Monday, June 5, 2017

In the balance

The NFP didn’t quite show what I thought was going to happen but not all pairs followed EURUSD. Of note was the refusal to see a new high above 1.2915 in GBPUSD while the other 3 majors all decided to submit to Dollar losses. The alternative follow-through in EURUSD is the critical point. It rushed higher after the release – and USDJPY and USDCHF followed suit to the downside. However, this push higher in EURUSD, while breaking a little above my estimated target, it hasn’t done enough to break above the key resistance…

Of course, at the same time, USDJPY should not move below 110.23-32. USDCHF has held above 0.9605 – the extreme of the Wave -b-/-iii-. In GBPUSD the gap lower was perfect and is assisting a 5-wave move. It will need a pullback higher – perhaps when EURUSD reaches a new high – but then we should see losses resume.

So, it looks like a cautious start to the week but I’m pretty confident that we’ll eventually head back higher in the Dollar. It will still need some stronger confirmations so please do take care.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

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