Wednesday, October 31, 2018

DOLLAR HIGHS BEING HIT

In fact, I realised that I made a mistake early on after the 1.1816 in EURUSD and that the 1.1335 low was the final low… Hence, I was rather cautious yesterday because we were seeing a corrective development. We have seen USDJPY complete the expanded flat. I would like one more blip higher in USDCHF – but a limited follow-through for a reversal to the downside and that’s the same thought for GBPUSD. By the time I have written the report, we should have seen all 4 majors completing their respective development. 

So we really know what’s going to happen – a correction lower in the Dollar… I suspect this will be a modest correction rather than deep. We also have a pair – USDJPY that has a limited downside that could provide the clues for the other pairs. So far, EURUSD has formed a 5-wave move and the correction lower. This should also spur the creepy crawly EURJPY to generate a rather ragged bullish development – perhaps the potential for an expanded flat at this stage. 

That AUDUSD has been slowly edging higher – contrary to the other pairs – has been quite exceptional but this is also in an expanded flat so now we should now have all $$ pairs back in line together…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 30, 2018

A SLOW END TO THE DOLLAR GAINS

I had high hopes that we could have seen some constructive development yesterday. Actually, in some pairs, they’re doing quite well. The real bugbear is EURUSD. It has started on the downside but appears to have a risk of a complex correction. However, perhaps it’s not such an issue because USDJPY appears to have the same issue. USDCHF appears to have formed the lower degree Wave iv and Wave a/v and thus we need a pullback lower and then further gains. That GBPUSD has completed a Wave -a-/-v-, it suggests pullback higher. Once the pullback has been seen the downside does have potential for some further losses.

However, just for this session, I suspect we are going to see a rather ragged development – mostly consolidation – and likely a rather slow and difficult day…

That leaves EURJPY that has seen a 3-wave pullback – which tends to have a risk of a consolidation. It doesn’t generate great confidence in establishing targets…

Perhaps the only pair that could complete a move – or part of – is AUDUSD that needs further gains today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 29, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2777






TIME FOR A REVERSAL?

It certainly has a chance of seeing a reversal back to the Dollar downside today – maybe into tomorrow. Looking at the low in USDJPY appears to suggest gains while the expectation of EURUSD pushing for losses and for USDCHF for a final high. At the same time, GBPUSD should follow the same template as EURUSD. 

It’s all about swings and roundabouts. 

With USDJPY rally and EURUSD declining, there doesn’t seem to be much of a range in EURJPY. It has certainly found a low and on Friday’s reversal a 5-wave rally. Considering that we’re going to see these two pairs forming a potential complex correction in EURJPY – perhaps a triangle, flat or expanded flat as far as I can see.

While the majors appear to be pretty set to see these swings, the Aussie seems to be the odd man out. As far as I can see, it looks like it needs some swings, initially lower, but overall it looks like an expanded flat should develop…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 26, 2018

STILL DOLLAR LIMITED GAINS

The Dollar bullishness has certainly slowed down and I’m expecting to see limited bullish swings but I don’t think it’s going to find its high today. Most likely I suspect that Monday or Tuesday will trigger a pullback. 

I am finding all this rather strange though. While EURUSD and GBPUSD are basically generally correlated at the moment – and these two pairs are the ones that shall see limited Dollar bullish swings – USDJPY and USDCHF appear to be looking at a stronger Dollar bullish move. Perhaps I’ve made an error somewhere – at least in USDCHF. I’ve been trying to find an alternative outlook but let’s just say that I’m not too confident of a bullish Dollar seeing rampant gains. However, USDJPY appears to be bullish. Still, take care.

The Aussie is still set for losses – although there is still an alternative because it formed a double zigzag and we haven’t broken below the first Wave x. As for EURJPY, we should see a limited follow-through to a new low and followed by a pullback. 

Take care. There is a chance of some complications as we move to the final Dollar highs. Don’t expect too much of a trend as we approach the final Dollar highs.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 25, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1379






STILL DOLLAR GAINS – BUT MORE LIMITED

As expected, we have seen some decent Dollar gains but we haven’t yet completed the rally just yet. It’s coming soon – maybe tomorrow but could edge into next week. Equally, with USDJPY having formed a Wave -i- at 112.76 we have suffered a deep Wave -ii-. At the same time – although more a stubby pullback in USDCHF, we should now see gains in both pairs. The final pair in the 4-majors, GBPUSD has seen some decent losses but still needs further follow-through.

