Wednesday, January 16, 2019

LIMITED FOLLOW-THROUGH AND REVERSAL

For the most part, I was satisfied with the gains in the Dollar. That GBPUSD completed a 5-wave decline, it was always going to see a pullback and it was quite a rush back higher. Clearly, the fumbling of what is happening in the UK is rather an embarrassment. However, it should see losses…

For EURUSD and USDCHF seem to have the same type of development – a follow-through on the Dollar upside and I’d suspect it may end into the North American session. This should see 
a (blue) Wave -a-/-iii- in USDCHF and a (brown) Wave -a-/-iii- in EURUSD. So they’ll need a pullback.

USDJPY is a bit tricky as we may have alternatives – either an expanded flat or a break higher. 

The Aussie has yet to find its high but it looks like managing that (finally…) so watch for the reversal lower.

The slow and very steady EURJPY has now found a Wave -a- and therefore we’ll need a pullback higher…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING


Tuesday, January 15, 2019

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Barring some potential minor (Dollar) losses in the early stages, I feel that we should be looking for the Dollar to begin the initial bullish foundation waves. It seems that EURUSD has already started the process along with GBPUSD that edged a little higher than I forecast – but still in the range of a Wave v. It would be nice to see AUDUSD finally complete the rally we have been seeing. Once that has been confirmed it should begin the downside slide.

As we go through the day, we should begin to see further Dollar gains. USDJPY has completed a double zigzag – perhaps it can complete a triple three. USDCHF could be similar – just a minor new dip. As normal, the Asian start tends to be rather sleepy.

Once we get into the Asian/European session the Dollar should begin the process of the bullish foundation waves and then higher into the U.S. session. 

As for EURJPY, I feel we have found the (brown) Wave [a] and – most likely – the Wave [b] also. Perhaps there could be some minor new highs in the Wave [b]. However, overall this should see losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Monday, January 14, 2019

EARLY DOLLAR GAINS FOR A PULLBACK

For the most part, Friday was basically as I had expected. It was just GBPUSD and AUDUSD that ruined the plot. That GBPUSD made a break above 1.2815 provoked a huge rewrite of the decline from the 1.3175 high, Basically, the 1.2477 low was the (purple) Wave [a] and this was followed by a pullback – new low and we should complete the expanded flat pretty soon. This will then require losses. The Aussie broke above the break level that effectively saw the 0.6684 low to form a Wave [i]. However, both of these problems will be short lived …

Otherwise, USDJPY needs a new high for a pullback. EURUSD should see losses – for a pullback. USDCHF … well, it looks to be looking to the upside. 

This just leaves EURJPY to complete a pullback higher and then back lower…  

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, January 11, 2019

EARLY PULLBACK FOR DOLLAR GAINS

We have begun to develop the Dollar bullish foundation waves. They’re now quite done. EURUSD has formed a Wave i so we need a pullback in Wave ii. GBPUSD has only managed a meagre Wave a so we need to confirm the Wave b for losses to the Wave c/i. USDCHF found it’s low and from there it soared higher to form a Wave i.

In the meantime, USDJPY has formed a Wave -a- and it looks like we’re seeing an expanded flat to form the Wave -b- so that will then need a 5-wave rally to form the Wave -i- and thus will need a Wave -ii-. 

The Aussie has found its high and has formed the bearish Wave -i- and we’ll need to confirm the Wave -ii- for losses to resume.

EURJPY has also formed a Wave i but we may see a pullback higher but I doubt it will be too high but ideally above 124.79 and once the high has been confirmed the downside should continue.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, January 10, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 125.10








EXTREMES

As mentioned yesterday, the market loves to make things difficult. If you recall the puzzle in EURUSD, well it appears that the 1stJanuary high was valid and at 1.1586. The Wave -ii- was 90%. After the deep losses in GBPUSD we saw a 97.4% pullback in Wave (ii) and so AUDUSD decided to follow with a 90.6% retracement in the Wave b/iii. 

Meanwhile, USDJPY was my failure but I struggled to define the development with all the scratchy development. The 109.09 high appears to have been the (blue) Wave i and therefore we have to look for the Wave ii and that appears to need another pullback lower first…

Even USDCHF made a new low but seems to have been a final Wave b/v. This pair is a total pain in the backside but… we should now see stronger Dollar gains now.

To complete the final pair – EURJPY – we have probably seen the final high in the (brown) Wave (b) so we should expect losses, particularly because USDJPY appears to need losses along with EURUSD. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, January 9, 2019

MAINTAIN THE DOLLAR BULLISH OUTLOOK

Gosh, the market loves to make things difficult. Clearly, we’re at the early stages of the Dollar rally and we have quite some way to go but we should see limited corrections and – at some point – we’ll begin to see the rally accelerate. Certainly, the Asian centre normally provides limited moves and I suspect we’re going to see a pullback lower first. Once that has been completed the Dollar upside should begin to see that acceleration. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD are in this situation.

I’ve taken a different outlook for USDJPY. I doubt we’ll see acceleration but the risk of a triangle – or just a 3-wave rally. This should also see USDCHF pushing higher…

I’m debating whether the Aussie will drop lower – or a final new high before losses begin to develop. Take note of the break level as I’ve mentioned but I doubt we’ll see that breached. 

As for EURJPY, we should soon see a high for a reversal. Ideally this should be a limited break above the current high for a reversal lower… Let’s face it, EURUSD and GBPUSD are likely to see decent losses over the day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, January 7, 2019

STILL FOCUS ON THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

After a break over the Xmas period, I'm back and now the market has settled we should see some decent gains in the Dollar.

I have looked into the curious case of the EURUSD highs. We have three options: the 1.1586 high, the 1.1496 high and 1.1479. The 1.1586 high was on the 1stJanuary but I’m discounting that as an aberration due to the extreme lack of liquidity. I have 1.1496 from FXPro on the 2ndJanuary and finally the Reuters high at 1.1479. I have decided to use the Reuters price – but allow for 1.1496. I shall follow both the FXPro and Reuters to try and validate the correct structure. 

Friday’s much deeper pullback in GBPUSD came as a surprise. There is still a risk of a minor new high along with EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY but I suspect we should see the Dollar reverse back to the upside pretty quickly – perhaps it could even see direct Dollar gains. Either way, it should see the Dollar pushing higher over the day. 

EURJPY is rather difficult. We have a rising wedge although I feel it needs to move higher but that will need a stronger push higher in USDJPY and maybe a break above the (brown) Wave -b- in EURUSD. Therefore, take care once we have seen some more constructive development after the open.

As for AUDUSD, I can’t say we have any bearish reversal indications but we have already seen a very deep Wave [b]/[iii] so there really isn’t much room on the upside. Therefore, still focus on the Dollar upside.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey