Tuesday, April 12, 2016

A directional day?

Having anticipated a particularly non-directional day yesterday, I was basically happy with yesterday. The one pair that did manage a little movement was GBPUSD for which I was basically bullish but without any preconceived idea of how deep the gains will penetrate. So, I’ll take that as positive day although it was a difficult one to judge. That USDJPY and USDCHF made marginal new lows was a bit disappointing.

What next? Well, I have a rough time target around the 3rd week in May. Around that timeframe I feel there may well be a stronger directional move. Yes, a trend. A daily trend… It has been so long without a decent daily trend that it would be easy to believe that we’ll never see one again. Such as been the wretchedness of the market since early last year. However, that still suggests we may need to tread water for another 6 weeks. This still appears to be correct from the position in the current corrective patterns. Thus, overall, I can still see we shall continue to see some difficult structures and development.

I have been hammering my view over the past week without getting anywhere but it is now about time that this view began to materialise. For now it seems Dollar bullish but how quickly this can develop is not really a known factor. However, this does seem to be universal across the Europeans and USDJPY. The Aussie is up for negotiation. Therefore, I suspect today should make some steps towards that outcome. How quickly this will develop I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess given the lethargy in the market…

As for EURJPY, I can see the 3rd week in May as a potential target also. It doesn’t look like a direct move but one with a wider amplitude between the swings. For now this should be lower but I don’t see a great deal of room on the downside for now.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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