Friday, May 5, 2017

Beware the Ides of NFP…

Yesterday was a day of swings but no roundabouts. It was expected - although developed much faster than I had expected. Even USDCHF made a new low – but took a route that still came to the right target area. So as we put our hand into the Non Farm Payroll black bag we’re going to have to take the hit that is delivered. Always good fun…

So now we are in the hands of the NFP outcome… What more can be said?

There is just one puzzle – and that’s in GBPUSD. It made its decline perfectly and has reversed higher but hasn’t completed what should be a 5-wave rally. I’d suggest waiting for either follow-through higher during the day … or… we could just see losses after the NFP but in a third ABC. Best wait for the extremes…

As for EURJPY, well flip and flap… It’s gone on to attempt a triple three but can this last leg move above 124.09 – that was the Wave -iv- on the 15th December. If it does, it maintains a bullish outlook. Otherwise, if I have misjudged the individual 5-wave moves then a break below 122.60 will turn it right around.

Finally, the Aussie… All was looking good – and actually was good but it has chosen to take an alternative route to the target range. How this will be affected by the NFP… we shall have to see…

Be prepared for the NFP…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  








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