Tuesday, March 31, 2015


31st March:

We have seen Wave -iv- and are close to the Wave -a-. At this point we're closing in on the Wave (iii) projection that could be as close as the 198.4% projection at 0.7611 but could reach the 223.6% at 0.7577. With Wave (ii) being 61% we should see the Wave (iv) between the 23.6%-33.3% retracement. This should suggest a Wave (v) at a minimum of around 0.7539 but could be deeper if the 223.6% projection is seen in Wave (iii). Thus, we'll need to watch the next move to estimate the Wave (v) to form Wave -a-. Once seen we should see a modest correction in Wave -b- before lower to the Wave [iii] targets...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Treacherous price development

When I looked at my charts this morning I thought a group of dizzy spiders had been scampering around. Erratic, scribbling of infants is another description that would provide an idea of the scrawl I saw. This “noise” makes life a lot more difficult to be 100% confident of structures developing at this moment. Even the U.S. indices are going through a similar process. Therefore, do please exercise more than the normal level of care when trading. This type of “noise” can easily break above/below prior highs/lows, trigger stops and then resume the original direction. If in doubt, don’t trade. If you do make a trade, best take smaller positions.

However, despite the erratic development, what we saw yesterday was pretty much in line with the expectations for Dollar gains. I can’t see that they are complete but I don’t see a huge follow-through. Thus, consider the estimated targets I have and take profits a little earlier than normal. The risk of stubby Wave v’s is quite high.

As suggested, the Aussie provided the most consistent move – bearish as expected and just a little more direct than I had thought but we’re not far from some corrective behaviour that should slow the decline. This could generate a period of corrective behaviour before the final follow-through.

USDJPY was much stronger than expected and seems to suggest follow-through within the correction – and potentially to an extreme in this position. However, do be aware of bearish divergences at some point that should come after a modestly deep correction. This rally came as a bit of a surprise and has made the EURJPY cross to look as if it needs to trigger a marginal new high – preferably with bearish divergences. A combination of USDJPY topping out and resistance in EURJPY would be very helpful.

Another day to take profits when seen…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, March 30, 2015

Risk of extended complications

The additional Dollar gains, even if minor - along with Thursday’s Key Reversal days - have destroyed the potential impulsive development. When I first saw this, my first reaction was for a recycling higher. However, the first reaction has denied that option. Instead, in its place, it suggests that we’re going to see some complicated corrective structures in a more extended sideways move. Interestingly, the U.S. Indices look as if they may fall into the same “trap.” It doesn’t look pretty and raises risks of erratic and whippy development. In this type of consolidation there is always the chance that we could see a key high or low broken by just a point or two only to see a whip back in the opposite direction.

However, I feel there’s a good chance of seeing some gains in the Dollar early in the day in all three Europeans. Even then, I’d recommend keeping trades short in duration, preferring to take profits rather than letting them run.

There seems to be a slightly different outlook in AUDUSD. Well different, but still with the near term risking limited follow-through and subject to corrections. In the larger picture the downside does look vulnerable and thus selling into rallies is preferred.

As for the JPY currencies, I should begin with EURJPY because this does seem to suggest losses from the start. Whether this is driven by EURUSD or USDJPY is arguable. However, I can’t see EURUSD retracing higher by very much – perhaps not at all. So probably EURJPY appears to be the best vehicle for a more sustained move. The only risk is USDJPY making another attempt on the upside that would slow the bearish progress in the cross. If both intrinsic pairs decline then jump on board.

Thus, be aware of break levels and likely target areas within the consolidation.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, March 27, 2015


BIAS: The break of 130.20-34 and the expected weakness in USDJPY should see losses overall

Resistance: 129.86 130.15-30 130.50 130.86
Support: 129.23-49 128.79-96 128.30-40 128.20

MAIN ANALYSIS: The 130.20-34 area (and at 130.16) looked as if it would see the follow-through higher. However, with USDJPY breaking supports this has turned round to a more direct decline. As today begins we should see the 130.15-30 area cap (allow for 130.50.) From here we should see losses resume to reach the 128.79-96 area for a shallow correction and then a target around 128.30-40. Take care here as I suspect a relatively deep correction. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break below 130.60 would take price back to the 131.40-50 area…

27th March:   Yesterday's losses, fuelled by USDJPY, should now see firmer moves down to 128.30-40 initially but later the overall losses should move down to 123.58 at least - potentially lower. As the lower degree development solidifies I should be able to fine-tune the target.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Greater clarity developing

The Europeans saw some broad, swinging moves yesterday. These appear to have been the completion of a complex correction in all three – although GBPUSD is not quite so clear. Overall it suggests further losses in the Dollar in the Continentals but not too robust, and the structure still suggesting potential for a development that sees a 3-wave move. Once those have been seen, the risk will be for a reversal.

In GBPUSD I have been looking for an alternative outcome. That it correlated well with EURUSD yesterday does raise some concerns and I’d suggest ensuring there are good trade signals. In some ways, I’d just like to see it move lower. However, this does require confirmation.

The Aussie appears to now have confirmed a high and thus we should be able to take advantage of the downside. Having said that, the current development is rather erratic so there’s still care to be taken. Overall, it should move lower.

As for the JPY pairs, we have seen USDJPY take bearish stance. There is room for a retracement over today but the next downside target does not require a deep correction. Keep your eyes peeled. This has a very clear eventual target area. As such, with the movement in EURUSD relatively limited, the risk is for EURJPY to follow USDJPY as it did yesterday. If there is any clearer vehicle to jump aboard it’s probably USDJPY and / or AUDUSD.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Sitting on the fence

Cor blimey… what a rotten day. I hadn’t really expected too much yesterday, but the market was completely devoid of any idea what to do. Basically, the consolidation we saw was probably the best example of complete lack of commitment, desire and interest. We do still have the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds capping the Dollar and in USDCHF actually seeing the Cloud catch up with price. I can’t say there are any firm indications of a return to the Dollar upside so the apparent outcome should be for losses. However, we need to see some breaks of range soon to kick-start a more directional move.

I have been allowing GBPUSD to extend gains a little more but it just plain refuses to do so. This is beginning to sway the weight of argument to the downside. Indeed, if this occurs I can see a firmer directional move lower. I think this may be one of the better vehicles today.

The Aussie failed to move higher and actually saw a drift lower. It’s hardly a clear picture and I’m very well aware of the larger wave degrees having already satisfied a correction. However, it does need to set a stronger breaks to confirm its intent.

Even the indecisiveness has hit USDJPY. It has begun to build a base for further gains but hasn’t really made any definitive move as yet. It hasn’t broken any key supports or resistances and thus we’re going to remain patient. A break or two of key levels would really help this make a more robust move. Certainly, USDJPY hardly provided any leadership in EURJPY … which, along with EURUSD moving sideways, made for a really dull day.

I still have a preference for EURJPY to move in a very similar way to EURUSD – that is a bit down – and a bit up…  Frankly we need either EURUSD or USDJPY to commit to a direction.

So today starts still rather defensively but watch carefully for signs of a break out to see a more directional move.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, March 25, 2015


BIAS: There appears to be a risk of losses to 1.0842-60 before rallying towards 1.1050-70 (approx)

Resistance: 1.0934 1.0952-68 1.1000-29 1.1050-70
Support: 1.0882-90 1.0842-60 1.0805-10 1.0784

MAIN ANALYSIS: Price did follow-through to just below 1.0974 and after a correction pushed above 1.0990-00 to 4-points above 1.1025. With the constraints I had been expecting from USDCHF, I am a little more comfortable with further gains. However, I suspect that first we should see a pullback to the 1.0842-60 area. With positive divergences we should then see a rally back towards 1.1025-30 and after a correction this could reach the 1.1050-70 area (approx.) Watch for bearish reversal indications but which suggests only for a correction.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a direct break above the 1.1075 high would suggest follow-through to 1.1114 and towards the 1.1150-55 area.

25th March:  Am expecting a move to around 1.1050-70 followed by a correction and then another rally that could reach as high as 1.1140-60. Ideally this should cap for losses to renew but we shall need to confirm the reversal lower.

Below 1.0800 would begin to suggest that we have seen a major high and losses could resume - initially to 1.0735-67 but overall lower...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A certain vagueness

Further losses in the Dollar, excepting GBPUSD. I have taken a longer look at both EURUSD and USDCHF. I found an alternative outcome in the latter that provides a little more flexibility when considering EURUSD. I had been looking at the losses in USDCHF as being incompatible with EURUSD in terms of the alternative structure I have been proposing. The adjustment suggests that both pairs can renew Dollar gains – even if the Dollar slips lower again.

The more sluggish development seen yesterday has allowed the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds to support EURUSD but is still someway above USDCHF. To cover GBPUSD also, well, price is oscillating around the 4-hour Cloud, obviously demonstrating consolidation. Otherwise, momentum is not really providing any significant indications. The more challenging issue is the rather complicated structural development. At this point I tend to favour some minor new Dollar lows today but then pulling back. I’d also like GBPUSD to make a minor new corrective high but this is rather vague at the moment.

Even AUDUSD is a bit mixed, supported by the hourly Price Equilibrium Cloud, but the 4-hour Cloud still some way below. It tends to suggest a minor new high but may not be sustainable on the first attempt. This tends to keep it in play for the upside.

USDJPY extended losses to 3 points above a retracement support. It is currently being herded by the declining 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud, but threatening to break above the hourly Cloud. It tends to suggest a recovery at least but will need confirmation and that’s a bit higher up so we’ll have to be patient. As for EURJPY, well much depends on the two constituent parts and given the uncertainty over both I’d much rather wait until one or the other – or both – see a significant break.

Thus, the same cautious approach will still be prudent, taking profits when seen…

Good trading
Ian Copsey