Having said all that, these moves now should see greater swings as we approach the next support that should see a deeper pullback. 

Even the Aussie has followed the Dollar higher and it has some way to reach the (cyan) Wave [iii]. Once that has been seen it will need the Wave [iv] and Wave [v]. Once it has done that it will reach a larger degree Wave -iii-. 

Finally, EURJPY has also been seeing some decent losses and should soon see a low for a limited pullback to then see the Wave [c]/[i] that will then need a deeper pullback.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, October 24, 2018

NOT QUITE AS EXPECTED BUT THE DOLLAR STILL NEEDS GAINS

The lower degree development is always tricky. Over the past week, we have seen the lower degree waves – that should really be down below in the sub-1-minute development – providing the correct development. I have gone down to that level on occasions but it would just take up so much time that the development would take over an hour (or more) for just one currency pair. 

Nevertheless, we’re still on the Dollar bullish route but with stronger swings than I would have liked. I also suspect this will continue to develop through today and perhaps through the rest of the week. 

USDJPY suffered a deep pullback in an expanded flat – so we should be looking back to where we have been – and this time for a stronger bullish move. Equally, EURUSD continues to create whippy swings – but still with an underlying bullish outcome. USDCHF has been a pain in the backside and that required an alternative development although I’m still not exactly confident of the development – but should be bullish.

GBPUSD saw a modestly deep pullback – and that will equally see follow-through lower today. The Aussie appears to be bearish but I’m still wary until the 0.7042-44 lows – which is tough because it’s the low… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 23, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1551





THE DOLLAR STILL NEEDS GAINS

The start of the week was a rather complicated one. I knew we needed initial losses – in USDJPY we saw a miraculous expanded flat in the Wave ii that had only a 3-pip range to target. The other development was the potential for swings in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The latter could have seen a deeper follow-through higher but once EURUSD reached a pretty deep pullback, both pairs just decided to revert to the downside. 

So, while there is risk of a limited pullback – Asia will likely see a rather shallow range – overall this should see the Dollar following through on the upside. Both USDJPY and USDCHF should see gains. 

While AUDUSD can be rather independent, we have seen a bullish double zigzag but the Wave -x- is still some way lower. Until that Wave -x- breaks lower we have to still be aware of the risk of a triple three. Therefore, take care. 

EURJPY had a bullish day, courtesy of both EURUSD (initially) and USDJPY providing a swing lower and later higher. While EURUSD could see a minor pullback for losses to resume, while USDJPY should likely see gains. The risk could be a consolidation…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 22, 2018

RISK OF SWINGS

The follow-through … didn’t. Basically, this implies that the structure is being elongated within a lower degree development that causes deeper pullbacks before follow-through can develop. In effect, it’s a deep Wave b/iii outlook but in this case, I suspect we shall see a pullback and a second rally to form the Wave b/iii in EURUSD and GBPUSD. 

Equally, there may be the potential for a similar situation in USDCHF and USDJPY but in a slightly different way – that there is a risk of an expanded flat in USDCHF while USDJPY could complete a Wave c/I for a pullback. This tends to suggest a rather slow start to the week. 

Additionally, Friday’s deep wave b/v outlook should now allow the Aussie to complete a triple three.

As for the cross, EURJPY seems to suggest a pullback and later follow-through.

Of course, note the Dollar high extremes that would break the outlook suggested above.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 19, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD AND EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 1.3016



TARGET MET AT 128.32






STILL MORE FOLLOW-THROUGH

We’ve seen some broad swings on the way up in the Dollar. The development is rather difficult within the lower degree price formations and that really makes life quite tough. I wouldn’t be surprised that we shall likely see the same type of swings today. It looks like GBPUSD will soon complete the (cyan) Wave -a- for a correction. 

Most likely USDJPY will be bullish today along with USDCHF while EURUSD will make further losses. Having written that, it is also likely to see a minor pullback before those stronger losses. Most likely the Asian session will provide a limited range but which should provide the reversal back to the Dollar bullish side. 

AUDUSD caught me out. Instead of a single zigzag higher, we have seen a double zigzag. I can’t rule out a final zigzag to complete the triple three – but best wait to confirm. Overall, this should basically turn lower pretty soon to extend losses.

Finally, we should soon see a low in EURJPY. We still have bearish momentum but with a bullish USDJPY and a bearish EURUSD we are likely to see some slow development.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR USDCHF AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.9939


TARGET MET AT 1.3085



WE SHOULD SEE FOLLOW-THROUGH FROM YESTERDAY

Apart from AUDUSD, we basically saw some decent gains in the Dollar – and there’s more to go. Of course, we are likely to see pullbacks at times but the underlying outlook does remain Dollar bullish. It was rather strange in USDJPY that stalled 1 pip below the break level but over the day it was easily broken and this has seen all the 4-majors back on the Dollar upside. 

Strangely, the pullback in AUDUSD reached a 58.6% retracement at 0.7105. Just as USDJPY delayed pushing higher we have either a final rally – or the break below the 58.6% pullback… Therefore, take care.

Overall, if there is any Dollar pullback in the Asian session, it’ll be limited.

For the cross, EURJPY has seen losses as expected and there’s more to go…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, October 17, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 130.30




STILL A RATHER MIXED OUTLOOK

I found yesterday rather strange. Both USDJPY and USDCHF managed to build a rally – which was expected – but GBPUSD and EURUSD also built a rally. I had allowed for strength in GBPUSD but EURUSD was a surprise when it moved above 1.1612… I’m actually now looking for all 4-majors to reverse lower. It’s a rather “what’s the flip” moment. 

The good thing about the rallies in USDJPY and EURUSD was that it provided the opportunity to see a pullback higher in EURJPY to form the Wave -b-/-v- so the risk appears to now be the opposite with EURUSD and USDJPY expected to see losses…

What a strange market…

Meanwhile, down-under, the Aussie weaved its wonky up and down rally and still hasn’t reached its high… Hopefully, it will manage to make the final ascent to the peak today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 16, 2018

MOSTLY A DOLLAR RALLY

When I suggested a Dollar rally, it tends to refer to EURUSD, GBPUSD (but with care) and USDCHF. The other majors – USDJPY and AUDUSD appear to be exactly the opposite. That EURUSD has 5 points above Friday’s 1.1612 high, I cannot see any move higher. That GBPUSD has a 40-point gap to the 1.3258 high I can’t rule out a break above 1.3183 but I’d much prefer a more bearish outlook. That will need some care as the Asian session develops.

USDCHF – if I have my structure is correct, yesterday’s 0.9847 low was a pretty deep pullback. It has only 15 points on the downside to break the structure. If that break level is broken then I shall have to work through the rally from the 0.9542 low. However, I suspect it will be a limited pullback.

USDJPY needs some losses before a reversal back higher…

The Aussie has been moving in a drunken development with pretty difficult swings to navigate but as far as I can see it should be a bullish day. 

As for EURJPY, it has been a rather rough sideways move and I suspect a rally and then a reversal to a new low. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 15, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3258



CAUTIOUS START – LATER DOLLAR TO RALLY

On Friday, we finally saw the Dollar lows. Long live the Dollar. Well, obviously we shall see pullbacks on the way down and in any case, we are really only in the early stages of the gains. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD provided some decent losses. On the open we’re more likely to see a limited pullback before losses continue. I also suspect that USDJPY and USDCHF may see minor pullbacks and then for a stronger rally once again – and most likely USDJPY may well see quite a decent rally. As long as it does, then we could see a move higher in EURJPY. However, it’s a rather tricky development and I remain rather cautious in this pair.

As for the Aussie, it all depends on the first reaction. Ideally, I’d like to see a pullback to the 0.7090-95 area and from there we can expect gains to the 0.7163-75 area. Any break below 0.7090 would likely see deeper losses.

Therefore, look for the initial pullbacks soon after open but later we should be focusing on the Dollar upside.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 12, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR USDCHF AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.9856



TARGET MET AT 1.3248






APART FROM GBPUSD WE SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE DOLLAR LOWS

Across the pairs, we have had a range of reactions. For the most part in the 4 majors we have seen USDJPY, USDCHF and most likely EURUSD, completed the Dollar lows. I’m still a little wary of a new high but it’s basically going to see losses. Therefore, we have only GBPUSD that needs a minor push higher before it turns back lower. What has been quite interesting is the range of development through the three markets. USDCHF has seen quite a solid rally while USDJPY has only managed a mini-minor initial push higher from the 111.83 low. Equally, EURUSD should have seen its high but I’d suggest allowing for a minor new high. 

Once we get past the EURUSD/GBPUSD highs we should begin to see a decent reversal lower. Of course, we’re going to need to work through the initial (Dollar) bullish foundation waves before any real solid gains. 

The Aussie should still see a follow-through higher to complete the bullish zigzag. Once that has been seen then we’ll have a quorum in terms of Dollar direction.

On a note in EURJPY, the recent lows have been rather rough in terms of ratios – or lack of good ratios. I’m rather wary about this but frankly, we should be seeing a consolidation – of sorts – with USDJPY expected to push higher and EURUSD lower. I’d still suggest waiting to break out of this rather difficult structure.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 11, 2018

A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETING THE DOLLAR LOSSES TODAY

Yes, we have seen some solid Dollar losses but, my, what a long and winding road that was required. I almost thought we’d have to go through a roundabout several times to get to where we are now. As a rough guide, USDJPY appears to be in the final stretch. EURUSD needs a whippy bullish development and USDCHF is about to complete the final Wave a for a pullback and a final low. GBPUSD is pointing higher and has a structure very similar to EURUSD – pretty whippy but once we find that high we’ll begin to look towards the Dollar upside…

AUDUSD is a little complicated. I had been expecting a deeper rally but yesterday saw a drop down to just 2 points above the 0.7042 low. I feel that we actually need a second rally – but take care because it’ll be easy to test the 0.7042 low. It may be best to work with breaks.

As I mentioned yesterday, there was a risk of complications in EURJPY. It appears to have been an expanded flat and therefore should see losses. It may just work with a new high in EURUSD and a declining USDJPY. Once EURUSD and USDJPY complete their follow-through we’re more likely to see a more bearish EURUSD compared to USDJPY…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, October 10, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



BULLISH TARGET MET 3 POINTS BELOW 0.9960

FIREST REVERSAL TARGET MET AT 0.9922 - 40






DOLLAR LOSSES TODAY

Well, it seems the development wasn’t quite so complicated. Basically, we are looking down the last legs of the Dollar losses and perhaps we could even complete the losses. If not - then into tomorrow. In EURUSD, as mentioned yesterday, had the potential for an expanded flat. Yesterday’s low was just a few pips from the normal expansion level. Therefore, we know within ranges, where the cap will be. Equally, we have GBPUSD also pointing higher.

What’s more, USDCHF managed to complete the rally that was ongoing and that needs a pullback – but this will be a relatively shallow pullback due to the depth of the Wave (b)/(iii). At the same time, USDJPY has taken the option of extending a second zigzag. 

If there is one issue, then it’s in GBPUSD that appears to need a comparatively stronger follow-through. Perhaps this may not quite reach its target and if so, we’re likely to complete it tomorrow.

This should provide a firmer rally in AUDUSD to then see a reversal – but perhaps this could have the same issue as in GBPUSD that we may have to wait for tomorrow. 

As for EURUSD, I have a feeling it’s going to messy due to the bullish EURUSD and bearish USDJPY. It may even trigger an initial move above 130.23 before losses resume… However, just take care in case there’s a horrid consolidation.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 9, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1460


THIS COULD BE A ROUGH WEEK

I was just about to close down my PC on Friday when I saw a whip and a crack and then I thought… “Oh, perhaps it’s an NFP day.” Let me have a look. (I tend not to even bother with that monthly game.) Basically, it all blended in with the structures I have – just a slight adjustment with those skinny blips that make life a little harder. The outcome appears to be a rather whippy and rough pullback. 

Of the adjustments I made, EURUSD appears to need a new low and pullback. USDJPY also needed an adjustment that triggered a zigzag lower and from this, it may well form a double zigzag – but don’t expect this to develop today. The Swissie needs a 5-wave rally but will then require a pullback. GBPUSD is the opposite of USDCHF – and correlates with the decline in EURUSD and from there we shall need a firmer rally – but I’m not expecting that to develop today.

The Aussie needs a pullback higher and I tend to feel it’ll be a rough and ready set of swings. As for the “cross”, EURJPY needs a Wave v that must reach a higher degree Wave –c-/-iii- for a pullback.

Best work with short-term profit targets…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 5, 2018

MIXED BAGS BETWEEN THE PAIRS

I have to say that the development has been rather rough and ready, but we’re expecting to see those losses. EURUSD still needs losses and USDCHF still needs gains. However, it appears that GBPUSD should be seeing Dollar losses while USDJPY needs a second rally. Coming into a long weekend, I would suggest taking care – although the focus remains in EURUSD and USDCHF to be Dollar bullish today.

The Aussie should follow EURUSD lower – and still needs a modest follow-through but I suspect by the end of the day they may complete find their lows to then move back into the range. This is will really be convenient for EURUSD and USDCHF to complete their Dollar gains for a reversal. It will then have its turn to see a Dollar bearish correction.  

USDJPY is expected to see a rally and EURUSD a follow-through lower. Thus, I wouldn’t be surprised in EURJPY that it could signal a complex correction.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 4, 2018

THE MARKET SEEMS TO LIKE THE DOLLAR

Yesterday provided the goods with a pretty decent rally in the Dollar. It will still need further gains but the early risk is for a pullback lower. This will be the tricky bit. USDJPY may have the potential for direct gains. I’d suggest waiting for a move above 114.60 first – just in case I have made an error due to the very difficult lower degree development. 

Equally, EURUSD also seems to suggest losses but most likely a slower development over the Asian session - perhaps even a consolidation before the losses. 

USDCHF does look like seeing a pullback lower – and would suggest quite a deep one – before further gains can be seen. The same can be said of GBPUSD for a pullback before any losses. This should see EURJPY moving lower once more. How this all balances out seems to require a range of corrections/consolidation spanning Asia and Europe before the Dollar finally manages to push back higher once again. 

As for the Antipodean, it seems to have limited pullbacks and firmer losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, October 3, 2018

STUFF THE DOLLAR LOSSES …

I was shocked by the minor Wave (ii)’s or Wave b/iii’s in several pairs. Well, 27% is kinda ok but (if I have the right Wave (ii) in USDCHF it was just 7.4%.) Having said that, particularly in GBPUSD, the massive cycle from the 1930’s, we should begin to see some acceleration lower. Even so, I was quite shocked with the USDCHF percentage. This should retain an underlying Dollar bullish outlook but that doesn’t rule out fairly deep pullbacks during the process. 

As far as I can see today, we should continue on the Dollar bullish path – with the exception of USDJPY. So far we appear to have seen a double zigzag and we need to complete the final 3-legged that should then trigger a reversal higher.

That EURUSD saw the unexpected losses and USDJPY really not trying to push too much on the downside, EURJPY had a strong bearish day. Over the next few months, we should see some decent losses. 

Even the Aussie took the leap of faith on the downside and has seen some decent losses – and there should be more to go. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 1, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECASTS FOR EURUSD AND USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 1.1570


TARGET MET AT 1.3001








BACK TO A MIXED BAG

I initially wanted to write that we “should see Dollar losses.” That’s partly right but there are some – well, two pairs that suggest they still need further Dollar gains. Yes, we could see an early Dollar pullback lower in the Dollar but it’s pretty limited. Therefore, we’re going to have to work through the pairs piecemeal. 

Basically, EURUSD and GBPUSD should see a Dollar pullback. USDJPY will initially make a new high but then suffer quite a deep pullback. USDCHF may see a minor blip higher – or it had found its high and will move back lower…

Strangely, it seems that the Aussie wants to push higher over the day – although there’s a risk of an early pullback. 

Finally, in EURJPY we have barely any room on the upside – but could be seen in the early stages, but once USDJPY suffers its pullback we should see a rather ratcheting, probably messy development with EURUSD expected to push higher while USDJPY does the opposite. It looks like a rather messy outlook in the cross…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey