Sunday, August 13, 2017


Harmonic Elliott Wave Forecasts

Harmonic Elliott Wave is unlike the original version of Elliott Wave that has no means to define how a 5-wave move must develop. It relies on interpreting swing highs and swing lows only. There is no way of knowing in advance where a wave will end. Wave 3's can be below 100% or can be any ratio that happens to develop. There is no clear alternation in the original, while Harmonic Elliott Wave sees a relationship between Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) for the majority of occasions.

R.N. Elliott's structure includes extended waves, failed fifths and leading/ending diagonals, unlimited "stretching" of a correction in the direction of the trend. Harmonic Elliott Wave works with 3-wave moves and with a strict ratio structure. This eradicates extended waves, failed fifths, leading and ending diagonals along with the "stretching" of corrections.

Harmonic Elliott Wave has a single, uniform structure for a 5-wave move and handles all the crazy add-ons that make traditional Elliott Wave almost impossible to generate exact and precise targets. Harmonic Elliott Wave can generate pinpoint projection targets.

This generates a truly fractal development in which lower degree targets must match higher degree targets by stringently applying the ratio structure across all wave degrees.

Below are just a few examples of forecasts that have been made. 

                Long Term Forecasts

Dow Jones Industrial Index – July 2010

A forecast in July 2010 for the DJIA from the 9,960 area to rally to 12,600 +/- 200 points and for an approximate 20% price decline before rallying back to new highs.

The Wave (iii) target ended at 12,876 on the 3rd May 2011 and provoked a correction lower in Wave (iv) to 10,404.49 being a price drop of 19%. From the Wave (iv) price rallied to just below the 14,168 high and saw a limited correction before the rally resumed. All 5-wave sequences followed the ratio structure across the wave degrees.

Dow Jones Industrial Index – May 2013 and February 2014

This was an excerpt from the report on the 26th February which, in the long term structure comments retained the comments from the prior May – in 2013 – in which the forecast for the top of the DOW to be between the 76.4% - 85.4% projection at 17,298 – 18,574 and favoured the top of the range.

In the daily structure, I estimated the Wave -iii- of Wave (c) / (iii) to be either at the 238.2% projection at 17,356 or the 261.8% at 17,618. The Wave -iii- was seen on the 20th September 2014 at 17,350.64. 

I also estimated the Wave (iii) to be between the 298.4% - 323.6% projection at 17,329 – 17,738. In fact, it eventually stalled on the 6th December 2014 at 17,991.19 being the 338.2% projection.

The results were almost perfect, the (navy) Wave -iii- reaching to within a 0.03% deviation of the perfect price over 7 months. The (blue) Wave (iii) exceeded the estimated 323.6% projection to reach the 338.2% projection at 18,357.18 within a 0.10% deviation of the perfect price over 10 months. 

EURUSD – September 11th 2012

This forecast was made on the 11th September 2012 in which I estimated the Wave ^E, the end of the multi-year triangle around 1.3550-1.3850 and to develop in 3-waves.

The chart above displays the entire triangle and the Wave ^E high that ended at 1.3993.

USDJPY – March 26th 2012

This forecast was made on the 26th March 2012 in which I forecast a 5-wave rally that would end around 100-101, based on cycles and first reversal targets.

This forecast was made around the time of the Wave (b) of Wave (i). This initially saw a rally in Wave (c) to complete Wave (i) and was followed by a long and deep Wave (ii). This implied a brief and shallow Wave (iv). The final high was at 103.78.

Later, following a relatively shallow correction, we saw a rally to 125.85 to satisfy the estimated 120 - 124 area.

Gold Forecast on the 27th November 2012

This forecast on the 27th November 2012 was for a deep decline to reach to between 1,138 – 1,262 area.

The chart above was provided for the Nippon Technical Analyst Society in January 2014. I indicated that the major cycle low would be around May 2015. As of today (20th May) price has moved down to a low of 1,131.51 and should now extend just a little more into June, possibly July before rallying.


Way back, before the 1.7190 high, I had already labelled the 1.3501 low as the Wave (A) and therefore I was looking to confirm the Wave (B). I wasn't even thinking about Brexit at that time but knew that the follow-through in Wave (C) would be deep. 

I first used the chart above but later managed to find data from 1935 and realised that we should not see a break below the 1985 low:

Note the perfect cycles running over 82 years...

                Medium Term Forecasts

EURUSD Forecast on the 20th November 2013

This was a forecast over a period of 1-2 months. The market was bearish EURUSD and Elliotticians were claiming that the structure was corrective.

On the 20th November 2013, I estimated the Wave [iii] would reach the 238.2% projection at 1.3684 and that the Wave [iv] would be between 14.6%-23.6%. Overall, I estimated that the rally (a Wave -a- of Wave -v-) could reach 1.3832.

Two weeks later, the Wave [iii] stalled within 7 points of the perfect 238.2% projection and corrected by 14.6% precisely. These two levels were hit over a Non Farm Payrolls release...

DOLLAR INDEX - 30th August 2016 

Following the (blue) Wave -i-, Wave -ii- and also the Wave -a- and Wave -b- there is a stronger ability to target. In this case, the outlook for the Wave -iii- was to a range of projections - the 176.4% (100.16), 198.4% (101.06) and possibly the 223.6% (102.08). 

Over 3 months the (blue) Wave -iii- stalled at 102.05, just three pips from the perfect price...

            Short Term Forecasts

GBPUSD Forecast for a final high

Here I was looking for a rally to complete the larger daily really that should enforce a reversal back to the downside.

It was a difficult count moving higher but this worked perfectly...

EURUSD Forecast for a final low

On the 9th August 2017 I had forecast a decline that should reach to reach 1.1680-01 at least.

The final low was seen at 1.1689 and has seen a reversal higher.

Ian Copsey

No comments:

Post a Comment