Thursday, January 19, 2017

Next stage

 Yesterday saw USDJPY, EURUSD and USDCHF reverse through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds. Thus, we have a Dollar bullish bias. It was expected although I had allowed for minor new Dollar lows – but these failed to materialise. So we now pass to the next stage and need to quantify the structure to see whether it has the “oomph” to take advantage. However, GBPUSD remains in flux. It has neither broken below its 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud nor key bearish break level. Thus, we have to work with the balance between the upside and downside. Thus, we need to remain neutral until either new high – or a move below that key break level.

Indeed, there appears to be some risk of deeper pullbacks as the day starts and we’ll have to see how feisty the market will be once Europe and North America enter the fray.

EURJPY managed quite a solid recovery – that took me by surprise – with USDJPY, unshackled from the bearish decline and break above the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud – to extend gains in the cross. However, there should be a lull in the USDJPY upside for a while but we’re going to have to judge the balance between the two intrinsic pairs. Overall, I do still see the cross edging lower – unless the upside break level… breaks…

Down under we have seen AUDUSD extend losses as I had hoped. It’s currently testing the channel support but could see a pullback higher. Once the channel low is broken we should see stronger losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, January 18, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:     I am now looking for a cap for losses

Resistance:   0.7568         0.7585     0.7620-28     0.7655

Support:        0.7525-30    0.7505     0.7480-85     0.7464

MAIN ANALYSIS:            The rally reached the 0.7555-80 target area. There is a minor hourly bearish divergence but hasn't yet broken below support - this being at 0.7525-30. Thus, we shall have to be patient because there's risk of a move to 0.7585 but overall, the outlook should now be bearish. Once below 0.7525 we should see losses down to 0.7480-85 and later 0.7448. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any break above 0.7630 - on bullish momentum - could risk further gains but take care at 0.7655 and 0.7690-95…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A tricky day

Overall yesterday was a steady day with the exception of GBPUSD that decided to take up pole dancing – not that it managed any classy swings on the way up. It has, at least, cleared up the confusion of the ragged, scrappy decline and provided a more definite outcome that had been searching for. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it higher still but we probably need to cope with some difficult development beforehand.

Indeed, this seems to be a common theme across several pairs. Such was the relatively direct losses in the Dollar that it seems to have been a little too enthusiastic and this will suggest some care during today so that we’ll have to wait patiently to observe the initial pullback to allow follow-through later today. I see this in USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD in particular. I have some doubts about USDCHF in this regard…

The Aussie is a little more vague – although followed my instructions in yesterday’s report. Watch the channel there…

EURJPY also performed well, following through from the recent losses so we should be hitting the targets I mentioned yesterday. The trick here will be the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD. Which will provide the stronger move versus a weaker one.

So today needs some focus and attention to understand the balance between the pairs and their limits.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Still Steady Eddie trading

Clearly the U.S. bank holiday took any sting out of any tail but, that said, it’s generally been that way for a while barring a few whips and wriggles. I suspect this will continue over today – probably tomorrow also. Actually, maybe it’ll last through to the end of the week… That the continued sluggish development is most likely going to happen there won’t be too much profit to squeeze from the market. Therefore, the focus should still be on short-term trades. However, once the recent wild swings subside I suspect a more decent trending move.

Probably, EURJPY has suddenly begun to see some more directional moves. This has been driven mostly by losses in USDJPY – but also the lackadaisical EURUSD. There’s still a little more to go but before long, this should begin to slow down. This may well be the best outlook for today I feel…

The Aussie remains subdued. Nothing has changed from Friday in terms of expectations but still, it doesn’t look like being a frenetic day but instead a repeat of the slow development from just before Christmas. I really don’t think we’re going to get strong reactions for today and tomorrow.

As for the Europeans – the Continentals should stagger through the day without too much of a range – and strangely enough this may happen with GBPUSD also following yesterday’s gap lower…

Keep it simple today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Friday, January 13, 2017

Friday the 13th…

Ever since the 3rd May last year the number of deep wave (b)/(iii)’s has been astonishing. It almost seems to have become the norm over the past 2-3 months. They can be really tricky…

The development from the start of the year has been a torrid one in EURUSD. First out of the gate this month I was too much in a hurry to see the downside. So I considered an expanded flat but that appeared to have broken down. Therefore, I thought it could suggest an irregular triangle only for yesterday to see further gains that implied an overlapping rally – a deep Wave (b)/(iii)… and all this with the accompanying fragile GBPUSD and a deep pullback in USDCHF. The fascinating thing about this one is that it’s the last leg of an expanding flat. However, today should complete this crabby, dishevelled and fickle structure…

I hope…

This should settle the fate of the majors and hopefully the follow through will be less volatile.

EURJPY has finally broken down but this pair can generate volatile swings too. I don't think this is going to be an easy rise either and the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is obviously going to be key. How quick or how slow the follow-through will be, I really am not at all sure although, just keeping an eye on the eventual target, it seems to suggest steady, if erratic, losses.

As for AUDUSD… What the… Seriously, the loss from 0.7777 is just weird – stalling just above the 0.7145 low (on the 24th May last year…) I have to work on this. Currently I can’t see the logic in the structure…

Roll on next week…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, January 12, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:              While 1.0622-27 caps we should see losses down to 1.0380-00

Resistance:  1.0622-27     1.0652     1.0682     1.0706

Support:       1.0563          1.0540     1.0515     1.0495-00

MAIN ANALYSIS:            The break below 1.0530-35 triggered the alternative - an irregular triangle. The initial decline reached 1.0453 in a 5-wave decline but then saw a sharp rally back towards the 1.0627 high. Thus, we should now see losses - most likely in 5-waves - that should reach the 1.0380-00 area. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Only directly above 1.0627 would concern but I'd then suggest watching the 1.0661-82 area as a possible top - max 1.0706. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Squished snails and worms

By the time I laid my head upon a nice soft pillow, I had seen the expanded flat in EURUSD dissipate to trigger the alternative outcome I had suggested. By the time raised my old bones at 3am it looked like the market had gone ape-shite. However, that said, the development has been appropriate in terms of the needed structure and therefore we are looking at Plan C. There’s a bit more than that because the general correlation has taken a hit in one or two pairs.

I have no idea what caused the Dollar to drop like a stone – and I don’t really care because it’s the structure along with ratios that actually provides targets. So I’m pretty comfortable with the overnight dramatics. (That’s Asian overnight…) What it does tend to suggest is the likelihood of continued swings for the coming week or so. Most likely we’ll see USDCHF and GBPUSD generate more directional moves compared to EURUSD but that’s not a bad thing…

The lack of correlation may well be highlighted by USDJPY that slipped below 115.06 and which seems to promise further losses that could drag EURJPY down by a decent margin although much depends on any possible consolidation.

As for the Aussie… the rapid rally was just not expected but actually hasn’t really broken any structure. It seems to be an extreme move but still valid…

So overall, I suspect some decent moves through to the end of the week but which could still be quite volatile.

Good trading
Ian Copsey