Friday, January 30, 2015

Stagnation

I mentioned a couple of days ago that because we are in a corrective phase there would be risk of complications setting in. Well, it has happened earlier than I had bargained for… Two of the pairs that I suggested had clearer outcomes were EURUSD and GBPUSD. Both listened carefully to my thoughts and decided to do the opposite. I can cope with GBPUSD although it does suggest quite serious implications for early next week. It may well be the same for EURUSD but I’d rather sit back and let today develop. All I could see from yesterday’s development was complicated corrective behaviour and with some ominous signs from GBPUSD, it may be best to approach with care.

USDCHF rallied well yesterday although it appears to be approaching a barrier. Therefore, the risk of a correction lower is very much on the cards. However, this is a pair that still needs to be handled with kid gloves – so take care.

AUDUSD didn’t see the deeper correction and this triggered losses that then broke below my anticipated target – but following a shallow correction, this would have been the implied outcome. It has approached a key support, even if temporary, so don’t expect a repeat of yesterday…

The JPY pairs continue to confound. However, I feel I may have discovered the reason and need to test this out today to confirm my suspicions. It tends to suggest further consolidation within the current wide range between 115.50 - 121.84. Quite what this means for EURJPY is a conundrum. EURUSD has become engorged with confusion while USDJPY, as mentioned, is due to go nowwhere it seems. This doesn’t really provide us with many clues for the cross – except, until there is greater clarity in either EURUSD or USDJPY, it remains a pair that is best left alone.

Care today – there’s an awful lot of confusion around…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Thursday, January 29, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: While 0.7940-75 caps we should see losses continue below 0.7860…

Resistance: 0.7914 0.7940 0.7970-75 0.7996
Support: 0.7883 0.7863 0.7829 0.7796-06

MAIN ANALYSIS: Early in the day I see the 0.7863-83 area as supportive for a correction back to the 0.7940 area. Allow for 0.7970-75. Watch for bearish reversal indications to suggest losses that will break below the 0.7860 area to reach 0.7829 at least. Take care there in case price extends to the next projection target at 0.7796. This low (from 0.7829 - or 0.7796) should provide a correction of around 40-60 points before losses resume.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any direct break above 0.7985 would threaten a retest of yesterday's 0.8024 high. Breach would surprise and risk gains to 0.8051 and 0.8066.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
28th November: I remain with the minimum daily target being at 0.7569… It looks like the 0.8614 high has provided the corrective high and therefore the next target should be around the 0.7978 area (though this is a preliminary estimate) which is clearly some way lower. Even then, the correction will be relatively shallow before heading down to the 0.7569 target. 

26th January:  The decline is developing steadily and we now require a 3-wave decline to reach the 0.7569 area... en route we should see choppy losses to 0.7748 and later to 0.7569.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A little more movement today

Hmmm, that was a tough day. Too many currency pairs stretched the normal limits or fell slightly short of target that caused some wayward calls. In the JPY pairs the upside failure hasn’t actually broken any key supports but…

Starting with the Europeans, EURUSD and GBPUSD dipped a little more than expected. However, this shouldn’t be a signal for losses to resume. At least, not yet. There is a slight discrepancy between the two in terms of their individual needs but, at this point, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Therefore, I do see them both having a positive day today. USDCHF… saw a strange sideways move. The 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud still continues to support and suggests the upside has more leeway.

The Aussie also stretched the limits of the bullish correction and saw my resistance break by 5 points only to then see the losses I have been expecting. Overall, this should maintain the downside but we are due a correction before those losses extend towards the next targets. Do expect some pullbacks though. This part of the decline promises a less direct route lower.

Finally, the JPY pairs… I can’t say I’m too happy about the losses seen and which could have a more bearish outcome. The same can be said of EURJPY. It’s not a done deal yet, but the market does now need to come to a collective decision on the next intermediate move.

Best pairs with greater clarity are EURUSD and GBPUSD along with AUDUSD…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Steady as she goes…

Compared to the furore of last week, having adjusted and settled on a fresh outlook, yesterday went pretty well. If I can sum up today in one sentence, then it’s “more of the same.” I don’t want to get too comfortable with the general theme of steady follow-through because this is a correction and these can be notoriously complicated. This begs the advice of ensuring that the tenets of good money management are adhered to. However, for the most part today looks like it could be very similar to yesterday. There are a few exceptions, in particular AUDUSD, but overall the current moves look pretty steady.

As way of background, we have seen both EURUSD and GBPUSD break above their 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds and on positive momentum. Hourly momentum holds less clarity but within the current corrective structure the direction of momentum will provide confirmation of direction when accompanied by the same 4-hour momentum direction. USDCHF has its own individual outlook following the SNB announcement. It is currently supported by its 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud but is beginning to show signs of a slowing in bullish momentum.

The Aussie has topped out in the right area. Maybe there’s a chance we could see a minor new high but this baby is still being bewitched by the lure of the downside.

The JPY pairs developed well yesterday, perhaps USDJPY dipping a little deeper than I would have liked, but overall it does seem to have completed a triangle. A little care is required due to the extreme swings, but overall the general outlook I have offered is still on track. Despite the losses in USDJPY, EURJPY did manage to make further gains – albeit it slowly. This bullish outlook does remain valid although I note that hourly momentum does have potential to develop a bearish divergence. Much depends on the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, January 27, 2015

WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
27th January:

There are both hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences and therefore I suspect we'll see a move up higher in Wave (b) - probably in a triple three and into the span of the Wave [b] / [v] and max around the Wave [iv]. 

So far we have seen a single zigzag and thus we should be looking for Wave x - probably between 1.1151-94. The clear upside target is the span of Wave [b] / [v] at 1.1480 - 1.1650...


Also note the 33.3%-38.2% retracement in Wave (b) at 1.1597 - 1.1671. Thus, we need observe the structure and if we have seen a triple three by then, we could see the losses resume. When approaching this retracement target area look for hourly and potentially 4-hour bearish divergences. I suspect the weekly Price Equilibrium Cloud will provide the nudge lower to resume the losses...

Good trading
Ian Copsey 

An intimidated market

I didn’t enjoy doing yesterday’s analysis. There were too many points to measure, over too long a period and not enough time to fully absorb the alternative possibilities. Having completed the analysis and going over some new alternatives I have begin to feel a little more comfortable. The outcome, all arrived at independently, was quite encouraging in terms of the general correlation that I would expect and that all the currency pairs fit snugly into their own implied structure. Thu, I feel a lot more confident of the next stage.

As we start the day, it looks like we shall see the habitual correction during Asian hours. Perhaps it could extend into some of the European morning. However, there are signs that the Dollar longs will unwind further and which has quite well defined target areas. Even then, there is a strong chance that we’d only see a correction to today’s expected targets.

The Aussie didn’t quite go as expected. However, I see that I was a little too direct with my projections. Here we should see further gains but which may well react more strongly following another push higher. Perhaps this can occur at the natural targets suggested for the Europeans. Overall, this still has a continuing bearish outcome.

The JPY pairs… USDJPY dipped a little lower than I would have liked but did recover well to head up into the higher end of the consolidation area. Like the Europeans, I think it’s due a move back lower and this is where the whip will crack one way or the other. I tend to prefer higher. This also appears to be implied by EURJPY although it should begin the day on a soft note. Thus, the expectation will be to buy on dips.

Be aware that the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds should limit the Dollar downside for a while and this suggests an initial (at least) limited trading range.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Monday, January 26, 2015

The next step…

Indeed, what will be the next step? The downside risk in EURUSD has most certainly not found its low yet, so the question is whether it will extend losses or require a correction higher. With the exit polls – and now confirmation – of the anti-austerity party having won in the Greek election, this morning’s reaction on open to see a move back to Friday’s lows was always on the cards. However, I suspect much of this was discounted in the recent “step off the cliff edge” decline. I spent a long while trying to resolve the decline from 1.3993 to identify the structure. I have come to a conclusion that I was probably correct in calling a low way back at 1.3332 but had not considered such a shallow correction. This should imply that we’re approaching a low but also suspect that we’ll need a deeper correction before the final low. The problem is in identifying where the deeper correction will commence. I suspect it’s not too far off but at this point, neither 4-hour or hourly momentum are displaying any robust reversal indications. The structure is such that the process of identifying the correct targets is rather flimsy at present…

I do note that USDCHF has decided to take the option of the deeper bullish correction. This will maintain a gradual process of allowing the market to settle following the extraordinarily large price adjustment – the largest I have seen in my 33 years in the market. GBPUSD has stalled above my support. There is potential for the upside to develop but, to be safe, we need a little more confirmation. Should it do so, it could suggest that EURUSD could begin the deeper correction I have suggested above…

USDJPY missed my resistance by 1 point on Friday – but then dropped below the expected support. This is a little puzzle. I’m not that keen on a direct reversal lower and suspect a period of consolidation. There are clear break levels – so watch those carefully. Equally, EURJPY tried out a mini bungee jump but this morning has slipped back to its lows. I feel this is also in a position where a correction higher is due but still with the risk of minor new lows first.

Overall, the market could be quite jittery today. If there is any sign of a correction higher in EURUSD and EURJPY, in particular, then jump on it but take care and note the key resistance areas.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey