Tuesday, August 8, 2017

That was a creepy crawly day…

I had hoped for more out of yesterday. Out of all the six currencies, it was just GBPUSD that managed to break out of range while EURUSD recovered more deeply than expected. As for the other four pairs there was a big yawn and an early night.

Somehow we need to get out of this glorified mess – but the outlook does appear to be rather ragged. Even if the strongest Dollar pair in USDCHF is running into a few barriers on the upside, limited losses in GBPUSD – but that’s only after a deeper pullback from yesterday’s low. Equally, USDJPY that started the day positively, only managed a feeble, half hacked rally but really doesn’t seem to have used a navigation system.

Perhaps the most difficult pair to judge is EURUSD, having broken above 1.1802. I went through a variety of possible structures that may have worked – but the only one I could find is that it formed a triple three correction. Even then, the structures were all very timid and vague so I don’t have a lot of confidence…

As for EURJPY, its core buddy – EURUSD – was instrumental in a recovery but it seems to be close to an extreme. Maybe EURUSD can be instrumental on the downside today… because it sure looks like the Cross needs to move back lower.

As for AUDUSD… well, “give us a beer” and that’ll do. It still has not provided any strong signal for a move higher yet. It still needs that but I still can’t rule out a minor new corrective low to then start anew on a rally.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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