Monday, November 19, 2018

LIMITED DOLLAR DOWNSIDE FOR A REVERSAL

I haven’t quite caught some of the pairs. However, over today and through the week, we should – at last – see the Dollar finally gets to see a stronger move higher. This should see a quite (as usual) Asian session and followed by a final Dollar low to then – probably towards the European (perhaps early North American session) to revert back to the Dollar upside. 

I can’t see a runaway move because we’re back to having to develop Dollar bullish foundation waves. So today doesn’t look like a “wham bang thank you mam” day but a rather whippy/swing type development. Once we get through those foundation waves we are more likely to see a stronger Dollar. 

USDJPY may have seen the low – having seen an expanded flat – but may have a final dip lower before rallying back higher. There’s hardly much room on the topside in EURUSD and this could be the same with USDCHF – having seen a sharper decline than I had expected. 

GBPUSD has seen a pullback higher. It has a little more room to explore but over the day we should begin to see losses – while over the other side of the planet AUDUSD needs a pullback and a new high before losses. 

It’s only EURJPY that’s a little tricky – but frankly, I tend to feel that it could see a possible triangle before losses resume.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  



FRACTAL FORECASTING – A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO FORECASTING



Friday, November 16, 2018

FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

It wasn’t quite the way I wanted yesterday. The very best pairs were in GBPUSD and EURJPY. Otherwise, it seems as if we had a little more development to be seen in the rest of the pairs but after the highs in EURUSD and a minor new low in USDCHF (that I had warned could happen) it looks like now that we have all the 4-majors looking towards a consensus in a Dollar bullish development. Even then, due to EURUSD making a new high, this tends to suggest bearish foundation waves – and for GBPUSD to extend losses again today.

After having completely screwed up the bullish move in USDJPY, I had to work hard to establish the bullish move and that should also see USDCHF make further gains. I suspect this will form the foundation waves for some decent Dollar gains. 

AUDUSD is now looking for losses. EURJPY should see losses resume…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, November 15, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD AND EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3074



TARGET MET AT 1.1348








WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT DOLLAR GAINS TODAY

With the Brexit cabinet approval all sorted out - and a rather ragged triple three in GBPUSD – we should now be looking for the Dollar to resume its move higher. USDCHF provided a second zigzag lower, USDJPY saw a deep pullback that needed a minor adjustment – also in EURUSD. As far as I can see, all of the 4 majors should now have a quorum for the Dollar to push higher. 

Even the Aussie has completed a triple three and this will prompt a 5-wave decline at to form a Wave [i] from where a pullback should be seen. This looks very similar to USDJPY… At the same time, GBPUSD may well form the bearish foundation waves. 

In EURJPY I suspect a rather ragged decline with EURUSD likely to see deeper losses while USDJPY creeps higher – or perhaps sees a consolidation. Overall, in the larger picture, it still suggests losses. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, November 14, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 113.58




LOOKS LIKE WE’LL GET BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE…

Well, that was (not) a fun day. I knew somehow that something wasn’t quite right – and it actually was a strange day. We should allow for a slightly deeper pullback lower in the Dollar initially but overall, through the day, we’re going to revert back to seeing Dollar gains. Indeed, as I am writing this we are approaching some pretty high pullbacks so it won’t take long to reverse back to the Dollar upside. Even AUDUSD has been marking a triple three pullback and is on the verge – maybe has seen the final high perhaps – so the Dollar should hold firm. 

Therefore, we shall still need care, initially to develop the bullish foundation waves but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal back to the most recent Dollar highs.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, November 13, 2018

MINOR FOLLOW-THROUGH AND PULLBACK – PERHAPS RANGE TRADING

The Dollar provided the push higher for the most part and we should see those highs early in the Asian centre. EURUSD should soon see the (cyan) Wave -a- for a pullback – equally USDCHF also. GBPUSD saw some decent losses – but equally quite a deep pullback in the Wave iv. This tends to suggest the potential for a minor new low to form the (cyan) Wave -a-/-iii- and a pullback in Wave -b-/-iii-. I had expected a stronger rally in USDJPY but instead decided that it wanted to form an expanded flat - although it hasn’t yet completed. 

This tends to suggest that we should be looking to take short-term profits over today and maybe into tomorrow. 

Even EURJPY is approaching a (purple) Wave -a-/-iii- so that basically should see a pullback and once USDJPY has completed the expanded flat it should rally to the targets I had expected yesterday. That should provide a decent pullback in the cross.

As for AUDUSD… well, it failed to reach above 0.7314 but finally decided that it would just go and break below the Wave iv… So we should have seen the high… 

Overall, take care today. It suggests a ragged development…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, November 12, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 128.72 



WE SHOULD SEE FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS TODAY

For the most part, I am looking for the Dollar to remain bullish. The more important issue is whether the start of the day could see a bearish pullback. I suspect not in USDJPY - but USDCHF does seem to have potential pullbacks before the Dollar begins to bloom. EURUSD needs to see losses. I also find that GBPUSD developed a Wave -i- at the end of Friday and minor pullback. That we’re talking about the normal Asian preference for a limited range, it makes sense that we should wait for a pullback. However, the alternative is a break lower…

It’s just USDJPY that appears to have a risk of direct gains – but perhaps it could just see an initial spindly range… 

When looking at a Wave -a-/-iii- in EURUSD that has hardly managed to make any gains at the end of Friday, along with a possible consolidation – or just further gains – it makes sense that EURJPY should see a pullback higher right from the start. Once we move into the European session – perhaps North America also - I suspect we’ll begin to see some Dollar gains.

…And what about the Aussie? We still haven’t completed the expanded flat – and even then we saw a pullback. This may have been just a long and ragged Wave v that still needs to reach above 0.7316…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, November 9, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3085-90






EARLY PULLBACK AND LATER FOLLOW-THROUGH

We appear to have a quorum in terms of the majors having completed the Dollar losses for now. As we set forth into the Asian centre, it looks like we have a minor consolidation – as normal – but this will be a time to allow some pairs to generate a Dollar pullback while others need a new high and then a reversal. Once we have gotten through to the European session, we’re more likely to see the Dollar raise its hand to push the Dollar higher. 

Indeed, yesterday saw the reversal through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds to the Dollar bullish side. Perhaps we may see a pullback back to the Cloud (Dollar) lows before heading back higher. 

EURJPY is rather difficult but we should see a dip lower and a pullback. We may even have to suffer a consolidation with USDJPY expecting gains overall and, of course, a bearish EURUSD… Therefore, take care in the decline.

The Aussie… ohhhh… the Aussie. All it had to do was tip above the 0.7314 high but it stalled 13 pips below and completed an expanded flat. Therefore, we should see the high today – and just in time for when the majors have completed their consolidation…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, November 7, 2018

MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 129.90



BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Yesterday was a rather limp and basically negative day. EURUSD and USDCHF saw slow, lacklustre and tedious day – and conformed to yesterday’s headline that suggested complications. However, I think today will be a more constructive day and now looking for the Dollar to rise once more. GBPUSD has either seen its high – or will only need a marginal new high. USDCHF formed a Wave i and Wave ii, while EURUSD formed a simple zigzag. Thus we should begin to see some decent moves to the Dollar upside. 

In the meantime, USDJPY confirmed the upside also and has formed a decent rally. It may see a slightly deeper pullback but overall it should see steady gains once again. With USDJPY pushing higher along with EURUSD, it is approaching a barrier in EURJPY. This tends to suggest that EURUSD will generate some solid losses.

The past two days have seen a slow, gentle pullback higher but it’s now time for losses… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, November 6, 2018

STILL SOME COMPLICATIONS

The good news is that EURUSD has formed the bearish foundation waves. The bad news is that GBPUSD opted to form a triple three. However, we may have just seen the final high – but could be just a bit higher. This will suit USDCHF as it should be heading higher and – after a long sideways move – I suspect we’ll finally break above the 113.39 high…

Therefore, over the day we should be looking for a Dollar bullish rally. 

Having said that, GBPUSD – having been a pain in the backside – it will then need to develop the bearish foundation waves before any stronger decline. How this balances through the pairs is rather difficult to judge the correlation through the structures. 

