Friday, November 30, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 113.18




WE SHOULD SEE THE DOLLAR RISE AGAIN

Yesterday was a rather ragged day but for most of the pairs the Dollar managed to see some gains. Indeed, I suspect we shall see a new high in EURUSD – but only a minor one. Once that has been seen we should have a quorum to then see all pairs looking to the Dollar upside. Having said that, we are seeing some early foundation waves. For example, after a minor new high in GBPUSD we have seen a Wave a/i. As you can expect we shall need a Wave b/i and then down to the Wave c/i and back higher in Wave ii. Only then we can begin to see deeper losses.

It’s pretty much the same in USDJPY that should reach a Wave a over today and likely a pullback. USDCHF should form a 5-wave rally, a pullback and then further gains. That should leave EURUSD with its rather complicated consolidation – a new high – and only then it can build the bearish foundation waves. 

One pair that could be quite clear is AUDUSD – bearish…

As for EURJPY, I suspect a minor new high and then a reversal back lower.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, November 29, 2018

AFTER THE PULLBACK – WE SHOULD SEE THE DOLLAR RISE AGAIN

It wasn’t quite so much of a bit of a mixed bag yesterday as I expected. A couple of errors provided, within the previous Dollar gains – a lower degree development that formed the larger degree and that allowed a deep pullback across all the pairs. I think we have found the highs – but we may need to see minor follow-through on the Dollar downside – but overall we now have a solid road in the next Dollar rally. This will probably see the Asian and European sessions forming the Dollar bullish foundations waves – and once seen, we can get back on the Dollar high road. 

The deep corrections seen, it allowed the Aussie to rise once more to form an expanded flat to replace the earlier Wave [ii] to reach the 0.7330. So like the majors, it will need to form the bearish foundation waves for losses. 

The odd one out was EURJPY. However, I am a little puzzled with the structure that seemed to suggest an expanded flat within an expanded flat. It doesn’t appear to be valid but I couldn’t find any other solution. I’d suggest taking care with this… We may just see some further consolidation depending on the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, November 28, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 113.87





SOME PULLBACKS/SOME FOLLOW-THROUGH TODAY

It’s a bit of a mixed bag today. 

Yesterday provided the Dollar gains I had expected. Some pairs still appear to need a bullish follow-through but should then see a pullback lower. The puzzle is whether we’ll see a basic range day or whether the market will continue to gnash teeth and return to the Dollar upside. However, I can see the potential for a rather quirky range of development. Certainly, I can’t see ravaging rushes in either direction but we should be aware of the structure. 

If that is the case, then I suspect it will be towards the end of the day. If there is any pair that could be Dollar bullish then I then it’ll be EURUSD, USDCHF – perhaps AUDUSD also although but it does have the risk of a slow rambling day. 

USDJPY should drag EURJPY lower but the cross has been rather tough to generate any strong moves at this stage and this trend may well continue. 

Basically, it looks like a mostly conflicting development so best take profits when made…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, November 27, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1384






PULLBACK AND LATER FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

It’s hardly been a frenetic market but it has been steady. From the Asian start, we are seeing pullbacks on the Dollar downside but there’s not a lot of room and by European time we should be heading back to the Dollar upside. I have to say that the GBPUSD triangle failed. It was quite clear by the general limits in a Wave iii were much too strong so I’m now working with a bog standard development. By the time the U.S. gets up, we should then see the stronger Dollar gains. 

EURJPY appears to have completed a rather ragged triangle and that will see EURUSD providing the oomph on the downside. This should see USDJPY rather less bullish compared to yesterday. Ideally, we should see a decent decline – but just as a caution – I suspect this will form a Wave i and Wave ii and then possibly a strong Wave a – just to allow a pullback higher.

I had thought that we may have seen a break of the (cyan) Wave [ii] but it seems we are likely to form a 5-wave move to see losses well below the 0.7200 area… 

Keep track of the early stages – but overall we should still be heading higher in the Dollar.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, November 26, 2018

DOLLAR PULLBACK AND REVERSAL

Friday ended the week with a new Dollar high having seen losses in EURUSD (from the (brown) Wave [ii]) to reach the Wave [a] while USDJPY appears to have seen a lower degree Wave i and Wave ii – followed by a 5-wave move. USDCHF also provided Dollar gains – and may see a pullback. GBPUSD completed the Wave ^d and thus will need a pullback. Therefore, the majors appear to be correlated. 

I do have some reservations in GBPUSD – having the EU leaders preparing to sign off the Brexit deal but as long as the 1.2976 does not break we should still be looking for losses. Very clearly, EURUSD MUST go lower so I really don’t think we are going to see GBPUSD suddenly rushing higher. However, I have to provide the alternative. 

The Aussie should also see an early pullback – rather similar to EURUSD and GBPUSD – before losses resume. 

That just leaves EURJPY – most likely – completing the triangle…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, November 23, 2018

SLOW START, POTENTIAL TRIANGLES – UNDERYLING DOLLAR BULLISH

Apart from Cable, the market was pretty limited. That’s a normal U.S. holiday. Of course, with the news of a “Brexit deal within our grasp” according to Theresa May, we had a minor whiplash but one that was limited to within a bearish outlook. I may be cynical but frankly, all parties in this process are politicians. That means … “me, me… I want power…” It ain’t gonna happen yet.

We now have the potential for two triangles. EURJPY has been developing through to the Wave ^c while GBPUSD has a strong chance of forming a triangle also – but a lesser version of EURJPY. This could provide the early stages – through Asia and Europe – before North America should push the Dollar higher. Even USDJPY appears to be eking out a long triangle also.

This leaves EURUSD having the potential to form a triple three – or just losses while USDCHF has room above and below the current sideways move. This is pretty much the same in AUDUSD that has formed a double zigzag so we’ll have to see whether it will just take out the bearish side or a triple three. I wouldn’t be surprised with the other pairs that we shall see a triple three. Once seen- then we can get back on the Dollar bullish route… 

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, November 20, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR EURUSD AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1465



TARGET MET AT 1.2885








NOW FOR THE REVERSAL

It was quite interesting to see the range of development through the major pairs. We saw a ragged but limited decline in USDJPY to form an expanded flat, a firm EURUSD and rather sharp losses in USDCHF to form an expanded flat. Finally, GBPUSD managed to complete a triple three with the high just 5-pips above the previous high. 

So while I would have preferred a shorter time frame to complete each of the pairs, we have established the final Dollar lows and it’s time for a firmer Dollar to impose itself as the dominant currency. 

However, excluding GBPUSD (which has formed the first leg of Wave a) the other pairs are going to need to start from the Dollar lows and they’ll probably lag behind the Pound. So it seems that we may have to work through those foundation waves and allow the Pound to do its own funky stuff.

In EURJPY, I tend to feel we’re going to see a triangle – so best keep clear until we get to the end before it can break lower again.

Just a small break above the recent high in AUDUSD will do the trick…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, November 19, 2018

LIMITED DOLLAR DOWNSIDE FOR A REVERSAL

I haven’t quite caught some of the pairs. However, over today and through the week, we should – at last – see the Dollar finally gets to see a stronger move higher. This should see a quite (as usual) Asian session and followed by a final Dollar low to then – probably towards the European (perhaps early North American session) to revert back to the Dollar upside. 

I can’t see a runaway move because we’re back to having to develop Dollar bullish foundation waves. So today doesn’t look like a “wham bang thank you mam” day but a rather whippy/swing type development. Once we get through those foundation waves we are more likely to see a stronger Dollar. 

USDJPY may have seen the low – having seen an expanded flat – but may have a final dip lower before rallying back higher. There’s hardly much room on the topside in EURUSD and this could be the same with USDCHF – having seen a sharper decline than I had expected. 

GBPUSD has seen a pullback higher. It has a little more room to explore but over the day we should begin to see losses – while over the other side of the planet AUDUSD needs a pullback and a new high before losses. 

It’s only EURJPY that’s a little tricky – but frankly, I tend to feel that it could see a possible triangle before losses resume.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  



FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING



Friday, November 16, 2018

FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

It wasn’t quite the way I wanted yesterday. The very best pairs were in GBPUSD and EURJPY. Otherwise, it seems as if we had a little more development to be seen in the rest of the pairs but after the highs in EURUSD and a minor new low in USDCHF (that I had warned could happen) it looks like now that we have all the 4-majors looking towards a consensus in a Dollar bullish development. Even then, due to EURUSD making a new high, this tends to suggest bearish foundation waves – and for GBPUSD to extend losses again today.

After having completely screwed up the bullish move in USDJPY, I had to work hard to establish the bullish move and that should also see USDCHF make further gains. I suspect this will form the foundation waves for some decent Dollar gains. 

AUDUSD is now looking for losses. EURJPY should see losses resume…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, November 15, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD AND EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3074



TARGET MET AT 1.1348








WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT DOLLAR GAINS TODAY

With the Brexit cabinet approval all sorted out - and a rather ragged triple three in GBPUSD – we should now be looking for the Dollar to resume its move higher. USDCHF provided a second zigzag lower, USDJPY saw a deep pullback that needed a minor adjustment – also in EURUSD. As far as I can see, all of the 4 majors should now have a quorum for the Dollar to push higher. 

Even the Aussie has completed a triple three and this will prompt a 5-wave decline at to form a Wave [i] from where a pullback should be seen. This looks very similar to USDJPY… At the same time, GBPUSD may well form the bearish foundation waves. 

In EURJPY I suspect a rather ragged decline with EURUSD likely to see deeper losses while USDJPY creeps higher – or perhaps sees a consolidation. Overall, in the larger picture, it still suggests losses. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, November 14, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 113.58




LOOKS LIKE WE’LL GET BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE…

Well, that was (not) a fun day. I knew somehow that something wasn’t quite right – and it actually was a strange day. We should allow for a slightly deeper pullback lower in the Dollar initially but overall, through the day, we’re going to revert back to seeing Dollar gains. Indeed, as I am writing this we are approaching some pretty high pullbacks so it won’t take long to reverse back to the Dollar upside. Even AUDUSD has been marking a triple three pullback and is on the verge – maybe has seen the final high perhaps – so the Dollar should hold firm. 

Therefore, we shall still need care, initially to develop the bullish foundation waves but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal back to the most recent Dollar highs.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, November 13, 2018

MINOR FOLLOW-THROUGH AND PULLBACK – PERHAPS RANGE TRADING

The Dollar provided the push higher for the most part and we should see those highs early in the Asian centre. EURUSD should soon see the (cyan) Wave -a- for a pullback – equally USDCHF also. GBPUSD saw some decent losses – but equally quite a deep pullback in the Wave iv. This tends to suggest the potential for a minor new low to form the (cyan) Wave -a-/-iii- and a pullback in Wave -b-/-iii-. I had expected a stronger rally in USDJPY but instead decided that it wanted to form an expanded flat - although it hasn’t yet completed. 

This tends to suggest that we should be looking to take short-term profits over today and maybe into tomorrow. 

Even EURJPY is approaching a (purple) Wave -a-/-iii- so that basically should see a pullback and once USDJPY has completed the expanded flat it should rally to the targets I had expected yesterday. That should provide a decent pullback in the cross.

As for AUDUSD… well, it failed to reach above 0.7314 but finally decided that it would just go and break below the Wave iv… So we should have seen the high… 

Overall, take care today. It suggests a ragged development…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, November 12, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 128.72 



WE SHOULD SEE FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS TODAY

For the most part, I am looking for the Dollar to remain bullish. The more important issue is whether the start of the day could see a bearish pullback. I suspect not in USDJPY - but USDCHF does seem to have potential pullbacks before the Dollar begins to bloom. EURUSD needs to see losses. I also find that GBPUSD developed a Wave -i- at the end of Friday and minor pullback. That we’re talking about the normal Asian preference for a limited range, it makes sense that we should wait for a pullback. However, the alternative is a break lower…

It’s just USDJPY that appears to have a risk of direct gains – but perhaps it could just see an initial spindly range… 

When looking at a Wave -a-/-iii- in EURUSD that has hardly managed to make any gains at the end of Friday, along with a possible consolidation – or just further gains – it makes sense that EURJPY should see a pullback higher right from the start. Once we move into the European session – perhaps North America also - I suspect we’ll begin to see some Dollar gains.

…And what about the Aussie? We still haven’t completed the expanded flat – and even then we saw a pullback. This may have been just a long and ragged Wave v that still needs to reach above 0.7316…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, November 9, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3085-90






EARLY PULLBACK AND LATER FOLLOW-THROUGH

We appear to have a quorum in terms of the majors having completed the Dollar losses for now. As we set forth into the Asian centre, it looks like we have a minor consolidation – as normal – but this will be a time to allow some pairs to generate a Dollar pullback while others need a new high and then a reversal. Once we have gotten through to the European session, we’re more likely to see the Dollar raise its hand to push the Dollar higher. 

Indeed, yesterday saw the reversal through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds to the Dollar bullish side. Perhaps we may see a pullback back to the Cloud (Dollar) lows before heading back higher. 

EURJPY is rather difficult but we should see a dip lower and a pullback. We may even have to suffer a consolidation with USDJPY expecting gains overall and, of course, a bearish EURUSD… Therefore, take care in the decline.

The Aussie… ohhhh… the Aussie. All it had to do was tip above the 0.7314 high but it stalled 13 pips below and completed an expanded flat. Therefore, we should see the high today – and just in time for when the majors have completed their consolidation…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, November 7, 2018

MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 129.90



BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Yesterday was a rather limp and basically negative day. EURUSD and USDCHF saw slow, lacklustre and tedious day – and conformed to yesterday’s headline that suggested complications. However, I think today will be a more constructive day and now looking for the Dollar to rise once more. GBPUSD has either seen its high – or will only need a marginal new high. USDCHF formed a Wave i and Wave ii, while EURUSD formed a simple zigzag. Thus we should begin to see some decent moves to the Dollar upside. 

In the meantime, USDJPY confirmed the upside also and has formed a decent rally. It may see a slightly deeper pullback but overall it should see steady gains once again. With USDJPY pushing higher along with EURUSD, it is approaching a barrier in EURJPY. This tends to suggest that EURUSD will generate some solid losses.

The past two days have seen a slow, gentle pullback higher but it’s now time for losses… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, November 6, 2018

STILL SOME COMPLICATIONS

The good news is that EURUSD has formed the bearish foundation waves. The bad news is that GBPUSD opted to form a triple three. However, we may have just seen the final high – but could be just a bit higher. This will suit USDCHF as it should be heading higher and – after a long sideways move – I suspect we’ll finally break above the 113.39 high…

Therefore, over the day we should be looking for a Dollar bullish rally. 

Having said that, GBPUSD – having been a pain in the backside – it will then need to develop the bearish foundation waves before any stronger decline. How this balances through the pairs is rather difficult to judge the correlation through the structures. 

I’m slightly uncertain on EURJPY having seen a (potential) double top. We may just see losses – or alternatively a new higher for a reversal lower. Note that USDJPY must break above 113.39 to provide the “oomph” to generate gains while EURUSD should – at some point – turn lower…

I’m still looking for AUDUSD to move lower – and I’d like to see a break below 0.7181 to confirm…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, November 5, 2018

STILL FORMING THE BULLISH FOUNDATION WAVES

I wasn’t too happy with the additional Dollar losses on Friday but it didn’t last too long. Once we had completed that blip I got my own way. Still, these foundation waves are likely to be quite bulky so we’re going to have to be patient for the meantime. In these stages, there should be short-term opportunities for taking limited trades. I also suspect we’ll see the early stages after open will provide a pullback lower in the Dollar. It shouldn’t last too long (unless it turns into a complex correction) but once we have gotten through that stage we’ll be back on the Dollar bullish side.

In USDJPY, I suddenly had an epiphany. There appears to have been a triangle in the final losses to 111.38 that then confirmed a triple three. This should then conform to the Dollar bullish outcome. 

I had to work through the Aussie from the end of September due to the sudden rush higher. It appears that, instead of an impulsive wave, we are either seeing an expanded flat but I suspect that, more likely an irregular triangle. It could even be a descending triangle… I suspect that due to the expectation of Dollar gains.

As for the cross – EURJPY – I suspect a final rally before it finally reverses lower. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, November 2, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3036



A REVERSAL TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Well, that was pretty quick… I had expected that we’d see the Dollar lows on Monday. EURUSD and AUDUSD have both completed their respective expanded flats – although the Aussie developed in a super rally – but it’s done and dusted now. USDCHF was very blasé on the pullback but then it didn’t really need to see a deep correction. Equally, GBPUSD has managed a double zigzag and this should be the final high although it has the potential for a triple three. However, I very much doubt this.

So… what about USDJPY? While EURUSD and GBPUSD were playing with swings and roundabouts USDJPY appeared to be on a holiday (but not for me.) I’ve tried to see if there is any chance of a break above the 113.39 but I just cannot see any chance of that break because of the double zigzag lower and I can’t see any alternative but losses… 

This tends to suggest we are going to see a rather slow end of the week, probably due to foundation waves that need to be built. 

As for EURJPY, we have seen a double zigzag and with USDJPY looking lower along with EURUSD, it tends to suggest a bearish day for the cross… 

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, November 1, 2018

MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 1.0097 YESTERDAY





A BIT OF WEIRDNESS GOING ON…

To be honest, perhaps I should clarify the headline. There are some pairs that are beginning to do strange things – in particular in AUDUSD and – to an extent in EURUSD and EURJPY is always rather trying.

Let’s start with USDJPY that completed the expanded flat – almost testing the Wave -x- high. This should now see a final zigzag lower. That’s the kinda easy one although we’ll obviously have to navigate the development. USDCHF saw a pretty firm follow-through to form the (green) Wave (a). So both of these pairs should see losses.

Then came the divorce. EURUSD dropped below 1.1335 while GBPUSD spurned the EU and rallied. Actually, this is pretty clever. The losses in EURUSD were corrective – therefore the low of an expanded flat. That will then see a 5-wave rally. At the same time, GBPUSD needs a deeper pullback to keep the balance of the ratios. Once EURUSD tops out we’ll be back on the Dollar bullish road – but clearly, this isn’t going to happen all today.

EURJPY has become dizzy, rather like a toddler trying to write. However, I suspect that it may see lower before a further pullback but this is a rather difficult development.

The drunken Aussie… it makes gains then decides it wants to dip back lower, then back up again – and down… This is very close to being a possible descending triangle but the level that needs to break is in the report. However, at this point, there still remains the potential for an expanded flat… Take care…

Good trading
Ian Copsey