Friday, July 18, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: While care needs be taken, we should see the uptrend resume

Resistance: 101.35-45 101.57 101.79 102.10
Support: 101.06 100.75-82 100.54 100.23

MAIN ANALYSIS: Yesterday the market took the bull by the horns... and then let go… to free fall down to 2 points above the 101.06 low. It hardly generates great confidence although there is an hourly bullish divergence - but the swing high much higher at 101.57. So to be more confident of this rally this is the technical point that would see the gains extend. One additional indicator is the 24 & 48 week cycle lows being seen this week. Therefore, I do feel we'll see this back to the 101.79 high over time and probably to the 102.26-35 peaks at the very least but will take until early next week. Also note the higher 102.79 high.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break below 101.06 would destroy my structure completely. I'd have to review but overall would imply losses down to 100.75-85 at least and we'd have to see if that area breaks…

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
15th July:  I'm not sure I liked not seeing one more drop but the break above 101.45-50 was enough to break the bearish sequence and with the 24-week cycle low suggests we are about to see a larger rally develop that should reach above 102.79...

Only below 100.75-82 now would risk losses to 99.52 and max 98.65...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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