Friday, March 22, 2019

PLEASE NOTE THAT I SHALL BE ON A WEEK'S BREAK

I'LL BE BACK ON APRIL FOOL'S DAY...

REVERSAL AND REVERSAL AND REVERSAL

So… We may have seen the low in USDJPY after a zigzag lower but we may need to see a double zigzag. I say this because of the deep Wave iv in EURUSD that now needs to see a new high. As for USDCHF, well, it has its own way of developing and needs a final 3-wave decline but this pair can go SO slow that it could work. Once we have formed the final Dollar lows we can get back to the Dollar upside. Having said that, even then, we shall need the bullish foundation waves to develop before we can really get going on the larger daily Dollar rally. 

GBPUSD has decided to take its own journey. So far we have reached the 1.3003 and now looking to see a reversal lower. If there is any risk, then it could be a triangle. At the same time, having seen a bullish double zigzag, we still have the option on a triple three. Therefore, do take care.

With EURUSD looking to the upside and an uncertain USDJPY, we should see a pullback higher in a Wave ii.

Finally, the Aussie needs a pullback but has a limit at 0.7156 but I suspect this will not be broken…Thus, watch for bearish reversal indications.

I’ll be back on the 1stApril… (No kidding!)
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, March 21, 2019

REVERSAL AND REVERSAL

Everything was looking hunky dory and by the time I slept, it was still fine. Then, when I awoke around the early hours of the morning I had a shock. EURUSD was rocking higher, USDCHF lower – and also USDJPY. However, these three pairs have only seen the Wave iii but should see some modest pullbacks to then see a final low. Basically, EURUSD and USDCHF are seeing expanded flats and these need a pullback and then a new high.

In USDJPY, the 112.14 high was the (blue) Wave [a] and we have seen a Wave iii, potential Wave iv and then for a Wave v to complete the pullback in the Wave [b]/[iii].

Meanwhile, GBPUSD was the most placid pair. Perhaps it woke up after the other pairs had gone haywire. Maybe it was me that provided the sleeping tablet and woke up just after the other pairs had completed the Wave [iii]’s. There’s still a risk of a slightly deeper Wave b/iii but as long as it holds below 1.3300.

It looks as if we have formed a triple three in AUDUSD. I’d suggest providing a slightly high level but overall, we should be heading lower once again. 

EURJPY did see further gains as I had considered. We’ve either seen the high but I suspect just one more high to then see losses resume.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, March 20, 2019

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 0.9984



REVERSAL

Done and dusted. Well, I have some doubts over EURUSD but the 1.1385-93 area is possible and the 1.1404 is the limit. USDJPY has already begun the upside along with USDCHF. It looks most likely that GBPUSD is going to see losses – and over time I suspect it’s going back below the (blue) Wave [x]. Well, that will be the key level that will imply further losses.

So far, in USDJPY, we have seen the lower degree Wave i and Wave ii that will then build the Wave a/iii, Wave b/iii and onwards. EURUSD I feel has found a high – but note the comment above. USDCHF has reached a Wave a – having seen the final low while GBPUSD should be heading lower. 

I was puzzled with AUDUSD but then I spotted the lower degree Wave i and onwards to reach the Wave v – so even the Aussie appears to look for losses. However, having seen a double zigzag – and the slowness that this pair can see, I’d still be cautious of a triple three – but it ain’t gonna happen today I feel.

With EURUSD looking to the downside and USDJPY on the upside we’ll have a battle to see which pair makes the stronger move. I fancy the downside – but take care.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, March 19, 2019

WE STILL NEED CAUTION

We sure have seen some difficult development and I’m pretty certain that this may continue. Some pairs are in corrections while others are slowly going through impulsive development. I still feel that we are going through an expanded flat in EURUSD but – at some point – it’ll need a deeper pullback lower. USDJPY may now have formed the (blue) Wave -b-/-iii- although there is still some room below. It’s possible because USDCHF still needs limited downside now for a reversal higher. 

The biggest pain was in AUDUSD that broke above the limit I had set. It still has upside potential but by the end of this rally, we should turn lower. 

EURJPY is a tricky one. Perhaps we have seen a triple three but that will need a break below 126.12. Until that break, there is a chance of a 5-wave rally. Once that has been formed (or that 126.12 break) we’ll have a stronger decline.

Still, take care. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, March 18, 2019

A DIFFICULT START TO THE WEEK

Over the weekend I went through the analysis and it looks like a rather difficult start to the week. First of all, in GBPUSD, I took an alternative look at the structure from the 1.3000 low. Lo and behold, I used a limited Wave i and Wave ii and worked through to the 1.3385 high to complete a 5-wave rally to complete a double zigzag from the 1.2440 low – or a zigzag that could be a lower degree Wave i. It’s possible because EURUSD appears to be looking to complete a 5-wave rally and followed by a pullback and a final 5-wave rally to complete a triple three. The alternative is a potential expanded flat. 

Hence the heading being a difficult start to the week…

USDJPY has potential for a deeper Wave -b-/-iii- or a direct move up to the Wave -iii- and upwards. USDCHF is pretty much the same as USDJPY. It has potential for both sides of the market. 

In the down-under pair, it appears to have a more direct decline. 

As for the Cross, EURJPY has broken below the rising channel. With EURUSD potentially having two options, it’s rather difficult to judge the early stages. Equally, we have a possible limited pullback lower in USDJPY – or a direct rally as mentioned above. 

It looks like a tricky day. Take care.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey