Friday, November 17, 2017

Is the market hibernating?

Certainly the winter has come earlier than normal here in Tokyo…

I didn’t have any thoughts of a strong move yesterday but I have to say that it managed to fall even flatter than I had expected. Quite frankly, while I am obviously expecting movement, I’m not expecting a roaring end to the week. Indeed, I see limited moves again today. If there are any pairs that could manage to see a follow-through then it’s USDJPY and a bit in Cable. Well, the Aussie can make a dip but not too far.

However, I have spotted a slight issue. It may not be critical – or it may be… Yesterday’s pullback stalled 0.006 higher than the Wave -ii- to form an expanded flat. However, I also noted that the 112.47 low saw an 87% projection in the original Wave -v-. It’s unusual but could be ok – but then the 112.47 low was a valid Wave -iii- projection. Thus the pullback may be the Wave -iv- (113.32) and therefore there may be a risk of a new low…

EURUSD is still uncertain and I also noted an alternative that could allow one more rally. This is quite frustrating but it’s still worth taking care. I also note that USDCHF is coming towards a Wave v so that the risk may be for a reversal lower.

So, there are still some potential tricky elements today – take care.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

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