Friday, March 31, 2017

Now we should see the reversal

Jeepers creepers… the Dollar rally was quite a bit stronger than expected – so much so that I have to question my structure. What’s more, there’s a certain fragility in one or more pairs. For example, there is a 0.00003 difference between what I feel is the Wave -ii- in GBPUSD and the Wave ii that followed the Wave i from the Wave -ii-. It doesn’t do much for the confidence.

Equally, EURUSD ended up with a 90% Wave v. These are pretty rare. Once again, it doesn’t do much for the confidence. Momentum is not really displaying solid reversal indications in most of the pairs – although EURUSD has a minor divergence and USDCHF has potential… but not really a solid divergence… Even USDJPY was a little flaky although has seen follow-through this morning.

However, we appear to be at limits and therefore we’ll need to confirm the range of pairs reverse but we need to still take care. We have a bullish GBPUSD – which has been my key pair that could see higher levels. I can also see potential combinations of the ratio structure but it does suggest a degree of swings on the way up. At the same time, we also need AUDUSD to extend gains.

Thus, I am basically looking for Dollar losses over today and perhaps into early next week. This will tend to suggest consolidation in EURJPY… which I got completely wrong yesterday…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, March 30, 2017

A Dollar reversal?

Yesterday mainly saw the Dollar moving higher. I had expected for it to complete that move but it ran right through to this morning. I suspect that by European open we’ll have seen the Dollar highs – or Europe will be tying up the loose ends for losses to develop.

This should see the Dollar begin to weaken over today – perhaps into tomorrow and we’ll see how deep it can reach. This could also see the Aussie being lifted higher too. The question is whether it will reach 0.7777 or not… This will be the puzzle for the down-unders.

The bigger puzzle is in EURJPY. Yesterday saw a high at 120.44 and appears to have some way to go on the downside. With EURUSD expected to rally after it’s additional low, it seems that USDJPY may have to be the sacrificial lamb. It almost seems as if it could have a brush with the 110.10 low – and I’d even feel that it could risk a new corrective low… It doesn’t look like the Cross will be able to summon the power needed to cope with the downside without the help of USDJPY… Take care in this pair. Any other alternative will require a break above 119.80…

Otherwise, I am quite satisfied with yesterday’s moves and the anticipated reversal lower in the Dollar over today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, March 29, 2017


BIAS:               Ideally, we should see gains today

Resistance:    0.7657-67     0.7684     0.7702-05     0.7720-25

Support:         0.7620-30     0.7587     0.7557-70     0.7530-40

MAIN ANALYSIS:             I was surprised with the additional losses to 0.7587 but this should have been the low - particularly because the recovery broke above 0.7648. We should allow for a pullback to 0.7620-30 but overall I am expecting a stronger rally that needs to move back towards 0.7720-25 and later above.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a break below 0.7587 could see losses extend to 0.7557-70. Take care here and note any possible bullish divergences - both hourly & 4-hour. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Looks like some swings today

I have to say that the sudden rush higher in the Dollar has generated a very challenging development. I feel relatively comfortable with EURUSD, less so in USDCHF, while USDJPY is still a development in progress. All this needs to be considered with the lone wolf GBPUSD. Well, that’s what I thought as I prepared the report but GBPUSD collapsed. This puts it between a set of alternatives and quite how the rest of the day develops will need some keen observation.

What I see is a day that can see some pretty solid swings – probably more in the second half of the day. How this develops tends to balance on the fine line that GBPUSD reached at 1.2375. Otherwise, the other three majors are likely to see Dollar gains followed by a correction.

The Aussie appears to have found its corrective low with both 4-hour and hourly bullish divergences that have taken price above the recent peaks. Therefore, there is room for gains in this pair – and it will need to be watched carefully. This seems to be in line with the expectations in the second half of the day.

As for EURJPY, it seems we do still need one more rally to a minor new high before the reversal lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

An unfortunate detour

Tiresome… That was not meant to happen and I’m not a happy bunny. The break above 1.2550 in GBPUSD now requires a move back above 1.2705. So, there’s more work to be done to complete its rally. There’s a chance that we have seen the Dollar lows in EURUSD and USDCHF – but I feel we may well see one final push to minor new Dollar lows before reversing. This would tend to correlate with the needed gains in GBPUSD but there will come a time when it probably clashes with the Continental Europeans. Still, this could just see the Continentals building their foundation waves for the next Dollar rally.

So, it looks like we’ll see a rather messy day with less directional movements and more completion of the Dollar decline – and followed by the establishment of foundation waves.

I am getting the feeling we have found the low in USDJPY. This will be confirmed by further gains into the range around 110.75-95 area approx. It will likely see a pullback before any further gains can be seen. This tends to match the expectation in the Continentals…

All this should see EURJPY in rather messy position and could still see some limited range trading but with the expectation of a minor new high before the downside resumes. It’s certainly not an easy structure to follow but I suspect in the larger picture the Euro will outrun USDJPY.

As for AUDUSD – it had a pretty narrow range day. It seems to be suggesting a further minor low but I’d suggest taking care in this pair as it is suggesting that we should see gains.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, March 27, 2017

A mild detour

This morning’s open produced a snafu that pushed EURUSD above 1.0828 and in USDCHF below 0.9881 that has provided a minor quandary. Basically, what appears to have occurred is that the rally from 1.0340 on the 3rd January fooled me – and instead the rally to 1.0828 developed in 5-waves. The rally from the 1.0493 low is now looking like a 5-wave move that will complete a zigzag.

This has generated losses in the Dollar but I feel we need to take care due to the 4-hour momentum divergences that are seen across the 4 majors. Confirmation of this will need a break through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds – all of which are flattening out and should see break to the Dollar upside. With those confirmed, we should see follow-through.

The odd-one-out is AUDUSD. Friday saw additional losses to complete a triple three and accompanied by a solid hourly bullish divergence and a mini 4-hour divergence. Perhaps it would be prudent to confirm this through direct gains – although it does seem to have broken above a descending wedge high. The idea of having a totally negative correlation is a little concerning – so it’ll still be best to take this step-by-step.

Thus, we’re going to have to take care today and hopefully by the end of the day we should discover the next directional move.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey