Friday, July 20, 2018

MOSTLY DOLLAR BULLISH

Yesterday started out on the bullish side. Indeed, it lasted through to the early hours of my morning - just after midnight - and I thought all was well. When I awoke I was surprised with the deep pullback. This was a particularly annoying in EURUSD because I normally find the extreme pullbacks in an expanded flat to cap between the 38.2%-41.4%. Therefore, I had thought we'd then see losses. However, the expansion reached around 43%... Snafu...


So basically, we still need Dollar gains because the (purple) Wave (c) must break below 1.1509...

Of course, the other pairs suffered also, perhaps not quite so extreme. Other pairs saw losses but within a Wave i, Wave ii and Wave a and now looking at the Wave b/iii...

The other surprise was the break below 112.22 in USDJPY. That means it has formed a Wave i and needs a deepish correction - probably not too much today - and probably it may well see a slow pullback higher before losses. 

However, overall we should see a Dollar bullish day.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey



Thursday, July 19, 2018

IT LOOKS LIKE A COPY OF YESTERDAY…

Well, perhaps not quite. EURJPY shouldn’t see a new high. The downside is now the next move we should see. Having said that, with EURUSD basically bearish and USDJPY bullish, we could see some messy sideways moves over time. For today, the cross should see losses.  

USDJPY is now rather neutral. Yesterday saw the Wave -a-/-v- for a pullback. That gives us a puzzle as to whether the pullback will deepen before rising towards the Wave -c-/-v-. On the other side, EURUSD really doesn't have too much room on the upside and over the day we should see losses. 

GBPUSD is in the same position. It could see minor new highs but overall the decline still needs some modestly firm losses and there's still room to go. At some point, not too far lower, we'll see a low that will then trigger a deeper correction - but now today for sure. Indeed, USDCHF has little room on the downside but much stronger gains should be seen. At a later stage, USDCHF will form a Wave (a)/(iii) and thus will require a pullback in Wave (b). 

This just leaves the bottom of the world - the Aussie that still needs losses...

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Monday, July 16, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3102




LIMITED DOLLAR PULLBACK THEN BACK TO THE UPSIDE

Steady as she blows… Clearly, the North Americans saw that the Europeans really didn’t want to extend the Dollar upside and basically they decided to squeeze the market. However, this pullback is now pretty close to a reversal for the Asian session to drift as if in a cloud. We still need some minor Dollar losses in the early stages but it won’t take too long before the Dollar to re-track its losses and revert back to the Dollar upside.

I suspect USDJPY will be rather lackadaisical today although the counter-argument is that EURJPY needs further gains. We have seen the rising channel low hold but can it make a new high? The balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is rather fragile at this stage but – at some point – we shall need a new high. We may even see the rising channel break for a pullback and then a higher target. This suggests that we should wait and watch whether it breaks above the current high – or below the rising channel. 

Otherwise, the main pairs are pretty much balanced and in broad correlation.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, July 13, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



FIRST TARGET MET AT 112.37

SECOND TARGET MET THIS MORNING AT 112.82


ANOTHER DAY - FURTHER DOLLAR GAINS

We have seen some steady gains in the Dollar. There will be pullbacks – but we have some way to go in this particular leg and I suspect it will last through towards the end of next week – unless we get tied up in a sideways consolidation…

Today broadly suggests some decent Dollar gains. However, initially we shall need some minor swings to provide the foundation waves for the next higher degree rally. However, USDJPY may well be a rather stick-in-the-mud as it will need a modest pullback – and that could provide a pullback in EURJPY. The balance between these two is rather critical because once the cross tops out – and that should be pretty early on in the day. The cross still needs one more rally after the pullback and that’s the puzzle we need to solve. 

USDCHF needs a rally and then a deeper pullback. GBPUSD now appears to have suddenly realised that it has to move lower also – barring the pullbacks that will likely develop towards the end of the Asian session. 

That leaves the Aussie but this pair has options. It could see further pullbacks higher – or just direct losses. This makes life rather difficult to judge so take care.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, July 12, 2018

PULLBACK AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

Steady as she blows… We’re making steady gains in the Dollar but there’s more to come. The North American session ended and for the most part, we should see a pullback but that doesn’t appear to be consistent. Some pairs need a minor follow-through and others just a pullback. That should see the “follow-through” pairs make a new Dollar high and from there we should see all of the pairs seeing corrective Dollar losses. The pullbacks don’t appear to be massively deep so watch across the range of currency pairs and hopefully we’ll manage to see the Dollar arise once more. 

Therefore, by the European session, we should begin to see the Dollar rise once more but there could be some tricky little bits that could provide some frustrations. However, I’ve noted that the main $/currency pairs are now all above the (Dollar bullish) side of the Price Equilibrium Clouds. That is an encouraging indication in itself.

The only pig in the poke is EURJPY. I had thought we had found the high but yesterday saw yet another new high and I tend to feel that it may well need a minor new high. However, the signs from the hourly & 4-hour momentum indications suggest a reversal to the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey