BIAS: We should now see losses to 1.5915 minimum - maybe 1.5874…
MAIN ANALYSIS: As with the Continentals the downtrend extended more directly than I had expected to reach 1.5950. The 1.6038 high should now hold for losses to extend down to (around) the 1.5950 low and after a correction to 1.5910-15 minimum. From this point take care. There are valid projections at 1.5910-15 and also 1.5874. We will need to observe the development and judge through hourly momentum (maybe 4-hour also - but this isn't clear at this stage) to provide a signal that momentum is getting stretched on the downside - and possibly a bullish reversal pattern.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a direct break back above 1.6040-45 would surprise and take price back higher through 1.6070 to the 1.6087-05 resistance at least. Also note the 1.6125-30 resistance.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
31st October: We are definitely seeing an irregular triangle but whether this stalls at the 1.5910-15 area - or as deep as the 1.5874 low - is something we need judge when the time comes. From there we need a correction in the final leg of the triangle before losses resume.
While I feel in unlikely, if there is any alternative then possibly we should also maintain observation in case we're still in Wave v - noting the 1.5857 and more likely 1.5764 and 1.5654 projections.