Tuesday, July 31, 2018

AFTER THE REVERSAL – A REVERSAL…

Yesterday saw the Dollar lose out as expected – although it took most of the day to complete the pullback. This allowed USDCHF to break below 0.9901 to then complete a triple three and in EURUSD the deep pullback I expected. In GBPUSD I was in two minds – or really two alternatives – that actually saw a deeper pullback that then confirmed the 1.3083 low was the Wave -i- and the pullback to 1.3153 to form the Wave -ii-. The only pair I floundered on was USDJPY. On Thursday I had considered the potential for a triple three rally. I was in two minds about whether the rally was 5-wave or 3-wave – but took the wrong decision.

The outcome of the 4-majors now brings us to the Dollar upside once more…

USDJPY has completed the foundation waves already – as has GBPUSD. It’s just now that EURUSD and USDCHF – having seen stronger losses - that now need to form their foundation waves for the Wave [i] and Wave [ii] before stronger Dollar gains.

The Aussie appears to have remained below the 0.7416 and thus should see losses along with the pack. As for EURJPY, the strength of yesterday’s rally in EURUSD provided a deep pullback – so now we should see the downside resume once more.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






 YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY


TARGET MET AT 130.07





Monday, July 30, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 129.12




FOLLOW-THROUGH AND REVERSAL

Friday saw a very slow start, slower than I had anticipated, but finally managed to revert back to the Dollar downside as I had expected. The start of the day seems to me – for the most part – a direct follow-through to see Dollar losses. Ideally, EURUSD should provide a stronger move than USDJPY and USDCHF. That said, we may just see a soporific start to the week by the end of the week we should be turning back to the Dollar upside.

GBPUSD has seen a rather complicated decline and I’m mixed between having seen a Wave i or a move to the Wave b/iii - but that will need a robust Wave c/iii. At this point, it’ll be probably best to remain neutral and note the next break.

EURJPY has reached the Wave a/v and that suggests a deeper pullback in EURUSD versus USDJPY that only needs a minor follow-through lower. This tends to suggest a rather slothful USDJPY that should later reverse back higher.

As for down under, it looks to me as if we’ll see a pullback lower and then a second rally.  

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, July 27, 2018

EARLY PULLBACK AND REVERSAL

It was a decent day’s work yesterday. We’ve seen EURUSD and GBPUSD top out for losses. USDJPY may have seen a low but there’s still potential for an expanded flat to extend losses. So this pair remains rather vague at the moment. Equally, while USDCHF actually made some decent gains, we’ve not yet confirmed a second 5-wave rally. Therefore, there is a mild risk of a break below 0.9901. If we do see the break above 0.9955 it will tend to suggest a Wave i and for a pullback in Wave ii.

Thus, the two safer majors – EURUSD and GBPUSD – are probably the best pairs to trade. Well, perhaps I can add AUDUSD also to EUR and GBP to safer outlooks. These three seem to require a minor follow-through and a reversal.

EURJPY? Pretty much the same as EURUSD and GBPUSD – minor follow-through and a deeper pullback… Whether we get to complete the corrections today or not is the question… I’d like to think that we could see a reversal after the pullback… but in this sultry weather I’m not totally convinced…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, July 26, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR GBPUSD AND AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3214



TARGET MET AT 0.7465








AFTER A SLOW DAY – NOW IT’S TIME FOR THE DOLLAR FOLLOW-THROUGH

Was it the heat across the northern hemisphere that made yesterday’s development grind so slowly and painfully? It took the full 24 hours to finally approach the final high in EURUSD and also AUDUSD that completed its expanded flat. We may have even reached the high in GBPUSD after a prolonged sideways consolidation – but I suspect we should see just one more blip higher. And what of USDCHF? Blah… Down a bit, up a bit – and back down a bit. Could we have seen a final zigzag in USDJPY? I’m not too confident of this pair and it needs to start making stronger Dollar gains… I tend to feel that we’ve probably seen the final low.

So, for the majority of the pairs we should begin to see Dollar gains – although do still need to take care in USDJPY because there is a minor risk of a final zigzag to complete a triple three. These are the rather annoying uncertainties that make life difficult.

As for the cross, EURJPY has formed the Wave c/iii and Wave iv. There’s also the potential for the Wave iv to develop as a complex correction but if I am to choose, I go for a triangle. With EURUSD expected to see losses and an uncertain USDJPY, it does, at least, suggest the potential for the complex correction…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Wednesday, July 25, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR EURUSD AND USDCHF




TARGET MET AT 1.1752



TARGET MET AT 0.9955

NEUTRAL START AND LATER DOLLAR FOLLOW-THROUGH

Well, we did see Dollar gains but it was hardly rampant. It actually looks as if we may see the same sort of start once again. Perhaps the soaring temperature across the planet has taken a toll on any enthusiasm. However, even if we have a slow start in Asia we should still see a later move higher. With GBPUSD having pushed above the 1.3159 – even by just one point – implies a follow-through but it shouldn’t be rampant. Us Brits can’t cope with high temperatures and it’ll soon reverse over the day. Perhaps that will be the trigger for all the majors to move back to the Dollar upside.

Even then, when we have seen the follow-through to completion, it will actually require a pullback in a Wave ii. The only issue is how strong the Wave c/i develops and the depth of the pullback.

EURUSD is a slightly more advanced having formed a Wave i. We may have seen the Wave ii but there is a risk of a deeper pullback before the Dollar upside resumes. However, we’re going to need some care because EURJPY appears to be egging to see losses. The balance between the two intrinsic pairs will need some observance.

Finally, the upside down currency was puzzling me after suggesting an expanded flat. The deeper pullback and now rally has a potential to form that expanded flat. Thus, with GBPUSD expecting a new high along with AUDUSD, this may well provide the trigger for uniform Dollar gains.

Good trading
Ian Copsey