Wednesday, January 30, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD


BIAS: While 1.3460 holds I still favour extension to 1.3520-30 and potentially 1.3546-56 at least

Resistance: 1.3496 1.3520-30 1.3545-56 1.3576
Support: 1.3461 1.3440-45 1.3413 1.3382-92

MAIN ANALYSIS: I am not 100% comfortable with price at the moment as it appears to be alone in its bullish structure compared to CHF and GBP. However, currently momentum still seems positive and I therefore tend to remain bullish but watching how this develops. The ideal should be for price to break above 1.3496 to reach 1.3520-30 at least. How deep the pullback from this area manages to reach (and I estimate around 1.3496-00) will be important. Assuming the 1.3496-00 area supports I would then look for extension to the 1.3545-55 area and max 1.3576. I'd look for a pullback from there. (Given the uncertainty I'd suggest confirming trades with solid trade set ups.)

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any earlier break below 1.3461 would break the current bullish structure and return price back lower noting the 1.3440-45 area and yesterday's 1.3413 low. There is also modest support at 1.3382-92 and only below there would provoke deeper losses to 1.3220-25.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
29th January: As described in yesterday's video there is a lot of conflict between the Europeans. For the moment we can take this step by step and with the rising 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud nudging price from below we should see follow-through to 1.3549-85 at least... possibly 1.3605. However, that should trigger a correction lower. We shall now need the 1.3585-06 area to be broken to see gains extend to the next projection areas at 1.3692-96. The 1.3400-25 area appears supportive while that additional rally can be seen.

A break below 1.3424 directly would undermine the bullish structure sooner and thus signal losses back to the 1.3256-64 lows and potentially 1.3140...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

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