Monday, October 15, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3258



CAUTIOUS START – LATER DOLLAR TO RALLY

On Friday, we finally saw the Dollar lows. Long live the Dollar. Well, obviously we shall see pullbacks on the way down and in any case, we are really only in the early stages of the gains. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD provided some decent losses. On the open we’re more likely to see a limited pullback before losses continue. I also suspect that USDJPY and USDCHF may see minor pullbacks and then for a stronger rally once again – and most likely USDJPY may well see quite a decent rally. As long as it does, then we could see a move higher in EURJPY. However, it’s a rather tricky development and I remain rather cautious in this pair.

As for the Aussie, it all depends on the first reaction. Ideally, I’d like to see a pullback to the 0.7090-95 area and from there we can expect gains to the 0.7163-75 area. Any break below 0.7090 would likely see deeper losses.

Therefore, look for the initial pullbacks soon after open but later we should be focusing on the Dollar upside.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 12, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR USDCHF AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.9856



TARGET MET AT 1.3248






APART FROM GBPUSD WE SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE DOLLAR LOWS

Across the pairs, we have had a range of reactions. For the most part in the 4 majors we have seen USDJPY, USDCHF and most likely EURUSD, completed the Dollar lows. I’m still a little wary of a new high but it’s basically going to see losses. Therefore, we have only GBPUSD that needs a minor push higher before it turns back lower. What has been quite interesting is the range of development through the three markets. USDCHF has seen quite a solid rally while USDJPY has only managed a mini-minor initial push higher from the 111.83 low. Equally, EURUSD should have seen its high but I’d suggest allowing for a minor new high. 

Once we get past the EURUSD/GBPUSD highs we should begin to see a decent reversal lower. Of course, we’re going to need to work through the initial (Dollar) bullish foundation waves before any real solid gains. 

The Aussie should still see a follow-through higher to complete the bullish zigzag. Once that has been seen then we’ll have a quorum in terms of Dollar direction.

On a note in EURJPY, the recent lows have been rather rough in terms of ratios – or lack of good ratios. I’m rather wary about this but frankly, we should be seeing a consolidation – of sorts – with USDJPY expected to push higher and EURUSD lower. I’d still suggest waiting to break out of this rather difficult structure.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 11, 2018

A GOOD CHANCE OF COMPLETING THE DOLLAR LOSSES TODAY

Yes, we have seen some solid Dollar losses but, my, what a long and winding road that was required. I almost thought we’d have to go through a roundabout several times to get to where we are now. As a rough guide, USDJPY appears to be in the final stretch. EURUSD needs a whippy bullish development and USDCHF is about to complete the final Wave a for a pullback and a final low. GBPUSD is pointing higher and has a structure very similar to EURUSD – pretty whippy but once we find that high we’ll begin to look towards the Dollar upside…

AUDUSD is a little complicated. I had been expecting a deeper rally but yesterday saw a drop down to just 2 points above the 0.7042 low. I feel that we actually need a second rally – but take care because it’ll be easy to test the 0.7042 low. It may be best to work with breaks.

As I mentioned yesterday, there was a risk of complications in EURJPY. It appears to have been an expanded flat and therefore should see losses. It may just work with a new high in EURUSD and a declining USDJPY. Once EURUSD and USDJPY complete their follow-through we’re more likely to see a more bearish EURUSD compared to USDJPY…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, October 10, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



BULLISH TARGET MET 3 POINTS BELOW 0.9960

FIREST REVERSAL TARGET MET AT 0.9922 - 40






DOLLAR LOSSES TODAY

Well, it seems the development wasn’t quite so complicated. Basically, we are looking down the last legs of the Dollar losses and perhaps we could even complete the losses. If not - then into tomorrow. In EURUSD, as mentioned yesterday, had the potential for an expanded flat. Yesterday’s low was just a few pips from the normal expansion level. Therefore, we know within ranges, where the cap will be. Equally, we have GBPUSD also pointing higher.

What’s more, USDCHF managed to complete the rally that was ongoing and that needs a pullback – but this will be a relatively shallow pullback due to the depth of the Wave (b)/(iii). At the same time, USDJPY has taken the option of extending a second zigzag. 

If there is one issue, then it’s in GBPUSD that appears to need a comparatively stronger follow-through. Perhaps this may not quite reach its target and if so, we’re likely to complete it tomorrow.

This should provide a firmer rally in AUDUSD to then see a reversal – but perhaps this could have the same issue as in GBPUSD that we may have to wait for tomorrow. 

