Friday, June 19, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR GBPUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: While 1.5729-67 supports we should see one more push towards 1.5950-75 (max 1.599-17) before losses

Resistance: 1.5899 1.5929 1.5950 1.5975
Support: 1.5848 1.5820-25 1.5798-05 1.5767

MAIN ANALYSIS: I have always had some doubts over the structure - although having said that, after trying to see an alternative, it only appears to be in the most recent stages. I feel that today should initially see losses that could reach the 1.5767 area (+/-) and allowing for 1.5729. Watch for bullish reversal indications - as long as these occur we should see one more rally above 1.5929 but could only see an overlap of around 20 points with the 1.5950 area a possible target - I think at most 1.5999. Assuming we see the initial losses followed by the recovery, it should allow both 4-hour & hourly bearish divergences to develop - but will need to ensure this occurs... 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Above 1.6000 is not necessarily a problem (although I feel it a bit deep for the move from 1.5189) with higher projections at 1.6045-55 and even 1.6099.

Below around 1.5700-10 will break a channel support (though it's rising) and will risk a deeper correction but which could be quite choppy.

MEDIUM TER ANALYSIS:
18th June:  The rally has been far more robust than I had anticipated and risks a correction that has potential to be relatively deep - I see potential targets in the larger wave degree around 1.5950-98 and as approached should be watch for bearish reversal indications.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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