Friday, May 11, 2018


Yesterday’s moves were mostly as expected but USDCHF and GBPUSD appear to be the odd one’s out. Having said that, USDCHF it did actually make a new high by 0.00002. Is this just a bad blip with some data sources? I’m not sure. The more critical outcome was a drop below 1.3483 in GBPUSD. I tried to resolve the structure but could not. Are we seeing an extremely shallow pullback for deeper losses, perhaps an expanded flat (but which will still be a shallow pullback) or have I not quite caught the bearish structure? These two pairs need some caution today. 

Otherwise, EURUSD and AUDUSD both provided the deeper pullback we needed – and therefore, we should be seeing losses to new lows… but… then we’ll need a deeper pullback. What does this imply for GBPUSD and USDCHF? 

All this is rather disconcerting in terms of a general expectation of broad correlation between the range of pairs. Therefore, it will be important to see how this plays out. 

As for the odd-one out, USDJPY has been pretty consistent and has completed a triple three. The only issue here is that we have seen a broad abc lower that formed a Wave (i). Does it follow-through lower or see a deeper pullback. Given the expected losses in EURUSD I tend to feel that we’ll see a ratcheting correction higher. With EURJPY having completed a triple three pullback, the cross should then see losses. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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