Wednesday, July 27, 2016

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:      While 115.60-96 caps we should see losses resume


Resistance: 115.60-96 116.15-20 116.40-60 116.86
Support: 114.90-00 114.45 114.05-10 113.80

MAIN ANALYSIS:     The expected losses reached the lower of the 114.45-114.85 support area from where a pullback higher has been seen. From there we have seen a modestly deep pullback but should hold below 115.60-96 (allow for 116.15-20) for losses to resume back to 114.45 and overall to the 113.37 projection (max 112.85.) This will require a pullback of around 120-150 points before losses resume... 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any direct break above 116.30 and 116.72 would risk deeper gains. Clearly this will require either EURUSD or USDJPY (or both) to see robust gains. If seen then look for follow-through to 117.27-46…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Too many swingers

The persistent deep pullbacks are frustrating and with the lower degree development tending to be too choppy or too direct, it generates difficulties in matching the right points that will clarify the structure. In the past I have associated it with more corrective development but for some while – certainly the past 15-16 months – this corrective style has infiltrated into the impulsive sequences also. It actually requires a method of automated scanning across the sequences to identify potential impulsive development – but I’m trying to work on that… Otherwise, the process of performing a scan manually can take an inordinate amount of time…

That said, the basic direction remains the same – although I have some doubts in GBPUSD that has a minor risk of having completed the downside. It’s difficult to consider given that the other Europeans and the Aussie are basically Dollar bullish even if they are moving like a roller coaster (translated into jet coaster for those in the U.S.) So, in particular, do take care with GBPUSD. We shall need a new low to confirm the original outlook.

The 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds tend to back up the Dollar directional bias but with the swings we are seeing it wouldn’t take much to see a swing in the opposite direction. Therefore, at this point I still tend to side with a bullish Dollar but there are fine lines between bullish & bearish at the moment. Therefore, do be vigilant.

USDJPY finally caved in. Until Monday we had a balance between complex corrections and zigzags. Yesterday changed that and now we’re looking for zigzags… The only problem is related to the first paragraph above… the lower degree structures and the limited pullbacks are making life difficult. I think we can work around the recent range to make that judgement.

It looks like yet another day that starts slow and ends with swings…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Limp and lackadaisical

Eeek, while the initial follow-through and reversal was seen in the majority of pairs, what then transpired was a lost market that didn’t know what to do, meandering but without any intent… It has seriously complicated the structures and has made life very difficult to be certain of the outcome. I sense, in some cases, the risk of a complex correction but which could become irregular. At the very worst, maybe it will break the basic Dollar bullish move that we have been seeing…

However, it’s not a done deal at the moment. Strangely enough USDCHF developed pretty much as expected although dipped 5 points below my ideal target. Even then, we now need to confirm the follow-through and this will be the critical issue today. The other pairs don’t quite have the same clarity as USDJPY so perhaps the Swissie can be the signal for the next move…

Even the Aussie appears to be developing an irregular corrective structure – most likely a triangle – but in this position it tends to suggest limited movement on both sides of the market. I could say much the same for EURJPY that has a pattern like a descending triangle but it’s one of those structures that can morph into an alternative irregular correction…

My underlying preference is Dollar bullish but best take additional care today… There’s not a lot of clarity in this market…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  




Monday, July 25, 2016

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR USDJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:     We remain in an uncertain outlook and may imply a sideways consolidation


Resistance: 106.40-50 106.75-85 107.25 107.49
Support: 105.77 105.40 105.26 105.90-95

MAIN ANALYSIS:   We have a range - from the 107.49 high to 105.40 low. The weekly Price Equilibrium Cloud is capping price while the daily Cloud is supporting. With the 3-wave decline there is a reasonable argument to suggest a complex correction - a flat or expanded flat. (A triangle is eliminated as this is a Wave [ii].) An expanded flat would have an upper barrier at 108.19-29 while the recycling could reach back to between 104.62 - 105.40. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Thus, I doubt we'll see direct follow-through higher - above 108.30 - and only a direct break below 105.40 would suggest the potential for a second or even third ABC pattern lower. Therefore, be aware of the downside if 105.40 breaks directly. Until then, it's probably best to remain neutral to allow any complex correction to develop.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Follow-through?

The past week, while we’ve seen some swings, hasn’t really been too directional in the broad sense. Yes, it has an underlying Dollar bullish outlook but it can hardly be called a trend – unless we broaden the outlook to the daily chart. Even then, since the Brexit referendum, EURUSD has basically remained in a tight range while the losses in GBPUSD appear to have almost been a knee-jerk reaction. To be honest, I can’t see a firm daily trend developing any time soon…

So basically, we appear to have a hit and run and pullback… and sleep and snore outlook in the current overall picture.

As far as I can see, today looks like following through from Friday although, while I don’t expect any fireworks, because we’re coming to temporary intermediate barriers that will generate a correction, it’s down to the whimsy of the market to decide whether it will be brief or long. In the current semi-mid picture, all appears to be on track and if nothing else it is still constructive.

So it’s a case of patience and taking the low road, awaiting the high road, but the broad swings continuing if the current fashion of deep Wave (b)’s of Wave (iii)…

It should be a steady, if relatively limited move today…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, July 22, 2016

Getting a bit jumbled

Well, that was a weird old day… Nothing’s really changed in terms of the directional movements but the deeper pullbacks were just not needed. I’ve seen it happen before in these Wave (b)/(iii)’s and I can only attribute it to an uncertain market. Indeed, Wave (b)’s are generally the wave that encompasses a wide buffer within which the market can hide and do nothing. I just can’t see what they’re hiding from… The resultant impact of this type of offbeat development is a stronger Wave (c)/(iii) – although not really changing the Wave (iii) target, just a longer Wave (c). What’s more, in EURUSD even the same structure in the resultant lower degree Wave -b-/-iii- is doing much the same…

This has also made a mess of USDCHF although this guy now has a much more uncertain outcome. I’ll stick with my basic underlying direction but it does look terribly confusing. From this perspective I think that we’ll need to be rather observant in case some other quirky development is going to complicate things even further. There have been few economic events this week and today is no exception. Thus, take care with trades.

Even the Aussie became more complicated but I noted what has happened. While it can see some minor breaks, I see potential for choppy swings today that are not really conducive to easy trades.

Of all the pairs, it was USDJPY that surprised the most. I have been searching for the top – thought it would happen at a higher level but the bearish Key Day Reversal bar put paid to any immediate thoughts about the upside… Thus, the movement from here should be more corrective and with higher chance of complex corrections…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, July 21, 2016

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:    Losses to resume...

Resistance: 1.1016-30 1.1048 1.1065 1.1084
Support: 1.0990-00 1.0970 1.0926-34 1.0898

MAIN ANALYSIS:    Not the losses I expected but a pullback but this should have found the high and thus the downside can now resume. This should see the 1.1016-30 area cap and for losses to move back below 1.0990 and down to the approximate 1.0925-30 area - minor pullback of 15-20 points - and follow-through to 1.0898. Here yet another mini correction around 20 points +/- and losses to 1.0837. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Any break above 1.1050-65 would be a little more concerning - but any further higher would appear to see the likely maximum at 1.1130-43… Only above there would risk further gains to 1.1164 again… However, take care and note any reversal indications.

Good trading
Ian Copsey