Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Correction completed – or not?

I can’t say I’m too surprised with yesterday’s long and winding and twisting and wonky road that may have – or may not have – led to a door but could also be a portal to yet more of the same…

My own expectation is for more. If so, then we’ll see the boundaries widen to further horizons. Hence, this is the basic outlook I have for today.

But, however, nonetheless and on the other hand there are two pairs that have a slightly different position – USDJPY and AUDUSD. The former surprised with its strength. It has the potential to follow-through but there is a key level that could stall the upside and see a recycling. Therefore, take note of the magic portal that would take it into the blue sky. This is going to be important for EURJPY also because it could change the outlook in the cross. Approach this with care.

In the Aussie, the pullback higher was perfect and the next target I mentioned yesterday remains intact. While the current decline is part of a directional move, the risk is kinda similar to a consolidation since it tends to argue for a two-way day.

So all-in-all the risk appears to be for a narrow range day in general. Best keep trades to the short term

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, October 24, 2016

Time for a correction?

Friday provided a decent rally in the Dollar in general, right across the main Dollar-Currency pairs with the exception of USDJPY, which did actually baulk that trend but did comply with my demand that it didn’t break above 104.20. We have a gamut of Dollar bearish divergences – although AUDUSD was excluded. This tends to suggest we are likely to see a pullback overall and therefore we’re looking for how deep these may probe. The problem with these is the general lack of correlation in terms of depth.

Therefore, we’re going to have to treat each pair individually rather than look for a standard retracement. More than that, we shall need to observe as to whether any or all pairs could also develop in one of the six complex correction patterns. Thus, while the term “correction” is an easy description, the bigger task for us is to recognise the structure that develops in each pair. That there are six structures, many of which can generate corrections within the corrective structure this could prove to be a tough day. If we get away with a simple zigzag it would be the ideal.

Thus, tread carefully and take care today.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, October 21, 2016


BIAS:      I am in one mind - bearish

Resistance: 1.2274 1.2297 1.2331 1.2345-50
Support: 1.2244 1.2197-09 1.2174 1.2135-45

MAIN ANALYSIS:    After all the bother trying to work with alternatives, yesterday's losses (along with EURUSD) were far too much to bring price back from the dead. I can't even see any potential for a break above 1.2274 and therefore we should see direct losses initially down to 1.2197-09 and then towards 1.2135-45 (I suspect.) Overall, this move lower should extend down to 1.2087 and to an eventual 1.2015-33 area.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:      The upside probably has no chance - but if I'm wrong and there's a move above 1.2280 - I'd still be cautious but would remain neutral until there are bearish reversal indications.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

All clear for take off

I’m not sure how to describe yesterday’s moves. Well, positive I guess – in the final outcome. The EU whips were just collateral damage. It should therefore mean that we can begin to look forward to a more directional wave – or “waves” that should take us out of the long misery of the “year of the long knives.” However, as always, there’s work to be done and checks to be err… checked particularly pre-European open where the Asian day can provide a reprieve from the sharp whiplashes.

What is clear now is that the Dollar can make its case for the upside so it’s just a matter of identify the entry levels and follow the lower degree development to confirm the higher degree development (and if you haven’t downloaded the spreadsheet from my website, please feel free and begin to work with the wave degrees) and then Bob’s your Uncle.

All three Europeans should basically be correlated and should be straightforward.  This may include the Aussie should it tip below this morning’s low. Otherwise, until then, there is a mild risk for a minor new high.

After a few days of trying to cope with USDJPY I feel I may have resolved the structure. It needs ratification, as always when there has been an uncomfortable series of complications, but I’m beginning to feel that we’re going to see the downside develop – and that will have implications for EURJPY - that could provide the best carrier of all pairs.

Hopefully, we’ll see a good move later to complete a more satisfactory, although tough, week

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, October 20, 2016

I’m still waiting…

Just to confirm, that’s not a reference to Diana Ross…

This week has been really disappointing. There is so much more to come but the trigger hasn’t been …errr… triggered. The market has been in such trauma over the past year that it appears to be under the influence of black magic (and here I am not talking about the chocolates…) Trends? Are they a mere figment of the imagination?

Indeed, they are not and we are on the brink of one but this week has caused some frustration. Just take the leap!  Well, I’m not sure that’s possible today and perhaps not until next week – but it’s coming…

Having looked at some of these recent moves, I cannot be confident of that breakout just yet. There is yet still risk of further complications, range trading, recycling and various other ruses that will allow the market not to commit to a trend. However, it will be prudent to maintain a focus on the market and the potential for that breakout to finally develop.

That USDJPY dropped below 103.32 and AUDUSD above 0.7709 just added to the problems – pushing the market into neutral areas. That EURUSD reached the 1.0955 level was just another (potential) complication which needs to be attended to.

So basically, we are still stuck, still need some additional consolidation and therefore need to be patient to be able to identify a common trigger throughout the pairs…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Waiting for the breakout

Gee, the market is cagey – and definitely appears tricky. However, it has made a statement in EURUSD and that’s going to provide the outcome I have been looking for. What I am uncertain of is just when the break will be seen. We have the major pairs complete a key wave and now we’re waiting for the pullback and follow-through. That is going to be the key element to identify today. Just as an aside, it was quite interesting seeing EURUSD whip back down to its lows while GBPUSD remained firm to maintain its rally. I actually see GBPUSD as a potential general signal for the next move – at least in the European pairs.

Of all, I feel that USDJPY could provide the first thrust. Even then, it is in a tricky situation. We could see breaks and then reversal, only to see the reversal reversed. Hence, there is a slightly delicate process to go through to finally confirm the next directional move. Once it does confirm its next move we should see some solid follow-through. That is actually echoed in the Europeans also…

Of all the pairs, it was AUDUSD that spoiled the fun with its additional push higher. To be honest, it wasn’t an excessive break that it saw but does change the larger structure – but it’s one that tends to point to the expectations in the Europeans in both direction and extent. Therefore, in many ways, with all major pairs preparing for a decent trending move, the fact that all point to strong follow-through is comforting confirmation of correlation.

How this will play out in EURJPY is a little less clear. It completed its triangle and should now move on. However, in the position it is in, the potential for a strong follow-through is less likely. I do see losses but at some point there will be need for a pullback. So for now it’s best to follow the trend but be aware that it will lag in forcefulness compared to the individual pairs…

Good trading
Ian Copsey