Monday, August 27, 2018

PLEASE NOTE THAT I SHALL BE TAKING A BREAK THRU THE 5TH SEPTEMBER

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ON THE 6TH SEPTEMBER.

WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEK

Hmmm, Friday was rather a weird old day – nothing like I had expected. Even EURUSD made a new high but I’m pretty certain that it was the final high. Therefore, over the coming week – to the 5thSeptember I’ll be out of touch and I’ll begin from the 6thAugust. I shall be looking at the charts just to keep track of how things develop otherwise I couldn’t do 7 days of analysis in one day…

What I have done is provide a broad outlook for the 6 pairs. Thankfully, it shouldn’t be a weird and wonderful development. Only the corrections will need some care on the way through. However, once we begin on the bullish road again we’re going to see some jolly spanking Dollar gains so we should see a stronger move towards the daily/weekly targets that I have in mind. No, I don’t think one week will achieve that but what I have done is provide a template as to how the Dollar bullish development should develop. 

I’ll be leaving Tokyo at 30 degrees and landing in London at 20 degrees – and down to 10 degrees overnight. Sounds bad but the humidity we have been having is making me mouldy! 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, August 24, 2018

FOLLOW-THROUGH AND PULLBACK

Having seen the highs that formed the Wave (ii)’s in EURUSD and GBPUSD, we are still looking for further losses. Not all is quite correlated so I’m not expecting the 4 majors to develop in synchronicity. Most likely, the early stages appear to be moving together well. It’s just EURUSD that appears to need a stronger decline. Indeed, with very limited upside in EURJPY the risk is for EURUSD to generate deeper decline. GBPUSD, in comparison, will see losses but I feel they won’t be as strong as EURUSD. In fact, EURGBP is due quite some decent losses. So much for the expectation within the silly, childish spat between UK and the EU…

USDJPY needs a pullback and a final rally. USDCHF needs a little more work to complete a Wave v to complete a (green) Wave [c]/[i]. This will need a firm follow-through although in this pair, it always makes a mountain out of a molehill.

Lastly, the upside down currency may well be the strongest of all the pairs that should see quite a decent follow-through…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, August 23, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 128.27





OH! WE HAVE A SURPRISE IN STORE…

That wasn’t meant to happen yesterday… Additional Dollar losses. I was always looking for GBPUSD to be corrective – but I had thought that in EURUSD we were seeing an impulsive move but the follow-through higher did not provide alternation all the way through from the 1.1301 low… There’s still some risk of initial Dollar losses but once this finds a high the outcome looks pretty much as I expected. We’re certainly seeing hourly Dollar bullish divergences.

There can still be a final leg(s) to see Dollar losses but by the end of today I suspect we’ll be grappling with the Dollar bullish foundation waves…

This makes sense in terms of AUDUSD still making additional highs although there’s very little wriggle room on the upside. Therefore, we’re still getting a Dollar bullish outcome.

Overall, once EURUSD has topped out we should see EURJPY reversing back to the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, August 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7382




DOLLAR GAINS

Phew, I thought we’d have a relatively limited Dollar downside yesterday. Well, it darn well went slowly and with a lower Dollar that took it towards the end of the day. It was only USDJPY that took the initiative to see Dollar gains – although limited to the first reversal target. So… guess what?! Now we shall see all Dollar pairs looking for a stronger Dollar. Most likely, in the early stages, we shall need the (Dollar) bullish form the foundation waves and that tends to suggest a move through the Asian session and into the European. No doubt that this will the allow the U.S. to carry it through.

There’s only one pair that I have some issues – that’s in GBPUSD. I think I’ve found a solution but it may be prudent to allow for a new high before losses.

Even AUDUSD has found a high and instead of just a correction there is the potential for new lows below 0.7202. Whether it breaks below that low or just a limited decline and a pullback for losses to resume below 0.7202.

With EURUSD looking bearish and USDJPY rather diffident on the upside we’re likely to see losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Tuesday, August 21, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



We have seen the 1.1541 this morning




TIME FOR A REVERSAL

Yesterday saw a jolly decent decline in the Dollar. For the most part, I think we have seen the low – although it will be worth allowing for a minor new low for some of the pairs. Certainly, I feel that EURUSD needs a new high before the reversal – maybe GBPUSD and also USDCHF.

So, very clearly, the next leg will be a bullish development. I fear that we’re going to see some ragged moves in this bullish move that could create some complex corrections. So take this easy and take profits early.

Even AUDUSD appears to have topped out. It has seen a double zigzag but within an impulsive development from the 0.7465 high. It could see a triple three but with a decent hourly bearish divergence the alternative is deeper losses. This could provide a surprise perhaps…

With EURUSD expecting a cap soon and USDJPY already finding its low, it’s rather difficult to judge the balance between these two pairs. The upside is most definitely limited but much depends on how EURUSD develops. We’ve seen a long sideways move so we have the options of a new high – but holding below 126.99 – and further limited losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, August 20, 2018

DOWN A BIT, UP A BIT

Having seen the high in the Dollar, the losses have been limited to un-extraordinary – but that’s not an issue. We shall still see losses over time but this current development appears ultra-slow. Indeed, as the week begins we should see a new Dollar low but then a pullback. I can only hope that once the pullback has been seen, perhaps the Dollar can concede losses a little more robustly. Just looking back on the past few days when EURUSD and GBPUSD provided a low, GBPUSD has seen a modestly firm recovery while GBPUSD appears rather slothful – and we still have quite a way to go.

Within the two pairs of Majors (EURUSD & GBPUSD versus USDJPY & USDCHF) we’re pretty much half way through the Dollar (bearish) pullback. I remain looking for USDJPY and USDCHF to provide the limit of the Dollar pullback. Indeed, I’m expecting USDJPY to see a new low for a pullback although USDCHF has rather a more complicated potential – but as far as I can see the Dollar upside is limited.

EURJPY has remained lethargic since EURUSD and GBPUSD found their lows and with the general correlation between the pairs I’m still considering the possibility of a triangle – or complex correction.

And finally, AUDUSD broke the upside limit that implies that the 0.7202 was the (brown) Wave -a-/-iii-. This should see some initial swings – overall higher – before we’ll see a reversal.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey