Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Role reversal

That was not a good day. Indeed, so focussed on looking for EURUSD and GBPUSD to extend losses and therefore USDCHF and USDJPY to see a correction higher, I really wasn’t prepared for the opposite to happen. I tried to work out if I had made an error in both EURUSD and GBPUSD from their highs. I couldn’t find an alternative. GBPUSD broke above the descending channel but in terms of ratios, the bearish structure still appears to be intact. As for EURUSD… well, it’s a tight one. There is even the potential for a minor new high above 1.1832 in an unusual 41.4% expanded flat.

That both USDJPY and USDCHF saw losses in 5-waves basically implies a pullback higher and that tends to corroborate the potential for EURUSD and GBPUSD to extend losses.

So that’s the basic outlook for the 4-majors but even the Aussie decided to forget the downside and broke above key levels. It, too, needs a correction lower.

As for EURJPY… oh my goodness, what a mess. It’s almost like a baby having thrown its food on the floor, wiping sticky parts all around his tray and filling his nappy at the same time. Stay away for a while until there begins to be a more stable development.

So while yesterday’s Dollar bullish outlook was a complete wipe-out, it should happen today.

I hope.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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