Monday, July 16, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3102




LIMITED DOLLAR PULLBACK THEN BACK TO THE UPSIDE

Steady as she blows… Clearly, the North Americans saw that the Europeans really didn’t want to extend the Dollar upside and basically they decided to squeeze the market. However, this pullback is now pretty close to a reversal for the Asian session to drift as if in a cloud. We still need some minor Dollar losses in the early stages but it won’t take too long before the Dollar to re-track its losses and revert back to the Dollar upside.

I suspect USDJPY will be rather lackadaisical today although the counter-argument is that EURJPY needs further gains. We have seen the rising channel low hold but can it make a new high? The balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is rather fragile at this stage but – at some point – we shall need a new high. We may even see the rising channel break for a pullback and then a higher target. This suggests that we should wait and watch whether it breaks above the current high – or below the rising channel. 

Otherwise, the main pairs are pretty much balanced and in broad correlation.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, July 13, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



FIRST TARGET MET AT 112.37

SECOND TARGET MET THIS MORNING AT 112.82


ANOTHER DAY - FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

We have seen some steady gains in the Dollar. There will be pullbacks – but we have some way to go in this particular leg and I suspect it will last through towards the end of next week – unless we get tied up in a sideways consolidation…

Today broadly suggests some decent Dollar gains. However, initially we shall need some minor swings to provide the foundation waves for the next higher degree rally. However, USDJPY may well be a rather stick-in-the-mud as it will need a modest pullback – and that could provide a pullback in EURJPY. The balance between these two is rather critical because once the cross tops out – and that should be pretty early on in the day. The cross still needs one more rally after the pullback and that’s the puzzle we need to solve. 

USDCHF needs a rally and then a deeper pullback. GBPUSD now appears to have suddenly realised that it has to move lower also – barring the pullbacks that will likely develop towards the end of the Asian session. 

That leaves the Aussie but this pair has options. It could see further pullbacks higher – or just direct losses. This makes life rather difficult to judge so take care.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, July 12, 2018

PULLBACK AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

Steady as she blows… We’re making steady gains in the Dollar but there’s more to come. The North American session ended and for the most part, we should see a pullback but that doesn’t appear to be consistent. Some pairs need a minor follow-through and others just a pullback. That should see the “follow-through” pairs make a new Dollar high and from there we should see all of the pairs seeing corrective Dollar losses. The pullbacks don’t appear to be massively deep so watch across the range of currency pairs and hopefully we’ll manage to see the Dollar arise once more. 

Therefore, by the European session, we should begin to see the Dollar rise once more but there could be some tricky little bits that could provide some frustrations. However, I’ve noted that the main $/currency pairs are now all above the (Dollar bullish) side of the Price Equilibrium Clouds. That is an encouraging indication in itself.

The only pig in the poke is EURJPY. I had thought we had found the high but yesterday saw yet another new high and I tend to feel that it may well need a minor new high. However, the signs from the hourly & 4-hour momentum indications suggest a reversal to the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, July 11, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1670



FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

We’re beginning to get some Dollar bullish traction developing. EURUSD has completed its Wave i and, most likely, a Wave ii. There is still some upside to provide a triple three. However, from the other pairs we have USDCHF almost at an extreme pullback and USDJPY that has seen a sudden collapse at the end of the North American session. This tends to suggest that we’re more likely to see direct Dollar gains…

This should see a solid follow-through on the Dollar upside. As this rally progresses, we should eventually reach a point where we have a deeper pullback. This is not going to happen today but I just want to make sure that we don’t get too aggressive. Indeed, the range of pairs has different structures but this should provide a guideline as we move towards the Dollar upside overall. 

At last, EURJPY has finally topped out and along with AUDUSD we should see losses overall.

Thus, focus on bearish reversal indications on any pullback…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, July 9, 2018

FRUSTRATED BUT I REMAIN DOLLAR BULLISH

Friday’s break above 1.1721 in EURUSD was not what I wanted but there was always the potential for a follow-through. I just couldn’t quite get the correct. The key issue now is that even GBPUSD broke higher and that mean an expanded flat. Indeed, it has broken above the 1.3315 high and should now make one more minor high before a reversal. We’re also very close to a high in EURUSD – in fact we may have seen the high on Friday, particularly with a solid bearish divergence. The odd one out appears to be USDCHF that appears to need a new low for a reversal higher – but this pair can generate mini-minor pullbacks in Wave iv and a minor blip to complete a low. As long as you place a stop by a decent margin, we should then find a quorum for the Dollar to (FINALLY) get itself back on the bullish road. For the final 4thmajor, USDJPY – well, given that the other pairs are just about to – or have seen their Dollar lows – ideally we should see it hold above 110.28… 

That just leaves AUDUSD to make a new high and then a reversal following its own expanded flat.

As for the cross, EURJPY has barely any room on the upside so it will need EURUSD to reverse more firmly relative to USDJPY. However, given the tight levels that need to hold, it’ll be prudent to make sure that key levels do not break on the downside…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, July 6, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9946



NOW THE DOLLAR SHOULD RALLY

Well, we did see a move towards the 1.1721 high in EURUSD… in fact, just 0.00005 below 1.1721 and that confirmed a triple three. GBPUSD also saw a minor new high but still in the area where a triangle top could develop. That left USDCHF looking pretty dizzy and makes the chart look like a toddlers’ scribble while USDJPY steadily saw ratcheting gains. So it was a rather dull and slow day but has, at least, found us now looking for the Dollar to start doing its magic. Having said that, there’s still room for lower degree noise to develop over the Asian session.

So, I’m expecting a slow start but later more constructive development that should provide the foundations for a stronger Dollar rally.

AUDUSD has been rather lackadaisical but as mentioned yesterday the risk of a new high in an expanded flat appears to have dissipated and therefore both GBPUSD and AUDUSD have the same structure. We should see losses in both GBB and AUD…

With EURUSD making gains yesterday along with USDJPY, we have seen a new high in EURJPY. It has potential to break above yesterday’s high – but it’s a tight balance. Much depends on the balance between the two intrinsic pairs. However, it looks like we are seeing a triple top…

Have an enjoyable weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, July 5, 2018

I REMAIN CAUTIOUS – BUT PREFER THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Recent days have seen some broad swings that have been rather complicated. I took some time over the early hours to try and resolve the structures. What I feel I have found is that EURUSD doesn’t seem to have the oomph to break above 1.1721. However, it could still see a new high – but not above 1.1721. Equally, GBPUSD appears now to possibly be an irregular triangle. What must not happen is a break below 0.9892 in USDCHF and USDJPY below 110.28 – but with a limit at 109.78… 

The boundaries I’ve explained should help provide limits for stop losses – or more positively, further Dollar gains.

I’ve noted that AUDUSD has managed to reach the 0.7425 level but in terms of an expanded flat, the target remains the same. The alternative risk could be a descending triangle – rather similar to GBPUSD…

As for the cross – EURJPY – we seem to have completed a double zigzag. This has the potential for a final zigzag to form a triple three – or a break below 128.41. Even then, the final break level is at 127.14… Therefore, this pair needs some due care and attention…

Take it cautiously in the early stages but hopefully, the European and North American sessions should sort things out.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, July 2, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3216


DOLLAR STILL SEEMS TO NEED LOSSES

Basically, everything appears to be in order despite the broad swings we have been seeing. One development from Friday was the break above the 110.67 level that broke the downside – although the 110.85 high did not conform to the ratio structure. However, having seen the break higher I have to concede to an “outlier”. We seem to have a limited downside but having seen a Wave a/iii there is the risk of a complex correction. 

Otherwise, EURUSD and USDCHF should maintain the Dollar bearish outlook but we’re closer to a final reversal that should provide a firmer directional wave. This is going to need some patience to allow the development to … errr… develop.

In GBPUSD, I looked back in my charts and noted that on the 21stJune we registered a 3-wave rally. We therefore have the duality of a potential limited pullback or an expanded flat. Thus take note of the break level that will provide the expansion.

The Aussie has to complete its expanded flat. 

EURJPY should see EURUSD provide the main boost for the rally. However, whether EURUSD can take on the burden for the rally by itself is a bit of a stretch. Don’t rule out the possibility of USDJPY providing support also…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey