Friday, June 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FIR USDJPY



110.50 AND 110.65 BOTH SEEN PRECISELY - THE HIGH AT 110.77



THE EARLY STAGES NEED CARE

Well, that wasn’t what I had expected… The early stages were pretty ok although I had expected deeper gains in the Dollar. I had my evening meal and just before laying my head on the pillow I saw these dirty great Dollar losses. The outcome is rather tense. I’d like to think that EURUSD has topped out but there is the risk of a push above 1.1646 for a reversal. 

This also screwed up GBPUSD. The adjustment I made looks kinda ok but I do have reservations. I certainly wouldn’t want a break above yesterday’s high… The Wave iv I have used was a 56% retracement so it doesn’t really have much room before a deep pullback.

This allowed a deeper pullback in USDCHF and USDJPY – but I caught the latter and knew we’d have to see a deep pullback. However, it’s rather close to the break level that would extend losses even further. This takes us to EURUSD. We shall either see an expanded flat; or… we’ve seen an expanded flat for direct losses… 

Meanwhile, the Aussie made a new low by 2 points. It was enough – and with hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences. How deep any pullback will be is totally unknown but I can’t really see losses at this stage…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 21, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7409


A MORE DIRECTIONAL DAY TODAY

Yesterday did see some directional development but there were a few pairs that really decided to have a nap. USDJPY was quite forthright in pushing higher. However, today should see the Dollar make some decent gains. Therefore, we should see AUDUSD make losses – but not off the bat. It does need a pullback before deeper losses. Equally, EURUSD began to lose its way with a sharp decline and then a deeper pullback – and that should now see those losses. USDCHF played the same game of up-a-bit, down-a-bit and snooze. However, it does now have the right outlook for a bullish move – perhaps even towards the 1.0056 high. 

GBPUSD completed a Wave a and then a pullback in Wave b. That sets the scene for deeper losses – and about time too. With EURUSD now embarking on the downside we should see EURJPY edging lower again. I suspect EURUSD will have a stronger move compared to USDJPY but there could be some consolidation on the way.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, June 20, 2018

WELL, THAT WAS A SURPRISE…

The Dollar actually managed to break above the recent highs… I looked at the Dollar Index and basically it has not yet satisfied alternation – and that’s actually quite a deep pullback. Now that we have seen further Dollar gains I suspect we’re going to see a shallower follow through and reversal. In EURUSD I suspect a stubbier Wave (c)/(i) and also USDCHF. Once they have formed these targets it will imply a deep Wave (ii). However, I can’t see this happening in GBPUSD. It now needs to complete the current decline – and that’s suggests deeper losses. Perhaps we shall see a consolidation at some point to let the others look for a pullback lower in the Dollar. 

I’m cautious in USDJPY – a potential expanded flat – but frankly, in the 5-min market, it doesn’t really have too much say to be honest so I’m still rather cautious in this pair. EURJPY is finely balanced and has choices on both sides of the current price. I’d suggest caution here today.

Finally, the Aussie needs to see a deeper pullback from the 0.7347 low before a new low.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 18, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1543




PULLBACK TO CONTINUE

Friday’s sharp move higher in the Dollar finally came to a halt to then develop a correction. I’m expecting to see a deeper pullback. However, there’s a limit. Forgetting USDJPY for the moment, EURUSD and USDCHF saw the Dollar rally in a 5-wave move. In GBPUSD, the decline was also a 5-wave move but compared to the other two Europeans, GBPUSD had completed a Wave a/iii. While we can’t say that these three will see their corrections develop in the same proportion, it does suggest that we’re not going to see an extreme pullback. 

Coming back to USDJPY, we’re going to have to watch the move. There’s room on the downside and even the potential for further gains. However, if I have my own way then I’d guess that we’ll see a correction lower before the next push higher develops. 

In EURJPY, I could see the potential for the EURUSD/USDCHF vs GBPUSD to form a corrective development. So far we have seen a completed zigzag followed by a Wave -x-, a Wave -a- and this morning’s dip in a Wave -b-. Therefore we’ll be due a Wave -c- but we haven’t enough information to generate any targets. However, once that has been seen, it will be interesting to note the final zigzag in a triple three. This would tend to suggest that it may find a rough cap for Dollar gains to resume.

The Aussie? Swings – bearish ones… but relatively limited.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 15, 2018

PULLBACKS

The expected losses in the Dollar mainly developed well. That EURUSD actually made a new high was a bit of a surprise although in GBPUSD managed to reach the 1.3447 level – and that’s when all hell let loose. Attempting to judge that decline was not an easy matter although – as far as I have seen, we’ve found some Dollar highs. That the decline developed in a 5-wave move, it tends to suggest a modest pullback higher at the very least. It could even be higher.

USDJPY dithered, probably giddy with EURUSD and GBPUSD development and basically the Japanese currency merely attempted to do very little. This tends to suggest a new low today while EURUSD and GBPUSD see their pullbacks. The weirdest structure was USDCHF, pushing to a new high, then a new low, basically developing an expanding triangle. Once that was complete the Swissie managed to put flame to the to upside. It may just make a minor new high before a reversal. 

The Aussie should now see losses towards the Wave iii.

After a rather trying development in EURJPY – that did make a minor new high – EURUSD jumped on a piggyback for sharp losses to form a Wave (a). Hey, guess what? We’ll need a pullback first before any further losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, June 13, 2018

AND THE MARKET CHOSE TO BREAK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

I can’t say it was a marvellous day. However, I wasn’t really expecting a grand rush. Yesterday I mentioned the Price Equilibrium Clouds and looking for a break to the Dollar upside. USDJPY, EURUSD and AUDUSD broke through the Clouds to push higher in the Dollar. USDCHF was rather reticent and basically provided a sideways move but still without breaking below the 4-hour Cloud low. Equally, GBPUSD decided to follow the Swissie’s sideways move. AUDUSD is struggling a bit but should see that it’s lagging and I’m pretty certain that it’ll break below both hourly & 4-hour Clouds. 

Basically, the outcome should be Dollar bullish again today but will have some initial swings – not really a surprise in the Asian centre. By the European session the Dollar upside risk will grow and push into the North American session. 

If possible, just ride the Asian session and look for decent signs of any pullback to buy into. I suspect by the end of the day that we’ll be looking a little more bullish…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 11, 2018

FRIDAY'S (ALTERNATIVE) FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1727


BEST STILL TAKE CARE


I spent quite some time over the weekend resolving EURUSD in particular. I created what I had thought was a great solution. However, when writing the beginning of the report I realised that there was still an error. However, when I look at the range of pairs I still get the perception that they are looking to still push higher in the Dollar. 

Even if I have made a mistake, frankly the relatively shallow pullback could be considered enough because we do still need deeper losses overtime. Therefore, I’m still (more cautiously) looking for Dollar gains but this does make GBPUSD rather uncertain - but still bearish. 

There is room for a pullback but it’s not going to be too deep. Therefore, it’s a rather difficult outcome to judge at this point. 

As for the Aussie, we saw quite a decent decline on Friday to form a Wave [i] but how deep will the Wave [ii] be? That’s just another puzzle to work out…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, June 8, 2018

A CAUTIOUS START

When EURUSD broke higher, ignoring my expectation, it created a massive problem. From 01:15 when I arose from my slumber, I have been trying to resolve the structures – both lower degree and daily. I came up with two options although I’ve still to ratify the structures. Of course, I have the other pairs that also provide information. For EURUSD, I have a daily chart that needs confirmation but appears to be in line with the other pairs – while the hourly decline from 1.2413 to 1.1510 is yet not clarified at all (despite lots of attempts.)

However, feel that even if we have seen a new low in USDCHF, I feel that I’ve resolved the issue and thus yesterday’s low should be the final low. At the same time, in GBPUSD, I hadn’t expected a break above 1.3444 to reach 1.3472, that was a possible target a couple of days ago. I have also found an alternative for USDJPY. It does have some minor risk of a deeper pullback but with USDCHF having been ratified I suspect we’ll see direct gains. 

So… overall, while rather cautious, I feel we’re going to see the Dollar gains I expected a few days ago… 

That EURJPY has seen the Wave b/iii at the 84% retracement, while there is a little more room that could be used, the solid hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences are really suggesting losses. Well, it’s not USDJPY that’s going to fuel that – so it’s down to a bearish EURUSD. 

As for AUDUSD, I’d really like to suggest that we have seen the final high but I’m not particularly confident. However, a break below 0.7594 will signal losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 7, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3444



A MISCHEVIOUS GREMLIN

USDJPY and USDCHF did their best to provide the Dollar gains. While USDJPY managed to make slow but steady gains, USDCHF decided to continue to ride in a roller coaster but managed to remain above the 0.9826 low. 

Then came the Gremlin… EURUSD broke above 1.1762. So that provided me with a Sudoku problem but which has been resolved. Indeed, it has actually provided the solution for the stronger outlook – but on the downside. At the same time, GBPUSD reached the target areas I had been looking for.

Now we can swat the Gremlin… 

The Aussie appears to need just a little more on the upside before resuming the downtrend. Equally, with EURUSD pushing higher – along with USDJPY – we have moved to a rather deep pullback. 

This is the time for Dollar gains once more – but equally across all Dollar pairs…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, June 6, 2018

STILL LOOKING FOR DOLLAR GAINS

Yesterday provided the gains in the Dollar – but then a deep correction. That was annoying but clearly within the individual structures we’ve only just started the next leg higher. The only disappointing issue as that GBPUSD decided that it really wanted to make another high. However, we’re within spitting distance of the high and that will then trigger the downside to confirm Dollar gains.

As the day begins, we should see USDJPY correcting lower. I suspect it won’t be too deep because USDCHF has barely any room on the downside. EURUSD is pretty much in the same situation – just 12 pips below the Wave (iv) high. 

Overall, it suggests the normal Asian session that tends to prefer limited ranges and that actually suits the balance to allow GBPUSD to make a final high for all 4 majors to point to the Dollar upside.

Another annoyance is that EURJPY has just pushed above the prior high at 128.71 to reach 128.76. However, I suspect – and have just confirmed that instead of a triple three, we have seen a single zigzag higher… Therefore, we should soon see losses.

As for the Aussie, it seems it needs a little deeper pullback before losses resume…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, June 5, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9829



DOLLAR DOWNSIDE DONE AND DUSTED

Yesterday completed the pullbacks in GBPUSD and EURUSD. Long live the Dollar – well, for some more months… Basically, we should now be looking for the Dollar upside to develop. Already, USDJPY and USDCHF have already completed the early stages of the next rally. This should see GBPUSD forming a Wave i later in the day while EURUSD needs to complete a 3-wave decline in a Wave v. This tends to suggest that we’ll likely see some range trading/correction so the risk of strong moves is rather unlikely. However, at this point, we should see the Dollar looking for gains but with swings.

Therefore, overall, we are looking at a Dollar bullish outlook through the 4-majors over today and probably tomorrow. 

I feel we have seen the top of EURJPY although we’ll have to manage possible sideways moves at times but overall we should see losses. Having said that, as I noted above, EURUSD doesn’t look like a developing in a strong decline while USDJPY really needs to get going on the upside. This tends to suggest a rather fractious development and thus the need for care.

Finally, the Aussie broke higher. That came as a shock but when looking at the final stages of the losses, the Wave -v- was a mere 9.35%... That’s just one of the weirdest and probably the most shallow Wave -v- I have ever encountered… From there we have see a double zigzag… will we see a triple three or just losses?

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 4, 2018

STILL NOT QUITE DONE ON THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

However, there’s only a little more to go. Well, lets just say that GBPUSD, after a rather lethargic decline, it suddenly rose from the grave to make a new high. Meanwhile, EURUSD shunned the upside on Friday but hasn’t yet managed to confirm the high. Maybe it will follow GBPUSD but there’s no absolute outcome because of the option of a deep (higher wave degree) Wave (b)/(v). 

USDJPY and USDCHF also appear to have options right at the start. I would say that USDJPY will likely see an initial pullback lower and then resume gains while USDCHF could either see losses as in USDJPY but may make a minor corrective high first before losses. 

All of this tends to suggest the potential for relatively tight ranges over today. However, once EURUSD and GBPUSD have completed their moves we know what’s going to come next…

The Aussie returned to the downside but only to complete a 5-wave decline. There’s a little bit of room above Friday’s end-of-day high at 0.7573 but not too much. Whether it sees immediate losses or a pullback higher first is the puzzle.

As for EURJPY, we saw further gains. I can’t say it’s not a Wave -iv- but I took a longer look into the losses and feel that we are more likely to have seen the (purple) Wave -a- at 124.62. This tends to make sense because it was getting too high (although not breaking the Wave -iv- limit). However, it actually tends to suggest a pullback lower and then a final rally before deeper losses…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, June 1, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9826



WE SHOULD BE BACK INTO BULLISH MODE

Somehow, I was thinking that yesterday was Friday… Hmmm… Oh well, it is today anyway…

I had hoped that we had seen the high in EURUSD. Maybe we did. If that was the case, then we’re going to see a deep Wave (b)/(v). However, at this point, as long as the yesterday’s high breaks then we’re more likely to confirm alternation. GBPUSD? It could go either way – a final ABC higher or direct losses. I’d like to say that perhaps we could see a new low and then for a final ABC but frankly the upside in EURUSD is definitely limited.

USDCHF should also make a new low but should then reverse to the upside. USDJPY has most definitely found its low so we should be looking to the upside.

Just as EURUSD rallied firmly, I suspect the reversal should accelerate lower and this should see EURJPY on a piggyback ride lower. Perhaps there’s a risk of a triangle on the way down but in a Wave -v- it does suggest a slower development.

As for AUDUSD… only one way really – lower…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, May 31, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 127.33



WE SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL BY THE END OF THE DAY

We really have a mixed outlook. However, the key for today is down to EURUSD and GBPUSD. They still need a bit more to the Dollar downside before a reversal. This may trigger a new low in USDJPY and more than likely in USDCHF. These endings should then set up the next stage of the journey. 

To be honest, it’s not going to be a trending day and more likely a sort-of messy swings day. Therefore, keep your trade short and sharp. If there’s any better trade then it’s when we see the extremes of the Dollar downside. 

I was all geared up to see a move into the triangle area but then it shot straight up along with EURUSD and GBPUSD. So now we have to develop a second zigzag lower. More than likely, it’ll be a rather cranky initial decline before the deeper losses.

As for EURJPY, its rally was perfect. There is a bit of room on the upside – but not too much. That will likely be due to the rising EURUSD and bearish USDJPY… Once EURUSD has completed it’s high we should see losses resume…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, May 30, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3205



WEIRD…

Yes, weird. 

EURUSD saw Dollar bullish gains.
GBPUSD saw Dollar bullish gains.
USDCHF saw Dollar bearish losses.
USDJPY saw Dollar bearish losses.

What the fer-lip? 

Today should see corrections in EURUSD and GBPUSD. 
USDJPY and USDCHF? Well, I won’t say it will be anything. I still feel that both these two pairs still need Dollar losses but there will be a risk of corrections, perhaps range trading. Basically, these two are rather difficult to judge at this point but I wouldn’t mind suggesting Dollar losses overall – but we need care initially.

The Aussie appears to be close to the Wave ^B area. Once that has been seen, we’ll likely see gains again. 

EURJPY… super charged with both USDJPY and EURUSD seeing some solid losses. It should see a modest pullback but there will still be new low at a later stage…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, May 28, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3294


DOLLAR GAINS OVER THE DAY

Friday was a mixed old bag. USDJPY decided to take a break and saw losses – perhaps just to try and be like EURUSD and GBPUSD that managed quite a decently modest decline to new lows. In the meantime, USDCHF initially rallied and then saw a dip lower. So much so for correlation between the Majors… Maybe I should coin the development as dis-correlation. 

However, I’m pretty much now in the Dollar bullish mode overall. Of course, early hours in Asia are always likely to develop some swings - and even roundabouts. Seeing EURUSD losing out from the open while USDJPY just rushed out of the blocks to look to the Dollar upside. I’d like to think that Friday’s low in USDCHF was the limit and therefore should begin to see a rally developing again – and as I write, we are seeing Dollar gains in the Swissie. It’s all rather a weird range of reactions in the early hours but overall we should see the majors converge to move the Dollar higher over the day.

Down at the bottom of the world, AUDUSD should hopefully see a pullback higher before losses resume. 

As for the spike higher this morning in EURJPY, is now developing a correction higher. Thus, watch for bearish reversal indications. I still harbour concerns in case we see a 3-wave rally that could then trigger a complex correction. However, we’re going to need some care in this development.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, May 25, 2018

THE PULLBACK APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND BARRIERS

I didn’t like yesterday… The lack of gains in the Dollar was particularly frustrating. However, I’ve noted that USDJPY has almost reached the extreme of the pullback – only 13 points above the downside break level. The Aussie is just 20 points below the Wave -iv-. The Swissie saw a new low – a final zigzag in a triple three (although it was a rather difficult development.) With a minor adjustment, EURUSD appears to have seen a Wave b/iii so GBPUSD copied its erstwhile continental buddy. 

This seems to have created a quorum…

This seems to be correct because EURJPY broke the expanded flat barrier so either EURUSD has got to go down faster than USDJPY can rally. Given that USDJPY will need to build foundation waves there’s more downside risk in EURUSD that should see the cross continue lower…

After a couple of days expecting Dollar gains, I‘m pretty sure now that we will, at last, see the Dollar resume its rally.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, May 24, 2018

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Well, perhaps – and most likely – we shall see a pullback in a few pairs – not all – but from what I see, the risk is for some deeper gains in the Dollar. This is going to need some swings but, by gum, it looks like a pretty steady process from here.

I suspect we’ll see USDJPY reach the rough 111.00 area for a pullback, losses in EURUSD for a pullback. A rally in USDCHF that reach towards the 1.0056 high for a pullback and for GBPUSD to an area around 1.3292-58. And this is just the start of the deeper gains in the Dollar…

EURJPY has finally seen some serious losses courtesy of both EURUSD and USDJPY. However, I suspect now that we’ll see the progress a little slower in the cross with both pairs expected to be Dollar bullish.

The Aussie has also formed a decent decline and should soon see a second drop. 

Therefore, overall expectation is for a stronger Dollar but later a pullback.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, May 23, 2018

RESET

Well, that wasn’t the day I expected – perhaps partly expected. USDJPY was always at risk of a deeper pullback, EURJPY had potential for a triangle – or a deeper pullback – and the Aussie did have the potential for a little higher. So, I’m basically comfortable with these pairs.

It was EURUSD and GBPUSD – even USDCHF (of which I wasn’t totally comfortable anyway) that caused a little ruckus. The two erstwhile buddies pushed higher than I had expected and that took me some while to work out what had happened. The answer was that both saw a mini Wave v but what appeared to be an ABC. Well, that was the bad news. 

BUT! The good news is that it has – I hope – we should now be seeing firmer gains in the Dollar. There could still be some hiccups along the way but the outlook I see suggests a decent move higher in the Dollar. The Asian session will likely see some corrections lower in the Dollar – not by too much – but by the European session we should hopefully see these Dollar gains I have suggested.

It should drag EURJPY lower – probably a stronger decline in EURUSD while USDJPY flaps about like it doesn’t really know what it really wants. Indeed, it should be slower over time due to the needs for several pullbacks on the way higher.

As for the Aussie, it crept a little higher but was always going to find a high – and did – so the downside should develop. However, we may see a sideways move around the 0.7440 – 60 area before deeper losses .

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, May 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1717



ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Currently we seem to be in a roller coaster ride and we’re coming to the high of another swell. Thus, expect losses over the day – maybe more than a day – to see the losses that we need to push back to newer lows. There will be a third swell at some point so there’s going to be some rough seas over the coming week. Of course, on each segment lower, we’ll see lower lows and deep pullbacks. 

As far as I can see, we’re pretty close to the pullback in EURUSD while GBPUSD may have seen its current high but I wouldn’t rule out a minor new high above 1.3440 only to see a reversal back lower. I suspect that we have seen the low in USDCHF at 0.9950 and therefore it can also make better gains.

That’s covered the Europeans. In USDJPY we still need just a little more on the downside before it can push back above yesterday’s high. Once it completes the rally from – what should be today’s lower low – we need a target that will match a (navy) Wave -iii- target. More swings to come…

The Aussie decided that it wasn’t satisfied with the Wave (iv) high and has seen a higher Wave (iv) – well, most likely but there is a risk of a minor new high before it returns lower once more.

EURJPY? Note that we are likely to see this pair reverse lower with USDJPY providing some early downside – but the stronger impact should come from EURUSD. This does tend to suggest the potential for a triangle…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, May 21, 2018

EARLY SWINGS – LATER DOLLAR GAINS

Having escaped the ranges in EURUSD and GBPUSD over the past two days, seeing some modestly decent gains in the Dollar, we’re now back in the same situation after the Europeans losses. It’s a bit like déjà vu. It therefore could see a repetition of the last few days. To be honest, there isn’t a particularly deep pullback so we may just see Europe and North America get to push the Dollar a bit higher later in the day. The only concern I have is more in USDJPY. We have seen a modest pullback but the Wave iv needs to be deeper. Of course, we could just see a deep Wave b/v so we’ll have to be alert to the alternatives. At some point, we’re going to get a stronger rally in the Dollar but whether it takes modest strides or stronger is something to consider also. 

However, coming back to today’s development, well, it actually looks like it will take the template of the past week. 

USDCHF… what a rotter… We had seen a double zigzag but with the general Dollar bullishness, I took the high road but the little blighter went sideways and then lower. I think we may have found the low but it’s not a particularly clear structure. Allow for a margin below Friday’s low… Once we have confirmed the triple three we should have a quorum in terms of Dollar bullishness. 

The Aussie looks set to go lower… EURJPY has seen a pullback. With the USDJPY alternatives and, most likely EURUSD early swings we could see some later swings too… 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, May 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7548




UP A BIT, UP A BIT MORE… AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

I can’t say that we saw a particularly firm Dollar. In USDJPY it most certainly took the opportunity to push higher again. However, the Europeans basically took a day off and took things slowly. There was always the potential for gains – just it was too slow. Therefore, today should see these three now begin to push higher – Dollar-wise. 

That leaves the other Major – in USDJPY – rather puzzling. It has seen a decent rally but as far as I can see, we can either see a direct follow-through higher – but be aware of any deep pullback. That’s not such a bad thing because we need EURJPY to move lower… That doesn’t mean to say there is a definite cap. It may just push a bit higher but I cannot conceive a stronger rally in the cross.

Even AUDUSD pushed higher. I was wondering whether it would reverse lower yesterday but it managed quite a deep pullback. This should now follow the European outlook for Dollar gains once more. 

So, overall it seems that the Europeans and dahn-unders should be looking for Dollar gains today. Just take care with USDJPY…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, May 17, 2018

UP A BIT, UP A BIT MORE…

This Dollar has really begun to show its mettle… at long last. We are building up several levels of wave degrees that tend to suggest that the market has given up with the European/Japanese currencies. I have been waiting for this moment for over a year. It’s time for two legs higher in the Dollar Index. Of course, it’s going to take some months to get through both legs but I still have incomplete structures from back as June 2013 in USDJPY and in GBPUSD from July 2014. 

However, there’s lots of work to be done. I’m not sure when it will be complete. I’d like to say by the end of this year but it’ll need some accelerated progress. 

For today, to be honest, it looks very much like yesterday. I’m just a little concerned over USDCHF. While the other Majors have been doing some good work, the Swissie has been moving sideways in what could be a triangle – but a rather weird one. This needs a break of range – and hopefully the upside otherwise it’ll be classed as a straggler. Otherwise, the other three pairs are still looking Dollar Bullish. The Aussie should turn lower today also.

Meanwhile, back in the land of crosses, it’s beginning to be hit by the bearish influence of EURUSD. It may have a respite over today – but not all day. We just have to watch both intrinsic pairs to judge when this will drop.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, May 16, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7448


UP A BIT, DOWN A BIT…

It’s never easy when you’re faced with a shallow Wave (ii) – you know, something like 14.6%. Even I was a little concerned but frankly the structure just couldn’t absorb a break above 1.3617 in GBPUSD. So, the Dollar has taken a jolly jaunt to the upside. Most likely we’ll see a pullback lower over the Asian session and into the European, but at some point we’ll need the Dollar to do what it did yesterday… Perhaps the risk may be a complex consolidation that will keep us moving sideways. 

USDJPY hasn’t completed the current rally from the 109.15 low but doesn’t have much more to go before lurching back lower – may be even an expanded flat. 

EURUSD saw some decent losses – but just in the lower degree – and that could see a deeper pullback. That should see USDCHF complete a triple three. Once that’s done and dusted we can get back to the Dollar upside. GBPUSD could follow the same route but the upside has a shallower cap so take care.

Equally, the Aussie has done one of its sharp losses that now requires a pullback before getting back to below yesterday’s low. 

As for the Cross – EURJPY – I suspect a rather limited range for the most part…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, May 14, 2018

A MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH DAY

Last week was a rather strange one. We saw USDCHF make a new high by 0.00002, perhaps just because it wanted to see the sky and then spent two days moving back lower. USDJPY spent a sleepy week where it couldn’t make up its mind on which way to go. It still has some question marks as to the next move – it has several options. EURUSD didn’t seem to want to move lower on Friday with the additional move higher just because it wanted to. However, it MUST make the outcome I mentioned on Thursday. 

However, already, GBPUSD has taken a drastic step to form a Wave (ii) of just 14.9%... Will it make a stronger decline? At this point, with the other pairs flapping around like wet kippers, I suspect a rather limited range for the moment to give time to the other pairs to follow suit. 

The Aussie – ah, I made a slight error but one that isn’t too extreme. Most likely it’ll take the same path as EURUSD except they have different structures. 

With USDJPY appearing to have imbibed a rather alcoholic substance, it will likely be a sideways t lower day while EURUSD moving lower the outcome in EURJPY appears to be bearish…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey