Thursday, April 28, 2016

Soporific Fed

I woke up this morning and turned on my charting and all hell had let loose. First I worked through the structures because they are more important than reading some boring economic piffle. Having waded through the analysis and generally feeling I have resolved all the sharp whips, I decided to have a look to see what had caused this mess. “The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 0.25% and 0.5%, the rate it’s held since December.

Oh whoopydido… That was exciting wasn’t it? Seriously, what was all that kerfuffle for? In the Continental Europeans the only impact was a complex correction and has basically retained the expected outlook that I offered yesterday. Even the little blip after the big blip sorted itself out and actually has (what looks to be) a really strong structure with appropriate targets. The job now is to follow this through and confirm the intermediate levels are seen.

GBPUSD did give me a little more work to do. The correction from 1.4638 high has been so paltry that I have had to adjust back the count to one I had originally had, but with the follow-through I tried to keep it on track otherwise it would have seen a mini-minor correction. Well, it appears that the mini-minor correction was correct. Thus, we should have a generally correlated outlook for all three Europeans.

Of all, it was the Aussie that had me puzzling. Having dropped below my support following whatever announcement, that was made by whoever, it has changed the entire game plan. Nevertheless, today it should correlate with the Europeans today I feel but could be pretty choppy.

If the Fed announcement impacted on the Europeans, it appears to have had a dampening effect on the upside and tends to suggest a sideways consolidation. This should dampen the upside in EURJPY – but still make gains overall. Frankly, it is better to give the JPY pairs a wide berth today and allow them both to work through their independent structures until close to completion.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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