Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Seems like another limited range day

The high at 1.1828 EURUSD was meant to be a Wave -iii- … but it wasn’t. It could have been but the decline from that high was too firm. This, as I mentioned in the update in the European morning, implies continued consolidation over today. These types of consolidation can cause some raucous and noisy moves – this being a consolidation within a larger consolidation so we’re going to need to be cautious until a more defined structure has been completed.

We have seen a high in USDJPY. Hence today should be bearish – or perhaps half of the day. This has great importance for EURJPY. It has the potential to complete a triple three but will need to break above 129.18 before reversing back to the downside. I can’t see USDJPY driving it higher but maybe EURUSD could. However, it’s touch and go. With the Cross having completed a double zigzag there may be no need for a triple three. Thus, we’re going to have to react appropriately and that means best waiting until one of the outcomes develop.

USDCHF has surprised me by not breaking below 0.9582 and appears to have completed bullish wave. So, rather like USDJPY, we should see a pullback lower. Thus, perhaps this does suggest that EURUSD could see a deeper pullback before losses…

I was in two minds in GBPUSD yesterday. There were two options. Once the supports broke the outcome was made clear to see losses down to 1.2810. This should also, therefore, require a pullback higher.

Finally, the Aussie… another pair that is touch and go. In the end, it appears to be a triangle but don’t keep a fixed outlook. This is a structure that can morph quite easily. It will still be best to see whether the triangle develops – and if so, then great. However, if the triangle limits break we could have a different outcome – and I suspect, in that case, it will likely be bullish.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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