Wednesday, June 19, 2019

PULLBACK

Yesterday, we have seen the Dollar highs for now in EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD. Therefore, we should be looking at a corrective process. How deep this will be is pretty difficult to judge although if you look at EURUSD it doesn’t seem to have a massive pullback. USDCHF has formed a Wave -i- and therefore will need a pullback in Wave -ii-. GBPUSD … maybe a modest pullback but overall, as we know, corrections can be slow. 

Now, the final major – USDJPY – has seen deeper losses and frankly, while there could still be a pullback, we should be heading higher…

I ended up screwing up in EURJPY. The Wave i I had was incorrect and instead saw a stronger move lower and overall has formed a (brown) Wave -i- and, like the other three majors, we should be heading back in a Wave -ii-…

Downunder, we have formed the (brown) Wave (iii) and will either see the limit of a Wave (iv) – or we shall see a deep Wave (b)/(v)…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, June 18, 2019

IDEALLY, WE SHOULD SEE A REVERSAL BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

It’s still a slow market but at least we’re getting closer to a pullback. Most likely we should be seeing the reversal today. I just hope that the pullback will be relatively swift. Ha! That’s a joke! Well, ideally, we’ll see a reversal to the Dollar downside. EURUSD is close to finding its low – equally the same in USDCHF but for a pullback lower. 
GBPUSD has just reached the Wave iii and, most likely, we should see a modest pullback – or perhaps a deep Wave b/v…

So, while the three markets noted above, we have USDJPY flapping about, sleeping on the job and really not engaged with the market. It may even see a deeper pullback below the current (green) Wave b. It’s been over a week that I suggested the first reversal target but we ain’t getting there yet…

EURJPY appears to be following a slow pullback higher. Once EURUSD has found its low, this could provide a firmer rally but we still need to be aware of the slothsome USDJPY…

 Finally. The Aussie has reached a Wave (iii) and that could either provide a deep-ish kind of pullback or a deep Wave b/v… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, June 17, 2019

WE’RE LOOKING FOR A MINOR FOLLOW-THROUGH FOR A REVERSAL

By gum, it has been a slow, slow development. I can’t even say that it’s going to change but – at some point – we’ll begin to see some stronger moves. Basically, EURUSD should just need a 3-wave decline in a Wave v. That’s pretty much the same in USDCHF. However, both USDJPY and GBPUSD should be looking for a slightly firmer move higher in the Dollar. Ideally, USDJPY should be seeing a slightly stronger move higher but I’ve been frustrated with this pair for quite some time, but I’d really like to see this pair finally reach the first reversal target. 

We may have seen the low in EURJPY. We have a decent hourly bullish divergence. Indeed, it tends to suggest that USDJPY should be firmer while EURUSD fiddles around, taking a nap and glad to be doing very little. 

Down under, we have a decline to see to reach the (brown) Wave (c)/(iii) and I fancy the potential for a modestly deep pullback in Wave (iv)…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  




Friday, June 14, 2019

IT LOOKS LIKE A MIX AND MATCH DAY

I’m getting a bit frustrated with the slow development. In particular, USDJPY should have seen the first reversal target by now but the market just moves sideways. I’ll still keep the Wave iii targets in mind, hopefully, to see some further gains… but… 

EURUSD still needs losses – not too deep but hopefully to form a Wave -i-. USDCHF has been averse to the upside but it must see gains over the day. (Please.) GBPUSD … well, I’d prefer to see losses but there is the risk of an initial pullback higher before those losses. 

There is a chance that we have seen a Wave -i- in EURJPY. The only caveat is that the lower degrees were so shallow that it’s rather difficult to work through the tick-bar development, but it takes so long to work through. 

The Aussie is a little easier. We have seen a 5-wave decline to form the (brown) Wave (a). This should see a decent pullback higher in Wave (b).

Overall, it should still follow the recent development in terms of limited ranges.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  




Thursday, June 13, 2019

WE CONTINUE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION WAVES

At least we’ve finally seen some Dollar gains. It has been a slow process but over the U.S. session, we have finally seen some decent progress. Several pairs are really just building the next higher degree development while others building the lower degrees. This would tend to suggest some swings – a pullback and then later further development to reach the higher degree development. This will likely move into next week. 

I’ve been waiting for the first reversal target in USDJPY, but being frustrated, although I suspect we’ll manage to reach the target today – perhaps into the U.S, session. A few days ago, I mentioned that we should reach to the 1.1200-30 area. Hopefully, we may be able to see that today – maybe tomorrow. USDCHF suffered an expanded flat so we should now be seeing the gains I had been waiting for. GBPUSD finally got up from its slumber to see losses and this should provide a decent decline. 

In the cross, EURJPY has finally managed some losses and should see more but, as I mentioned the swings above, that could just be a slow, slow process. 

The Aussie needs some losses and a pullback… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, June 12, 2019

WE ARE STILL IN THE SLOW, SLOW PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FOUNDATION WAVES

Perhaps I’m too impatient. Well, that could be right but take the example of USDJPY. The start of this move began at 93.78 back in June 2013 and we still have quite some way to go… although I suspect we’ll see some acceleration over the coming months, thanks to Brexit. 

Indeed, we should now begin to find some Dollar bullish development over the next day or three. We need to see USDJPY reach the first reversal target. EURUSD has seen a pullback and at some point, today we are likely to see losses. Equally, USDCHF should move higher and GBPUSD lower. 

I’m slightly uncertain about EURJPY. I’d like to see a minor new high before seeing losses develop. If I haven’t quite hit the right structure, then a break below yesterday’s low… 

As for the Aussie, I’m looking at two alternatives. We may have formed a shallow Wave ii, followed by a (lower degree) wave i and Wave ii. If this is correct, then we’ll be moving lower. The alternative is a deeper pullback in Wave ii… Just take care… and wait for the breaks.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Tuesday, June 11, 2019

WE ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FOUNDATION WAVES

We’ve made some decent Dollar gains but there’s still a lot to get through to finally get to the point of a higher degree Wave (i) and Wave (ii). So, we’re going to need to continue following the lower degree development to finally get to the higher degree. This should likely move into next week. 

We should have a good chance of approaching the first reversal target in USDJPY – maybe today but could move into tomorrow. EURUSD may have seen a Wave b but we’ll have to be aware of a deeper Wave b but then we should be heading lower. This is very similar to USDCHF and GBPUSD also, but overall, we should still be looking to the Dollar upside overall. 

As far as I can see, we have formed a Wave i in AUDUSD so we may well see a pullback higher before any stronger decline.

I’m also a little uncertain in EURJPY. We have seen a double zigzag so far but we may even see a final zigzag to complete a triple three. If there are any strong losses in EURUSD, perhaps we can see loses in the cross. However, this will need to move cautiously. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey