Wednesday, March 29, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:               Ideally, we should see gains today

Resistance:    0.7657-67     0.7684     0.7702-05     0.7720-25

Support:         0.7620-30     0.7587     0.7557-70     0.7530-40

MAIN ANALYSIS:             I was surprised with the additional losses to 0.7587 but this should have been the low - particularly because the recovery broke above 0.7648. We should allow for a pullback to 0.7620-30 but overall I am expecting a stronger rally that needs to move back towards 0.7720-25 and later above.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a break below 0.7587 could see losses extend to 0.7557-70. Take care here and note any possible bullish divergences - both hourly & 4-hour. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Looks like some swings today

I have to say that the sudden rush higher in the Dollar has generated a very challenging development. I feel relatively comfortable with EURUSD, less so in USDCHF, while USDJPY is still a development in progress. All this needs to be considered with the lone wolf GBPUSD. Well, that’s what I thought as I prepared the report but GBPUSD collapsed. This puts it between a set of alternatives and quite how the rest of the day develops will need some keen observation.

What I see is a day that can see some pretty solid swings – probably more in the second half of the day. How this develops tends to balance on the fine line that GBPUSD reached at 1.2375. Otherwise, the other three majors are likely to see Dollar gains followed by a correction.

The Aussie appears to have found its corrective low with both 4-hour and hourly bullish divergences that have taken price above the recent peaks. Therefore, there is room for gains in this pair – and it will need to be watched carefully. This seems to be in line with the expectations in the second half of the day.

As for EURJPY, it seems we do still need one more rally to a minor new high before the reversal lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, March 28, 2017

An unfortunate detour

Tiresome… That was not meant to happen and I’m not a happy bunny. The break above 1.2550 in GBPUSD now requires a move back above 1.2705. So, there’s more work to be done to complete its rally. There’s a chance that we have seen the Dollar lows in EURUSD and USDCHF – but I feel we may well see one final push to minor new Dollar lows before reversing. This would tend to correlate with the needed gains in GBPUSD but there will come a time when it probably clashes with the Continental Europeans. Still, this could just see the Continentals building their foundation waves for the next Dollar rally.

So, it looks like we’ll see a rather messy day with less directional movements and more completion of the Dollar decline – and followed by the establishment of foundation waves.

I am getting the feeling we have found the low in USDJPY. This will be confirmed by further gains into the range around 110.75-95 area approx. It will likely see a pullback before any further gains can be seen. This tends to match the expectation in the Continentals…

All this should see EURJPY in rather messy position and could still see some limited range trading but with the expectation of a minor new high before the downside resumes. It’s certainly not an easy structure to follow but I suspect in the larger picture the Euro will outrun USDJPY.

As for AUDUSD – it had a pretty narrow range day. It seems to be suggesting a further minor low but I’d suggest taking care in this pair as it is suggesting that we should see gains.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Monday, March 27, 2017

A mild detour

This morning’s open produced a snafu that pushed EURUSD above 1.0828 and in USDCHF below 0.9881 that has provided a minor quandary. Basically, what appears to have occurred is that the rally from 1.0340 on the 3rd January fooled me – and instead the rally to 1.0828 developed in 5-waves. The rally from the 1.0493 low is now looking like a 5-wave move that will complete a zigzag.

This has generated losses in the Dollar but I feel we need to take care due to the 4-hour momentum divergences that are seen across the 4 majors. Confirmation of this will need a break through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds – all of which are flattening out and should see break to the Dollar upside. With those confirmed, we should see follow-through.

The odd-one-out is AUDUSD. Friday saw additional losses to complete a triple three and accompanied by a solid hourly bullish divergence and a mini 4-hour divergence. Perhaps it would be prudent to confirm this through direct gains – although it does seem to have broken above a descending wedge high. The idea of having a totally negative correlation is a little concerning – so it’ll still be best to take this step-by-step.

Thus, we’re going to have to take care today and hopefully by the end of the day we should discover the next directional move.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, March 24, 2017

We should begin to see a more progressive outlook

My goodness, what a dour day it was yesterday. This grudging, slow and almost frightened market just failed to have any definite impact. It was good to see USDJPY make a new low. That brought the 4 majors – less GBPUSD – into a degree of correlation. The odd one out – GBPUSD – almost succumbed to the downside but then suddenly launched into yet another zigzag and by gum, an amazingly complicated and intricate one - although it’s not quite complete but we’re going to have to take care with this pair.

The Aussie extended losses and towards the general target zone I mentioned – between 0.7640 and 0.7560. We’ve edged into this zone but I feel it needs a pullback and a final leg lower – all within this range – before it rallies. This does seem contrary to the majors but we are beginning to see an hourly bullish divergence but perhaps we need the second decline to allow 4-hour momentum to join in with the bullish divergence.

As for EURJPY, it actually saw a pattern very similar to USDJPY – and that implies gains. However, I think the pullback higher will be limited.

It doesn’t look like a frantic day today – but should set us up for a stronger trend next week.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, March 23, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:         We should see losses today

Resistance:   1.0809          1.0824-28     1.0850-55     1.0872

Support:        1.0775-90     1.0755-60     1.0719-45     1.0675-80

MAIN ANALYSIS:             We should confirm the loss of 1.0775 that will extend losses towards the  1.0719-45 area being the first reversal. This will likely provoke a correction higher before losses can resume. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a direct break above 1.0828 would cause a great deal of angst… However, I'd be looking for bearish reversal indications in the daily (cyan) Wave (b)/(iii). I wouldn't be surprised to see the 1.0872 area cap - but we'll have to judge that if it is approached and ensure bearish reversal indications. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Still some barriers to overcome

This past week or so has been an incredibly complex development. It has seen pushes to the extreme – and that is highlighted by the Euro that stalled only 3 points below the 1.0828 high. At the same time the spider track movements in USDCHF and GBPUSD haven’t helped the cause… In USDCHF I was amazed with the strong follow-through below the 0.9966 low. That’s also an unusual development – and I have to say that I considered the potential for a move down to the 0.9860 low – let’s face it, it’s just another 20 points away…

So we’re still having a battle with the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds but once they have been penetrated I think life will get a little better. We’ve still to form the foundation waves so there’s still a risk of what may look like consolidation before the next trend.

In USDJPY I’d rather remain more cautious. I’m not convinced we’ve seen the low and there is a risk of a move into the low 110’s.

As for the Aussie, it’s not an easy outlook at all. The bigger picture suggests further downside but I can’t rule out an initial deeper pullback. It’s currently not a safe pair to mess about with. I’d suggest waiting for further losses to develop…

Good trading
Ian Copsey