Wednesday, June 19, 2019

PULLBACK

Yesterday, we have seen the Dollar highs for now in EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD. Therefore, we should be looking at a corrective process. How deep this will be is pretty difficult to judge although if you look at EURUSD it doesn’t seem to have a massive pullback. USDCHF has formed a Wave -i- and therefore will need a pullback in Wave -ii-. GBPUSD … maybe a modest pullback but overall, as we know, corrections can be slow. 

Now, the final major – USDJPY – has seen deeper losses and frankly, while there could still be a pullback, we should be heading higher…

I ended up screwing up in EURJPY. The Wave i I had was incorrect and instead saw a stronger move lower and overall has formed a (brown) Wave -i- and, like the other three majors, we should be heading back in a Wave -ii-…

Downunder, we have formed the (brown) Wave (iii) and will either see the limit of a Wave (iv) – or we shall see a deep Wave (b)/(v)…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, June 18, 2019

IDEALLY, WE SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

It’s still a slow market but at least we’re getting closer to a pullback. Most likely we should be seeing the reversal today. I just hope that the pullback will be relatively swift. Ha! That’s a joke! Well, ideally, we’ll see a reversal to the Dollar downside. EURUSD is close to finding its low – equally the same in USDCHF but for a pullback lower. 
GBPUSD has just reached the Wave iii and, most likely, we should see a modest pullback – or perhaps a deep Wave b/v…

So, while the three markets noted above, we have USDJPY flapping about, sleeping on the job and really not engaged with the market. It may even see a deeper pullback below the current (green) Wave b. It’s been over a week that I suggested the first reversal target but we ain’t getting there yet…

EURJPY appears to be following a slow pullback higher. Once EURUSD has found its low, this could provide a firmer rally but we still need to be aware of the slothsome USDJPY…

 Finally. The Aussie has reached a Wave (iii) and that could either provide a deep-ish kind of pullback or a deep Wave b/v… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 17, 2019

WE’RE LOOKING FOR A MINOR FOLLOW-THROUGH FOR A REVERSAL

By gum, it has been a slow, slow development. I can’t even say that it’s going to change but – at some point – we’ll begin to see some stronger moves. Basically, EURUSD should just need a 3-wave decline in a Wave v. That’s pretty much the same in USDCHF. However, both USDJPY and GBPUSD should be looking for a slightly firmer move higher in the Dollar. Ideally, USDJPY should be seeing a slightly stronger move higher but I’ve been frustrated with this pair for quite some time, but I’d really like to see this pair finally reach the first reversal target. 

We may have seen the low in EURJPY. We have a decent hourly bullish divergence. Indeed, it tends to suggest that USDJPY should be firmer while EURUSD fiddles around, taking a nap and glad to be doing very little. 

Down under, we have a decline to see to reach the (brown) Wave (c)/(iii) and I fancy the potential for a modestly deep pullback in Wave (iv)…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Friday, June 14, 2019

IT LOOKS LIKE A MIX AND MATCH DAY

I’m getting a bit frustrated with the slow development. In particular, USDJPY should have seen the first reversal target by now but the market just moves sideways. I’ll still keep the Wave iii targets in mind, hopefully, to see some further gains… but… 

EURUSD still needs losses – not too deep but hopefully to form a Wave -i-. USDCHF has been averse to the upside but it must see gains over the day. (Please.) GBPUSD … well, I’d prefer to see losses but there is the risk of an initial pullback higher before those losses. 

There is a chance that we have seen a Wave -i- in EURJPY. The only caveat is that the lower degrees were so shallow that it’s rather difficult to work through the tick-bar development, but it takes so long to work through. 

The Aussie is a little easier. We have seen a 5-wave decline to form the (brown) Wave (a). This should see a decent pullback higher in Wave (b).

Overall, it should still follow the recent development in terms of limited ranges.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, June 13, 2019

WE CONTINUE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION WAVES

At least we’ve finally seen some Dollar gains. It has been a slow process but over the U.S. session, we have finally seen some decent progress. Several pairs are really just building the next higher degree development while others building the lower degrees. This would tend to suggest some swings – a pullback and then later further development to reach the higher degree development. This will likely move into next week. 

I’ve been waiting for the first reversal target in USDJPY, but being frustrated, although I suspect we’ll manage to reach the target today – perhaps into the U.S, session. A few days ago, I mentioned that we should reach to the 1.1200-30 area. Hopefully, we may be able to see that today – maybe tomorrow. USDCHF suffered an expanded flat so we should now be seeing the gains I had been waiting for. GBPUSD finally got up from its slumber to see losses and this should provide a decent decline. 

In the cross, EURJPY has finally managed some losses and should see more but, as I mentioned the swings above, that could just be a slow, slow process. 

The Aussie needs some losses and a pullback… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, June 12, 2019

WE ARE STILL IN THE SLOW, SLOW PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FOUNDATION WAVES

Perhaps I’m too impatient. Well, that could be right but take the example of USDJPY. The start of this move began at 93.78 back in June 2013 and we still have quite some way to go… although I suspect we’ll see some acceleration over the coming months, thanks to Brexit. 

Indeed, we should now begin to find some Dollar bullish development over the next day or three. We need to see USDJPY reach the first reversal target. EURUSD has seen a pullback and at some point, today we are likely to see losses. Equally, USDCHF should move higher and GBPUSD lower. 

I’m slightly uncertain about EURJPY. I’d like to see a minor new high before seeing losses develop. If I haven’t quite hit the right structure, then a break below yesterday’s low… 

As for the Aussie, I’m looking at two alternatives. We may have formed a shallow Wave ii, followed by a (lower degree) wave i and Wave ii. If this is correct, then we’ll be moving lower. The alternative is a deeper pullback in Wave ii… Just take care… and wait for the breaks.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 11, 2019

WE ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FOUNDATION WAVES

We’ve made some decent Dollar gains but there’s still a lot to get through to finally get to the point of a higher degree Wave (i) and Wave (ii). So, we’re going to need to continue following the lower degree development to finally get to the higher degree. This should likely move into next week. 

We should have a good chance of approaching the first reversal target in USDJPY – maybe today but could move into tomorrow. EURUSD may have seen a Wave b but we’ll have to be aware of a deeper Wave b but then we should be heading lower. This is very similar to USDCHF and GBPUSD also, but overall, we should still be looking to the Dollar upside overall. 

As far as I can see, we have formed a Wave i in AUDUSD so we may well see a pullback higher before any stronger decline.

I’m also a little uncertain in EURJPY. We have seen a double zigzag so far but we may even see a final zigzag to complete a triple three. If there are any strong losses in EURUSD, perhaps we can see loses in the cross. However, this will need to move cautiously. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 10, 2019

WE SHALL SEE THE DOLLAR MOVE HIGHER TODAY


I had hoped for the Dollar to just move higher on Friday – but it didn’t come to pass. The key market that will trigger the Dollar gains is in EURUSD. It had opted to take the opportunity for a triple three and may have been completed. However, there is an alternative for a minor new high so keep stops high. Overall, we should see the Dollar upside. Already, USDJPY and USDCHF have seen a deeper pullback and have very little wriggle room on the downside. This also allowed GBPUSD to complete an expanded flat to form the Wave [ii]. Perhaps it may see a minor new high, but overall, once EURUSD has topped out, we should now be looking for stronger Dollar gains.

Even in AUDUSD, we should see losses over the day. EURJPY should see a milder move higher on the open particularly if USDJPY and EURUSD push higher together so there is some risk there. However, once EURUSD has topped out we should begin to see losses in the cross.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 7, 2019

STRONGER DOLLAR MOVES

Yesterday was a rather lackadaisical day. That EURUSD actually made a new 3-wave move higher was rather strange but it’s valid. Perhaps we can see a triple three but from my perspective, the 4 majors are really looking to push higher in the Dollar. For example, USDJPY is now poised to see the first reversal target – and that’s a decent move. Now that we have seen USDCHF finding a deep Wave ii – there’s only one way to go…

This should allow the Aussie to also follow the Dollar upside.

As for the cross, well, we could still see a move higher first before reversing lower. However, once the pullback has been done, we should be looking to the downside.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, June 6, 2019

STRONGER DOLLAR GAINS NOW

I was a little upset with the minor new lows in the Dollar but we’re back on track to begin to make a stronger move higher. However, we have come to a point where we should see an early pullback in the Asian centre before any further gains can be seen. This should provide a stronger platform for a Dollar rally in the European and U.S. centres. Indeed, I am looking for the first reversal target in USDJPY that suggests quite a solid rally.

EURUSD should soon see a Wave v. USDCHF should see a limited pullback before gains resume while GBPUSD is finely balanced between direct losses – or a new high to complete an expanded flat in a Wave [ii]. Either way, over the day we should be heading higher in the Dollar…

The Aussie managed to make a minor new high, rather like the 4 majors, but we have seen the high now and we should be heading lower. 

I was rather amazed at the strength in EURJPY, with bearish divergences and a rising wedge that should have suggested losses. However, with EURUSD moving lower and USDJPY higher we have seen a 3-wave move that could provide a complex correction. This will need some care here.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, June 5, 2019

NOW WE CAN GET BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Having suffered the 1stJanuary mess, and the additional high in EURUSD, I have scrapped the very clearly rubbish that the data provider... err… provided. Having said that, for the most part, his data is good. I suspect he just likes to capture illiquid development. So… we have a different structure now in EURUSD and the next major target is quite some way lower. This tends to suggest that the lower degrees are REALLY lower degrees and we’ll have to build up to the higher degrees and this is going to be a bit messy at times. 

With the other three Majors now having completed the pullback, we’re back on the Dollar upside and basically, this will be the same for all. The only risk is that we still haven’t confirmed whether we’re going to see an expanded flat or a Wave -ii-. 

EURJPY … arggh… what a difficult development in terms of structure but we appear to be seeing a rising wedge and, at some point, that should see a pullback lower. 

The Aussie has found its high so we have a decent move lower to go…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 4, 2019

ANOTHER SURPRISE

Over the turn of the year – 2018-19 – a data provider who is normally pretty good, posted over the New Year. So, I went with it. 

Wrong choice… 

Yesterday’s deeper pullback higher in EURUSD has provided what should now be the (cyan) Wave -b- - perhaps one more push higher before losses. USDJPY has been a pain in the backside – right from the 3rdJanuary and that has affected the development. I think I’ve found the cause, but we should soon see further Dollar gains. Equally, USDCHF appears to have found its low. As for GBPUSD, I have seen an alternative, but we also have the potential for an expanded flat. As the majors are all coming to a reversal, I attempted to provide a Wave i and now we should see a Wave ii. 

The Aussie has topped out – so we should be going lower. EURJPY reached the first reversal target. This should see a pullback – but the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is going to need some care. It could even see a sideways move.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 3, 2019

FRIDAY PROVIDED A SURPRISE

I had thought we’d move into the 1.1108-91 area in EURUSD. After going to sleep all was well. However, what then occurred was a deeper pullback. Very clearly, we have been tricked by a 5-wave decline and we should see a new high after open to then see losses to resume – just a broad swinging move but the lower degrees tend to trick in these cases. 

Even USDJPY triggered a deeper decline. I had thought that the 109.02 had been the Wave v. However, the deep pullback was an aberration to form a Wave iv and now we have probably seen the low – but should hold above 108.08. Therefore, we should be heading higher.

USDCHF still has some further losses to go but only for the Wave v. This should then see gains resume. GBPUSD appears to have formed a Wave ii after an expanded flat. Ideally, we should losses.

I suspect we have seen the low in EURJPY but it may be prudent to allow a margin below. However, even then, while USDJPY can see some decent gains, the limited follow-through higher will then see losses in EURUSD so I’m looking at a potential consolidation.

Finally, the Aussie actually broke higher and needs to reach a Wave iii, a pullback in Wave iv and then a final Wave v. From there we should begin to see losses…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Friday, May 31, 2019

SLOW GOING - BUT WE ARE LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

Yesterday was a Steady Eddie day in both EURUSD and GBPUSD. I was wondering when Cable would break below the lows – but it has. Indeed, overall, I’m expecting losses in these two pairs and for USDJPY and USDCHF to move back higher. However, with the balance between EURUSD and GBPUSD compared to USDCHF and USDJPY it tends to suggest a workmanlike day. So still chugging along bit by bit.

The Aussie has – at last – appears to be looking to the downside. Over yesterday it got pretty damn close to the highs, but it now looks to the downside along with all the other pairs. This should continue today.

As for the Cross, EURJPY should be seeing a 3-wave decline to form a Wave [a]. It makes sense because of the slow development we have seen in the majors…

Take it easy – but note the main direction is Dollar bullish.

Have a profitable weekend
Ian Copsey  


FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING


Thursday, May 30, 2019

THE SURPRISE WAS AN IRREGULAR TRIANGLE IN EURUSD …

Well, I’m glad that I worked through the development and noted the potential irregular triangle in EURUSD. Even GBPUSD as seen losses – not below the Wave [i] but it seems pretty clear that it will continue to look to the downside. Once the break below, it will trigger a target – and it’s a pretty deep one but only in the minimum range. However, that’s for another few months. 

Overall, it looks as if all the 4-majors are now on a Dollar bullish roll. Of course, we shall see swings on the way, but it is an early signal. Indeed, I can see in some pairs, definite targets and that will help with the ongoing development. USDJPY will soon reach its Wave v for a pullback – perhaps not too deep. USDCHF still needs Dollar gains. 

With the irregular triangle in EURUSD, it basically provides some decent Dollar gains, and this will allow the downside to continue in EURJPY. Equally, it looks pretty certain that the Aussie will be panting on its heels to see losses. However, I suspect an early pullback before the next run lower…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, May 29, 2019

A LOWER DOLLAR IS STILL ON THE HORIZON


Yesterday was not quite as I expected but the pullback lower in EURUSD has now reached close to the extreme and therefore we should be looking back to the upside. We also saw a modestly deep pullback in USDJPY. That’s going to see EURJPY going higher. Indeed, the Cross had dipped below the recent low so we’re likely to see an expanded flat higher.

USDCHF has reached the Wave a/iii and thus we need a pullback in Wave b/iii. How deep is the issue but the Wave iii is likely to be the normal initial range, so once we’ve seen that and the Wave iv and Wave v that will then form a Wave (a). I have had to adjust the structure in GBPUSD but as far as I can see this should provide the bullish foundation waves for another rally also.

The Aussie had a slow and steady sideways move so the comments from yesterday. Have we seen the (cyan) Wave -b- or will we see a deeper pullback higher.

Good trading
Ian Copsey