BIAS: We need the 0.9255-67 area to remain supportive and for gains to push back above 0.9320…
MAIN ANALYSIS: Losses came sharply but remained above the deeper 0.9255 retracement level. There is still a minor risk of seeing 0.9255 but with a shallow inverse head & shoulders we should see some gains and probably trigger a firmer rally. To confirm this we shall need a break above the 0.9320 area. It won't rule out corrections so take care. However, overall we should now see more positive progress back above 0.9340-45 and 0.9361 to approach the 0.9377-90 area...
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only below 0.9250 would confuse and risk a move back towards the 0.9205 low…
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
21st April: The strength seen just before I left was a big surprise and suggests a recycling back to the 0.9756 high. This will require the 0.9255 - 0.9295 area to support for gains back above 0.9460 to reach 0.9520 at least within a larger rally.
Any earlier break below 0.9255 and 0.9205 would risk a longer term irregular consolidation but overall weakness.