Thursday, May 11, 2017

Complications abound

Barring GBPUSD the rest of the 4-majors saw a new Dollar bullish high. However, it hasn’t triggered a follow-through. There will be a level that would imply Dollar gains but until then we could just be seeing a consolidation. However, it’s GBPUSD that concerns me most because it didn’t do my bidding. It has failed to reach my target and hasn’t broken the structure. If the group of three is in a consolidation it’s very limited – but then GBPUSD needs a stronger move. It’s possible that Sterling (with its middle coming out of the new Pound coin) can see a stronger move. Indeed, it has done so over the past few days – but never reached a target. Thus, we’re waiting for various targets – or various breaks… It’s not a clear or easy outlook…

Add to that, we have EURJPY attempting to rally but with EURUSD and USDJPY expected to consolidate we have a stand-off until a stronger break of either EURUSD or USDJPY develops. To have them break in a single Dollar direction would tend to negate objective of where EURJPY will move…

So it’s all quite a fine balance and basically we’re going to have to work with breaks of a single pair that could trigger a break of range.

The Aussie has its own way of doing things – but normally that means being whacky. Overall I’m expecting losses but there’s a mild risk of a pullback above 0.7394 but then lower…

Take care today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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