Friday, August 17, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR EURUSD AND GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1398 - 1.1410


TARGET MET AT 1.2754










ANOTHER DAY OF DOLLAR LOSSES

It wasn’t quite the day I had expected. It started well, EURUSD and GBPUSD reaching the first reversal targets as expected to then see a pullback. In the case of EURUSD we then saw an expanded flat and in GBPUSD deeper into the first reversal target. In the meantime, USDJPY and USDCHF pretended to be the swing kings – again not quite as I had expected – but the overall result should now be taking us back to the Dollar downside. There will still be swings, but within a larger follow-through, so we’re going to stretch the Dollar lower today.

I’m a little puzzled with EURJPY. With EURUSD expected to see gains and USDJPY expecting to see losses I would like to be rather cautious in case that we see a complex correction. I’ve taken a look at the structure from the 125.14 low. I didn’t label it as an ABC but I could see a possible alternative that could provide an ABC. I’m just not totally confident of this outcome. However, I suspect that EURUSD will be stronger than a bearish USDJPY – but that’s something we’ll have to cope with. Given the balance between the two pairs, I don’t think we’re going to see a trending day. Best leave this alone.

My preference for AUDUSD is for a bearish outcome – but be aware of any break above 0.7277.

Have a spiffing weekend
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, August 16, 2018

NOW WE SHOULD SEE DOLLAR LOSSES

After the first failure, I’m more confident that we have found the Dollar highs – for now. As I mentioned on the first attempt, we should see Dollar losses throughout the 4-majors. It is USDJPY that should provide the limit of the move at 111.08. Of course, it will likely reverse from above that limit but as long as EURUSD and GBPUSD have completed either a series of zigzags – or perhaps just one zigzag being a larger ABC. So far in USDJPY, we have completed one zigzag already so we have the potential for a double zigzag or a triple three. Most likely it will form a triple three.

So let the follow-through continue…

However, before any decent losses in the Dollar it looks like we’ll see a minor pullback in EURUSD and at the same time a limited pullback higher in USDCHF before losses. Equally, USDJPY appears to need a (limited) pullback higher before deeper losses develop. GBPUSD is less easy to provide the initial development but overall, of course, we should be looking for gains to develop along with EURUSD.

One initial target in EURUSD is between 1.1380-1.1420. Normally that will see a pullback and then higher again. In GBPUSD the same target area should be seen between 1.2750-80 – and most likely a minor pullback before gains resume.

The Aussie should see a ragged pullback higher.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, August 15, 2018

MINOR FOLLOW-THROUGH AND REVERSAL

Did’ya hear me scream? Didya? Didya? Right into the busiest day of the week, USDJPY suddenly rushed higher. Then, when I was in slumber, EURUSD and GBPUSD slipped below their lows that I thought was the low. I did consider the potential that we had seen a very, very shallow Wave (ii) but frankly in EURUSD the “normal” projection in the Wave (iii) was beyond what I normally consider the limit. Of course, there isn’t a limit – but I decided on an alternative.

We still have Dollar bullish room on the upside and I tend to feel that we haven’t yet completed the Wave (i) in EURUSD and GBPUSD… So we’re more likely to see a broad swing higher in the Dollar to then complete the Wave (i) to then move back higher in a Wave (ii). That still leaves a decent amount of room for USDJPY to move lower. As for USDCHF – well, it does what it does – sometimes it develops in furtive creeps and sometimes goes bonkers. At this point it’s rather like a dirty old man.

So, basically we should see Dollar gains to complete the Wave (v) in both EURUSD and GBPUSD before the deeper gains in the Wave (ii).

This leaves EURJPY filtering through the mess in USDJPY and EURUSD – but I suspect USDJPY will initially drag it higher.

As for AUDUSD… Well, we have a jolly good bullish divergence and I expect a pullback but frankly it does seem to be distressed. Be wary of the upside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, August 14, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1365



BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

While yesterday was a slow old day, as far as I can see we should now have seen the final Dollar high – for now. This now requires EURUSD and GBPUSD to develop in a corrective development while USDJPY and USDCHF should see follow-through in an impulsive move.

The balance between the two sets of pairs are slightly different – and it’s USDJPY that will have a finite move at 108.11, while USDCHF that has a more rough target. However, with luck, we should see them both finding a low around the same area for a reversal back higher. Both have seen their Wave i and Wave ii, so we’re looking for the follow-through lower.

The more complicated set is EURUSD and GBPUSD due to the fact that they are forming a correction. At this point, we don’t know whether the recover will develop in a series of zigzags – or just one zigzag… If I’m to be bold (or stupid) I’d suggest a target area in EURUSD to reach the 1.1530 – 1.1560 area while GBPUSD could reach the 1.2970 to 1.3135 area.

That AUDUSD finally found its (brown) Wave -a-/-iii- implies a pullback along with EURUSD and GBPUSD. I’m not sure whether these three pairs will find a high at the same time – but the basic idea is that we have a rough and ready outlook.

As for EURJPY, we have found a temporary low but with the two sets of pairs generally being relatively correlated it tends to suggest a rather messy pullback higher…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, August 13, 2018

CLOSE TO A REVERSAL

Ouch… The correction I expected was nothing like the pullback I had envisaged… Instead, in EURUSD and GBPUSD the Dollar ploughed higher and basically almost completed the entire move rally. This tends to suggest limited gains from here on. Most likely we should see a pullback lower in the Dollar and later new high over – maybe today - or into tomorrow depending on how the market decides to react.

While all the rush and fever in EURUSD and GBPUSD, the other two majors quietly looked upon their brethren and forgot to react. USDJPY should see a minor follow-through and later a recovery. Equally, USDCHF should rather remain in a sideways move. The reasoning comes from the fact that EURUSD and GBPUSD appears to have limited Dollar upside and over the week a firmer correction. GBPUSD may well have completed its decline.

We may have seen the Aussie complete its Wave v but take care. Either we’ve seen the low – or will see limited follow through before the reversal higher. I also suspect that EURJPY has found a low for now and may well begin to see a ragged pullback higher…

Take care over these limited Dollar gains.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey