Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Back on track

The first half of the day in the Continental Europeans remained a mess. It resolved itself overall but the market chose one of those warped half-breed triangles to complete the correction. The subsequent Dollar gains were exactly what I have been pointing to though have yet to reach their ideal projection targets. Hopefully, the rest of the move should continue to develop in line with the expectations indicated once the 1.3642 low was broken. Even then, this next target is just an intermediate one but I sense the correction could well be complex…

For the other European, the early decline in GBPUSD stalled a little higher than expected and whipped back higher. From this point I’d suggest taking care. There remains a risk of additional gains to the long-held target but it’s treading a fine line in the reversal from 1.7190. Thus, do take note of the limits on each side that will provide us with break levels.

AUDUSD made its way lower, the preferred outcome, but certainly made a meal out of the move. So much so, that there are risks on both sides of the market and similar to GBPUSD we are finely balanced between the two. Again, the break levels should provide us with the information to work out the next move.

USDJPY developed almost point perfect. It’s beginning to struggle on the upside and I’d therefore suggest a solid dollop of due care & attention. I am doubly concerned about EURJPY that, while it could still be following my expectations, the expectations in both EURUSD and USDJPY tend to suggest we may well see a complicated sideways consolidation. Therefore, best be aware of the individual inputs from each and also be aware of breaks that will provide the next move.

It’s likely to be a complicated day again. No home runs but more likely choppy trading.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

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