As for EURUSD, I have a feeling it’s going to messy due to the bullish EURUSD and bearish USDJPY. It may even trigger an initial move above 130.23 before losses resume… However, just take care in case there’s a horrid consolidation.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 9, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1460


THIS COULD BE A ROUGH WEEK

I was just about to close down my PC on Friday when I saw a whip and a crack and then I thought… “Oh, perhaps it’s an NFP day.” Let me have a look. (I tend not to even bother with that monthly game.) Basically, it all blended in with the structures I have – just a slight adjustment with those skinny blips that make life a little harder. The outcome appears to be a rather whippy and rough pullback. 

Of the adjustments I made, EURUSD appears to need a new low and pullback. USDJPY also needed an adjustment that triggered a zigzag lower and from this, it may well form a double zigzag – but don’t expect this to develop today. The Swissie needs a 5-wave rally but will then require a pullback. GBPUSD is the opposite of USDCHF – and correlates with the decline in EURUSD and from there we shall need a firmer rally – but I’m not expecting that to develop today.

The Aussie needs a pullback higher and I tend to feel it’ll be a rough and ready set of swings. As for the “cross”, EURJPY needs a Wave v that must reach a higher degree Wave –c-/-iii- for a pullback.

Best work with short-term profit targets…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 5, 2018

MIXED BAGS BETWEEN THE PAIRS

I have to say that the development has been rather rough and ready, but we’re expecting to see those losses. EURUSD still needs losses and USDCHF still needs gains. However, it appears that GBPUSD should be seeing Dollar losses while USDJPY needs a second rally. Coming into a long weekend, I would suggest taking care – although the focus remains in EURUSD and USDCHF to be Dollar bullish today.

The Aussie should follow EURUSD lower – and still needs a modest follow-through but I suspect by the end of the day they may complete find their lows to then move back into the range. This is will really be convenient for EURUSD and USDCHF to complete their Dollar gains for a reversal. It will then have its turn to see a Dollar bearish correction.  

USDJPY is expected to see a rally and EURUSD a follow-through lower. Thus, I wouldn’t be surprised in EURJPY that it could signal a complex correction.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 4, 2018

THE MARKET SEEMS TO LIKE THE DOLLAR

Yesterday provided the goods with a pretty decent rally in the Dollar. It will still need further gains but the early risk is for a pullback lower. This will be the tricky bit. USDJPY may have the potential for direct gains. I’d suggest waiting for a move above 114.60 first – just in case I have made an error due to the very difficult lower degree development. 

Equally, EURUSD also seems to suggest losses but most likely a slower development over the Asian session - perhaps even a consolidation before the losses. 

USDCHF does look like seeing a pullback lower – and would suggest quite a deep one – before further gains can be seen. The same can be said of GBPUSD for a pullback before any losses. This should see EURJPY moving lower once more. How this all balances out seems to require a range of corrections/consolidation spanning Asia and Europe before the Dollar finally manages to push back higher once again. 

As for the Antipodean, it seems to have limited pullbacks and firmer losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, October 3, 2018

STUFF THE DOLLAR LOSSES …

I was shocked by the minor Wave (ii)’s or Wave b/iii’s in several pairs. Well, 27% is kinda ok but (if I have the right Wave (ii) in USDCHF it was just 7.4%.) Having said that, particularly in GBPUSD, the massive cycle from the 1930’s, we should begin to see some acceleration lower. Even so, I was quite shocked with the USDCHF percentage. This should retain an underlying Dollar bullish outlook but that doesn’t rule out fairly deep pullbacks during the process. 

As far as I can see today, we should continue on the Dollar bullish path – with the exception of USDJPY. So far we appear to have seen a double zigzag and we need to complete the final 3-legged that should then trigger a reversal higher.

That EURUSD saw the unexpected losses and USDJPY really not trying to push too much on the downside, EURJPY had a strong bearish day. Over the next few months, we should see some decent losses. 

Even the Aussie took the leap of faith on the downside and has seen some decent losses – and there should be more to go. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 1, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECASTS FOR EURUSD AND USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 1.1570


TARGET MET AT 1.3001








BACK TO A MIXED BAG

I initially wanted to write that we “should see Dollar losses.” That’s partly right but there are some – well, two pairs that suggest they still need further Dollar gains. Yes, we could see an early Dollar pullback lower in the Dollar but it’s pretty limited. Therefore, we’re going to have to work through the pairs piecemeal. 

Basically, EURUSD and GBPUSD should see a Dollar pullback. USDJPY will initially make a new high but then suffer quite a deep pullback. USDCHF may see a minor blip higher – or it had found its high and will move back lower…

Strangely, it seems that the Aussie wants to push higher over the day – although there’s a risk of an early pullback. 

Finally, in EURJPY we have barely any room on the upside – but could be seen in the early stages, but once USDJPY suffers its pullback we should see a rather ratcheting, probably messy development with EURUSD expected to push higher while USDJPY does the opposite. It looks like a rather messy outlook in the cross…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey