Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Follow-through

I was, perhaps, a bit too early with the call for a directional move – a factor of extremely complicated whipsaws in both EURUSD and USDCHF. We’re still in a corrective phase within a larger corrective structure that still has some way to go and this can generate some rather introspective – even stifling – movement. However, I feel now that the outlook I have been so consistently suggesting should now develop. It is still only part of the whole, so there is the risk of more of what we have just seen. Even GBPUSD managed to add complications and to the extent that it suggests a week or two (maybe more) of corrective behaviour. It really does highlight the need for short term trades only.

Thus, the call I made yesterday should actually happen today – and may take longer than just one day…

There also seems to be a risk of AUDUSD maintaining a general sideways to downward move today. It’s a rather fragile structure but would maintain the general upside risk once this consolidation finally ends. I had been looking for a more direct push higher but the upside was so limited that something had to be wrong – hence the adjustment into a complex sideways move within the next higher wave degree. Thus, be aware of the break levels just in case.

USDJPY managed to make upward progress. I’m not particularly confident of this rally – or more accurately I could not resolve the structure in the rally. I would prefer to see further gains but a break above 109.10 is a necessity. Until then the risk of another marginal new low is possible – even if I don’t like it. That the downside in EURJPY broke down is suggesting a complex correction in its position. This looks like continuing the sideways to lower direction but within a likely flat correction.

Progress looks like being slow. Take care.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




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