Interesting moves yesterday. This seems to suggest
interesting moves today also. Let’s start with EURUSD. Good move and to within
4 points of the low of my targeted retracement area. Thus, the uptrend should
resume… but… first the resumption has been a bit weird but secondly it doesn’t
really have a fly away target and once it gets to that target we shall be due a
deeper correction. With the exception of the weird start the outlook appears
quite straight-forward.
So… as EURUSD began to recover GBPUSD followed suit
but then ran into trouble with the carpet taken away beneath its feet and
collapsed to a new low. Interesting… It’s due a modest pullback but then a new
low from where another, probably deeper correction is due, but make no mistake,
this pair is now pretty bearish and once EURUSD reaches its next upside target
we can expect the two to return to correlation.
What about USDCHF? It looks like Swiss traders were
off for the day for a ski trip. The problem I have with this dropping to new
lows is that, with the current structure, it would look more like diving down a
ski-jump but without much elevation at launch. At this point the downside is
just too bearish to really feel it’s going to happen yet. Corrective losses?
Probably… but I feel we need to move a bit higher before a break of 0.9021.
It’s just the bit in-between that we need navigate first.
The Aussie? Threatens to go down. The chart is full of
noise as normal and that makes it much tougher to judge and I still prefer to
take a short-term view rather than long… At this point it’s best to react to
breaks but I’m not convinced that it’ll be worth keeping the position.
Then USDJPY… The correction was quite deep but just
held above the right area before rallying quite strongly. The problem I have is
that the next target seems to be not too far above current levels and it still
needs to see a correction and then follow-through. Thus, I suspect either that
we shall see a deep correction before reaching target… or… I’m wrong. Thus,
take this pair with care. However, the interesting point is that EURJPY appears
to be in a similar position. Let’s see how well they work in tandem.
Good trading
Ian Copsey
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