Wednesday, July 16, 2014


BIAS: See some range (0.8945 - 68) trading today within the underlying rally

Resistance: 0.8962-68 0.8976-81 0.8993 0.9012
Support: 0.8946-48 0.8935 0.8926 0.8919

MAIN ANALYSIS: Price continued in its consolidation to complete an irregular ascending triangle which then forced the 0.8958 target to break but should stall around 0.8968. From there the risk will be lower to the 0.8946 area. (Allow for 0.8935.) We may even find this turns into a complex sideways consolidation. However, the basic support should hold for gains back to 0.8968 and then to 0.8976-81 at least - allow for 0.8993. This should cap for losses again...

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break below 0.8935 would risk more direct losses down to 0.8919 and later back to the 0.8897 low. Also note the 0.887787 support.

15th July:  I still remain with the preference to see gains to extend to around the 0.8974-95 area before a second set of losses to a deeper retracement to the 0.8698 - 0.9036 rally. However, at this particular stage I find the immediate developments ambiguous and cannot rule out a mild dip to 0.8879-89 before the move higher. I suspect EURUSD will help clarify the position here following today's developments.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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