Friday, October 9, 2015


BIAS: Having re-assessed the bearish structure it looks like we'll see a high soon and thus watch for losses to resume

Resistance: 1.5371 1.5391-00 1.5413-36 1.5458
Support: 1.5318 1.5295-00 1.5240-61 1.5210-20

MAIN ANALYSIS: Although price broke above 1.5350-56 the 1.5372 projection was met - less 1 point... From where we have seen a drop to 1.5261 that I felt was in 5-waves. Thus, as long as 1.5371 caps we will have a double top that should see losses back below 1.5261 and down to the 1.5140-50 area (at least) being the double top target... Below is the 1.5136 and 1.5106 low.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break back above 1.5371 would concern… As an outlier - there is resistance at 1.5395-00.

18th September:  While the correction has been deeper than I would have liked, it doesn't change the bearish impulsive targets. Yesterday's 1.5627 high merely implies a slightly stronger projection ratio to reach the downside impulsive target range at 1.4627 - 1.4759 (probably closer to the higher)

9th October:  The larger structure, having been adjusted, should now see losses and as long as we see the double top satisfied. However, we shall need a break below 1.5106 to confirm...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Evidence destroyed

It was a bit like one of those movies where the two main characters have endured trials and anguish to finally escape from the clutches of their captors – only to find the woman trips and sprains her ankle. Her gallant partner reaches back to save her from the on rushing aggressors but they get caught again…

Six months. Really. Six months EURUSD has remained in a range. Enough already! Just as I thought we could make a break and finally see a trend, the market loses its nerve… To be honest I think… and hope… that this is just a temporary glitch while the ankle improves but from what I see it’s not going to be a one-day fix. Indeed, it could extend into mid-next week.

If there’s any good news, then it’s that the Dollar should rally today but given the propensity for the market to make a mountain out of an ant hill, there’s a risk that some legs are going to be deathly slow and complicated.

One positive was that GBPUSD topped out at the higher target (less one point) while the other positive failed to happen… Even AUDUSD managed to push higher and that’s suggesting a potential minor new corrective high – but whether that occurs directly or not is another puzzle to solve.

USDJPY remained subdued and EURJPY bounced one way and then the other without really getting anywhere. It tends to suggest the triangle scenario has failed and therefore we’re likely to see a break. However, the upside in the cross appears limited but, of course, it depends on which of EURUSD or USDJPY moves faster…

Probably a dull end to a dull week…

Have a great long weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Constructive evidence

It may not have been an exciting day yesterday, for the most part the market remained fairly steady to sideways with the exception of AUDUSD and to a certain extent GBPUSD. That may not sound like a constructive day but we need these to form the base for further directional moves. While that foundation hasn’t really made any technical breaks – and that means we still have to proceed with caution – as long as we get the right break we should begin to see a stronger trend developing.

This should provide the outcome I have been waiting for since quite some time, having been frustrated on several occasions – but maybe it’s best to actually see that confirmation because the market has been in the habit of fighting shy of actually generating a trend.

Where we have seen some veering away from the path I had expected – in EURJPY and AUDUSD – we need to establish alternatives. This appears set to begin in AUDUSD that pressed above the resistance areas I had expected would cap but has two options now – and I suspect there’s a strong risk of the larger consolidation developing. This does end to make sense in terms of the fact that it is in a terminal stage of a larger bearish structure while the Europeans are mid-way.

In EURJPY there are two options as well – one being a new high and the other being a short-term range trading scenario. Probably the former would suit the outcome in EURUSD. Some care is required here. That USDJPY remains with a steady, but pretty slow development, should continue but there is still risk of a minor new low before it extends its rally.

Watch the key points today and be prepared to jump on the back of a directional move.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Of cabbages and kinks

All is looking good, I thought as I laid my head on the pillow last night. Actually, EURUSD and USDCHF have done nothing wrong. In fact, currently they look just fine and dandy. Then I moved on to GBPUSD and AUDUSD… the lands of black pudding and witchetty grubs… Not so fine and dandy… This has placed me in a quandary. We now have, what appears to be, a rather difficult conflict. Maybe they can diverge but it sure makes for uncertainty.

Let’s just start by confirming the very satisfactory development in the two Continental Europeans. The two have worked well together and as long as we begin to see the Dollar resume higher, should now satisfy my outlook. However, given the confusion over the Commonwealth parties it may be prudent to keep an eye on the Continentals to ensure their outcome actually develops…

Even in the Commonwealth parties there is a rather strange disconnection – limited upside for AUDUSD and more substantial room on the upside in GBPUSD. Best work with AUDUSD that has a more defined outcome – I think – but with GBPUSD there are more doubts and it may be best to now sit out and wait for a clear structure developing.

USDJPY didn’t do anything much wrong either but still just a little bit wrong… This could allow some neutral development to occur – some downside risk but should later generate upside. Being in the middle of the range it would be better to wait for the extremes. As for EURJPY, the pullback higher looks good except in terms of fitting this into the larger degree wave structure. There is a potential problem here too – and therefore it would be best to let price make up its own mind – could even make a marginal new high.

Take care today – best employ the two Continental Europeans that seem to have a solid structure…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, October 6, 2015


6th October:

Another frustrating recovery but which has still remained below the prior Wave -iv- at 0.7482 and thus we should now see losses in Wave -c- / -v- that must reach a daily Wave (iii) projection at the 461.8% projection at least - at 0.6893 but could stall anywhere between the 461.8% - 498.4% projection - the lower being at 0.6744. 

The only uncertainty is where the Wave i and Wave ii will stall - and this also means I cannot generate Wave iii targets yet...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Getting closer…

Yesterday was a pretty decent day. While we didn’t get the marginal follow-through at the opening, the rest of the day went pretty well. This has been part of the foundation stage I mentioned yesterday but it isn’t yet complete. So, that’s the task we need set ourselves to identify the completion. Once that is done we can begin to increase position sizes for a more directional move. I can see the balance through the Europeans and also AUDUSD in this respect so it looks like an eventual coming together in a correlation move in the anticipated trend.

If there is any possible break of correlation, it may be from GBPUSD. It has mapped out a cobweb of trails over the past 10 days or so – with a lack of energy or thrust. To be honest, I can’t see that changing too much over the rest of this week and potentially into next. It will involve new extremes but not by large margins. This should retain the cobweb for a relatively long period of time until the consolidation finally ends. So for quick trades it’ll be decent but don’t expect a home run…

In the JPY pairs we saw both extend gains but with less thrust compared to the reversal from Friday’s low. USDJPY has a rather difficult structure with plenty of lower degree noise that makes it tough to judge the correct foundation waves. However, it is tending to display signs of a lacklustre development, moving slowly, rather like a lumbering sloth. It seems to be broadly correlated with the Europeans in general – but without as much energy. This should imply that EURJPY will be more reactive to the development in EURUSD. Thus, watch out for that expectation.

An initially slow day but could pick up in the second half.

Good trading

Ian Copsey