Friday, June 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FIR USDJPY



110.50 AND 110.65 BOTH SEEN PRECISELY - THE HIGH AT 110.77



THE EARLY STAGES NEED CARE

Well, that wasn’t what I had expected… The early stages were pretty ok although I had expected deeper gains in the Dollar. I had my evening meal and just before laying my head on the pillow I saw these dirty great Dollar losses. The outcome is rather tense. I’d like to think that EURUSD has topped out but there is the risk of a push above 1.1646 for a reversal. 

This also screwed up GBPUSD. The adjustment I made looks kinda ok but I do have reservations. I certainly wouldn’t want a break above yesterday’s high… The Wave iv I have used was a 56% retracement so it doesn’t really have much room before a deep pullback.

This allowed a deeper pullback in USDCHF and USDJPY – but I caught the latter and knew we’d have to see a deep pullback. However, it’s rather close to the break level that would extend losses even further. This takes us to EURUSD. We shall either see an expanded flat; or… we’ve seen an expanded flat for direct losses… 

Meanwhile, the Aussie made a new low by 2 points. It was enough – and with hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences. How deep any pullback will be is totally unknown but I can’t really see losses at this stage…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 21, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7409


A MORE DIRECTIONAL DAY TODAY

Yesterday did see some directional development but there were a few pairs that really decided to have a nap. USDJPY was quite forthright in pushing higher. However, today should see the Dollar make some decent gains. Therefore, we should see AUDUSD make losses – but not off the bat. It does need a pullback before deeper losses. Equally, EURUSD began to lose its way with a sharp decline and then a deeper pullback – and that should now see those losses. USDCHF played the same game of up-a-bit, down-a-bit and snooze. However, it does now have the right outlook for a bullish move – perhaps even towards the 1.0056 high. 

GBPUSD completed a Wave a and then a pullback in Wave b. That sets the scene for deeper losses – and about time too. With EURUSD now embarking on the downside we should see EURJPY edging lower again. I suspect EURUSD will have a stronger move compared to USDJPY but there could be some consolidation on the way.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, June 20, 2018

WELL, THAT WAS A SURPRISE…

The Dollar actually managed to break above the recent highs… I looked at the Dollar Index and basically it has not yet satisfied alternation – and that’s actually quite a deep pullback. Now that we have seen further Dollar gains I suspect we’re going to see a shallower follow through and reversal. In EURUSD I suspect a stubbier Wave (c)/(i) and also USDCHF. Once they have formed these targets it will imply a deep Wave (ii). However, I can’t see this happening in GBPUSD. It now needs to complete the current decline – and that’s suggests deeper losses. Perhaps we shall see a consolidation at some point to let the others look for a pullback lower in the Dollar. 

I’m cautious in USDJPY – a potential expanded flat – but frankly, in the 5-min market, it doesn’t really have too much say to be honest so I’m still rather cautious in this pair. EURJPY is finely balanced and has choices on both sides of the current price. I’d suggest caution here today.

Finally, the Aussie needs to see a deeper pullback from the 0.7347 low before a new low.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 18, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1543




PULLBACK TO CONTINUE

Friday’s sharp move higher in the Dollar finally came to a halt to then develop a correction. I’m expecting to see a deeper pullback. However, there’s a limit. Forgetting USDJPY for the moment, EURUSD and USDCHF saw the Dollar rally in a 5-wave move. In GBPUSD, the decline was also a 5-wave move but compared to the other two Europeans, GBPUSD had completed a Wave a/iii. While we can’t say that these three will see their corrections develop in the same proportion, it does suggest that we’re not going to see an extreme pullback. 

Coming back to USDJPY, we’re going to have to watch the move. There’s room on the downside and even the potential for further gains. However, if I have my own way then I’d guess that we’ll see a correction lower before the next push higher develops. 

In EURJPY, I could see the potential for the EURUSD/USDCHF vs GBPUSD to form a corrective development. So far we have seen a completed zigzag followed by a Wave -x-, a Wave -a- and this morning’s dip in a Wave -b-. Therefore we’ll be due a Wave -c- but we haven’t enough information to generate any targets. However, once that has been seen, it will be interesting to note the final zigzag in a triple three. This would tend to suggest that it may find a rough cap for Dollar gains to resume.

The Aussie? Swings – bearish ones… but relatively limited.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey