Monday, August 29, 2016


BIAS:     We should see the 0.7515-25 area support for gains

Resistance: 0.7550-65 0.7586-02 0.7630-35 0.7655-60
Support: 0.7515-25 0.7485-93 0.7455 0.7420

MAIN ANALYSIS:    It was the downside - that broke below 0.7601 and 0.7588 to reach the 0.7545 - 70 area and actually to 0.7525. Allow for 0.7515. This should be the low for gains to resume. Take care initially at 0.7550-65 that should provide resistance for a while - and later move up to 0.7586-02. Once that area breaks we should see firmer gains.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    A break below 0.7510-15 would surprise. I'd prefer to remain neutral with the generally expected Dollar weakness more likely to form some base - but this would surprise. However, note the 0.7420-55 area that should provide support - even if temporarily...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thrifty Thursday, Freaky Friday

You gotta love the market. The last two days of last week were in stark contrast - boredom versus frenetic. It wasn’t the exact pattern I had expected and has caused some minor changes, particularly in USDCHF, but in terms of the bigger picture it hasn’t really changed things except for the diversion we have seen. It just makes things a little more complicated in terms of correlations – particularly in the Europeans. From that perspective, I’d prefer to see confirmations of my expectations over today to ensure that I’ve interpreted this twist correctly. Basically, I can’t see that we shall see rabid Dollar gains today.

This is much the same with AUDUSD that followed the European template – a deeper pullback and then a panic at the end of the day. Like the Europeans, it hasn’t changed the structure at all – just the deeper initial recovery but then the losses I had been looking for. So basically, it looks like the Aussie and Europeans are basically correlated.

Now, where there has been change is in the JPY pairs. For the past week I had been very cautious about both pairs. I had/have my final outcome in mind but was uncertain of whether we had seen the lows in USDJPY in particular. In some ways, we haven’t yet really seen confirmation but I’m pretty certain of what is now happening. However, in EURJPY that had been fussing around a bit and causing some ambiguity, Friday’s push higher has changed things a bit. It has certainly broken the structure I had been considering but this just changes this into an alternative corrective pattern. This tends to resonate across the Europeans and with USDJPY also but suggests continued complications in the cross that should last for a week or two at least.

I can’t see Friday’s Dollar gains begin excessive today.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, August 26, 2016

Busy going nowhere…

Gee, we could have taken the day off yesterday. Dull… but then it’s still August. I am expecting things to hot up a bit more, not particularly immediately but at some point in September. However, today I can’t see a similar day to yesterday. In fact, in some ways, the fact yesterday was flat really made the analysis easy today … because nothing has really changed. Yes, it wasn’t what I had wanted but did know there was the risk of deeper pullbacks – and that was what we saw yesterday.

If there are any doubts in my mind it will be because of the apparent degree of movement required across the pairs. First things first, the key pair that can provide a key barrier is in USDCHF, as I have been mentioning. This still needs some Dollar bullish development and we’re going to have to watch all three Europeans achieve their targets. Once that is done we can see a more constructive development.

This same outlook is relevant in AUDUSD also. It doesn’t have a pretty structure but it is valid. Obviously we need take care of the key break points, but as long as the above is correct we should see the outcome I have been expecting.

As for USDJPY… well, it shot up in early trading yesterday, making me feel we should see the next move … but then it seemed to find itself lost in a maze. There’s no real break of my scenario but it certainly doesn’t have much room before the structure breaks. On top of that, with USDJPY appearing to be working in opposition to the Europeans, it gives me a headache in EURJPY. Frankly, I think we need to sit back and watch these two pairs and wait for it to commit to one direction or another… Once that occurs we should be able to move on from there…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Consistency across the pairs

The heading is basically correct – I think at least … but there is one outlier in GBPUSD that could buck the trend – or I may have screwed something up.

I had some doubts yesterday morning – mostly because, when I started in the morning there were chances of Dollar losses although I knew we could see direct Dollar gains. Very clearly, the Dollar did make a direct move higher so all was well. That GBPUSD chose to buck that trend was the surprise package. In some respects there is a similar conflict at the start of the today - but pretty much the same as yesterday. I have some rough targets I am looking for but there’s one pair – USDCHF where I can identify a more accurate stalling point. I’d suggest that you keep that target in mind, as it’s very likely that the other pairs will stall around the same time.

I’m also quite intrigued how the U.S. indices have managed to correlate with the Dollar and I can see this continuing over the coming week. This coming week-10 days does appear to be promising some coordinated moves in both the Dollar and the indices.

As I have described the Europeans, the Aussie has joined the European bunch in a similar outcome. I’m not sure whether the barrier in USDCHF will mean much to the Aussie, but if you can read the wave structure – even match potential similar momentum patterns, this could help the process of identifying stalling points…

USDJPY performed really well too – but not quite in EURJPY. It’s the cross that has some uncertainty and I’d suggest standing back while the other pairs develop. For USDJPY, the perfect development does point to the targets I indicated yesterday. Thus, keep track there as I feel this could be a key day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, August 24, 2016


BIAS:     We should be focusing on the downside today

Resistance: 1.3209-14 1.3234-48 1.3275-80 1.3300-05
Support: 1.3170-75 1.3145-50 1.3120 1.3100-05

MAIN ANALYSIS:   While the 1.3170-75 support holds there may be an argument for a minor new high between 1.3209-24. However, I have my doubts. That there is limited upside suggests we should not be looking for strong gains. A break below 1.3170-75 would signal losses down to 1.3120 at least - potentially as deep as 1.3100-05 or 1.3080-85. We should be looking for bullish reversal indications that will eventually take us to around 1.3324 at least.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:     A direct break below 1.3022 - and allow for 1.2990-00 - would surprise and suggest stronger losses below 1.2973 and below…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Be wary today

 There appears to be something afoot… something not quite right. I can’t say yesterday was exactly as planned. It started off quite well but then the general balance between the pairs began to creak at the edges. While the Dollar dipped lower for much of the day, as I had been looking for, it tailed off by the end of the day. That has left USDCHF lagging well behind EURUSD in terms of direction and has begun to sniff out the 0.9648 high with the 0.9656 high only half a sniff higher. Thus, when EURUSD failed to make a new high it begins to put doubts in my mind. Equally, when considering the Europeans as a group, GBPUSD has also begun to struggle. There may be some further Dollar slippage with reversal indications not really very strong but, as I mentioned, I feel a little wary of committing to a firm outlook today.

Even the Aussie has a duality to it. Yesterday’s recovery was particularly ambiguous. I wanted to call it as an impulsive rally but there were too many twists and turns to be absolutely certain of this. This either means we’ll see a correction lower and followed by a second rally – or direct losses. It’s actually difficult to be certain of which will occur. Thus, don’t over-do the position size until there is a stronger signal.

Guess what? USDJPY is also ambiguous… However, even if it sees a break below yesterday’s low, it won’t be by much and more likely we’ll see gains develop. Then we’ll need to work with a vague EURJPY. I have been expecting a break above 114.02 but the market appears to have a slight reluctance to push higher. I think this may provide some gains but it very much depends on how strongly EURUSD will perform.

In summary, it’s not an easy outlook today. I’m pretty certain of the larger picture but today could provoke some messy surprises…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Steady trading

 Getting back after a break always takes time but I was mostly comfortable with yesterday’s analysis. There are still some blind spots where I have doubts but for the most part I am quite content with the outcome.

Covering the Europeans first, I was very happy with the outcomes and frankly the analysis I provided yesterday still very much applies to today. Perhaps there could be a few small snags but overall the outlook appears stable. If there is any concern, it could be in USDCHF but I’d still suggest that the directional bias outlined remains the same – it’s just a matter of whether we see a shortfall today or the outcome I had expected. I still tend to go with yesterday’s outlook but do take care.

This keeps EURUSD and GBPUSD on track. I don’t expect a strong follow-through today but there should be some but coming to the ending phase there is risk of complications should there be complex corrections standing in the way.

AUDUSD… well, I hadn’t expected much yesterday and it exceeded in proving me right apart from the deeper pullback than expected. Otherwise there’s no great change here and tends to follow the same template as the Europeans.

USDJPY… this was the one that failed and from the reversal from yesterday’s high there’s every risk of further complications. I’d suggest skipping this pair for today until there is a stronger structure that emerges. That EURJPY failed to follow-through on the upside was disappointing but there is still a chance that yesterday’s analysis will still develop. It tends to suggest a rather static USDJPY. It will be well to understand the implications of certain levels that would trigger follow-through.

I suspect a steady day, perhaps with some complications again today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey