Tuesday, April 26, 2016

The long and winding road

… which so far hasn’t got us very far… Sometimes I wonder how the market can utilise empty space with such maddening, meaningless meandering, yet maintaining an underlying structure. However, yesterday’s backtracking has merely been met by the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds in EURUSD and USDCHF that should maintain a barrier to allow the Dollar upside to resume – and no doubt very, very and err… very slowly…

That GBPUSD managed to break above 1.4513 has generated an alternative to the consolidation. Having said that, while there could be some further upside, I doubt it will be by much and over the coming week or so I suspect we’ll be back below today’s levels. Thus, we can remained assured that there will likely still be ratcheting swings for some while to come – I suspect for 2-4 weeks.

The Aussie looks pretty much the same. While it made minor new lows yesterday – and there’s even risk of further minor lows – the upside should resume but expect the broad swings continue for some while. What has been most painful is the slow development that has me falling asleep in front of the screen…

USDJPY hit targets yesterday. I can’t rule out further losses but there’s now a fine line between bullish and bearish. I note that EURJPY is at a point where it needs to follow-through higher else suffer relapse. This was the point I mentioned in yesterday’s report. Thus, watch the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY and be aware of the limits on both sides of the market. This could be a bit tricky unless a clear break is seen…

It looks like another slow day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



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