surprise. There is still a risk of a minor new high along with EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY but I suspect we should see the Dollar reverse back to the upside pretty quickly – perhaps it could even see direct Dollar gains. Either way, it should see the Dollar pushing higher over the day. 

EURJPY is rather difficult. We have a rising wedge although I feel it needs to move higher but that will need a stronger push higher in USDJPY and maybe a break above the (brown) Wave -b- in EURUSD. Therefore, take care once we have seen some more constructive development after the open.

As for AUDUSD, I can’t say we have any bearish reversal indications but we have already seen a very deep Wave [b]/[iii] so there really isn’t much room on the upside. Therefore, still focus on the Dollar upside.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






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