Friday, September 21, 2018

GRUESOME

Corrections can be pretty hairy. Certainly, from the EURUSD and GBPUSD lows I hadn’t been able to resolve the pullback. Yesterday’s follow-through higher in both pairs – even USDCHF on the downside – were not on my radar. Most of this is down to the lower degrees that can see winding moves that are impossible to judge due to the 1-minute development – and that takes far too much time to work them out. By the time I’d completed them, I’d be a day behind. 

However… GBPUSD has only 65 points from the daily (cyan) Wave (b). In EURUSD we have 96 points from the daily (brown) Wave -b-/-iii-… Most likely we have seen the top – or a margin above. It’s GBPUSD that has been providing the complications. I suspect one of two alternatives: that we have seen the final high – or we’ll see a deep pullback and a second rally that break above 1.3298 but then seeing a reversal lower.

USDJPY still needs further gains. USDCHF is expected to see limited losses. 

Having said that we have either seen the high in EURUSD – or a margin above – and the need for gains in USDJPY, it does suggest that EURUSD must provide the downside because we have barely any room on the upside in EURJPY. 

Equally, AUDUSD has seen a deep, deep pullback and also barely any room on the upside. 

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, September 20, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD AND EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 1.3214



TARGET MET AT 131.68




STILL SOME BITS AND PIECES TO BE FINALISED

OK… GBPUSD has topped out. EURUSD appears to need a new high – along with AUDUSD. USDCHF has found its low. USDJPY, having been the leader of the bull pack, is coming to a high. What a ragged set of pairs that can’t generate any correlation…

Shame on them!

Ok, that’s a bit harsh but it has been a rather strange development over the past few weeks particularly with EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY all pushing higher together. With the exception (in the near term) that EURUSD will see a final minor new high, we should all majors working together. However, I suspect this will only find a quorum after the weekend – and that tends to suggest some consolidation/foundation wave building before any strong moves. Therefore, keep trades tight for the moment until all pairs are developing together.

Even AUDUSD still seems to have further gains to be seen but once the high been established we shall begin to see losses resume. 

Finally, I sense we have seen the final high in EURJPY. Thus, we should be looking for losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, September 19, 2018

STILL SOME REMNANTS LEFT

I’ve been a bit frustrated the past few days looking for the final highs in EURUSD and GBPUSD. I am certain that we shall see Dollar gains but a sudden twist develops. I am also aware that, in these two pairs, we’re getting closer to break levels. EURUSD needs to complete a 3-wave rally that should hold below 1.1851 high and GBPUSD shall either see direct losses – but then a second rally - or if it goes directly higher then there’s a chance of seeing a high an earlier high.

Meanwhile, USDJPY has maintained its bullish outlook but does seem to be approaching a high for a pullback. With these pairs seeing some broad swings, USDCHF has seen a pullback higher but will then need another new low. However, once that final low is seen, it should turn higher – and for quite a rally.

EURJPY has been a persistent bull but there are pretty decent hourly and 4-hour bearish divergences. Therefore, something’s got to break at some point – and that should be lower.

Down under the Aussie has approached the Wave (b) high. We shall either see a break higher – or (obviously) a reversal lower. Even if we see the break higher it won’t last long so best keep watching for bearish reversal indications.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, September 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3166




DOLLAR GAINS TO BE SEEN

What a slow day. Have we seen the high in GBPUSD? The rally was a tough development so I have some doubts. However, we have either seen the high – or we’ll see a minor new high before losses resume. That should see the Majors – except USDCHF – in a Dollar bullish quorum. It seems that USDCHF (the renegade) needs another 5-wave decline to complete a triple three and I have to say that this pair is a glorious pain in the backside…

So… over the day we should now begin to make Dollar upside progress – and overall we are now at the beginning a stronger daily development. 

Having said that, we shall need to first develop the foundation waves - how deep the follow-through will be and then the pullback, So we’re not likely to see any particularly strong moves today. In EURUSD we saw the pullback in the Wave (b) and now we should look for the Wave (c)/(i). At this early stage, without any clear development, it’s rather difficult to judge how strong this next leg lower will develop. Therefore, we shall need to follow the decline and watch for bullish divergences to provide the low.

USDJPY should see gains today. GBPUSD should end the day lower. The Aussie has already seen some decent losses and we should see follow-through. With EURUSD topped out but a firmer USDJPY we could see some consolidations at times but overall I suspect EURUSD will be stronger than USDJPY.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, September 17, 2018

TODAY WILL COMPLETE THE REVERSAL TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

To be honest, it’s only GBPUSD that has not yet found its high. USDCHF managed that on Friday along with EURUSD. We all know that USDJPY has already been climbing the Dollar ladder for the past week. Will GBPUSD find its high today? Most likely it will. 

Having said that, we’re likely to see EURUSD see an early pullback higher before we can begin the process of developing Dollar bullish foundation waves for the next leg higher. Most likely USDCHF will see a minor pullback lower. Once GBPUSD has completed the next rally all four majors should –finally – come back into correlation. 

With EURUSD seeing a pullback in the early stages and the potential for USDJPY to also push higher, the risk is for a modestly firm pullback. The combination of EURUSD and GBPUSD should see a decent swing higher and back. 

Barring the possibility of an expanded flat in AUDUSD, the Antipodean should follow the main pack on the Dollar upside…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, September 14, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1701




CLOSER TO A REVERSAL

Having provided the headline suggesting a closer reversal soon, this tends to refer to EURUSD and GBPUSD only. In the meantime, while these two pairs were vying to see how strong they can be, USDJPY has been taking the lead on the Dollar bullish side. Indeed, it is already pushing higher this morning. I also feel that USDCHF has most likely found its low - although without a particularly strong bullish divergence. 

The issue I have with EURUSD and GBPUSD is that I feel we have completed an expanded flat in EURUSD while GBPUSD does still need further gains. Maybe EURUSD could see a minor new high but GBPUSD still needs a modest follow-through. This will need a little care, particularly in EURUSD…

The bullish drive in USDJPY has been pushing EURJPY even higher but I suspect we’re close to a final high. It would be perfect if EURUSD tumbles earlier to turn off the gas to allow GBPUSD to see its follow-through.

As for AUDUSD, it’s always a tough grind. It has a mind of its own and once again it has evaded my expectations. Very much depends on the next break – whether upside or down…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, September 13, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 111.12




STILL A MIXED BAG

I’ll be glad when EURUSD and GBPUSD have finally completed their moves. It seems that the other 4 pairs are pretty much developing as “normal” in terms of correlation although USDJPY and USDCHF may see a minor blip. USDJPY should be set for gains while USDCHF may still see a slightly deeper loss before these two pairs rally together. 

EURUSD and GBPUSD still need further gains but EURUSD should see a cap earlier than GBPUSD. Indeed, we may see GBPUSD move higher into tomorrow – perhaps even over the weekend into Monday. This tends to suggest that we’re going to continue some rather languid development through today and into early next week.

With USDJPY set to move back higher along with a (limited) rally in EURUSD the outcome should be a higher EURJPY but probably not breach the 130.95 high. Therefore, this could provide a good bearish trigger for what should be some solid losses.

Down under we’ve seen a deeper pullback but, as with EURJPY, there is very little wriggle room below the 0.7191 high. Thus, place stops above that high for some decent losses – once again with what should be some decent losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, September 12, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 111.57



SLOWLY UNWINDING

The past few days have been rather complicated. Only USDJPY and AUDUSD appear to be “normal.” Perhaps, having seen the development in GBPUSD develop, we should see follow-through but it was a surprising, ratcheting rally that I hadn’t anticipated - but the politicians and their egos will always play silly games. 

In particular, EURUSD has still to complete what looks to be a complex irregular triangle and that’s going to need a day or two to resolve by the look of things. USDCHF is still a rather complicated pair. Did we see a 58.6% projection down to the 0.9641? I rarely see these projections within an impulsive move. However, yesterday it managed to complete a 5-wave rally. The next break will probably provide a follow-through.

I’ve adjusted the structure in EURJPY. This makes more sense. The only issue is a possible expanded flat in USDJPY along with a minor pullback in EURUSD. How the balance between these two pairs develops will tend to suggest an initial consolidation before a stronger move.

The Aussie has a limited upside before further losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, September 11, 2018

THAT WAS A WEIRD AND UN-WONDERFUL DAY

Bullish GBPUSD, bullish USDCHF, bullish USDJPY and bullish EURUSD. Hey, guess what? A bullish EURJPY. It was only AUDUSD that managed to see some “normal” development – although not that it really made much of a deal.

So what have we got now? Well, GBPUSD should see gains. EURUSD should see gains. Oh, and USDCHF should see gains. Should I have mentioned EURJPY? Well, ok it will make gains but limited and that will be due to the fact that we are likely to see a pullback lower in USDJPY.

Since EURJPY is seeing an expanded flat, we’re likely to see limited gains only. The same can be said of EURUSD. The outstanding pair is still GBPUSD that still has a way to go higher. Once that has found the high it should trigger a reversal back to the downside.

Once all that strange and wonderful development has been completed we should begin to go back to normality.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, September 10, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 110.38



SENSING COMPLICATIONS

This past week has seen some slow, soporific and downright boring development. What’s more, I’m coming to the conclusion that we may see more of the same. In EURUSD, I have been looking for a follow-through lower within a rather weird Wave c/i but I’m beginning to consider a complex correction. At the same time, GBPUSD appears to need losses although there is some space above that could be seen first. 

Equally, there appears to be a risk of losses in USDCHF and I’d rather like to see what happens in USDJPY – there may be a risk of overlaps in the development that could take the Dollar lower. AUDUSD requires a pullback – perhaps similarly to GBPUSD could see – before any further losses. 

I really feel that we need to take things carefully until there is a stronger breakout that will trigger a more directional move – and ideally Dollar bullish. Therefore, use a smaller trade size until a stronger break is seen.

Finally in EURJPY, if my outlook is correct, it looks as if we may see a whippy day but with a relatively narrow range.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, September 7, 2018

MORE SOMNAMBULANT DEVELOPMENT?

Having just come back from the other side of the world and trying to cope with the jet lag, it seems the market has followed my sleep patterns. EURUSD and GBPUSD definitely had day off and I suspect we may see yet another. Whether the market can generate the strength to finally see a more definite trend today is possible but the way things are going, it may only be towards the end of the day…

The other pairing of the majors, USDJPY and USDCHF, are now completing a deep pullback. Once that is done, we’re going to need to form the bullish foundation waves – and that will likely limit the range once again. It’s hardly likely that we’re going to see some decent trends – or only towards the end of the day. 

Perhaps we’ll see a similar development as described above in EURJPY. Yes, it did manage a decent decline but we’re now coming towards a low for a pullback. Yes, once again we have the potential for a rather limited range day…

Yesterday was quite a sleepy old day, in the bottom right of the planet. It seems that we could see a deeper pullback higher now. 

Once all these sleeping tablets begin to dissolve, we should see some decent Dollar gains but we may have to wait until after the weekend…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, September 6, 2018

EARLY CAUTION FOLLOWED BY DOLLAR GAINS

First of all, while I did some analysis, the amount of development over the week could see some errors. I hope I’ve gotten the structure correct but it will be best to limit position sizes. As far as I can see we may see some initial limited Dollar downside I am looking for the upside still. Basically, that tends to sum up what I am expecting over the rest of the week.

In particular, it’s USDJPY that gave me the more difficult outlook but that also tends to suggest that the other pairs could be the same. At this point we seem to be having to build the foundation waves for the next stronger Dollar bullish move but this will probably see some limited pullbacks at times. Once those foundation waves have been completed we should see a stronger impulsive development. 

In EURJPY, I see that we have confirmed a Wave -i- and may have seen the Wave -ii- but that’s going to need both USDJPY and EURUSD to work it out between them. However, overall, the outcome should be bearish…

Down under, we have seen some decent bearish development. Here we may see a risk of a moderately firmer pullback before the losses resume. We’re going to need to keep an eye on bearish divergences developing to allow the downside to resume…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, August 27, 2018

PLEASE NOTE THAT I SHALL BE TAKING A BREAK THRU THE 5TH SEPTEMBER

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ON THE 6TH SEPTEMBER.

WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR GAINS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEK

Hmmm, Friday was rather a weird old day – nothing like I had expected. Even EURUSD made a new high but I’m pretty certain that it was the final high. Therefore, over the coming week – to the 5thSeptember I’ll be out of touch and I’ll begin from the 6thAugust. I shall be looking at the charts just to keep track of how things develop otherwise I couldn’t do 7 days of analysis in one day…

What I have done is provide a broad outlook for the 6 pairs. Thankfully, it shouldn’t be a weird and wonderful development. Only the corrections will need some care on the way through. However, once we begin on the bullish road again we’re going to see some jolly spanking Dollar gains so we should see a stronger move towards the daily/weekly targets that I have in mind. No, I don’t think one week will achieve that but what I have done is provide a template as to how the Dollar bullish development should develop. 

I’ll be leaving Tokyo at 30 degrees and landing in London at 20 degrees – and down to 10 degrees overnight. Sounds bad but the humidity we have been having is making me mouldy! 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, August 24, 2018

FOLLOW-THROUGH AND PULLBACK

Having seen the highs that formed the Wave (ii)’s in EURUSD and GBPUSD, we are still looking for further losses. Not all is quite correlated so I’m not expecting the 4 majors to develop in synchronicity. Most likely, the early stages appear to be moving together well. It’s just EURUSD that appears to need a stronger decline. Indeed, with very limited upside in EURJPY the risk is for EURUSD to generate deeper decline. GBPUSD, in comparison, will see losses but I feel they won’t be as strong as EURUSD. In fact, EURGBP is due quite some decent losses. So much for the expectation within the silly, childish spat between UK and the EU…

USDJPY needs a pullback and a final rally. USDCHF needs a little more work to complete a Wave v to complete a (green) Wave [c]/[i]. This will need a firm follow-through although in this pair, it always makes a mountain out of a molehill.

Lastly, the upside down currency may well be the strongest of all the pairs that should see quite a decent follow-through…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, August 23, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 128.27





OH! WE HAVE A SURPRISE IN STORE…

That wasn’t meant to happen yesterday… Additional Dollar losses. I was always looking for GBPUSD to be corrective – but I had thought that in EURUSD we were seeing an impulsive move but the follow-through higher did not provide alternation all the way through from the 1.1301 low… There’s still some risk of initial Dollar losses but once this finds a high the outcome looks pretty much as I expected. We’re certainly seeing hourly Dollar bullish divergences.

There can still be a final leg(s) to see Dollar losses but by the end of today I suspect we’ll be grappling with the Dollar bullish foundation waves…

This makes sense in terms of AUDUSD still making additional highs although there’s very little wriggle room on the upside. Therefore, we’re still getting a Dollar bullish outcome.

Overall, once EURUSD has topped out we should see EURJPY reversing back to the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, August 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7382




DOLLAR GAINS

Phew, I thought we’d have a relatively limited Dollar downside yesterday. Well, it darn well went slowly and with a lower Dollar that took it towards the end of the day. It was only USDJPY that took the initiative to see Dollar gains – although limited to the first reversal target. So… guess what?! Now we shall see all Dollar pairs looking for a stronger Dollar. Most likely, in the early stages, we shall need the (Dollar) bullish form the foundation waves and that tends to suggest a move through the Asian session and into the European. No doubt that this will the allow the U.S. to carry it through.

There’s only one pair that I have some issues – that’s in GBPUSD. I think I’ve found a solution but it may be prudent to allow for a new high before losses.

Even AUDUSD has found a high and instead of just a correction there is the potential for new lows below 0.7202. Whether it breaks below that low or just a limited decline and a pullback for losses to resume below 0.7202.

With EURUSD looking bearish and USDJPY rather diffident on the upside we’re likely to see losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey