Friday, June 29, 2018

THE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES

My goodness, this market loves a ride and I don’t think it’s over. The key market for me is USDJPY. Towards the end of yesterday it approached the break level by one point. As long as that extends losses we should do well. I was a touch concerned over the decline in EURUSD but it didn’t reach the 1.1509 low. This tends to suggest that it’s going straight back higher. Equally, after an adjustment, USDCHF rushed higher to a new high to create a bearish divergence. An expanded flat I suspect…

All of these three pairs have that potential. Ah, you may say, “what about GBPUSD? It broke to a new low. However, that formed a Wave i and Wave ii and followed by a Wave a. This should see a deep-ish pullback but not a new high.

That leaves AUDUSD looking downward to the limit of an expansion – or just a rally back above 0.7445.

That just leaves EURJPY seeing minor swings and consolidations as EUR battles against JPY… Doesn’t look like a day to trade the cross…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 28, 2018

FOR ALL YOU SWINGERS

Oh my goodness… The Dollar gains were just not on the map for me yesterday. The key pair for me is USDJPY. The development from the 108.11 low did not see a valid Wave iii at 110.85. Even if I tried to suggest an expanded flat it still doesn’t work. Basically, it was 6 points short. Will this be an anomaly? Certainly, the Wave b/iii I have was an 80.1% retracement. 

In the meantime, I took a look again at USDCHF and found an option that saw a 5-wave decline from 0.9986. If I’ve got this right, then we should see a 5-wave decline. For the decline in EURUSD we saw a 3-wave decline. It could just be a Wave i and therefore we could see a Wave ii. However, it may have just been a simple zigzag. Coming to GBPUSD, the decline was clearly corrective. 

This tends to suggest that we’re going back to new highs. 

Even AUDUSD broke below the 0.7345 low but having seen a 3-wave rally to 0.7445 we will have to see whether it will form an expanded flat.

As for the cross, EURJPY seems to be heading for a Wave c/i and therefore will need a pullback higher.

I’ll add the break levels in each pair in the report.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, June 27, 2018

WE STILL NEED A BEARISH DOLLAR

I had high hopes of finding the final low in the Dollar. Instead, in USDJPY in particular, we saw an expanded flat and in EURUSD an extremely deep Wave b/iii that stalled 0.00002 from the break level. This allowed GBPUSD to sink into a bubble bath ready to see the next rally. 

So, as long as that EURUSD low doesn’t break down, we should be heading lower in the Dollar today. Maybe we’ll complete the move – but it may drag on into tomorrow morning. This should allow USDCHF to make another 5-wave move lower to complete the triple three while the Aussie needs a 3-wave rally. Of course, the Aussie can be a rather tricky pair. It tends to enjoy generating expanded flats just for the fun of it. However, once we’ve sorted out the next zigzag, we should begin to look back to the downside.

As for the EURJPY cross, I’d still recommend a rather neutral outlook. We have a bullish EURUSD and bearish USDJPY. It doesn’t really provide any confidence of an impulsive move today… Best remain neutral.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, June 25, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET REACHED 1.1666 - AND THEN THE NEXT HIGHER RESISTANCE AT 1.1677


A CAUTIOUS START TO THE WEEK

I really want to just say that we’ll see Dollar gains right from the off. Actually, I am pretty certain that it will. However, there’s one basic problem and that’s USDCHF. I knew that this pair had formed a double zigzag and then we saw a new low – but that’s just a Wave a. Therefore, we’re going to need Dollar gains from the start. The key here is that Friday saw the completion of the expanded flat in EURUSD and thus provided a Wave -a- and Wave -b-. Thus, we should – from the start – see a second 5-wave decline. In this process USDCHF will need a pullback only. Once EURUSD has formed the Wave -c-/-i- we shall need a pullback in Wave -ii-. Once that is done – and USDCHF completes the triple three we’ll begin to see a strong push to the Dollar upside.

This may, or may not see a new high in GBPUSD but basically the overall outcome is the resumption of the downside. USDJPY should also start the week with a rally and likely form the foundation waves for the next rally. It’s really quite interesting that, while the different pairs are in their various structures, they normally (but not always) come to a point where they move in tandem. 

The Aussie still seems to need further gains but this pair can go solo for a while to form a Wave [b]. Then, the cross in EURJPY appears to have the same template as EURUSD but could take the long route to see it develop.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FIR USDJPY



110.50 AND 110.65 BOTH SEEN PRECISELY - THE HIGH AT 110.77



THE EARLY STAGES NEED CARE

Well, that wasn’t what I had expected… The early stages were pretty ok although I had expected deeper gains in the Dollar. I had my evening meal and just before laying my head on the pillow I saw these dirty great Dollar losses. The outcome is rather tense. I’d like to think that EURUSD has topped out but there is the risk of a push above 1.1646 for a reversal. 

This also screwed up GBPUSD. The adjustment I made looks kinda ok but I do have reservations. I certainly wouldn’t want a break above yesterday’s high… The Wave iv I have used was a 56% retracement so it doesn’t really have much room before a deep pullback.

This allowed a deeper pullback in USDCHF and USDJPY – but I caught the latter and knew we’d have to see a deep pullback. However, it’s rather close to the break level that would extend losses even further. This takes us to EURUSD. We shall either see an expanded flat; or… we’ve seen an expanded flat for direct losses… 

Meanwhile, the Aussie made a new low by 2 points. It was enough – and with hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences. How deep any pullback will be is totally unknown but I can’t really see losses at this stage…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 21, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7409


A MORE DIRECTIONAL DAY TODAY

Yesterday did see some directional development but there were a few pairs that really decided to have a nap. USDJPY was quite forthright in pushing higher. However, today should see the Dollar make some decent gains. Therefore, we should see AUDUSD make losses – but not off the bat. It does need a pullback before deeper losses. Equally, EURUSD began to lose its way with a sharp decline and then a deeper pullback – and that should now see those losses. USDCHF played the same game of up-a-bit, down-a-bit and snooze. However, it does now have the right outlook for a bullish move – perhaps even towards the 1.0056 high. 

GBPUSD completed a Wave a and then a pullback in Wave b. That sets the scene for deeper losses – and about time too. With EURUSD now embarking on the downside we should see EURJPY edging lower again. I suspect EURUSD will have a stronger move compared to USDJPY but there could be some consolidation on the way.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, June 20, 2018

WELL, THAT WAS A SURPRISE…

The Dollar actually managed to break above the recent highs… I looked at the Dollar Index and basically it has not yet satisfied alternation – and that’s actually quite a deep pullback. Now that we have seen further Dollar gains I suspect we’re going to see a shallower follow through and reversal. In EURUSD I suspect a stubbier Wave (c)/(i) and also USDCHF. Once they have formed these targets it will imply a deep Wave (ii). However, I can’t see this happening in GBPUSD. It now needs to complete the current decline – and that’s suggests deeper losses. Perhaps we shall see a consolidation at some point to let the others look for a pullback lower in the Dollar. 

I’m cautious in USDJPY – a potential expanded flat – but frankly, in the 5-min market, it doesn’t really have too much say to be honest so I’m still rather cautious in this pair. EURJPY is finely balanced and has choices on both sides of the current price. I’d suggest caution here today.

Finally, the Aussie needs to see a deeper pullback from the 0.7347 low before a new low.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 18, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1543




PULLBACK TO CONTINUE

Friday’s sharp move higher in the Dollar finally came to a halt to then develop a correction. I’m expecting to see a deeper pullback. However, there’s a limit. Forgetting USDJPY for the moment, EURUSD and USDCHF saw the Dollar rally in a 5-wave move. In GBPUSD, the decline was also a 5-wave move but compared to the other two Europeans, GBPUSD had completed a Wave a/iii. While we can’t say that these three will see their corrections develop in the same proportion, it does suggest that we’re not going to see an extreme pullback. 

Coming back to USDJPY, we’re going to have to watch the move. There’s room on the downside and even the potential for further gains. However, if I have my own way then I’d guess that we’ll see a correction lower before the next push higher develops. 

In EURJPY, I could see the potential for the EURUSD/USDCHF vs GBPUSD to form a corrective development. So far we have seen a completed zigzag followed by a Wave -x-, a Wave -a- and this morning’s dip in a Wave -b-. Therefore we’ll be due a Wave -c- but we haven’t enough information to generate any targets. However, once that has been seen, it will be interesting to note the final zigzag in a triple three. This would tend to suggest that it may find a rough cap for Dollar gains to resume.

The Aussie? Swings – bearish ones… but relatively limited.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 15, 2018

PULLBACKS

The expected losses in the Dollar mainly developed well. That EURUSD actually made a new high was a bit of a surprise although in GBPUSD managed to reach the 1.3447 level – and that’s when all hell let loose. Attempting to judge that decline was not an easy matter although – as far as I have seen, we’ve found some Dollar highs. That the decline developed in a 5-wave move, it tends to suggest a modest pullback higher at the very least. It could even be higher.

USDJPY dithered, probably giddy with EURUSD and GBPUSD development and basically the Japanese currency merely attempted to do very little. This tends to suggest a new low today while EURUSD and GBPUSD see their pullbacks. The weirdest structure was USDCHF, pushing to a new high, then a new low, basically developing an expanding triangle. Once that was complete the Swissie managed to put flame to the to upside. It may just make a minor new high before a reversal. 

The Aussie should now see losses towards the Wave iii.

After a rather trying development in EURJPY – that did make a minor new high – EURUSD jumped on a piggyback for sharp losses to form a Wave (a). Hey, guess what? We’ll need a pullback first before any further losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, June 13, 2018

AND THE MARKET CHOSE TO BREAK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

I can’t say it was a marvellous day. However, I wasn’t really expecting a grand rush. Yesterday I mentioned the Price Equilibrium Clouds and looking for a break to the Dollar upside. USDJPY, EURUSD and AUDUSD broke through the Clouds to push higher in the Dollar. USDCHF was rather reticent and basically provided a sideways move but still without breaking below the 4-hour Cloud low. Equally, GBPUSD decided to follow the Swissie’s sideways move. AUDUSD is struggling a bit but should see that it’s lagging and I’m pretty certain that it’ll break below both hourly & 4-hour Clouds. 

Basically, the outcome should be Dollar bullish again today but will have some initial swings – not really a surprise in the Asian centre. By the European session the Dollar upside risk will grow and push into the North American session. 

If possible, just ride the Asian session and look for decent signs of any pullback to buy into. I suspect by the end of the day that we’ll be looking a little more bullish…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 11, 2018

FRIDAY'S (ALTERNATIVE) FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1727


BEST STILL TAKE CARE


I spent quite some time over the weekend resolving EURUSD in particular. I created what I had thought was a great solution. However, when writing the beginning of the report I realised that there was still an error. However, when I look at the range of pairs I still get the perception that they are looking to still push higher in the Dollar. 

Even if I have made a mistake, frankly the relatively shallow pullback could be considered enough because we do still need deeper losses overtime. Therefore, I’m still (more cautiously) looking for Dollar gains but this does make GBPUSD rather uncertain - but still bearish. 

There is room for a pullback but it’s not going to be too deep. Therefore, it’s a rather difficult outcome to judge at this point. 

As for the Aussie, we saw quite a decent decline on Friday to form a Wave [i] but how deep will the Wave [ii] be? That’s just another puzzle to work out…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, June 8, 2018

A CAUTIOUS START

When EURUSD broke higher, ignoring my expectation, it created a massive problem. From 01:15 when I arose from my slumber, I have been trying to resolve the structures – both lower degree and daily. I came up with two options although I’ve still to ratify the structures. Of course, I have the other pairs that also provide information. For EURUSD, I have a daily chart that needs confirmation but appears to be in line with the other pairs – while the hourly decline from 1.2413 to 1.1510 is yet not clarified at all (despite lots of attempts.)

However, feel that even if we have seen a new low in USDCHF, I feel that I’ve resolved the issue and thus yesterday’s low should be the final low. At the same time, in GBPUSD, I hadn’t expected a break above 1.3444 to reach 1.3472, that was a possible target a couple of days ago. I have also found an alternative for USDJPY. It does have some minor risk of a deeper pullback but with USDCHF having been ratified I suspect we’ll see direct gains. 

So… overall, while rather cautious, I feel we’re going to see the Dollar gains I expected a few days ago… 

That EURJPY has seen the Wave b/iii at the 84% retracement, while there is a little more room that could be used, the solid hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences are really suggesting losses. Well, it’s not USDJPY that’s going to fuel that – so it’s down to a bearish EURUSD. 

As for AUDUSD, I’d really like to suggest that we have seen the final high but I’m not particularly confident. However, a break below 0.7594 will signal losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 7, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3444



A MISCHEVIOUS GREMLIN

USDJPY and USDCHF did their best to provide the Dollar gains. While USDJPY managed to make slow but steady gains, USDCHF decided to continue to ride in a roller coaster but managed to remain above the 0.9826 low. 

Then came the Gremlin… EURUSD broke above 1.1762. So that provided me with a Sudoku problem but which has been resolved. Indeed, it has actually provided the solution for the stronger outlook – but on the downside. At the same time, GBPUSD reached the target areas I had been looking for.

Now we can swat the Gremlin… 

The Aussie appears to need just a little more on the upside before resuming the downtrend. Equally, with EURUSD pushing higher – along with USDJPY – we have moved to a rather deep pullback. 

This is the time for Dollar gains once more – but equally across all Dollar pairs…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, June 6, 2018

STILL LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

Yesterday provided the gains in the Dollar – but then a deep correction. That was annoying but clearly within the individual structures we’ve only just started the next leg higher. The only disappointing issue as that GBPUSD decided that it really wanted to make another high. However, we’re within spitting distance of the high and that will then trigger the downside to confirm Dollar gains.

As the day begins, we should see USDJPY correcting lower. I suspect it won’t be too deep because USDCHF has barely any room on the downside. EURUSD is pretty much in the same situation – just 12 pips below the Wave (iv) high. 

Overall, it suggests the normal Asian session that tends to prefer limited ranges and that actually suits the balance to allow GBPUSD to make a final high for all 4 majors to point to the Dollar upside.

Another annoyance is that EURJPY has just pushed above the prior high at 128.71 to reach 128.76. However, I suspect – and have just confirmed that instead of a triple three, we have seen a single zigzag higher… Therefore, we should soon see losses.

As for the Aussie, it seems it needs a little deeper pullback before losses resume…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, June 5, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9829



DOLLAR DOWNSIDE DONE AND DUSTED

Yesterday completed the pullbacks in GBPUSD and EURUSD. Long live the Dollar – well, for some more months… Basically, we should now be looking for the Dollar upside to develop. Already, USDJPY and USDCHF have already completed the early stages of the next rally. This should see GBPUSD forming a Wave i later in the day while EURUSD needs to complete a 3-wave decline in a Wave v. This tends to suggest that we’ll likely see some range trading/correction so the risk of strong moves is rather unlikely. However, at this point, we should see the Dollar looking for gains but with swings.

Therefore, overall, we are looking at a Dollar bullish outlook through the 4-majors over today and probably tomorrow. 

I feel we have seen the top of EURJPY although we’ll have to manage possible sideways moves at times but overall we should see losses. Having said that, as I noted above, EURUSD doesn’t look like a developing in a strong decline while USDJPY really needs to get going on the upside. This tends to suggest a rather fractious development and thus the need for care.

Finally, the Aussie broke higher. That came as a shock but when looking at the final stages of the losses, the Wave -v- was a mere 9.35%... That’s just one of the weirdest and probably the most shallow Wave -v- I have ever encountered… From there we have see a double zigzag… will we see a triple three or just losses?

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 4, 2018

STILL NOT QUITE DONE ON THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

However, there’s only a little more to go. Well, lets just say that GBPUSD, after a rather lethargic decline, it suddenly rose from the grave to make a new high. Meanwhile, EURUSD shunned the upside on Friday but hasn’t yet managed to confirm the high. Maybe it will follow GBPUSD but there’s no absolute outcome because of the option of a deep (higher wave degree) Wave (b)/(v). 

USDJPY and USDCHF also appear to have options right at the start. I would say that USDJPY will likely see an initial pullback lower and then resume gains while USDCHF could either see losses as in USDJPY but may make a minor corrective high first before losses. 

All of this tends to suggest the potential for relatively tight ranges over today. However, once EURUSD and GBPUSD have completed their moves we know what’s going to come next…

The Aussie returned to the downside but only to complete a 5-wave decline. There’s a little bit of room above Friday’s end-of-day high at 0.7573 but not too much. Whether it sees immediate losses or a pullback higher first is the puzzle.

As for EURJPY, we saw further gains. I can’t say it’s not a Wave -iv- but I took a longer look into the losses and feel that we are more likely to have seen the (purple) Wave -a- at 124.62. This tends to make sense because it was getting too high (although not breaking the Wave -iv- limit). However, it actually tends to suggest a pullback lower and then a final rally before deeper losses…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 1, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9826



WE SHOULD BE BACK INTO BULLISH MODE

Somehow, I was thinking that yesterday was Friday… Hmmm… Oh well, it is today anyway…

I had hoped that we had seen the high in EURUSD. Maybe we did. If that was the case, then we’re going to see a deep Wave (b)/(v). However, at this point, as long as the yesterday’s high breaks then we’re more likely to confirm alternation. GBPUSD? It could go either way – a final ABC higher or direct losses. I’d like to say that perhaps we could see a new low and then for a final ABC but frankly the upside in EURUSD is definitely limited.

USDCHF should also make a new low but should then reverse to the upside. USDJPY has most definitely found its low so we should be looking to the upside.

Just as EURUSD rallied firmly, I suspect the reversal should accelerate lower and this should see EURJPY on a piggyback ride lower. Perhaps there’s a risk of a triangle on the way down but in a Wave -v- it does suggest a slower development.

As for AUDUSD… only one way really – lower…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey