Friday, June 2, 2017

The muzzy puzzle of the NFP

I was happy with yesterday’s moves although I would have preferred a stronger reaction. It seems as if the lower degree waves are building up to the larger degree but in a long drawn-out process so it’s difficult to really make any firm judgement of how this will develop. That today will see the dreaded Non Farm Payroll release is another factor that I would have happily omitted but that’s the fun of this “game.” That said, with the Non Farm Payrolls there will always be a risk of a massive bout of flatulence before it all settles down.

Indeed, there are pairs that are ending a particular move, some which are starting and within the entire range of pairs it suggests a muzzy puzzle… Therefore, it tends to suggest that we shall see some volatility as normal but GBPUSD does not appear to be in the same situation as the other 3 major pairs. Actually, quite the opposite because it appears to have had a second expanded flat – the first in the (cyan) Wave -b- and then a Wave i and Wave ii - also developing in an expanded flat. Therefore, we’re going to have to react to the release at the time.

The Aussie made its break below 0.7406 and should edge lower but there’s now limited downside available so there will be a pullback higher at some time – either before or after the NFP.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






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