I’m slightly uncertain on EURJPY having seen a (potential) double top. We may just see losses – or alternatively a new higher for a reversal lower. Note that USDJPY must break above 113.39 to provide the “oomph” to generate gains while EURUSD should – at some point – turn lower…

I’m still looking for AUDUSD to move lower – and I’d like to see a break below 0.7181 to confirm…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, November 5, 2018

STILL FORMING THE BULLISH FOUNDATION WAVES

I wasn’t too happy with the additional Dollar losses on Friday but it didn’t last too long. Once we had completed that blip I got my own way. Still, these foundation waves are likely to be quite bulky so we’re going to have to be patient for the meantime. In these stages, there should be short-term opportunities for taking limited trades. I also suspect we’ll see the early stages after open will provide a pullback lower in the Dollar. It shouldn’t last too long (unless it turns into a complex correction) but once we have gotten through that stage we’ll be back on the Dollar bullish side.

In USDJPY, I suddenly had an epiphany. There appears to have been a triangle in the final losses to 111.38 that then confirmed a triple three. This should then conform to the Dollar bullish outcome. 

I had to work through the Aussie from the end of September due to the sudden rush higher. It appears that, instead of an impulsive wave, we are either seeing an expanded flat but I suspect that, more likely an irregular triangle. It could even be a descending triangle… I suspect that due to the expectation of Dollar gains.

As for the cross – EURJPY – I suspect a final rally before it finally reverses lower. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, November 2, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3036



A REVERSAL TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

Well, that was pretty quick… I had expected that we’d see the Dollar lows on Monday. EURUSD and AUDUSD have both completed their respective expanded flats – although the Aussie developed in a super rally – but it’s done and dusted now. USDCHF was very blasé on the pullback but then it didn’t really need to see a deep correction. Equally, GBPUSD has managed a double zigzag and this should be the final high although it has the potential for a triple three. However, I very much doubt this.

So… what about USDJPY? While EURUSD and GBPUSD were playing with swings and roundabouts USDJPY appeared to be on a holiday (but not for me.) I’ve tried to see if there is any chance of a break above the 113.39 but I just cannot see any chance of that break because of the double zigzag lower and I can’t see any alternative but losses… 

This tends to suggest we are going to see a rather slow end of the week, probably due to foundation waves that need to be built. 

As for EURJPY, we have seen a double zigzag and with USDJPY looking lower along with EURUSD, it tends to suggest a bearish day for the cross… 

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, November 1, 2018

MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 1.0097 YESTERDAY





A BIT OF WEIRDNESS GOING ON…

To be honest, perhaps I should clarify the headline. There are some pairs that are beginning to do strange things – in particular in AUDUSD and – to an extent in EURUSD and EURJPY is always rather trying.

Let’s start with USDJPY that completed the expanded flat – almost testing the Wave -x- high. This should now see a final zigzag lower. That’s the kinda easy one although we’ll obviously have to navigate the development. USDCHF saw a pretty firm follow-through to form the (green) Wave (a). So both of these pairs should see losses.

Then came the divorce. EURUSD dropped below 1.1335 while GBPUSD spurned the EU and rallied. Actually, this is pretty clever. The losses in EURUSD were corrective – therefore the low of an expanded flat. That will then see a 5-wave rally. At the same time, GBPUSD needs a deeper pullback to keep the balance of the ratios. Once EURUSD tops out we’ll be back on the Dollar bullish road – but clearly, this isn’t going to happen all today.

EURJPY has become dizzy, rather like a toddler trying to write. However, I suspect that it may see lower before a further pullback but this is a rather difficult development.

The drunken Aussie… it makes gains then decides it wants to dip back lower, then back up again – and down… This is very close to being a possible descending triangle but the level that needs to break is in the report. However, at this point, there still remains the potential for an expanded flat… Take care…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, October 31, 2018

DOLLAR HIGHS BEING HIT

In fact, I realised that I made a mistake early on after the 1.1816 in EURUSD and that the 1.1335 low was the final low… Hence, I was rather cautious yesterday because we were seeing a corrective development. We have seen USDJPY complete the expanded flat. I would like one more blip higher in USDCHF – but a limited follow-through for a reversal to the downside and that’s the same thought for GBPUSD. By the time I have written the report, we should have seen all 4 majors completing their respective development. 

So we really know what’s going to happen – a correction lower in the Dollar… I suspect this will be a modest correction rather than deep. We also have a pair – USDJPY that has a limited downside that could provide the clues for the other pairs. So far, EURUSD has formed a 5-wave move and the correction lower. This should also spur the creepy crawly EURJPY to generate a rather ragged bullish development – perhaps the potential for an expanded flat at this stage. 

That AUDUSD has been slowly edging higher – contrary to the other pairs – has been quite exceptional but this is also in an expanded flat so now we should now have all $$ pairs back in line together…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 30, 2018

A SLOW END TO THE DOLLAR GAINS

I had high hopes that we could have seen some constructive development yesterday. Actually, in some pairs, they’re doing quite well. The real bugbear is EURUSD. It has started on the downside but appears to have a risk of a complex correction. However, perhaps it’s not such an issue because USDJPY appears to have the same issue. USDCHF appears to have formed the lower degree Wave iv and Wave a/v and thus we need a pullback lower and then further gains. That GBPUSD has completed a Wave -a-/-v-, it suggests pullback higher. Once the pullback has been seen the downside does have potential for some further losses.

However, just for this session, I suspect we are going to see a rather ragged development – mostly consolidation – and likely a rather slow and difficult day…

That leaves EURJPY that has seen a 3-wave pullback – which tends to have a risk of a consolidation. It doesn’t generate great confidence in establishing targets…

Perhaps the only pair that could complete a move – or part of – is AUDUSD that needs further gains today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 29, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2777






TIME FOR A REVERSAL?

It certainly has a chance of seeing a reversal back to the Dollar downside today – maybe into tomorrow. Looking at the low in USDJPY appears to suggest gains while the expectation of EURUSD pushing for losses and for USDCHF for a final high. At the same time, GBPUSD should follow the same template as EURUSD. 

It’s all about swings and roundabouts. 

With USDJPY rally and EURUSD declining, there doesn’t seem to be much of a range in EURJPY. It has certainly found a low and on Friday’s reversal a 5-wave rally. Considering that we’re going to see these two pairs forming a potential complex correction in EURJPY – perhaps a triangle, flat or expanded flat as far as I can see.

While the majors appear to be pretty set to see these swings, the Aussie seems to be the odd man out. As far as I can see, it looks like it needs some swings, initially lower, but overall it looks like an expanded flat should develop…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 26, 2018

STILL DOLLAR LIMITED GAINS

The Dollar bullishness has certainly slowed down and I’m expecting to see limited bullish swings but I don’t think it’s going to find its high today. Most likely I suspect that Monday or Tuesday will trigger a pullback. 

I am finding all this rather strange though. While EURUSD and GBPUSD are basically generally correlated at the moment – and these two pairs are the ones that shall see limited Dollar bullish swings – USDJPY and USDCHF appear to be looking at a stronger Dollar bullish move. Perhaps I’ve made an error somewhere – at least in USDCHF. I’ve been trying to find an alternative outlook but let’s just say that I’m not too confident of a bullish Dollar seeing rampant gains. However, USDJPY appears to be bullish. Still, take care.

The Aussie is still set for losses – although there is still an alternative because it formed a double zigzag and we haven’t broken below the first Wave x. As for EURJPY, we should see a limited follow-through to a new low and followed by a pullback. 

Take care. There is a chance of some complications as we move to the final Dollar highs. Don’t expect too much of a trend as we approach the final Dollar highs.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 25, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1379






STILL DOLLAR GAINS – BUT MORE LIMITED

As expected, we have seen some decent Dollar gains but we haven’t yet completed the rally just yet. It’s coming soon – maybe tomorrow but could edge into next week. Equally, with USDJPY having formed a Wave -i- at 112.76 we have suffered a deep Wave -ii-. At the same time – although more a stubby pullback in USDCHF, we should now see gains in both pairs. The final pair in the 4-majors, GBPUSD has seen some decent losses but still needs further follow-through.

Having said all that, these moves now should see greater swings as we approach the next support that should see a deeper pullback. 

Even the Aussie has followed the Dollar higher and it has some way to reach the (cyan) Wave [iii]. Once that has been seen it will need the Wave [iv] and Wave [v]. Once it has done that it will reach a larger degree Wave -iii-. 

Finally, EURJPY has also been seeing some decent losses and should soon see a low for a limited pullback to then see the Wave [c]/[i] that will then need a deeper pullback.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, October 24, 2018

NOT QUITE AS EXPECTED BUT THE DOLLAR STILL NEEDS GAINS

The lower degree development is always tricky. Over the past week, we have seen the lower degree waves – that should really be down below in the sub-1-minute development – providing the correct development. I have gone down to that level on occasions but it would just take up so much time that the development would take over an hour (or more) for just one currency pair. 

Nevertheless, we’re still on the Dollar bullish route but with stronger swings than I would have liked. I also suspect this will continue to develop through today and perhaps through the rest of the week. 

USDJPY suffered a deep pullback in an expanded flat – so we should be looking back to where we have been – and this time for a stronger bullish move. Equally, EURUSD continues to create whippy swings – but still with an underlying bullish outcome. USDCHF has been a pain in the backside and that required an alternative development although I’m still not exactly confident of the development – but should be bullish.

GBPUSD saw a modestly deep pullback – and that will equally see follow-through lower today. The Aussie appears to be bearish but I’m still wary until the 0.7042-44 lows – which is tough because it’s the low… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 23, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1551





THE DOLLAR STILL NEEDS GAINS

The start of the week was a rather complicated one. I knew we needed initial losses – in USDJPY we saw a miraculous expanded flat in the Wave ii that had only a 3-pip range to target. The other development was the potential for swings in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The latter could have seen a deeper follow-through higher but once EURUSD reached a pretty deep pullback, both pairs just decided to revert to the downside. 

So, while there is risk of a limited pullback – Asia will likely see a rather shallow range – overall this should see the Dollar following through on the upside. Both USDJPY and USDCHF should see gains. 

While AUDUSD can be rather independent, we have seen a bullish double zigzag but the Wave -x- is still some way lower. Until that Wave -x- breaks lower we have to still be aware of the risk of a triple three. Therefore, take care. 

EURJPY had a bullish day, courtesy of both EURUSD (initially) and USDJPY providing a swing lower and later higher. While EURUSD could see a minor pullback for losses to resume, while USDJPY should likely see gains. The risk could be a consolidation…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 22, 2018

RISK OF SWINGS

The follow-through … didn’t. Basically, this implies that the structure is being elongated within a lower degree development that causes deeper pullbacks before follow-through can develop. In effect, it’s a deep Wave b/iii outlook but in this case, I suspect we shall see a pullback and a second rally to form the Wave b/iii in EURUSD and GBPUSD. 

Equally, there may be the potential for a similar situation in USDCHF and USDJPY but in a slightly different way – that there is a risk of an expanded flat in USDCHF while USDJPY could complete a Wave c/I for a pullback. This tends to suggest a rather slow start to the week. 

Additionally, Friday’s deep wave b/v outlook should now allow the Aussie to complete a triple three.

As for the cross, EURJPY seems to suggest a pullback and later follow-through.

Of course, note the Dollar high extremes that would break the outlook suggested above.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 19, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD AND EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 1.3016



TARGET MET AT 128.32






STILL MORE FOLLOW-THROUGH

We’ve seen some broad swings on the way up in the Dollar. The development is rather difficult within the lower degree price formations and that really makes life quite tough. I wouldn’t be surprised that we shall likely see the same type of swings today. It looks like GBPUSD will soon complete the (cyan) Wave -a- for a correction. 

Most likely USDJPY will be bullish today along with USDCHF while EURUSD will make further losses. Having written that, it is also likely to see a minor pullback before those stronger losses. Most likely the Asian session will provide a limited range but which should provide the reversal back to the Dollar bullish side. 

AUDUSD caught me out. Instead of a single zigzag higher, we have seen a double zigzag. I can’t rule out a final zigzag to complete the triple three – but best wait to confirm. Overall, this should basically turn lower pretty soon to extend losses.

Finally, we should soon see a low in EURJPY. We still have bearish momentum but with a bullish USDJPY and a bearish EURUSD we are likely to see some slow development.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, October 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR USDCHF AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.9939


TARGET MET AT 1.3085



WE SHOULD SEE FOLLOW-THROUGH FROM YESTERDAY

Apart from AUDUSD, we basically saw some decent gains in the Dollar – and there’s more to go. Of course, we are likely to see pullbacks at times but the underlying outlook does remain Dollar bullish. It was rather strange in USDJPY that stalled 1 pip below the break level but over the day it was easily broken and this has seen all the 4-majors back on the Dollar upside. 

Strangely, the pullback in AUDUSD reached a 58.6% retracement at 0.7105. Just as USDJPY delayed pushing higher we have either a final rally – or the break below the 58.6% pullback… Therefore, take care.

Overall, if there is any Dollar pullback in the Asian session, it’ll be limited.

For the cross, EURJPY has seen losses as expected and there’s more to go…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, October 17, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 130.30




STILL A RATHER MIXED OUTLOOK

I found yesterday rather strange. Both USDJPY and USDCHF managed to build a rally – which was expected – but GBPUSD and EURUSD also built a rally. I had allowed for strength in GBPUSD but EURUSD was a surprise when it moved above 1.1612… I’m actually now looking for all 4-majors to reverse lower. It’s a rather “what’s the flip” moment. 

The good thing about the rallies in USDJPY and EURUSD was that it provided the opportunity to see a pullback higher in EURJPY to form the Wave -b-/-v- so the risk appears to now be the opposite with EURUSD and USDJPY expected to see losses…

What a strange market…

Meanwhile, down-under, the Aussie weaved its wonky up and down rally and still hasn’t reached its high… Hopefully, it will manage to make the final ascent to the peak today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, October 16, 2018

MOSTLY A DOLLAR RALLY

When I suggested a Dollar rally, it tends to refer to EURUSD, GBPUSD (but with care) and USDCHF. The other majors – USDJPY and AUDUSD appear to be exactly the opposite. That EURUSD has 5 points above Friday’s 1.1612 high, I cannot see any move higher. That GBPUSD has a 40-point gap to the 1.3258 high I can’t rule out a break above 1.3183 but I’d much prefer a more bearish outlook. That will need some care as the Asian session develops.

USDCHF – if I have my structure is correct, yesterday’s 0.9847 low was a pretty deep pullback. It has only 15 points on the downside to break the structure. If that break level is broken then I shall have to work through the rally from the 0.9542 low. However, I suspect it will be a limited pullback.

USDJPY needs some losses before a reversal back higher…

The Aussie has been moving in a drunken development with pretty difficult swings to navigate but as far as I can see it should be a bullish day. 

As for EURJPY, it has been a rather rough sideways move and I suspect a rally and then a reversal to a new low. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, October 15, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3258



CAUTIOUS START – LATER DOLLAR TO RALLY

On Friday, we finally saw the Dollar lows. Long live the Dollar. Well, obviously we shall see pullbacks on the way down and in any case, we are really only in the early stages of the gains. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD provided some decent losses. On the open we’re more likely to see a limited pullback before losses continue. I also suspect that USDJPY and USDCHF may see minor pullbacks and then for a stronger rally once again – and most likely USDJPY may well see quite a decent rally. As long as it does, then we could see a move higher in EURJPY. However, it’s a rather tricky development and I remain rather cautious in this pair.

As for the Aussie, it all depends on the first reaction. Ideally, I’d like to see a pullback to the 0.7090-95 area and from there we can expect gains to the 0.7163-75 area. Any break below 0.7090 would likely see deeper losses.

Therefore, look for the initial pullbacks soon after open but later we should be focusing on the Dollar upside.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, October 12, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR USDCHF AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.9856



TARGET MET AT 1.3248






APART FROM GBPUSD WE SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE DOLLAR LOWS

Across the pairs, we have had a range of reactions. For the most part in the 4 majors we have seen USDJPY, USDCHF and most likely EURUSD, completed the Dollar lows. I’m still a little wary of a new high but it’s basically going to see losses. Therefore, we have only GBPUSD that needs a minor push higher before it turns back lower. What has been quite interesting is the range of development through the three markets. USDCHF has seen quite a solid rally while USDJPY has only managed a mini-minor initial push higher from the 111.83 low. Equally, EURUSD should have seen its high but I’d suggest allowing for a minor new high. 

Once we get past the EURUSD/GBPUSD highs we should begin to see a decent reversal lower. Of course, we’re going to need to work through the initial (Dollar) bullish foundation waves before any real solid gains. 

The Aussie should still see a follow-through higher to complete the bullish zigzag. Once that has been seen then we’ll have a quorum in terms of Dollar direction.

On a note in EURJPY, the recent lows have been rather rough in terms of ratios – or lack of good ratios. I’m rather wary about this but frankly, we should be seeing a consolidation – of sorts – with USDJPY expected to push higher and EURUSD lower. I’d still suggest waiting to break out of this rather difficult structure.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey