Thursday, April 19, 2018

THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A DOLLAR BEARISH DAY

We’re coming to a point where there is some risk on the Dollar upside but if there is any, it should be limited. Looking through the pairs in general, the major expectation is for a reversal towards the Dollar downside. There’s a fine balance between the two at the start of the day but as we get to the European and North American sessions I suspect we’ll be back on the Dollar bullish road. Initially, there may even be the chance of a triangle/consolidation before the Dollar makes its way back to the upside. 

Can this finish the rally today? I’m not so sure. Maybe - but this market has been rather introverted for some while. It has been used to the Dollar downside over the past year or so and doesn’t seem to want to give up the idea of a stronger Dollar. I’ve clearly been too direct in my approach because I know where the Dollar is going. It has frustrated but before long there will be a stronger switch to the upside and I sense it will begin next week. 

AUDUSD clearly has a super slim margin on the upside but as long as things stand, we should begin to see a deeper round of losses. 

EURJPY? Well, it’ll either push above 132.97 for a minor follow-through and reversal – or it will break below 132.10…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, April 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 106.88




A DETOUR

Yesterday’s Dollar maintained the Dollar losses – although with a deep pullback. However, this move still needs further follow-through before we can see a reversal. For example, USDJPY has been steadily developing bearish corrective developments and still needs a follow-through to complete the third Wave -a-, a pullback and then a final 5-wave decline. Equally, EURUSD still has upside to develop while its neighbour in Switzerland should see a minor follow-through on the upside for a pullback lower. This should therefore suggest a 3-wave rally in GBPUSD. 

How long will it take? Well, I doubt we’ll see the completion today but perhaps tomorrow may find the final legs – but I’ll take it as it comes. There is one possible problem in GBPUSD. The ideal would be for a deeper pullback that we saw yesterday. However, since the Wave (b)/(iii) was very deep, it has satisfied alternation so it does have the potential for a more direct move to its high. 

AUDUSD? Well, I discovered an error in the development and this brings it forward. Of course, with the typical walkabout in Aussie land, we could still see some consolidation in the middle leg. However, basically we need to map out that 3-wave leg.

Keep things steady. By tomorrow end (most likely) we should begin to see the Dollar gains I have been waiting for. I note that there’s still downside room in the Dollar Index…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, April 17, 2018

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

My goodness, that was a slow day, meandering through the higher altitudes in GBPUSD and EURUSD with the deprivation thin air making the market rather light headed. Even now, 24 hours later, GBPUSD has approached the 1.43442 high within a slim whisker. That was the precise 58.6% but Wave (iv)’s can produce a little more and there is a daily bearish divergence.

So, within a slim range, we are beginning to see several pairs beginning to wilt. AUDUSD is one of them that should soon turn lower having developed an expanded flat. EURUSD appears to have topped out – a break below 1.2362 would confirm. At the same time, USDCHF also saw deeper (Dollar) losses but could see another dip along with USDJPY. 

Watch carefully in AUDUSD and once this finds its high we should begin to see a firmer Dollar resuming…

All this tends to suggest a slow start to today’s session in Asia so we’re likely to see some neutral, insipid trading before the European session. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 16, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.4296


EARLY PULLBACK AND LATER FOLLOW-THROUGH

Friday saw the Dollar lows as expected and from there, a modest push higher in the Dollar. There’s a good chance that we’ll see a correction early in the Asian session but then should look more to the Dollar upside. As mentioned on Friday, I feel that GBPUSD has completed its pullback and should now run with the same outlook in EURUSD and USDCHF. 

If I have any problem, it’s in USDJPY. It actually saw the highs I expected but there’s no sign of a bearish divergence – in the hourly or 4-hour time frame. I’m therefore wary of there being a very, very shallow Wave (b)… This pair will need some care. However, within EURUSD and USDCHF, there’s very little wriggle room on the Dollar downside and more likely a direct rally. This could drag GBPUSD and possibly USDJPY also…

IF there are to be any problems, it does still stem from USDJPY. We saw the expected highs in EURJPY and therefore the outlook should be bearish in the cross. That will require EURUSD to be stronger (on the downside) compared to USDJPY.

Equally, in AUDUSD I noted a slight adjustment in the bearish structure. This triggered gains above 0.7799 but with the prior development, I had made an error in the early stages. This has now been corrected but will now suggest the losses I have been expecting. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey 






Friday, April 13, 2018

TODAY SHOULD SET UP THE NEXT STRONGER TREND

When you know where the Dollar is going over the coming months, it’s difficult to think that we can see so many Dollar bearish pullbacks. However, as far as I can see, after today I feel that we’ll finally get to begin the next – firmer – gains in the Dollar. Today should set this reversal back to the Dollar upside. In the process of the reversal it still needs a bullish Dollar but hopefully, it will then pull the trigger. 

Yesterday’s losses in EURUSD were constructive but now needs to see a pullback higher. At the same time we have seen firmer gains in USDJPY – and with these two combined it should lead EURJPY to a new high. Once that is done, we’ll be looking more towards the Dollar to take up the reigns. Even then, we’ll need to establish the foundation waves and the potential for a high in USDJPY for a correction lower. So, it looks like quite a mixed bag across the pairs over the coming week.

Even GBPUSD has pushed higher and appears to need a new high. It was not expected but from the 1.4344 high, I missed a rather ragged and untidy deep Wave b/iii in the process – and it was that which has caused some problems. Once we have seen the high in GBPUSD we should turn back to the downside. 

The Aussie may well have seen its final high but we may need a final new corrective high – and very close to the extreme. It’s touch and go between a deeper pullback (but not too deep) or just direct losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey