Wednesday, November 30, 2016


BIAS:     We should see losses to 110.75-00 for gains to then reach 121.00-20 (over a few days…)

Resistance:    119.82          119.97-15          120.51          120.65-75
Support:         119.35-45     118.95-00          118.75           118.54

MAIN ANALYSIS:    Hmmm… things have changed. Yesterday's strength was unexpected but now provides us with a stronger structure. The rally from 118.54 to reach 119.97 developed in 5-waves and this forms the penultimate high in this rally. It also implies a deep pullback in yesterday's rally. This should see the 118.75-00 area support. From here we should then see a move up to the 121.00-50 area approx. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Only an earlier break below 118.54 would suggest I have been using an incorrect structure. It would likely see losses back to the 118.10-115 area and below there to 117.30-71…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A clearly cautious market

My, my, this morning’s analysis was a tough one. Too many mini-minor ragged swings that made life difficult to catch the ratios. In these instances it is better to identify a valid 5-wave move and then work around these to see how the prior and latter development fits into the picture. On top of that, these lower degree waves need to work with the higher degree waves – and so many with difficult, noisy moves. I have a preference – but a cautious one – and needs some breaks to confirm one direction – or the opposite. Having said that, the Dollar downside appears limited – but that could have serious consequences. Thus, we are walking on a tightrope and it’s best to know where these breaks lie…

I’m also seeing the dying embers of the recovery in EURJPY. It does still have a way to go – not in terms of movement but more of the final two legs of the rally from 112.61. This tends to suggest that we’ll see two-way trading and broadly balanced between USDJPY and EURUSD – but of course allowing for the swings that need to complete the rally in the Cross. Initially, that doesn’t really give us much of a clue for the two intrinsic pairs expect that they seem to have a general correlation without excessive deviance levels.

Thus, we should generally see steady moves in all $-currency pairs... This also includes the Aussie that has seen its energy levels reduce dramatically over the past year but at some points we may well see some divergence between the Europeans and JPY versus the boomerang currency.

Today should start as normal – very quiet – that should set up the market for a stronger move. Well, perhaps that’s a bit too early because we’ll need some foundation waves to develop – and which may well end up seeing a generally quiet week as we move into the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday…

Basically, expect limited ranges for now and wait for the signs of a breakout…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

What was that?

It seems I misread part of the structures in the Europeans. It does make any difference to the targets I have but yesterday’s deeper pullbacks – as advised in the update – provided the ballpark barriers. The reversal higher in the Dollar was pretty much as expected.

As today begins we have options on both sides of the market. Have we seen a completed correction or will we see a direct follow-through? These are always the more challenging moments when considering the depth of a pullback. Even the Price Equilibrium Clouds have a slight duality. In general price has reversed through the hourly Clouds but the 4-hour Clouds are still providing resistance in the Dollar. Having said that, in general the 4-hour Clouds are flat with current price smack dab inside the Clouds… However, this may well provide the clues to next move…

The Aussie is holding above the rising 4-hour Cloud while price is smack dab in the sideways moving hourly Cloud – but it’s also starting to see an hourly bearish divergence. The risks are there – but the 4-hour Cloud will likely support – so there’s still a little ambiguity. Take care with this one.

For the JPY pairs – well, EURJPY should still look for the target area I have been indicating over the past day or two. The pullback lower in USDJPY has been relatively shallow – so the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is going to be a bit of a puzzle. Which individual pair will push the cross? At this point I am divided on this… Thus, take care…

Ideally, I’d like to see a solid move develop but the early stages in the day will be critical…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, November 28, 2016

What a waste of energy…

I had expectations for a stronger directional move to develop on Friday but clearly that did not come to pass. Indeed, the move higher in EURUSD to 1.0627 was exactly the same type of move that we saw in the Trump Spike that saw price move to 1.1299. Neither of these two instances really required such a deep pullback. However, what it implies is a stronger trend in the Wave (c)… Annoying - but frankly no harm has been done to the structure.

So the longer-term outlook I have been following is still in place and – should this continue – we’re still pointing to the range of targets over several wave degrees. While it’s a bit early in the week to mention, Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls will likely provide a catalyst. I mention this in order to enable some clarity as we approach that release – what degree of noise will it make and how will it fit into the larger structure. These will be factors that can be mulled over during the next few days in the hope of being able to take advantage.

I still have some mixed feelings over USDJPY and tend to feel that we are in a terminal process in the current wave degree. I don’t think that it will impact that much on EURJPY. Instead it’s more likely going to be driven by EURUSD. So there is some balance between the three pairs.

The Aussie has been making gains, a little messy but steady. It is currently in a position where it can correct see some losses – or even make some gains. This provides a rather difficult outlook for now and it’ll be better to wait for breaks that will confirm one of two outcomes with the bullish side being the easier to identify the next wave. The only trouble is that it could still dip first. Thus, with an unstable structure I’d suggest leaving well alone until one outcome or the other is fulfilled…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, November 25, 2016

Into the weekend

Wednesday’s development was pretty encouraging, on the whole much as expected but with a few minor glitches. We can never really expect fireworks, or even warm glow on U.S. holidays but I was also pretty encouraged with the moves we saw. If there was one pair that needed a beating then it was USDJPY. I actually spent quite a few hours working in this pair because it had begun to look very skewed. This required an adjustment right from the 99.51 low way back in August. I’m still not exactly comfortable but it appears to be approaching the targets I had set way back in August. Even then, it’s a strange structure that will require some confirmation for the next few stages. I also note that EURJPY still has upside to go but retaining the broad swings higher. This tends to suggest a relatively balance between EURUSD and USDJPY… I note there’s a decent rising channel in the cross.

The Europeans appear to be the more consistent pairs and the ones that have a constructive development right across the wave degrees. I’d suggest following these three and if you have the spreadsheet from my website, you’ll may be able to follow how these develop – working from the higher degree Wave (iii) targets that will then allow you to estimate where the lower degree Wave iii targets are most likely to fall. It will probably take until Europe opens to begin to see stronger development, but once it begins we’re likely to see steady development once again.

The Aussie – Wednesday saw some steady, but choppy, losses and followed by a pullback higher. Whether we have completed the correction is a little uncertain. Therefore, I feel it best to let it run, identify the limits and then watch for the reversal indications to identify a brand new wave…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, November 23, 2016


BIAS:     Slightly cautious - feel we are close to a temporary low

Resistance:  1.2424 1.2441 1.2460-65 1.2480
Support:  1.2383 1.2369 1.2340-45 1.2301-10

MAIN ANALYSIS:    Yesterday's high was a disappointment - just a bit lower than I had been expecting. However, overall a reversal lower was the underlying expectation. I'm just a little puzzled because the 1.2383 low should have been an impulsive projection but it wasn't really particularly accurate. The 1.2424 high was also pretty deep for this correction. I am therefore somewhat mixed but suggest watching for bullish reversal indications. A break above 1.2425 would confirm the 1.2383 low and if so, then we should see a pullback higher. The only problem with this is the unknown depth of any correction higher. Thus, take care and observe for bearish reversal indications. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   If this continues lower there is a target at 1.2369 that should spark a pullback to 1.2385-00 but then see a 3-wave decline to an estimated 1.2310-1.2345 area. If this occurs watch for bullish reversal indications…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Grating Expectations

No great surprises yesterday – well, perhaps minor ones – but putting that into the larger picture any weirdness is a mere trifle. The question for today is “will the market have any punch ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. holiday?”

More likely there could be some movement, reduction of positions or just some domestic chores to balance the books. I won’t actually rule out a stronger move. It is obviously an option but I can see from GBPUSD that it doesn’t have much oomph left after yesterday’s reversal lower. If that happens then there’s going to be a correction. The other two Europeans have room for consolidation but may well have a little more movement but the risk is for limited ranges  - or a an attempt to move on but without much follow-through. Basically, we’ll probably see a situation that will allow dull, listless day tomorrow.

If I see any movement, I suspect it may be in USDJPY. Having been capped twice by the 111.35 high I suggested in Monday’s outlook, any break below the 110.25 low will have obvious expectations… Clearly, that’s not a difficult outlook – one that just about every trader will recognise. Assuming a steady EURUSD that generates implications for EURJPY. I had a longer look at the cross yesterday and came up with a high of 118.12. That it stalled 2 points above is rather a decent call. Now we need USDJPY to do its stuff..

The Aussie has been a bit dodgy. The 0.7311 low was not an ideal projection target – actually, quite an annoying one to be honest. However, this will imply one of two things – not difficult to work out – it’ll go directly higher or will follow-through lower… Magnificent analysis! If I have my way it'll be lower…

Good trading and happy thanksgiving
Ian Copsey