Tuesday, May 16, 2017

A difficult day…

I’m somewhat upset about the past two days, both of which had me scrambling but never quite clicking with the correct development. So, the call for several days – perhaps a week – of difficulties all began to break down with the deeper gains in EURUSD and lower in USDCHF. Add to that, the gains in GBPUSD took me by surprise.

I had to look deep into the 1-minute and – on occasion – tick-bar charts to really delve into the very lower degree development. Obviously, this took come time, the Swissie being one of the most complex developments for a long time. The vast range of mini-minor moves was just a myriad of noise… I think I have resolved this and the good news is that I don’t think we’ll have a week of painful corrective structures…

Indeed, this tends to suggest Dollar gains resuming from a lower area and then for some gains. This applies to EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD… but not USDJPY. This pair is making heavy work of development and it suggests a degree of caution. This tends to suggest there could be risk of EURJPY topping basically where I had been targeting. Thus, take tender steps in USDJPY…

As for GBPUSD, it is in a middle area where we could see higher highs – or just some losses… It’ll happen at some point but it’s just the process of finally confirming the next move…

Finally, yet another shock in AUDUSD… I was truly surprised with the break above 0.7426. That implied – somehow – that the 0.7329 low final. From there we have seen a recovery. It’s deep enough although neither hourly or 30-minute momentum have given any bearish divergences. Therefore, allow for another blip higher and then watch for the decline to resume.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







No comments:

Post a Comment