Wednesday, July 9, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: The correction higher should continue but will still be choppy

Resistance: 1.3620-27 1.3634 1.3653-64 1.3675
Support: 1.3601-06 1.3587-89 1.3575 1.3552-61

MAIN ANALYSIS: Gains seen to just below 1.3620 and it's likely we'll see 1.3620-27 early in the day. This should see a correction lower (holding above 1.3590-00) before extending the upside towards 1.3634 and probably 1.3653-64 - and allow for 1.3675. Thus, watch for bearish reversal indications as price reaches these higher areas. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any deviation from the preferred outlook above would obviously imply a different outcome: 
- Above 1.3580 would retest the 1.3700-18 area but would tend to suggest potential for a deeper correction to 1.3750-80.
- Direct losses would imply the opposite - that we could see a more direct attack on 1.3502-11. Take care there but any breach would potentially imply a test of 1.3476-80 at least and possibly lower...

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
7th July: Although the impulsive move higher broke down it does provide us with a very rigid outcome to maintain the same expectation of an eventual corrective high at 1.3718. This will require a move down to 1.3502-11 before a move back higher. While very precise and rigid it will also alert us should the structure break down. Thus, maintain observance of the current development and should it diverge from the required structure we can begin to understand the implications. Certainly, from GBPUSD's perspective it would more likely be a stronger decline.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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