Friday, November 27, 2015

Listless in Seattle

Actually, it should be “Listless all over the planet…” Clearly, yesterday was always going to be a quiet day and now that we’re at the end of the week, that listlessness is going to make for another long day of screen watching, drinking beer and watching those funny little flashing numbers go in and out of focus…

Basically we’re in a temporary corrective phase that has a modestly wide range. In some pairs we may see overlap but probably only in a complex correction – a triangle or in the right position - an expanded flat or flat correction. Therefore, it’s going to be important that the boundaries of any of the expanded flats are known. However, I don’t think we’re going to see much of that – only a few of the pairs are in that position.

Thus, the majority look like being basic corrections – either a zigzag, double zigzag or triple three – and no doubt in the expected listless market, this could see complex Wave b’s and/or complex Wave x’s. So yes, you can guess that it could be quite treacherous so do please take care.

So, there’s a not a lot of constructive expectation today. Take care and keep to short term trades.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, November 25, 2015


BIAS: This should be a mostly bullish day

Resistance: 1.0175-80 1.0225 1.0244-54 1.0280-90
Support: 1.0143 1.0104-21 1.0085 1.0065

MAIN ANALYSIS: Yesterday losses stalled just below the 1.0147-55 area - at 1.0143. From here the rally should extend back to the 1.0244-54 area for a correction of around 20 points before heading up to the 1.0280-1.0309 projection target. Take care here as I feel the correction should be relatively deep. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any break below the 1.0243 low and also 1.0121 would extend losses to probably test the 1.0085-04 area (max 1.0065) but then see the larger uptrend resume.

25th November: The development here is still staggered and slow. Overall, it still suggests gains and back above the 1.0239 high and to a minimum of 1.0383 ... but then take care.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Choking the wagging tail

Perhaps it should be expected but heck, this slow market is slowing down more. To be honest, unless some throat wrenching catalyst occurs, tomorrow’s Thanksgiving looks like seeing some painful range trading. Having said that, we should see some additional extremes. Well, perhaps “extreme” is not a great word, but “marginal break” looks more likely. Within the Europeans it’s probably EURUSD that has its limitations while both USDCHF and GBPUSD do seem to have more potential for slightly firmer follow-through.

There was one outlier yesterday – AUDUSD – that baulked the Dollar bullishness. It was a tight call but one that appears to have come right and perhaps more than right. By that, I’ve found the rally stronger than expected. We’ll have to be careful here because it tends to suggest potential extremes – any break above a key projection, or below a support could still lead this pair in either direction. Best take note of those levels.

The other pair that had a break down yesterday was USDJPY. This is beginning to suggest a period of weakness – as I’ve mentioned SO many times – the 48 weeks cycle low is not very far away. It isn’t yet a done deal but be attentive to any losses. Even then, the decline in EURJPY reached its general target area. It should correct higher and much depends on USDJPY to sway this one way or the other. Thus, best watch these two, combined with EURUSD for the cross, and look to take advantage of both bullish and bearish outcomes in USDJPY…

Once again, steady as she goes. It’ll probably be a slow day once again.

Happy Thanksgiving
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

The tale of the tortoise and the tortoise

Yes, the entire year appear to have seen hares go extinct. In fact, sometimes I’ve felt that the tortoise has gone into hibernation too… However, yesterday developed pretty close to expectations and this bodes well for my general structures. I’m not sure today will see any hares start popping up from holes. In fact, it does look as if modest corrections are more likely. This should mean that – at some point – we will have to be observant to identify the correction endings. If there is any other alternative then we may just see some sideways consolidation. I doubt it for today, but Thursday’s Thanksgiving in the States has the greater chance of seeing a dull sideways day.

The Europeans are working pretty much to expectations, so I’ll not make any additional mention of these chaps. However, the Aussie is struggling a bit. Yesterday’s low was a tad deep and this needs to be observed carefully. I’d much prefer another rally but even if it does, I can’t see a strong follow-through.

The JPY pairs had different outcomes in terms of constructive movement. USDJPY feinted a rally but then gave up to allow a marginally new corrective low. This low should not break else the downside could look more at risk. Until then the underlying picture should be bullish. Having said that, as I have mentioned for quite some months, there is a key 48-week cycle low looming over the next 2-3 weeks…

However, I can’t see particularly strong movement today because EURJPY has almost completed its decline and that should see gains develop – and should be driven more by USDJPY. Therefore, the cross does suggest a two-way day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, November 23, 2015


BIAS: We should now see a whippy end to the current decline

Resistance: 130.90-10 131.40-45 131.65-75 132.04
Support: 130.52-65 130.33-45 130.00-10 129.60-65

MAIN ANALYSIS: This has been a rather strange decline but having reached this low, we should be close to an intermediate low. This should see the first half of the day reaching down to 130.52-65 for a correction to around 130.90-10 approx - and from here we should see losses to 130.33-45. Here we are likely to see a correction back to the same resistance area - 130.90-10 - that would suggest the final leg lower can reach to around the 130.00-10. Allow for a small margin below. Watch for bullish reversal indications for a correction of the decline from 132.26.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: If there is any earlier break above 131.20 and 131.40-45 then it may suggest a recycling back to the 132.26-60 area…

17th November:  We are moving lower nicely but there is quite a wide range in which this decline can stall. The bare minimum is at 129.60-65 but has potential to 129.00-10 and even as deep as 128.25-50.

Only back above 132.23 and 132.75 would risk a deeper correction...   

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Awareness Day

The one thing that concerns me is the approach to the annual decline in liquidity. This normally begins around the first ten days in December. This may generate a conundrum in that, given the vast majority of the year has been in corrective behaviour, the market is probably not going to stretch the limits in such a ragged year that we’ve seen. Therefore, liquidity could begin to wane pretty soon and that tends to suggest one of two alternatives that occur over the seasonal period – ratcheting, messy and indecisive trading or a rampant directional move.

I fancy the latter.

Coming back to today, we saw the Dollar recover ground it had lost. The question for today – and probably the next day or two beyond – is whether the market will just resume its upward path. To be honest, it’s a fine line and I can see arguments for both.

The Dollar didn’t much like the downside on Friday. The gains seen, except in USDJPY, were more than I had looked for and this highlights a balanced market. In the next larger timeframe there is room on both sides of the market and as such, we need to understand critical levels and react to breaks. If anything, there’s a risk of mild follow-through from Friday’s Dollar gains and followed by a reversal. 

As the week moves on, we have Thanksgiving on Thursday and this could also impact on the market activity – probably slowing it down. Therefore, it tends to suggest a mild preference for a general lack of interest that could generate some sticky consolidations at times…

In other words, in line with most of the year, negative, defensive trading…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, November 20, 2015

Surprise package

Well that was not what I had expected… Actually, a couple of weeks back I did suggest the low 1.06’s as the base for a recovery but then thought it could actually move a bit deeper. It’s a shame that I didn’t stick with that… What this has generated is some short-term uncertainty that could last through to the end of the day – perhaps into Monday. Overall, it has generated some complications although within the larger daily structure everything appears to be on track.

This should still see some guarded development through the Asian session and probably Europe also – and mentioned above, possibly through Monday. Very much depends on whether the market has any enthusiasm as we go into the weekend. However, do keep in mind the Dollar upside and the potential for further gains if key resistance levels are taken out.

In AUDUSD, strength seen has reached an interesting area also and when considered within the larger picture the alternative count I have been suggesting does look quite interesting. I do find that the Aussie can lead the way – and perhaps this pair can provide a stronger broadcast of the next move.

That USDJPY also dropped much deeper than expected was a bit of a bummer. However, having gone through the spreadsheet I can see sense in what has happened. This has a little duality as the day begins but probably it’ll be EURJPY that may be able to help us out. The Cross edged to a new corrective high – just a mere 6 points above 132.20. This could also provide some key information also.

Thus, while there is risk of a stagnant market today, do keep your eyes on AUDUSD and EURJPY to work out when a stronger move is likely to develop.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey