Friday, June 15, 2018

PULLBACKS

The expected losses in the Dollar mainly developed well. That EURUSD actually made a new high was a bit of a surprise although in GBPUSD managed to reach the 1.3447 level – and that’s when all hell let loose. Attempting to judge that decline was not an easy matter although – as far as I have seen, we’ve found some Dollar highs. That the decline developed in a 5-wave move, it tends to suggest a modest pullback higher at the very least. It could even be higher.

USDJPY dithered, probably giddy with EURUSD and GBPUSD development and basically the Japanese currency merely attempted to do very little. This tends to suggest a new low today while EURUSD and GBPUSD see their pullbacks. The weirdest structure was USDCHF, pushing to a new high, then a new low, basically developing an expanding triangle. Once that was complete the Swissie managed to put flame to the to upside. It may just make a minor new high before a reversal. 

The Aussie should now see losses towards the Wave iii.

After a rather trying development in EURJPY – that did make a minor new high – EURUSD jumped on a piggyback for sharp losses to form a Wave (a). Hey, guess what? We’ll need a pullback first before any further losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, June 13, 2018

AND THE MARKET CHOSE TO BREAK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

I can’t say it was a marvellous day. However, I wasn’t really expecting a grand rush. Yesterday I mentioned the Price Equilibrium Clouds and looking for a break to the Dollar upside. USDJPY, EURUSD and AUDUSD broke through the Clouds to push higher in the Dollar. USDCHF was rather reticent and basically provided a sideways move but still without breaking below the 4-hour Cloud low. Equally, GBPUSD decided to follow the Swissie’s sideways move. AUDUSD is struggling a bit but should see that it’s lagging and I’m pretty certain that it’ll break below both hourly & 4-hour Clouds. 

Basically, the outcome should be Dollar bullish again today but will have some initial swings – not really a surprise in the Asian centre. By the European session the Dollar upside risk will grow and push into the North American session. 

If possible, just ride the Asian session and look for decent signs of any pullback to buy into. I suspect by the end of the day that we’ll be looking a little more bullish…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, June 11, 2018

FRIDAY'S (ALTERNATIVE) FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.1727


BEST STILL TAKE CARE


I spent quite some time over the weekend resolving EURUSD in particular. I created what I had thought was a great solution. However, when writing the beginning of the report I realised that there was still an error. However, when I look at the range of pairs I still get the perception that they are looking to still push higher in the Dollar. 

Even if I have made a mistake, frankly the relatively shallow pullback could be considered enough because we do still need deeper losses overtime. Therefore, I’m still (more cautiously) looking for Dollar gains but this does make GBPUSD rather uncertain - but still bearish. 

There is room for a pullback but it’s not going to be too deep. Therefore, it’s a rather difficult outcome to judge at this point. 

As for the Aussie, we saw quite a decent decline on Friday to form a Wave [i] but how deep will the Wave [ii] be? That’s just another puzzle to work out…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  





Friday, June 8, 2018

A CAUTIOUS START

When EURUSD broke higher, ignoring my expectation, it created a massive problem. From 01:15 when I arose from my slumber, I have been trying to resolve the structures – both lower degree and daily. I came up with two options although I’ve still to ratify the structures. Of course, I have the other pairs that also provide information. For EURUSD, I have a daily chart that needs confirmation but appears to be in line with the other pairs – while the hourly decline from 1.2413 to 1.1510 is yet not clarified at all (despite lots of attempts.)

However, feel that even if we have seen a new low in USDCHF, I feel that I’ve resolved the issue and thus yesterday’s low should be the final low. At the same time, in GBPUSD, I hadn’t expected a break above 1.3444 to reach 1.3472, that was a possible target a couple of days ago. I have also found an alternative for USDJPY. It does have some minor risk of a deeper pullback but with USDCHF having been ratified I suspect we’ll see direct gains. 

So… overall, while rather cautious, I feel we’re going to see the Dollar gains I expected a few days ago… 

That EURJPY has seen the Wave b/iii at the 84% retracement, while there is a little more room that could be used, the solid hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences are really suggesting losses. Well, it’s not USDJPY that’s going to fuel that – so it’s down to a bearish EURUSD. 

As for AUDUSD, I’d really like to suggest that we have seen the final high but I’m not particularly confident. However, a break below 0.7594 will signal losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, June 7, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3444



A MISCHEVIOUS GREMLIN

USDJPY and USDCHF did their best to provide the Dollar gains. While USDJPY managed to make slow but steady gains, USDCHF decided to continue to ride in a roller coaster but managed to remain above the 0.9826 low. 

Then came the Gremlin… EURUSD broke above 1.1762. So that provided me with a Sudoku problem but which has been resolved. Indeed, it has actually provided the solution for the stronger outlook – but on the downside. At the same time, GBPUSD reached the target areas I had been looking for.

Now we can swat the Gremlin… 

The Aussie appears to need just a little more on the upside before resuming the downtrend. Equally, with EURUSD pushing higher – along with USDJPY – we have moved to a rather deep pullback. 

This is the time for Dollar gains once more – but equally across all Dollar pairs…

Good trading
Ian Copsey