Thursday, August 22, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER DOLLAR GAINS – USDJPY LOSSES

We have seen some sluggish development, mostly due to the initial (Dollar) bullish foundation waves and this should now see (I hope) stronger losses in EURUSD and GBPUSD and gains in USDCHF. Still, we should take this step by step… 

Yesterday’s development in USDJPY provided the (brown) Wave i and Wave ii. Of course, it’s rather strange to see this pair moving down with EURUSD and GBPUSD… but it’s clear that we shall see losses. 

Clearly, with both EURUSD and USDJPY moving lower side by side, we should see some decent losses in EURJPY. This is going to be a difficult to find the Wave c/iii with these two pairs side by side…

I’m now beginning to think that we have seen the Aussie high and more likely to push back below the current low…



Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE STRONGER MOVES

I do get very frustrated when I know where targets are going to develop but have to wait for the Wave i and Wave ii, particularly in the instance where it was long sideways move or expanded flat. Well, I think we are coming out of the Wave i and Wave ii to see strong Dollar gains. 

Of course, we still have USDJPY ready and waiting for losses, but also EURUSD and GBPUSD but the questions is, how quickly the decline develops… However, that being said, we shall see these losses.

USDCHF managed an expanded flat so it now has to move back higher to once it was … but now we can get on with further gains. The only issue is that it could be quite slow… but let’s hope it’s a stronger move.

With the combination of a bearish USDJPY and also EURUSD, the cross is going to see some decent losses… probably the best profit potential over the day…

The Aussie… Oh, do I have to say the same things again? It is so boring to see a 4-day sideways move… Let’s get on with it… but which way?


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

MIX AND MATCH…

Blimey crikey… what a mess… Yesterday was a rough sideways move, much to my disgust. What’s more, I’m beginning to see another “strange” day. 

I fancy a pullback in EURUSD before we see further losses… However, GBPUSD has only a limited upside although I’d much prefer direct losses. At least, we need to allow for both alternatives. 

Coming to USDJPY, the (cyan) Wave b/iii recorded a 92% retracement. There ain’t any room on the upside! Therefore, we should be seeing losses… at last…

So, between EURUSD and USDJPY we shall need to see whether it will form a triangle or just direct losses. 

The Aussie, still inebriated, looks like seeing gains… That is my preference as I have mentioned several times. However, it may be best to wait to see a break above the current top…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, August 19, 2019

WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS ONCE MORE…

Having EURUSD and, in particular, GBPUSD that saw a new pullback of 90%, we have very little wriggle room on the upside. Hence, I suspect we are going to see some decent losses. 

Then I took a look at the weekly decline in USDJPY, particularly because it had seen a new low last week that moved to a new low that could imply that we have seen the final low. Clearly, within a weekly development I looked at the major swings. I have just taken the time to see if there was an alternative and it actually worked quite well… I would suggest taking care. Basically, if we just see gains in USDJPY, I’d suggest that we have seen the low.

My only problem is in USDCHF. This has been a difficult development and I have some doubts. Perhaps the minor pullback at the end of Friday was just that and could see gains. However, this pair will need to make its own way.

If USDJPY has seen the final low, then we’re going to see some consolidation or more limited losses. There is also the risk of an expanded flat although I tend to doubt, but I suggest caution here also.

The Aussie… Oh! The Aussie, walking in the Outback and getting lost… Will it rally to a new high to reach towards a new high; or, will it now join the brat packs and make its way to a new low…?


Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey

Friday, August 16, 2019

MOSTLY DOLLAR GAINS TODAY

I noted that in USDJPY that it saw a low at 105.07, that was 11 points below daily (cyan) (a)/(b). However, as far as I can see, we haven’t seen the (brown) Wave iii… I’d like to think that we can see that drop, pullback and drop but the final low is going to be quite difficult to establish in terms of targets…

Both EURUSD and GBPUSD, while there could be a minor new high, over the day we should be heading lower over the day and into next week. As long as 0.9798 breaks higher in USDCHF, then that will begin to see further gains. However, I really couldn’t make much sense of the rally. Best take care. The alternative will be an expanded flat back…

With EURUSD and USDJPY both likely to see losses, we should see some decent losses…

And what of the old cobbler dahn under, it has seen a pullback. It hasn’t broken above the 0.6821 high just yet, but it seems to have the potential. The alternative is a break below 0.6735…


Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey

Thursday, August 15, 2019

FOLLOWING ON…

To be honest, we’re basically still on the main outlooks. I have finally resolved the puzzle in EURUSD. This will see a dip, pullback and further losses over the day. GBPUSD woke up after midnight and saw the darkness, so it decided to go to sleep. Will it see a pullback as I had assumed a few days ago, or will it just see losses? Well, perhaps with EURUSD looking to see a pullback, there is a chance that GBPUSD will mimic the idea… Once we have confirmed losses in GBPUSD I’ll be relieved…

When it came to USDCHF, well, it didn’t really do very much at all. So, we’re pretty much sitting in the middle of a consolidation and we have to toss a coin… Or perhaps, with USDJPY back on the downside towards the targets I had been looking for.

EURJPY provided the roller coaster. We should a see a limited pullback and then further losses and then we can look for the Wave iii and Wave iv … and Wave v … Once that has been seen, a pullback will be in place.

The Aussie… oh dear… The old amber nectar has been in play. Down a bit, up a bit and down a bit. I’d still prefer to see a new high but at this stage I’d rather wait for the break…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

SOME PUZZLES TO BE SOLVED

Yesterday was not quite as I had expected. 

Let’s start with EURUSD. I have been battling with a potential triangle, but it doesn’t seem to have been a triangle. I would call it a “mess”. I have come to the point where I feel we may see a new high – but below 1.1266. Over the day, we should see losses in this pair. It will be best to remain neutral until we finally get back to the Dollar upside.

USDJPY… I’ve had to make a slight adjustment and we should be looking for losses over the day – and that’s definitely required. Whether it gets below the Wave iii, I’m not so sure. It seems that USDJPY and USDCHF appear to be buddies and both should see losses. Whether it will get below 0.9659 is something to consider. If it does, then we’ll need another final zigzag lower.

GBPUSD hasn’t found the highs I had thought. I’d prefer to see a deeper pullback, but the alternative is deeper losses – that’s going to be interesting…

Down under, we’re still battling between a new high or a direct decline to new lows… It’s tiresome, but we’ll have to bear up…

I’ve provided the potential for an expanded flat, but frankly with USDJPY moving lower again, I suspect we’ll be looking to the downside. The only puzzle is in EURUSD. Will it see a new high or, direct losses…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

STILL SLOW GOING…

We have seen some slow, Dollar losses in USDJPY and that should continue. At the same time, we appear to be seeing complex triangle in EURUSD that should see a dip and a pullback before we can get on with the process of seeing deeper losses. Strangely, if I have this correct, USDCHF should move in parallel with USDJPY to see losses. Most likely this will develop in slow motion…

The good old GBPUSD (God Bless Her Majesty) still needs a deeper pullback. That actually is quite appropriate since EURUSD will need a pullback as mentioned above. So once these two pairs find their highs, we can get on with losses…

As for the Aussie, gee, this is in neutral territory. Will it break to new lows – or – new highs… If I have my way, I’d like to see a new high to form a bearish divergence. That should then see losses. However, we have the alternative of a direct break below 0.6677… This pair needs to be cautious…

EURJPY… I’m torn between just direct losses, as long as USDJPY provides the downside but the other side is that EURUSD will need a pullback. 

Puzzles, puzzles, puzzles…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, August 12, 2019

MIX AND MATCH…

I’m sitting here, looking at the range of pairs and I can’t see a balance between them all. Perhaps I’ve not caught things correctly. Just as an example, EURUSD appears to need losses while GBPUSD needs gains. It doesn’t seem correct. If there is any alternative in EURUSD, perhaps we have seen a triangle and could just see gains and that would see a new high but with a limit at 1.1266… Seems a bit lame.

I’d suggest taking care. I still feel that EURUSD should see losses. As for GBPUSD, well, should it just goes lower, then I’ll have to look for my error…

At least, we have USDJPY moving down to the target I have suggested and that should also provide further bearish momentum for EURJPY also. 

For the final conundrum, the Aussie hasn’t formed a bearish divergence. Ideally, we should see a second rally before going lower – an ideally with a bearish divergence. However, just keep in mind that we may just see losses. 


Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

Friday, August 9, 2019

THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES…

At least, we have seen some Dollar gains but it’s slow going. Having said that, I’m not too surprised with GBPUSD still appearing to be developing a triangle that will need pullback and then losses. If we just see losses, then we’re looking at more impulsive development. However, I doubt this because we still have to see losses in USDJPY and, by gum, it’s been slow, but I still look for the downside.

Another pair that has been creeping around – EURUSD – should be seeing losses to catch up with GBPUSD. However, we mayneed to allow for a triangle. I tend to doubt this due to GBPUSD… For USDCHF, we have choices. Does it finally see a triple three or a pullback higher? Perhaps USDJPY would partner with the Swissie…

I also have a bearish EURJPY and with USDJPY most likely driving the two pairs (with EURUSD) the downside still seems very vulnerable…

No bearish divergence in AUDUSD. This could see minor losses but overall, we need a bearish divergence to push lower… That looks like a job for next week…


Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

Thursday, August 8, 2019

STILL LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH EXCEPT USDJPY

I have changed my mind about the extreme losses in USDJPY. However, we should see losses that should move below 104.69 and later and then we have to take care. It’s possible to that we can see a little more.

Meanwhile, excluding USDJPY, I am still expecting to see a triangle in GBPUSD although it’s possible to see a move lower, but we’ll have to take care. I’ll try and explain this within the individual pairs.

EURUSD needs to form more decent losses. If we are to form a triangle then the we’ll have a long, slow development. If you see a stronger decline, then the triangle is likely. If we see a limited decline, then we’re more likely to form a Wave i and then a Wave ii.

We may have seen the low in USDCHF within a double zigzag. However, there is the risk of a final zigzag to complete a triple three. Keep both in mind and I’ll let you know the break level to see gains.

Still in EURJPY, we have options. I tend to feel that we won’t have a complex correction. We should see losses through USDJPY and the balance between the EURUSD options – so overall losses.

As for the upside-down pair, AUDUSD still seems to need a slightly higher pullback. We don’t have a bearish divergence at this moment but that’s something we need to note. This pullback, as I mentioned yesterday, needn’t see a strong move higher.


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

A BALANCE BETWEEN AN IMPULSIVE DAY OR A COMPLEX CORRECTION

Having said that we should see a Dollar bullish day, I still have concerns over USDJPY. The Wave ^E is just too deep. I will provide the weekly chart today and that does seem to have the potential for Dollar losses. Let’s just say that we need to be cautious in case we see a sharp drop once more. 

Overall, there is the potential for complex corrections – and that seems to be a pattern through some of the pairs. Keep that in mind.

Otherwise, the outlook does look Dollar bullish. Yes, we can see pullbacks early in the day, but the outcome should be a bearish GBPUSD and EURUSD and a bullish USDCHF. I note that in EURUSD, the rally we saw came in a 3-wave move and therefore we may see a complex correction – perhaps a triangle. Otherwise, we could just see losses.

GBPUSD may see a complex correction. USDCHF needs gains.

EURJPY is another 3-wave move so there could still be a complex correction – or just losses back below 117.67…

AUDUSD … finally completed the Wave v but don’t get too concerned about the pullback because the next decline is going to be firm…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

CAUTIOUS AT THE START BUT OVERALL, WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS

It wasn’t quite the day I had expected. The balance between GBPUSD and EURUSD was quite astonishing. What we saw in EURUSD was an 81.7% retracement in a Wave b/iii. GBPUSD took the opportunity to have a nap. While I can’t say that we’ll see direct losses, quite frankly we may see a pullback higher before both pairs seeing losses. However, we shall see losses in both pairs.

I am still slightly uncertain in USDJPY. I have provided a triangle, but the depth of losses is something that I have not seen in a triangle. Indeed, there is still a risk of a new low… and frankly I feel this may come to pass…. It will be prudent to be aware of both alternatives…

USDCHF managed a deep, deep expanded flat and almost broke below the 0.9693 low – but has managed to provide a bullish divergence. Overall, we should see this pair push higher again now. 

I mentioned GBPUSD above. All I can say, is that we should now see losses and to work lower to the targets I have been suggesting.

I also had to change the bearish structure in EURJPY to see a pretty deep Wave -b-/-iii-. Now’s the time to see losses but much depends on the balance between the two pairs – even to the possibility of a triangle or any complex correction…

As for the Aussie… well, it really didn’t do very much – perhaps drinking Aussie’s finest beer and having a sleep. However, I suspect we shall see losses…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, August 5, 2019

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE…

I went through the analysis over the weekend. There were still some pairs that had to complete their moves. The one pair I have that is a little tricky is in USDJPY. I have kept it as a triangle, but it is a rather extreme Wave ^E that tends to make me cautious. Therefore, it’ll be prudent to confirm a reversal higher. 

Indeed, the other 3 majors are fine and dandy. I had looked for GBPUSD to move to a new high on the open. That’s done. EURUSD also made a new high – a 78% Wave b/iii. The other pair, USDCHF, was another difficult development but once I put in the triangle that I missed last week, it basically formed an expanded flat to form a (blue) Wave [b] – so allowing for a little lower, we should soon see gains resume.

The Aussie was a “could be a deep pullback … or a shallow pullback…” and the market chose a shallow pullback. So now we should be seeing losses…

EURJPY, as far as I can see, suggests a limited downside and, I hope, that we’ll see a pullback…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thursday, August 1, 2019

A MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH DAY – BUT WE’RE MOVING INTO A REVERSAL

Yesterday wasn’t quite as I expected. For one, EURUSD almost developed a triangle but it ducked out and has taken the GBPUSD route. Indeed, it looks like a pullback in Cable wile EURUSD could see a little lower for a pullback.

USDJPY still needs further gains to reach the (navy) Wave iii, minor pullback and then to reach the (blue) Wave iii. The next part will either be a deep pullback in a Wave iv – or a deep Wave b/v. Equally, USDCHF needs a new high to form a Wave a/iii to then back to the Wave b/iii. 

When it came to EURJPY and its expanded flat, it was quite a deep move lower. Therefore, USDJPY needs to provide the oomph to see some decent gains while EURUSD should only see a minor new low – for a pullback that should help EURJPY rally back higher again.

The Aussie just needs a 5-wave decline to then revert back to the upside for a correction…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

A BIT OF A MISH MASH – BUT DOLLAR BULLISH OVERALL

Indeed, we did have a sideways move yesterday. It’s not quite finished. We should see some limited (Dollar) losses over the Asian centre but from there, we should be heading higher again. USDJPY just needs to confirm the expanded flat to then see gains. EURUSD also needs a minor new high to complete the Wave ^c. USDCHF – this is quite uncertain. Perhaps we have seen the low but keep in mind the risk of a minor new low before any stronger bullish moves.

That should keep GBPUSD on the downside…

EURJPY looks a bit of a mess but I still hope to see an expanded flat. This tends to suggest a slow development to see losses. I really wouldn’t like to get in a tangle but wait for breaks…

The Aussie… well it could see a deep pullback in a Wave iv. The alternative is a shallow pullback and then a deep Wave b/v…

So, by the end of the day, we should be heading to a Dollar bullish outcome. 


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

MOSTLY A SIDEWAYS DAY – EXCEPT GBPUSD

While the other pairs were steadily developing, the GBPUSD was pounding the Pound and, barring limited pullbacks, we should see continued losses develop. I actually found this strange because it should have been seeing losses way back… 

The other pairs appear to be seeing a pullback, perhaps a range. I’m still considering a triangle in EURUSD. It certainly seems that way… USDJPY failed to move up to the target I had in mind, but it appears that we are seeing an expanded flat. That’s going to be a big clue as to when the Dollar rally resumes.

I’ve adjusted USDCHF due to the depth of the pullback. So we have formed the (green) Wave a/iii and, along with USDJPY, we should see the reversal higher around the same time.

The Aussie has a firm bullish divergence. I’m not sure whether we have seen the current low but it would be prudent to allow a new low. However, overall, I suspect we shall see gains today.

As for EURJPY, well, it made a new high… just… I’m still neutral on this pair…


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, July 29, 2019

THE BORIS FACTOR?

I had been looking for some decent pullbacks, but with USDJPY looking bullish, USDCHF bullish initially – possibly a shallow pullback and later further gains. We have GBPUSD still needing losses. What of EURUSD? Well, there is a risk of a triangle but with the other pairs still looking for Dollar gains, it tends to suggest we shall continue the Dollar strength. 

While I have made these outlooks, there will be some pullbacks – probably minor as the lower degrees through to the higher degrees. One possible chance of a mildly deeper pullback will be in USDJPY once it has reached the (green) Wave (a)/(iii). Ideally, we should see a pullback and then we’re going to need to take care with the general development matching across the pairs. 

The Aussie is approaching the (brown) Wave iii and this will give us a dilemma – shallow pullback and a Wave b/v or a deeper Wave iv? We’ll have to manage that as we go through.

Finally, EURJPY is rather difficult to judge. We are likely to see USDJPY rallying while EURUSD declining. The range we have seen is pretty shallow but it’s best to wait for breaks of the range.


Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 26, 2019

STILL LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

On the whole, we managed some decent Dollar gains but there’s more to go. Most likely we could reach to a point today that will see a cap for a reversal. However, at the current positions, the next move will be higher throughout all the pairs. Ideally, I’d like to see USDJPY reach the (green) Wave (a)/(iii). EURUSD is rather uncertain but, as I have it, we need a move lower while USDCHF is still pointing higher.

Out of the 4majors, I was rather surprised with GBPUSD that slowed down. Of course, I don’t take any fundamental input, but I guess that the “Boris” factor probably slowed things down. However, we should be heading lower again today.

I had a long look in EURJPY and decided that something was wrong. I’d still prefer to be cautious because the pullback higher is relatively shallow. Perhaps, with a stronger USDJPY and an uncertain EURUSD, this could be a relatively limited range day.

Finally, the Aussie is still pointing lower…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

Thursday, July 25, 2019

I SENSE SOME FIRM DOLLAR GAINS

When EURUSD found a low yesterday, I expected a deeper pullback. Then, when I woke up and looked at the other pairs. GBPUSD had one of those “I’m gonna have a deep pullback” so we should be seeing losses. USDJPY saw a pullback in a deepish Wave b, Aussie needing to spend a penny lower. I can’t say the same with USDCHF. There’s plenty of downside room but I’d prefer to be cautious. 

I’m not saying that we shall see an immediate strong rush higher at the start. Indeed, there is room on the Dollar downside – but relatively limited.  However, over the rest of the day we appear to have some decent gains in the Dollar…

Even EURJPY has the same outlook. It has potential for a pullback – but limited – but overall, this should then see a stronger decline. 

Therefore, slight caution from the start but expect Dollar gains…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Monday, July 22, 2019

WE HAVE LIMITED DOLLAR DOWNSIDE AND STRONGER UPSIDE

Just looking at the start of trading, we have very, very limited Dollar downside. I have to say that we may see a Dollar pullback – but limited. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dollar just rallied from the open. This is really quite positive but how quickly we see further gains in the Dollar is another matter. Let’s face it, the past several weeks – or more – have been rather slow development. Oh, how I’d like to see some stronger impulsive moves. 

EURUSD is now looking to complete the (purple) sequence to form the (cyan) Wave a/iii and Wave b/iii, to be followed by the Wave iii. Eventually, we should see the Wave -iii-, Wave -iv- and Wave -v-. How long that will take is not yet known. This is very much the same in GBPUSD. I’d like to reach down to the 1.20 area – but again, it will need quite some time.

If we’re talking about a limited pullback, then USDJPY is the one to scorn. It is just 20 points. Again, I’d reckon we’ll see direct gains. Then comes USDCHF. It has just 6 points…

If there was one pair that could have a deeper pullback, then it’s in AUDUSD. Even then, I reckon that we’ll just see losses…

Finally, EURJPY is slightly different. Friday ended the day on a low to form a Wave a. Ideally, we should see a pullback before we can extend to the downside…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 19, 2019

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE


I was a little shocked with the deeper pullback in EURUSD that implied that we had formed a Wave I and Wave ii. More than that, I was even more shocked in AUDUSD that brought us higher to the (purple) Wave -b-. 

However, this should now see a move back to the Dollar upside. EURUSD managed to form a Wave a and maybe Wave b, so we should be heading lower here. GBPUSD also managed a deep Wave ii and therefore we should be reversing that rally to see losses back below the (cyan) Wave i. Both USDJPY and USDCHF suffered further Dollar losses yesterday but both now have bullish divergences and that will provide the impetus to push back higher. 

The only thing is, how quickly can the move back to the current Dollar highs. It’s a Friday, so I suspect we shall see gains, but I doubt we’ll reach the current highs. 

The Aussie… surprised with the rally but we should now see losses. 

In the cross, we have a bearish EURUSD and bullish USDJPY. It doesn’t make for a strong range and the balance between the pairs could see some ups and downs without a particularly strong range.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

Thursday, July 18, 2019

LAST LEGS OF THE PULLBACK AND A REVERSAL OVER THE DAY

I had hoped to have completed the pullback yesterday, but it didn’t quite manage it through yesterday. We need a little more downside in the Dollar, not by too much. We’re even starting with pullback higher in USDJPY to then see a final new low. Equally, EURUSD should also see gains having seen a low in EURJPY. However, while USDCHF may/should see a minor new low, but we should be alert for a reversal higher. GBPUSD…hmmm… It really didn’t make much of the pullback. Will that be the top or a second zigzag? I’m balanced in this pair. 

So, probably into the afternoon, we should be looking for a reversal higher in the Dollar to then continue towards stronger daily targets – although not over one day…

The Aussie has seen a deep pullback but really doesn’t have much room on the upside. Certainly, keep stops above 0.7045… We should see the upside-down currency moving back lower.

As for EURJPY… I am getting a little uncertain of the structure. I’ve attempted to get it right. Certainly, the ideal is for EURUSD and USDJPY to see pullbacks, and that’s my preference but I do find this rather conflicting. It may be best to wait until we have resolved this pullback and then for Dollar gains to develop.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

EARLY DOLLAR LOSSES – PERHAPS A LATER REVERSAL HIGHER

It was good to see some meaningful development yesterday instead of the creepy, crawly “I’m not sure… oh dear, what should I do” outlook. It looks pretty much that we shall see an early Dollar downside. What we need to establish is that we should be heading lower in the Dollar but we should look to ensure that the balance between the pairs is correct in terms of limits. 

Take the example of EURUSD. Yesterday it formed a Wave a/iii. So today we should see a Wave /iii, but the upside limit doeshave a limit in this correction. So, I tend to feel that the Dollar losses will not be too deep… This should provide limits in the other pairs. 

I have placed a (navy) Wave i and Wave ii in USDJPY but there is a risk of a deeper pullback lower before any further gains. USDCHF should also be seeing the same but, as I mentioned above, we do have limits. This is quite important to retain the balance across the pairs and even GBPUSD, having formed a Wave i, must see a Wave ii and there’s quite a large amount of room on the topside. Therefore, we should be looking for the Dollar pullback that balances across the pairs. At the end of the day, we should see a reversal to the Dollar upside.

EURJPY should see a second 5-wave rally to form a (cyan) Wave b/iii. From there we should be heading down to the Wave c/iii…

The Aussie… That was a difficult development. I’m still not entirely sure I have found the Wave I but like the other pairs, we should be seeing Dollar losses in a pullback. 

So, at the end of the day, I suspect that we’ll be looking to see back to the Dollar upside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

RENEWING THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Yesterday was basically the day I had expected. I would have preferred a quicker development but, hey ho, we can’t complain… However, today should have more vigor to push the Dollar higher. I’m not going to provide too much at this stage but “bullish” we should see. Over the past few weeks we have seen some sluggish development. I can’t even say that it will accelerate but, overall, we should be heading higher.

USDJPY should be able to form the Wave i and perhaps a bit more. I’d like to see EURUSD reach down below towards the “normal” Wave a/iii – although I’m not quite sure what “normal” means at times… USDCHF may see a minor pullback but over the day we should be heading higher also.

GBPUSD appears to need a minor new corrective low and followed by a pullback – and if we’re lucky we may even see losses over the day.

While there is some risk of a pullback in EURJPY, the day should head lower again and that could now be the final pair to move back lower – AUDUSD…That was quite a stretched out rally we have seen. It’s now time for losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 12, 2019

...AND BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE…

Well, that was a quickie… Yesterday saw the final low in the Dollar and a reversal, not by too much, but we are now beginning to go through the lower degree development that will build a Wave (a) and then a pullback – and so on. Once we have reached the higher degree the outlook will be a little easier to see as we continue on the Dollar rally. So overall, this should be a limited range day again, but it’s doing its job building up to the higher degree.

However, the good thing is that we have mostly a pretty seen a barrier on the Dollar downside and therefore we should see some decent gains – albeit not exactly exciting. Therefore, keep targets rather limited until we get a rise towards the higher degree development which will then generate stronger moves.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thursday, July 11, 2019

LIMITED DOLLAR LOSSES FOR A REVERSAL HIGHER

Yesterday was a predominantly pullback day. In the process, I have found some errors on the way, but this provides a good opportunity now to begin the process of completing the correction to then move lower. This tends to suggest an initial rally and a reversal to form the bearish foundation waves.

So far, we have seen USDJPY complete a double zigzag and without a bullish divergence we’re likely to see that final zigzag. This also matches with EURUSD that needs a limited rally with momentum beginning to wane.

Two markets were the difficult part. I had to concede to a deep pullback lower. In this scenario, we now have the (blue) Wave -a- at 0.9952 and a deeper Wave -b-/-iii-. Take care in the early stages but we should head higher over the day. This was pretty much the same in GBPUSD, but it meant that the 1.2440 low was the (brown) Wave -a- and we’re now looking for a minor new high – with divergences – to see a reversal lower.

EURJPY edged up yesterday but then whiped back lower. I’d like to see a pullback higher, but I suspect it will not be too deep. Once we have completed the final zigzag in USDJPY, along with the limited upside in EURUSD, we should be heading lower in the cross – or may see a consolidation at some point.

AUDUSD managed to form a Wave (a). From there we have seen some gains but in a pullback. Once again, we need to watch for bearish reversal indications to then see losses...

Good trading 
Ian Copsey

SLOWLY COMING BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

I really get bored with these slow, cumbersome and sleepy development. I know where this is going in the larger picture so why can’t the market get on with its job? I did suggest looking for a second rally in USDJPY and that has developed but it’s a rather awful development. It should still see a new high but over the day it should, I hope, reverse lower. Even the Wave -v- I have placed in the chart in EURUSD appears to have formed a low – along with a bullish divergence. It may be prudent to allow for a new low, but we should – surely – see a pullback higher - please.

USDCHF has been bothering me. It fell just a few pips below the (blue) Wave -iii-. I’d like to see this develop into a “quickie” – up to the Wave iii and then a Wave v pretty quick. However, prudently, we need to just follow that move...

In the land of “Brexit” I still see losses. However, I wonder whether we are seeing one of those broad swings – up and down – to then push lower. I have some concerns over this pair. Just be aware of breaks that could see a break one way or the other.

Between EURUSD and USDJPY, we have seen a deeper pullback. This cross can provide a deep Wave b/iii but overall with EURUSD – hopefully – we can see a new high but once USDJPY has tired of the altitude we should see losses overall.

A pullback appears to be the expectation in the Aussie.

Have a profitable day 
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

SLOW DEVELOPMENT BUT BEGINNING TO TURN

What a slow day we had yesterday. At least, USDJPY appears to have topped out for a correction lower. I’d prefer to allow for a new high. I suggest this because we haven’t seen a bearish divergence. Then came the decline in EURUSD – but oh, so slow losses. It just about managed to reach the Wave -a-/-iii- but even then, it was above the Wave -iii-... or perhaps it needs a minor new low – but even that would be the Wave -a-. However, I suspect we shall soon see the Wave - v- to then provide a pullback higher.

The Swissie still hasn’t managed to find the (blue) Wave -iii- yet but, it should only a few pips to complete. This could see a deepish pullback – or a deep Wave -b-/-v-. This will need some care. An even slower pair, in GBPUSD, seemed to decide to have a break for a while. This could still have the potential to see a pullback higher.

EURJPY was always a potential pullback but it managed that quite well. This will likely see losses today due to the limited low in EURUSD while USDJPY will join in on the downside. Maybe, this could be the best pair to follow but we’ll need some care here.

If we’re talking about a decent decline, AUDUSD still has downside to go. It’ll be a slower decline compared to EURJPY, but we should see losses for a while today.

Good trading 
Ian

Monday, July 8, 2019

THIS LOOKS LIKE A SWING DAY

Friday didn’t quite match the headline and instead we saw some decent Dollar gains. I can’t say that all pairs will quite follow the same outcome today, but there are quite a few pairs that approaching a Wave v.

We seem to need just a 3-wave decline in EURUSD to complete a Wave -v-. USDJPY needs an early pullback to then form a Wave v. USDCHF needs a little more oomph as in needs a Wave v that then links up to a (blue) Wave -iii- and onwards, but not by a huge margin. As for GBPUSD, it’s sorta hanging around a Wave b but I rather doubt we’ll see a strong pullback.

EURJPY is a bit of a puzzler. We have formed a (potential) Wave b/iii. It could be a little higher. The USDJPY element sees some swings – a pullback in a Wave iv and followed by a Wave v. This tends to suggest that with EURUSD completing a Wave -iv- and Wave -v- that we may see a rather sideways day.

Downunder, we should see a minor pullback higher and later losses. The only possibility of a sideways move would be in a complex correction. However, if there’s any stronger losses then follow it.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 5, 2019

MOST LIKELY A LIMITED RANGE DAY

Well, I hope you had a sleepy day… The market sure was slow… Having said that, we’re likely to see a little more as we go into the weekend. I would imagine that the Asian centre is going to be slow going.

Most likely we shall see a (Dollar bullish) pullback which does seem to have been left from Wednesday’s general lows. However, there is an exception – that’s GBPUSD which hasn’t yet completed the Wave v. Perhaps the other pairs may follow suit – but it’s not set in stone. Let’s just say that there are risks on both sides. However, over the day I do expect a Dollar pullback in USDJPY. I’m divided in USDCHF – it could go either way.

EURUSD – most likely gains from the start because there isn’t much room on the downside. I wouldn’t be surprised that the sideways move continues. Perhaps once GBPUSD has completed the Wave v, we should see the pullback higher. 

If there is any early break below Wednesday’s lows, we’re more likely to suggest an expanded flat. 

EURJPY… will likely see a pullback in a Wave  b/iii while AUDUSD – over the day – should head lower…

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey


Wednesday, July 3, 2019

STILL A BIT OF A MIXTURE BETWEEN PAIRS


To sum up, USDJPY may have seen the final high – but allow for a minor new high. So that obviously means that we should see a corrective move over today. This should also see EURUSD seeing losses but towards the end of this we’ll reach the (brown) Wave -a-/-iii- for a pullback. USDCHF is a bit of a conundrum. However, this tends to suggest that, overall, the market may just see a limited pullback to then continue the bullish Dollar move.

GBPUSD still has some downside. It’s a little difficult to judge the development at this stage but overall, if my thoughts above have been correct, it tends to suggest that the pullback will be relatively shallow.

The Aussie looks to see losses – but also should expect a pullback higher before any stronger losses. EURJPY has seen some decent losses – but it seems that we could see a pullback. If my outlook for the pullbacks in the Majors, it tends to suggest we shall see losses overall but with a sideways move at some point.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, June 28, 2019

FROM SIDEWAYS TO A SWINGING DOLLAR

How slow is this market? It’s terribly slow! At least USDJPY and USDCHF managed some decent gains but EURUSD and GBPUSD decided to flounder in a sideways move. It was terribly frustrating. However, we should be seeing Dollar gains today but even then, considering USDJPY and USDCHF should be pointing higher, we should now see EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to see losses today. Trying to keep the balance between these pairs could still see some swings into next week. So, I’m not looking for strong moves again today. More likely, we’ll see a stronger Dollar over the coming week. 

With EURUSD looking for losses and USDJPY bullish (but with a limit), it tends to suggest a limited range day. As for AUDUSD with the rising wedge, we should see losses but then I suspect we’ll build the bearish foundation waves.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING


Thursday, June 27, 2019

FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

We saw some modest gains in the Dollar yesterday. We should see more today but once that has been seen we should suffer a pullback. USDJPY has been seeing some slow, but constructive gains and I’m expecting more. EURUSD was a rather a sideways move but we should see it lower – and equally in USDCHF. 

The good old Sterling had quite a solid decline initially but then began to build a sideways move. I don’t think it’s a consolidation but more of a minor Wave i and Wave ii, followed by another lower degree Wave i and Wave ii… If I have that correctly, then we should see some decent losses.

While all were in a general range, EURJPY took time to see a second rally. This additional high really doesn’t have any room for further gains so really, we should be looking for losses. The Aussie managed a new high but I reckon we’re going to see losses now…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Wednesday, June 26, 2019

REVERSAL

There were a few kinks in the development yesterday. However, they’ve all be ratified and basically, we are looking to the Dollar upside once more. Of course, we shall see pullbacks and in the Asian centre it’s normal to see pullbacks but over the day we should be heading lower once more. Even the Dollar Index managed a relatively deep pullback – but we have seen the low so we should be looking for some solid gains.

Even so, we are at an early stage of the larger Dollar rally so we are going to have to work through the lower degrees to generate the larger degrees and that’s going to take a month or two I would guess. USDCHF has a hard task following the deep pullback but over time we’ll be seeing new highs above the current highs. That’s pretty much the same in USDJPY and EURUSD. 

We have also seen a high in EURJPY – something I have been waiting for some time. The only problem is how fast or slow the losses develop. 

The Aussie… I’m still looking for losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 25, 2019

DOLLAR GAINS

I really found yesterday really boring and frustrating. How slow could it have been? EURUSD attempted to try and push higher – which it did – but in such a slow, sluggish move – although it managed to reach the 1.1390-1.1414 area as I suggested. GBPUSD surprised me with a new high but I realised my error so we should now see losses. 

We also had USDCHF break lower to 6 points below the (green) Wave [ii] in an expanded flat - so now we can allow for a little lower, but overall the larger outcome is going to be for gains to resume. 
A for USDJPY… snore… 

AUDUSD managed to complete a triple three so we should be looking lower. Equally, EURJPY should see losses over the day. I’m just slightly wondering whether we may see a minor new high before losses resume.

So, the outcome for today is Dollar bullish – at last…

Good trading
Ian Copsey