Thursday, September 28, 2017

Limited development today – expect swings

Oh, that was a bad day… It seems I had the pulse of the market just one swing off. I have a feeling that we’re not going to see any strong moves today and more likely a follow-through and reversal. I see this in EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF – perhaps even EURJPY and AUDUSD. That just leaves USDJPY as the odd one out I think.

I’ve been harking on about USDCHF and the impact that I feel it will imply. The mistake I made in this pair was, instead of a deeper pullback, we saw a stronger follow-through and then a deeper than normal Wave iv. Such was the balance within the structure. From here USDCHF needs a 3-wave move. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD need a 5-wave decline.

Once the follow-through has been seen, we should see the first reversal targets. It could be just a limited pullback but sometimes they are pretty aggressive. However, at this point we cannot judge.

EURJPY should require one more drop – probably driven by a combination of EURUSD and USDJPY before a reversal.

…And what about the Aussie? We’re seeing an hourly bullish divergence but no 4-hour divergence. It’s always a coin toss, but given the general expectation I’ve described above for most of the majors, there could still be a new corrective low – but holding above 0.7807.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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