Wednesday, August 31, 2016


BIAS:     Maybe we can see a minor new high at 114.99-06 but I suspect a pullback before further gains…

Resistance: 114.99-06 115.20 115.41-54 115.80-85
Support: 114.67 114.35-45 113.85 113.55

MAIN ANALYSIS:     Ouch… as in USDJPY, I wasn't expecting direct follow-through higher. However, it does seem to suggest that we should get a pullback today - rather similar to my expectations in USDJPY. Thus, we could see a move into the 114.99-06 area but then a correction lower that could reach as deep as the 114.35-45 area. That should probably take the whole day. However, assuming this low is seen and followed by a rally it should then reach the 115.41 or 115.54 projection targets. Here we should see a pullback of around 60-70 points and for gains to resume but to a final high. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a break below 114.20-25 would annoy but then I'd suggest taking care and observing momentum Any losses could reach the 113.55 support. Below there is 113.12 and 112.78.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

We need some confirmations

I’ve been in this situation before and suddenly had the market go haywire so we’ll have to wait and see.”

Maybe I’m psychic… Everything seemed to be going well but by the second half of the day it all went haywire. When I dragged myself up to sit at my desk and saw the result, I admit that it freaked me out a bit. Well, I remain cautious but looking at the bigger picture – particularly in GBPUSD and USDCHF – this appears to be a factor of the difficult structures right at the start of the moves on Friday. Still, there are some parts of the structure that are a little covered in confusion and therefore I’d much rather remain neutral for half – or a bit more – of today. I certainly hope that we’ll get back on track because it appears more logical and a different outcome would make structures far more complicated. Another thing to note is that yesterday’s moves have not broken any key levels that would cause a break of structures.

What I am seeing are bearish Dollar divergences developing in the hourly charts and considering that I don’t think yesterday’s surprise moves are ready yet to provoke a major surprise. Even the Aussie dipped lower – but still without a clear break of direction – and here we are seeing tentative steps that could generate bullish divergences.

Thus, for the Europeans and Aussie we’re going to approach the market with caution until my expectations are fulfilled… or indeed, if they are not.

That USDJPY saw a limited correction lower and follow-through higher, took me by surprise. I knew that the projections could easily be absorbed by the larger degree waves, but had not really wanted to commit to them. Well, it has happened and doesn’t appear complete just yet. I am also cognisant of upside barriers with the weekly Price Equilibrium Cloud only a minor gap away from yesterday’s high. There is also the descending channel high to consider also – and that could be the defining target. EURJPY was equally buoyant with decent bullish momentum but at some point I do expect a pullback – so take care.

It should be an interesting day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Limited moves initially

Had a few pretty good hits yesterday – the lows in EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD within a few points and USDJPY around 7 points. That’s really helpful because it tends to suggest that the outlook I have is correct. However, I’ve been in this situation before and suddenly had the market go haywire so we’ll have to wait and see.

That brings me to today… What will happen? Well, we should still see the Dollar weaken in general but, at this point, there are first reversal targets and combined with the hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that will likely keep trading restricted for at least half of the day – maybe a little more. One point that I noted is that USDCHF did not reach its ideal target. Perhaps we’ve seen a shortfall but we may need to allow for further gains in this pair in the expectation of an initial limited range. So, the Europeans look like being subdued again today.

The Aussie completed its decline I early trading yesterday… but guess what? It has the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud barring its way higher. Thus, it seems that while it has slightly wider wiggle room, it is only slight and the outlook appears pretty similar to the Europeans.

So this just leaves the JPY pairs but these appear to have more potential for the downside today, mostly driven by USDJPY that, as mentioned above, stalled 7 points below my favoured target. It would seem these two – more likely USDJPY – will provide a modicum of movement but with the attendant risk that it could be a choppy decline and not trending.

So, it looks like a mostly dull day and only towards the second half of the day – maybe into North America – that we could begin to see more directional moves…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, August 29, 2016


BIAS:     We should see the 0.7515-25 area support for gains

Resistance: 0.7550-65 0.7586-02 0.7630-35 0.7655-60
Support: 0.7515-25 0.7485-93 0.7455 0.7420

MAIN ANALYSIS:    It was the downside - that broke below 0.7601 and 0.7588 to reach the 0.7545 - 70 area and actually to 0.7525. Allow for 0.7515. This should be the low for gains to resume. Take care initially at 0.7550-65 that should provide resistance for a while - and later move up to 0.7586-02. Once that area breaks we should see firmer gains.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    A break below 0.7510-15 would surprise. I'd prefer to remain neutral with the generally expected Dollar weakness more likely to form some base - but this would surprise. However, note the 0.7420-55 area that should provide support - even if temporarily...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thrifty Thursday, Freaky Friday

You gotta love the market. The last two days of last week were in stark contrast - boredom versus frenetic. It wasn’t the exact pattern I had expected and has caused some minor changes, particularly in USDCHF, but in terms of the bigger picture it hasn’t really changed things except for the diversion we have seen. It just makes things a little more complicated in terms of correlations – particularly in the Europeans. From that perspective, I’d prefer to see confirmations of my expectations over today to ensure that I’ve interpreted this twist correctly. Basically, I can’t see that we shall see rabid Dollar gains today.

This is much the same with AUDUSD that followed the European template – a deeper pullback and then a panic at the end of the day. Like the Europeans, it hasn’t changed the structure at all – just the deeper initial recovery but then the losses I had been looking for. So basically, it looks like the Aussie and Europeans are basically correlated.

Now, where there has been change is in the JPY pairs. For the past week I had been very cautious about both pairs. I had/have my final outcome in mind but was uncertain of whether we had seen the lows in USDJPY in particular. In some ways, we haven’t yet really seen confirmation but I’m pretty certain of what is now happening. However, in EURJPY that had been fussing around a bit and causing some ambiguity, Friday’s push higher has changed things a bit. It has certainly broken the structure I had been considering but this just changes this into an alternative corrective pattern. This tends to resonate across the Europeans and with USDJPY also but suggests continued complications in the cross that should last for a week or two at least.

I can’t see Friday’s Dollar gains begin excessive today.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, August 26, 2016

Busy going nowhere…

Gee, we could have taken the day off yesterday. Dull… but then it’s still August. I am expecting things to hot up a bit more, not particularly immediately but at some point in September. However, today I can’t see a similar day to yesterday. In fact, in some ways, the fact yesterday was flat really made the analysis easy today … because nothing has really changed. Yes, it wasn’t what I had wanted but did know there was the risk of deeper pullbacks – and that was what we saw yesterday.

If there are any doubts in my mind it will be because of the apparent degree of movement required across the pairs. First things first, the key pair that can provide a key barrier is in USDCHF, as I have been mentioning. This still needs some Dollar bullish development and we’re going to have to watch all three Europeans achieve their targets. Once that is done we can see a more constructive development.

This same outlook is relevant in AUDUSD also. It doesn’t have a pretty structure but it is valid. Obviously we need take care of the key break points, but as long as the above is correct we should see the outcome I have been expecting.

As for USDJPY… well, it shot up in early trading yesterday, making me feel we should see the next move … but then it seemed to find itself lost in a maze. There’s no real break of my scenario but it certainly doesn’t have much room before the structure breaks. On top of that, with USDJPY appearing to be working in opposition to the Europeans, it gives me a headache in EURJPY. Frankly, I think we need to sit back and watch these two pairs and wait for it to commit to one direction or another… Once that occurs we should be able to move on from there…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Consistency across the pairs

The heading is basically correct – I think at least … but there is one outlier in GBPUSD that could buck the trend – or I may have screwed something up.

I had some doubts yesterday morning – mostly because, when I started in the morning there were chances of Dollar losses although I knew we could see direct Dollar gains. Very clearly, the Dollar did make a direct move higher so all was well. That GBPUSD chose to buck that trend was the surprise package. In some respects there is a similar conflict at the start of the today - but pretty much the same as yesterday. I have some rough targets I am looking for but there’s one pair – USDCHF where I can identify a more accurate stalling point. I’d suggest that you keep that target in mind, as it’s very likely that the other pairs will stall around the same time.

I’m also quite intrigued how the U.S. indices have managed to correlate with the Dollar and I can see this continuing over the coming week. This coming week-10 days does appear to be promising some coordinated moves in both the Dollar and the indices.

As I have described the Europeans, the Aussie has joined the European bunch in a similar outcome. I’m not sure whether the barrier in USDCHF will mean much to the Aussie, but if you can read the wave structure – even match potential similar momentum patterns, this could help the process of identifying stalling points…

USDJPY performed really well too – but not quite in EURJPY. It’s the cross that has some uncertainty and I’d suggest standing back while the other pairs develop. For USDJPY, the perfect development does point to the targets I indicated yesterday. Thus, keep track there as I feel this could be a key day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, August 24, 2016


BIAS:     We should be focusing on the downside today

Resistance: 1.3209-14 1.3234-48 1.3275-80 1.3300-05
Support: 1.3170-75 1.3145-50 1.3120 1.3100-05

MAIN ANALYSIS:   While the 1.3170-75 support holds there may be an argument for a minor new high between 1.3209-24. However, I have my doubts. That there is limited upside suggests we should not be looking for strong gains. A break below 1.3170-75 would signal losses down to 1.3120 at least - potentially as deep as 1.3100-05 or 1.3080-85. We should be looking for bullish reversal indications that will eventually take us to around 1.3324 at least.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:     A direct break below 1.3022 - and allow for 1.2990-00 - would surprise and suggest stronger losses below 1.2973 and below…

Good trading
Ian Copsey