Thursday, May 31, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 127.33



WE SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL BY THE END OF THE DAY

We really have a mixed outlook. However, the key for today is down to EURUSD and GBPUSD. They still need a bit more to the Dollar downside before a reversal. This may trigger a new low in USDJPY and more than likely in USDCHF. These endings should then set up the next stage of the journey. 

To be honest, it’s not going to be a trending day and more likely a sort-of messy swings day. Therefore, keep your trade short and sharp. If there’s any better trade then it’s when we see the extremes of the Dollar downside. 

I was all geared up to see a move into the triangle area but then it shot straight up along with EURUSD and GBPUSD. So now we have to develop a second zigzag lower. More than likely, it’ll be a rather cranky initial decline before the deeper losses.

As for EURJPY, its rally was perfect. There is a bit of room on the upside – but not too much. That will likely be due to the rising EURUSD and bearish USDJPY… Once EURUSD has completed it’s high we should see losses resume…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, May 30, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3205



WEIRD…

Yes, weird. 

EURUSD saw Dollar bullish gains.
GBPUSD saw Dollar bullish gains.
USDCHF saw Dollar bearish losses.
USDJPY saw Dollar bearish losses.

What the fer-lip? 

Today should see corrections in EURUSD and GBPUSD. 
USDJPY and USDCHF? Well, I won’t say it will be anything. I still feel that both these two pairs still need Dollar losses but there will be a risk of corrections, perhaps range trading. Basically, these two are rather difficult to judge at this point but I wouldn’t mind suggesting Dollar losses overall – but we need care initially.

The Aussie appears to be close to the Wave ^B area. Once that has been seen, we’ll likely see gains again. 

EURJPY… super charged with both USDJPY and EURUSD seeing some solid losses. It should see a modest pullback but there will still be new low at a later stage…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, May 28, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3294


DOLLAR GAINS OVER THE DAY

Friday was a mixed old bag. USDJPY decided to take a break and saw losses – perhaps just to try and be like EURUSD and GBPUSD that managed quite a decently modest decline to new lows. In the meantime, USDCHF initially rallied and then saw a dip lower. So much so for correlation between the Majors… Maybe I should coin the development as dis-correlation. 

However, I’m pretty much now in the Dollar bullish mode overall. Of course, early hours in Asia are always likely to develop some swings - and even roundabouts. Seeing EURUSD losing out from the open while USDJPY just rushed out of the blocks to look to the Dollar upside. I’d like to think that Friday’s low in USDCHF was the limit and therefore should begin to see a rally developing again – and as I write, we are seeing Dollar gains in the Swissie. It’s all rather a weird range of reactions in the early hours but overall we should see the majors converge to move the Dollar higher over the day.

Down at the bottom of the world, AUDUSD should hopefully see a pullback higher before losses resume. 

As for the spike higher this morning in EURJPY, is now developing a correction higher. Thus, watch for bearish reversal indications. I still harbour concerns in case we see a 3-wave rally that could then trigger a complex correction. However, we’re going to need some care in this development.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, May 25, 2018

THE PULLBACK APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND BARRIERS

I didn’t like yesterday… The lack of gains in the Dollar was particularly frustrating. However, I’ve noted that USDJPY has almost reached the extreme of the pullback – only 13 points above the downside break level. The Aussie is just 20 points below the Wave -iv-. The Swissie saw a new low – a final zigzag in a triple three (although it was a rather difficult development.) With a minor adjustment, EURUSD appears to have seen a Wave b/iii so GBPUSD copied its erstwhile continental buddy. 

This seems to have created a quorum…

This seems to be correct because EURJPY broke the expanded flat barrier so either EURUSD has got to go down faster than USDJPY can rally. Given that USDJPY will need to build foundation waves there’s more downside risk in EURUSD that should see the cross continue lower…

After a couple of days expecting Dollar gains, I‘m pretty sure now that we will, at last, see the Dollar resume its rally.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, May 24, 2018

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Well, perhaps – and most likely – we shall see a pullback in a few pairs – not all – but from what I see, the risk is for some deeper gains in the Dollar. This is going to need some swings but, by gum, it looks like a pretty steady process from here.

I suspect we’ll see USDJPY reach the rough 111.00 area for a pullback, losses in EURUSD for a pullback. A rally in USDCHF that reach towards the 1.0056 high for a pullback and for GBPUSD to an area around 1.3292-58. And this is just the start of the deeper gains in the Dollar…

EURJPY has finally seen some serious losses courtesy of both EURUSD and USDJPY. However, I suspect now that we’ll see the progress a little slower in the cross with both pairs expected to be Dollar bullish.

The Aussie has also formed a decent decline and should soon see a second drop. 

Therefore, overall expectation is for a stronger Dollar but later a pullback.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, May 23, 2018

RESET

Well, that wasn’t the day I expected – perhaps partly expected. USDJPY was always at risk of a deeper pullback, EURJPY had potential for a triangle – or a deeper pullback – and the Aussie did have the potential for a little higher. So, I’m basically comfortable with these pairs.

It was EURUSD and GBPUSD – even USDCHF (of which I wasn’t totally comfortable anyway) that caused a little ruckus. The two erstwhile buddies pushed higher than I had expected and that took me some while to work out what had happened. The answer was that both saw a mini Wave v but what appeared to be an ABC. Well, that was the bad news. 

BUT! The good news is that it has – I hope – we should now be seeing firmer gains in the Dollar. There could still be some hiccups along the way but the outlook I see suggests a decent move higher in the Dollar. The Asian session will likely see some corrections lower in the Dollar – not by too much – but by the European session we should hopefully see these Dollar gains I have suggested.

It should drag EURJPY lower – probably a stronger decline in EURUSD while USDJPY flaps about like it doesn’t really know what it really wants. Indeed, it should be slower over time due to the needs for several pullbacks on the way higher.

As for the Aussie, it crept a little higher but was always going to find a high – and did – so the downside should develop. However, we may see a sideways move around the 0.7440 – 60 area before deeper losses .

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, May 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1717



ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Currently we seem to be in a roller coaster ride and we’re coming to the high of another swell. Thus, expect losses over the day – maybe more than a day – to see the losses that we need to push back to newer lows. There will be a third swell at some point so there’s going to be some rough seas over the coming week. Of course, on each segment lower, we’ll see lower lows and deep pullbacks. 

As far as I can see, we’re pretty close to the pullback in EURUSD while GBPUSD may have seen its current high but I wouldn’t rule out a minor new high above 1.3440 only to see a reversal back lower. I suspect that we have seen the low in USDCHF at 0.9950 and therefore it can also make better gains.

That’s covered the Europeans. In USDJPY we still need just a little more on the downside before it can push back above yesterday’s high. Once it completes the rally from – what should be today’s lower low – we need a target that will match a (navy) Wave -iii- target. More swings to come…

The Aussie decided that it wasn’t satisfied with the Wave (iv) high and has seen a higher Wave (iv) – well, most likely but there is a risk of a minor new high before it returns lower once more.

EURJPY? Note that we are likely to see this pair reverse lower with USDJPY providing some early downside – but the stronger impact should come from EURUSD. This does tend to suggest the potential for a triangle…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, May 21, 2018

EARLY SWINGS – LATER DOLLAR GAINS

Having escaped the ranges in EURUSD and GBPUSD over the past two days, seeing some modestly decent gains in the Dollar, we’re now back in the same situation after the Europeans losses. It’s a bit like déjà vu. It therefore could see a repetition of the last few days. To be honest, there isn’t a particularly deep pullback so we may just see Europe and North America get to push the Dollar a bit higher later in the day. The only concern I have is more in USDJPY. We have seen a modest pullback but the Wave iv needs to be deeper. Of course, we could just see a deep Wave b/v so we’ll have to be alert to the alternatives. At some point, we’re going to get a stronger rally in the Dollar but whether it takes modest strides or stronger is something to consider also. 

However, coming back to today’s development, well, it actually looks like it will take the template of the past week. 

USDCHF… what a rotter… We had seen a double zigzag but with the general Dollar bullishness, I took the high road but the little blighter went sideways and then lower. I think we may have found the low but it’s not a particularly clear structure. Allow for a margin below Friday’s low… Once we have confirmed the triple three we should have a quorum in terms of Dollar bullishness. 

The Aussie looks set to go lower… EURJPY has seen a pullback. With the USDJPY alternatives and, most likely EURUSD early swings we could see some later swings too… 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, May 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7548




UP A BIT, UP A BIT MORE… AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

I can’t say that we saw a particularly firm Dollar. In USDJPY it most certainly took the opportunity to push higher again. However, the Europeans basically took a day off and took things slowly. There was always the potential for gains – just it was too slow. Therefore, today should see these three now begin to push higher – Dollar-wise. 

That leaves the other Major – in USDJPY – rather puzzling. It has seen a decent rally but as far as I can see, we can either see a direct follow-through higher – but be aware of any deep pullback. That’s not such a bad thing because we need EURJPY to move lower… That doesn’t mean to say there is a definite cap. It may just push a bit higher but I cannot conceive a stronger rally in the cross.

Even AUDUSD pushed higher. I was wondering whether it would reverse lower yesterday but it managed quite a deep pullback. This should now follow the European outlook for Dollar gains once more. 

So, overall it seems that the Europeans and dahn-unders should be looking for Dollar gains today. Just take care with USDJPY…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, May 17, 2018

UP A BIT, UP A BIT MORE…

This Dollar has really begun to show its mettle… at long last. We are building up several levels of wave degrees that tend to suggest that the market has given up with the European/Japanese currencies. I have been waiting for this moment for over a year. It’s time for two legs higher in the Dollar Index. Of course, it’s going to take some months to get through both legs but I still have incomplete structures from back as June 2013 in USDJPY and in GBPUSD from July 2014. 

However, there’s lots of work to be done. I’m not sure when it will be complete. I’d like to say by the end of this year but it’ll need some accelerated progress. 

For today, to be honest, it looks very much like yesterday. I’m just a little concerned over USDCHF. While the other Majors have been doing some good work, the Swissie has been moving sideways in what could be a triangle – but a rather weird one. This needs a break of range – and hopefully the upside otherwise it’ll be classed as a straggler. Otherwise, the other three pairs are still looking Dollar Bullish. The Aussie should turn lower today also.

Meanwhile, back in the land of crosses, it’s beginning to be hit by the bearish influence of EURUSD. It may have a respite over today – but not all day. We just have to watch both intrinsic pairs to judge when this will drop.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, May 16, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7448


UP A BIT, DOWN A BIT…

It’s never easy when you’re faced with a shallow Wave (ii) – you know, something like 14.6%. Even I was a little concerned but frankly the structure just couldn’t absorb a break above 1.3617 in GBPUSD. So, the Dollar has taken a jolly jaunt to the upside. Most likely we’ll see a pullback lower over the Asian session and into the European, but at some point we’ll need the Dollar to do what it did yesterday… Perhaps the risk may be a complex consolidation that will keep us moving sideways. 

USDJPY hasn’t completed the current rally from the 109.15 low but doesn’t have much more to go before lurching back lower – may be even an expanded flat. 

EURUSD saw some decent losses – but just in the lower degree – and that could see a deeper pullback. That should see USDCHF complete a triple three. Once that’s done and dusted we can get back to the Dollar upside. GBPUSD could follow the same route but the upside has a shallower cap so take care.

Equally, the Aussie has done one of its sharp losses that now requires a pullback before getting back to below yesterday’s low. 

As for the Cross – EURJPY – I suspect a rather limited range for the most part…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, May 14, 2018

A MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH DAY

Last week was a rather strange one. We saw USDCHF make a new high by 0.00002, perhaps just because it wanted to see the sky and then spent two days moving back lower. USDJPY spent a sleepy week where it couldn’t make up its mind on which way to go. It still has some question marks as to the next move – it has several options. EURUSD didn’t seem to want to move lower on Friday with the additional move higher just because it wanted to. However, it MUST make the outcome I mentioned on Thursday. 

However, already, GBPUSD has taken a drastic step to form a Wave (ii) of just 14.9%... Will it make a stronger decline? At this point, with the other pairs flapping around like wet kippers, I suspect a rather limited range for the moment to give time to the other pairs to follow suit. 

The Aussie – ah, I made a slight error but one that isn’t too extreme. Most likely it’ll take the same path as EURUSD except they have different structures. 

With USDJPY appearing to have imbibed a rather alcoholic substance, it will likely be a sideways t lower day while EURUSD moving lower the outcome in EURJPY appears to be bearish…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, May 11, 2018

THIS SEEMS TO BE A COMPLICATED DAY

Yesterday’s moves were mostly as expected but USDCHF and GBPUSD appear to be the odd one’s out. Having said that, USDCHF it did actually make a new high by 0.00002. Is this just a bad blip with some data sources? I’m not sure. The more critical outcome was a drop below 1.3483 in GBPUSD. I tried to resolve the structure but could not. Are we seeing an extremely shallow pullback for deeper losses, perhaps an expanded flat (but which will still be a shallow pullback) or have I not quite caught the bearish structure? These two pairs need some caution today. 

Otherwise, EURUSD and AUDUSD both provided the deeper pullback we needed – and therefore, we should be seeing losses to new lows… but… then we’ll need a deeper pullback. What does this imply for GBPUSD and USDCHF? 

All this is rather disconcerting in terms of a general expectation of broad correlation between the range of pairs. Therefore, it will be important to see how this plays out. 

As for the odd-one out, USDJPY has been pretty consistent and has completed a triple three. The only issue here is that we have seen a broad abc lower that formed a Wave (i). Does it follow-through lower or see a deeper pullback. Given the expected losses in EURUSD I tend to feel that we’ll see a ratcheting correction higher. With EURJPY having completed a triple three pullback, the cross should then see losses. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, May 10, 2018

GENERAL DOLLAR LOSSES

Basically, most of the pairs have reverted back to the Dollar downside. There are just two pairs that still haven’t managed to find a Dollar high – just EURUSD and AUDUSD. No wonder we have seen some pretty whippy swings. However, just for now, we should see these two pairs will acquiesce to provide a pullback – and ones that need to be quite deep – before they then find a final low. Well, just for now.

Already we have seen USDJPY reach to within 20 pips of the Wave (i) and USDCHF within 0.00005 pips of the 1.00552 high. Ok, that’s enough. Given that EURUSD and AUDUSD are in need of a deep pullback we’re pretty likely to going to see the other pairs generally match the Dollar downside – but as I mentioned, just for a correction. 

There may just be a slight alternative in GBPUSD – but only because it didn’t reach an extreme – we may see some minor slippage initially before continuing the gains that saw yesterday.

As for EURJPY that found a low at 129.23, we are looking at a corrective development and so far in a simple zigzag, followed by a Wave x and a Wave a. So we know we’ll need gains today but it will require a more sleepy USDJPY compared to EURUSD…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, May 9, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT129.23


GETTING CLOSER

The general sideways – to Dollar upside has continued but it shouldn’t last for too long now. EURUSD will likely still need a deep pullback and a second decline but otherwise it looks like GBPUSD could find its low today but I’ll wait just in case it goes into slow motion. USDJPY appears to have become bored with the consolidation and should see losses over the day. The only risk is a direct recovery from the open that could still see the consolidation develop.

That leaves the only other major – USDCHF – that has managed to retain a certain sense of kinda stability but suggests the potential for further losses rather similar to USDJPY. How firm this will be is uncertain but we shall have to be aware of the general Dollar bullishness in EURUSD and GBPUSD.

The Aussie… After having written yesterday’s report we saw losses and that has needed quite a decent decline and it’s not yet complete. Indeed, this pair may well be similar to GBPUSD in terms of the ragged moves. However, I don’t think we’re going to see firm losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, May 8, 2018

WE’RE STILL IN A COMPLICATED AREA

Mainly, we have basically seen a ranging consolidation – of sorts. It would appear that EURUSD may be taking the short-cut route to complete the final decline. Having said that, this will need a deep Wave b/v and that’s a key point to find its low. The other pair that has not completed a 5-wave decline is GBPUSD. There is a potential risk of the deeper Wave iv here – but we’re going to need to identify the break levels that could then end up with a deep Wave b/v also.

The other two majors – USDJPY and USDCHF – appear to have found their highs. Certainly USDJPY but I’d allow a new high in USDCHF just because it’s a very tough market to judge with its spiderlike development. On the whole, we should still be looking for Dollar losses in these two pairs soon.

The sluggish losses in EURJPY have been rather ragged but it should continue to develop losses but of course, with the required pullbacks. That tends to suggest that USDJPY will have to do the work because EURUSD needs a deep pullback at some point. The alternative is just a sideways consolidation before losses resume.

As for the Aussie, it has taken an extremely long-winded development, obviously wanting to see the outback on a tour. However, the main direction should be higher…

Good trading
Ian Copsey