Tuesday, December 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD




TARGET MET AT 0.7204





AFTER YESTERDAY’S DEEP PULLBACK – WE SHOULD SEE A STRONGER DOLLAR

The depth of the pullback in 3 of the 4 majors (GBPUSD was pretty limited) was not on my expectation list. Part of the issue was that it must have been a 5-wave decline and a deep pullback in the Wave b/iii. That allowed USDJPY and USDCHF to drop like a stone. We should have seen the lows – perhaps a mild dip perhaps – but overall there’s very limited room – particularly in EURUSD that approached the limit by just 6 points. So guess what… We should see the Dollar reverse back to the upside.

In GBPUSD, I was looking for deeper losses – but that didn’t happen. However, adjusting the initial decline it did form a 5-wave move – so we’ve seen the Wave [a]/[v] and most likely the Wave [b]/[v] also. Therefore, we should be heading down to below 1.2477 to a minimum of 1.2459 thru to 1.2382.

The forecast for the Wave [c]/[iii] in EURJPY remains valid. We just have to see a stronger reversal lower in EURUSD.

As for the Aussie… was there a bank holiday down under? The range was just 20 points over the past two days. Nope, I just checked. No holiday. Perhaps they are watching the cricket. It’s about time it broke lower…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, December 17, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



WAVE III TARGET MET AT 1.1270 AND WAVE IV AT 1.1303





WE COULD/SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS FROM THE START

First of all, I realised that I booked my flight back to the UK a day too early… a factor of leaving the house before midnight but flying just after midnight. What I shall do, particularly because the market will likely begin to slow down from, probably Thursday through to the New Year, I shall try and provide a general outlook over the Xmas period through to the 31stDecember. I fly back on the 1stJanuary. 

So, for today, while there may be a minor pullback in the Dollar – and I mean minor – we should see the Dollar follow-through higher pretty much from the start. I imagine that we’ll not see a rush out of the blocks but a rather slow development, rather like GBPUSD grudgingly seeing losses. We have seen a half of the 5-wave decline from the Wave [iv]. So perhaps we can see the second half over today – perhaps into tomorrow – but once that has been seen, it will trigger the second decline. That’s pretty much the same in EURUSD although it has only just found its Wave iv. USDCHF has the potential for an expanded flat but should head higher.


There’s a good chance we’ll see direct gains in USDJPY from the start, particularly because EURJPY appears to need a pullback higher. With a (hopefully) slow start to the week, it will allow the pullback in the cross. Once it has found its top we can begin to see deeper losses.

Finally, the Aussie has seen some decent losses for a pullback in a Wave b/iii position. It may see a little more. However, keep watching for bearish reversal indications for losses to resume.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, December 14, 2018

WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS

Strange day. It seemed as if the market came to a point where it really didn’t know where it wanted to go. Even the early stages of the bullish Dollar it was really difficult to work out with some pretty darn lower and higher degrees joining in. However, after all that, we are now heading higher in the Dollar. Even then, as far as I can see, we are most likely to see some heavy and tricky swings on the way. Therefore, either keep to the lower degrees for short-term trades or weather the storm that will take us up higher in the Dollar. 

USDJPY continued on its upward path and has further to go. GBPUSD fumbled and even made a minor new high but it’s time for losses – and likely below 1.2477. USDCHF woke up with sleep in its eyes, saw a minor recovery but went back to sleep so we should see gains today. EURUSD rumbled and fumbled through a Wave i and (most likely) Wave ii so we should see losses over the day. 

EURJPY, one of its favourite joys are deep Wave ii’s. (Even deep Wave b/iii’s.) This will require USDJPY to push higher more slowly while EURUSD needs to see some stronger losses. 

The Aussie looks like reversing lower but make sure that the 0.7216 and 0.7209 lows break. This should then see further losses… Note that the rising channel has been penetrated…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, December 13, 2018

WE SAW THE EXPECTED DEEP DOLLAR PULLBACK – NOW WE SHOULD SEE GAINS

Over the range of the pairs I use, we actually had quite a range of developments. EURUSD did see a deep pullback. I’d like to think that we have found its high. That USDJPY took the day off to form a limited expanded flat was one of my alternatives. GBPUSD actually saw a much deeper pullback from the 1.2477 low – but it’s still valid. From there we shall need a 3-wave decline being in a Wave [v]. 

The Swissie needed an adjustment once we reached the 0.9977 high and followed by a pullback at 0.9916. Will it hold or could it just see direct gains. Even if we get a minor new low, it should still point higher. 

Overall, I get the impression that we’re going to see some swings over the day – particularly with GBPUSD looking for a Wave [a]/[v] and likely a modestly deep pullback in Wave [b]/[v] before moving lower. Therefore, it tends to suggest some shorter-term profits today – rather than a massive trend. Thus, could allow AUDUSD to see a mildly deep pullback higher but I doubt any firm strength.

I’m still struggling in EURJPY. I want to call a final cap but with USDJPY pushing higher and EURUSD lower, it doesn’t suggest a trend here also…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, December 12, 2018

UMM… EARLY DOLLAR PULLBACK – LATER GAINS

Yesterday worked pretty well – seeing the Dollar pullback lower and later in the day to see Dollar gains. For most of the majors we should see the same development – a pullback lower in the Dollar, probably modestly deep. It is just GBPUSD that may break the pattern because it needs a dip lower first before a pullback. There is also the potential for USDJPY to see some sideways consolidation but overall it should be heading higher

So it’s basically an almost carbon copy of yesterday by the look of things.

The Aussie does what it wants to do. Well, perhaps they like to see ragged development, whipping one way and then the other but they finally manage to get down to the structure. I suspect we’ll see a pullback higher like the other majors but overall we should be heading lower.

Finally, EURJPY looks like following the majors for a while. Overall, we should see losses over the day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, December 11, 2018

6th DECEMBER FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2606




EARLY DOLLAR PULLBACK – LATER GAINS

And the loser was… GBPUSD – but that was already a certainty. After all the wriggling and strangling at the tops, it just whipped down towards the 1.2604 target, a minor pullback and lower again. It’s going to see some swings but end up lower again. Meanwhile, while the EU guys saw a lesser decline but we should soon see a pullback also. 

Meanwhile, USDCHF also finally managed to drag itself from the lows while EURUSD is closing in on a 5-wave decline. Basically, the Asian and early European development appear to be corrective then we should – at some point – continue on the Dollar upside.

USDJPY has just reached the (navy) Wave -a-/-iii- to see a pullback lower – and later in the day we should head higher once more. Add EURUSD to USDJPY we should see a second 5-wave decline to form a Wave -c-/-i- for a pullback

I suspect we’ll see the Aussie moving lower over the day but it has a rather difficult development. I suggest some care in this pair. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, December 10, 2018

BEDLAM (squared) ALL SORTED – NOW WE SEE DOLLAR GAINS

Gee… seriously, we saw Dollar losses on Friday?! Well, it managed it but I can’t see that it can be repeated. The Dollar downside has only a few pips before reversing to the upside. Perhaps we could see a minor pullback lower from the open but over the day we should now begin to build the Dollar upside again. For the majority of pairs, we still need to form the (Dollar) bullish foundation waves. If there is any pair that could react strongly, then it’s probably GBPUSD. 

If there is any Dollar-currency pair that could see Dollar losses – then it’s AUDUSD. The decline from the 0.7394 high appears to have seen a 5-wave decline with a decent bullish divergence. I would be shocked if we saw direct losses. However, how deep is a Wave b/i? Well, as I write, it has broken below Friday’s low… 

GBPUSD and EURUSD have gapped lower and USDCHF has gapped higher. That puts USDJPY in a tizzy…

Be prepared from minor Dollar corrective losses but we should see some decent Dollar gains today.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, December 6, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2798





DOLLAR TO EXTEND HIGHER

Well, we saw the pullback lower in the Dollar as expected – GBPUSD reaching the higher targets I suggested – EURUSD didn’t really require a deep correction. The Swissie managed a sideways move but ready for further gains while USDJPY pushed higher as expected. This should see the Dollar extending higher today…

Even the Aussie triggered a deep decline. However, it developed in a 5-wave decline so we should be looking for a pullback – and that will provide us with a puzzle as to how deep the correction will be.

As expected, having seen a Wave I in EURJPY we have seen a decent rally and may just see a little higher but with EURUSD expected to see losses and USDJPY seeing gains, it tends to suggest a rather limited range today. 

Focus on the majors. This should see a decent push higher in the Dollar.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, December 5, 2018

DOLLAR PULLBACK AND REVERSAL HIGHER

I clearly got caught with the expanded flat in GBPUSD – the high within a whisker of the extreme. I hadn’t expected that pullback because the earlier Wave ii was deep enough already. That allowed EURUSD to make a new high – again with the high a mere 4 points below the extreme. In USDJPY I’ve had to adjust the 5-wave moves higher to accommodate the extreme pullback in a Wave -ii-. All of these still provide valid (Dollar) upside daily targets. I’m still working through a 5-wave in USDJPY that began in June 2013…

So… we’re going to form bullish foundation waves in USDJPY before any stronger move. EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD need a pullback lower in the Dollar. Once they have been established we can get back to the larger Dollar upside.

With USDJPY moving higher along with the pullback in EURUSD, we should see a pullback in EURJPY. Yesterday’s low was the second 5-wave decline and therefore it formed a Wave i. The pullback higher will form the Wave ii. Once EURUSD has had enough on the upside we should begin to see losses once more.

I had to work through the daily losses AUDUSD to form the Wave (a)/(iii) and from there – as far as I can see, we need one more push higher before losses resume. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING



Monday, December 3, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1305







EARLY DOLLAR PULLBACK LOWER AND LATER REVERSAL

Having written the headline, there are some variances. For the most part, the headline should be correct. I have EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD expecting a pullback higher from the start. USDJPY should see a push higher along with USDCHF. However, while USDJPY appears to be more bullish, USDCHF seems to require a minor new high and then a pullback lower. 

However, as the day develops the pullback lower in the Dollar, we should come to a point when we should see the resumption of the Dollar upside. Most likely the best template is to follow EURUSD due to the fact it will be forming a Wave b/iii. How deep? Modest - maybe mildly firm - but there is a limit. At the same time, we should see USDCHF pulling back lower before it can see a higher move. This should also see GBPUSD seeing a 5-wave rally and followed later by a reversal back to the downside. This will likely be the same in AUDUSD.

EURJPY should see a pullback higher having seen a 5-wave decline and that should see both EURUSD and – to a lesser degree USDJPY – providing a peak and later reversal…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey