Thursday, November 30, 2017

Good chance for Dollar gains today

I was in shock when I saw the highs in USDJPY. The strength was far beyond the expanded flat area and this has given me a new outlook on a 50% Wave (c). Previously, I have observed the limit to be 66.7% - maybe 58.6% in the crosses – but now I have witnessed a 50%...

Thus, for now, USDJPY, USDCHF and EURUSD have turned to the Dollar upside and I suspect we shall see GBPUSD manage that final leg higher to then turn lower…

Therefore, I can only see limited (Dollar) downside as today begins and once GBPUSD has managed its final high, we should have a quorum across the 4-Majors and AUDUSD that has been championing the Dollar upside for some while.

That should be the main theme today and I hope that the rather spider-like development changes into a more direct and simpler rally.

That tends to suggest that EURJPY will tend to be a little more choppy but soon revert to the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Today’s analysis should be considered as a wealth warning

Ok, the headline is dramatic but so much of yesterday’s development looked more like a 14-month old child’s scribbling. The number of data points to consider were just too much that, if I had to go through every point, I’d still be working at it through the coming week. Therefore, do take care.

What’s more, the losses in EURUSD have been deep enough to confirm the 1.1961 high was the final high in that rally. It could be THE high but we’ve only seen a double zigzag, rather like GBPUSD. Indeed, the Pound has seen a new high above 1.3382. Even then, there’s a chance of an expanded flat before the deeper rally.

As for USDCHF, well… let’s talk about the 14-month’s twin that has more imagination in terms of trying to hide exactly what’s going on.

In USDJPY, as I described yesterday, we need a 5-wave rally and then a reversal. Even the structures in that rally have been copied from the 14-month old twins. Perhaps this may be the easier outcome because we have a limit on the upside above 111.68 – so watch for the bearish reversal indications. This may be when the final legs lower in the Dollar can be seen.

The Aussie, blissfully unaware of the 14-month old twins, should maintain the downside but we all know that this pair can take a break and wander off into the outback for a while…

However, I suspect a pullback in EURJPY today but even then, being in a corrective phase, with the complications we have already it will be best to take care…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, November 27, 2017


Target reached at 1.3359.


Looks like a messy day

The Dollar made further losses on Friday – a break above 1.1860 EURUSD – to extend gains and this was not the final high. Indeed, USDCHF still needs losses and GBPUSD also. USDJPY is a little vague.

Overall, we’re looking at some choppy ups and downs so there doesn’t really seem to be too much expectation for trending moves today. Indeed, I suspect this will take us a day or three to get through the rest of their respective developments so it tends to suggest short-term trades and taking profits when seen.

The Aussie may have seen its final corrective high – I feel we have seen a triple three in this correction. Any initial losses will likely form the bearish foundation waves – so like the majors it seems that we shall have limited moves just for now before the downside can resume.

As for EURJPY, we need a pullback and then further gains.

So, take care over today. Hopefully, we’ll be able to get through enough to get closer to the Dollar bullish reversal…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Is it Christmas already?

I only say that because the market really appears to not want to trade. Well, perhaps we can include Thanksgiving into the picture also. Gosh, the development has been so sluggish for some while now that the lower degree waves are finding even lower wave degrees to build up into the “normal” lower degree waves. I have been finding myself dropping into the tick-bar charts to make any sense and in the process the analysis is getting more and more complicated with complicated corrections.

Basically, we should continue with the sideways to Dollar bullish outlook. Take care when a structure begins to turn in on itself that could be the trigger for a haemorrhage that will extend any complex corrections.

Note that USDJPY still appears to need further losses initially – along with EURUSD - and that will likely pull down EURJPY. The Aussie is now in a bullish correction but even that pair can be pretty slow and even generate corrective patterns.

So, not an easy day. Probably EURUSD and USDJPY appear more likely to generate a limited follow-through and this mean taking profits when seen…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Friday, November 17, 2017

Is the market hibernating?

Certainly the winter has come earlier than normal here in Tokyo…

I didn’t have any thoughts of a strong move yesterday but I have to say that it managed to fall even flatter than I had expected. Quite frankly, while I am obviously expecting movement, I’m not expecting a roaring end to the week. Indeed, I see limited moves again today. If there are any pairs that could manage to see a follow-through then it’s USDJPY and a bit in Cable. Well, the Aussie can make a dip but not too far.

However, I have spotted a slight issue. It may not be critical – or it may be… Yesterday’s pullback stalled 0.006 higher than the Wave -ii- to form an expanded flat. However, I also noted that the 112.47 low saw an 87% projection in the original Wave -v-. It’s unusual but could be ok – but then the 112.47 low was a valid Wave -iii- projection. Thus the pullback may be the Wave -iv- (113.32) and therefore there may be a risk of a new low…

EURUSD is still uncertain and I also noted an alternative that could allow one more rally. This is quite frustrating but it’s still worth taking care. I also note that USDCHF is coming towards a Wave v so that the risk may be for a reversal lower.

So, there are still some potential tricky elements today – take care.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey