Friday, June 8, 2018

A CAUTIOUS START

When EURUSD broke higher, ignoring my expectation, it created a massive problem. From 01:15 when I arose from my slumber, I have been trying to resolve the structures – both lower degree and daily. I came up with two options although I’ve still to ratify the structures. Of course, I have the other pairs that also provide information. For EURUSD, I have a daily chart that needs confirmation but appears to be in line with the other pairs – while the hourly decline from 1.2413 to 1.1510 is yet not clarified at all (despite lots of attempts.)

However, feel that even if we have seen a new low in USDCHF, I feel that I’ve resolved the issue and thus yesterday’s low should be the final low. At the same time, in GBPUSD, I hadn’t expected a break above 1.3444 to reach 1.3472, that was a possible target a couple of days ago. I have also found an alternative for USDJPY. It does have some minor risk of a deeper pullback but with USDCHF having been ratified I suspect we’ll see direct gains. 

So… overall, while rather cautious, I feel we’re going to see the Dollar gains I expected a few days ago… 

That EURJPY has seen the Wave b/iii at the 84% retracement, while there is a little more room that could be used, the solid hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences are really suggesting losses. Well, it’s not USDJPY that’s going to fuel that – so it’s down to a bearish EURUSD. 

As for AUDUSD, I’d really like to suggest that we have seen the final high but I’m not particularly confident. However, a break below 0.7594 will signal losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






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