Thursday, May 25, 2017

Could be a complicated day – but overall a direction will develop…

I have been preoccupied with EURUSD over the past few days. That we had seen the deep losses from the highs was perfect but there was something amiss. USDCHF and USDJPY have been defining bases for the upside and GBPUSD appeared to be wavering within a range. The conflict between a minor new high in EURUSD and the Dollar gains in the other pairs appeared to suggest a conflict. Then I measured the losses from 1.1263 and – hey ho – it was a 5-wave move. Then a little bulb went off in my mind. I had mentioned the triple three from the 1.0340 low but then I recalled that I changed the first 5-wave rally that reached 1.0828. I should not have done. By putting that back to its right position the rally has been reduced to a double zigzag – AND – the final rally from 1.0839 then developed in an impulsive move with alternation intact.

Therefore, we have seen the final high. I’d still suggest leaving stops above the 1.1294 extreme in (cyan) Wave (b) but frankly, with all the other pairs now looking Dollar bullish I think I’ve found my solution…

Within the lower degrees in the other three pairs, there is little room on the Dollar downside and therefore the focus today should be on identifying when the Dollar resumes its rise. Once this has been seen it should cement the rise of the Dollar again. Indeed, I can see this being quite a solid and relatively direct rally towards the targets I have been quoting.

Thus, keep your eyes peeled for the Dollar upside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, May 24, 2017


BIAS:                 Still quite balanced here…

Resistance:      1.2975-80     1.2990-95     1.3020-25     1.3047-57

Support:           1.2941          1.2915-22     1.2900          1.2887

MAIN ANALYSIS:             The chart looks like a drunken slur… I suspect we should see a minor new low at least - below 1.2951 and then we'll have to contend with the possible 1.2915 level. This is critical in the final outcome. A break below will confirm the 1.3047 high as the final high and we should see losses down towards the 1.2829-41 area. However, it will likely not be direct and could still see pullback's higher. There's not a strong correlation between EUR and GBP so we have to work individually.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Until then there remains the alternative of a break above 1.3047-57 to suggest follow-through to 1.3086 or 1.3100 for a pullback of around 34 points approx and then a move up to the rough 1.3145-65 area. This should provide the final high for daily losses. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

More of the same

No great surprises yesterday. I’m not expecting much today either. There seems to be, following the rabid attention to selling Dollars, a fear of whispers… “Oi, did you see him try and buy Dollars?” Snigger, snigger… Clearly, we have seen some impressive gains in EURUSD from just before the start of this year and I do admit that I hadn’t expected such a rally. It just wasn’t needed – but that’s how the market cookie crumbles. Frankly, looking at the daily structure there is certainly no impulsive development. Indeed, I think we may well see one more rally in EURUSD before the Dollar resumes its rally that started in May 2014.

USDCHF is touch and go. Until it breaks above 0.9765 there remains a mild risk of a new low. I can’t see it being that deep. USDJPY is already embarking on attempting to forge ahead on the upside. However, it’s unlikely to be particularly forceful and should slump again – but not in an aggressive way. More likely it could drift into a consolidation for a while. This could still see EURJPY edging higher.

The Aussie… Oh, it drifts and looks around without much care in the world. Frankly, I see that still happening but perhaps when the EURUSD bubble bursts perhaps it can get back on the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, May 22, 2017

A brand new week

New Dollar lows were seen in the Euro and Swissie on Friday – something I hadn’t wanted but there was always room to move into. We’re generally seeing 4-hour divergences but we now need to confirm any reversal.

In contrast, USDJPY managed to retain a sideways consolidation while GBPUSD levitated higher but failed to conquer another (Dollar) peak. The Asian pair has seen a minor new corrective low – but still in the (lower degree) Wave b/iii position with a 90% retracement so we can expect gains today.

GBPUSD opened with a modestly deep gap. I’m still a little mixed on this pair and I’d like to say that we’ve seen a final corrective high but I’d much prefer to wait for this morning’s low to confirm losses. Until then, there does still seem to still be a risk of a new high…

The Cross – EURJPY – made steady gains but I can’t see any firm signs of a reversal as yet and therefore we still may need to see a break above Friday’s 124.93 high. Most likely USDJPY will be the driving force but as mentioned above I still cannot rule out EURUSD joining in with a potential new peak.

The Aussie… well, it does what it does. There’s room on the upside but I doubt too much. There’s a decent 4-hour bearish divergence developing – even an hourly bearish divergence from the 0.7447 high on the 15th May. Thus, be aware of both sides of the market…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, May 19, 2017

Unravelling the panic

I think it’s all done. There are still a few areas where I’d like to tread carefully but overall I feel we are going to unravel the bullish spike top in EURUSD along with GBPUSD’s follow through of which I warned. USDJPY and USDCHF managed minor new lows. I wasn’t too surprised considering the mess of the structures that had me frantically tapping into my spreadsheet to try and work through different possible combinations. Still, for the moment, it may be better to be more guarded to make sure the Dollar losses have abated.

For the most part we’re seeing price challenging the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds, some in the process of pressing through the Dollar side but at this point there hasn’t been any decisive break free. Thus, there could be a risk of some consolidation but even that is a pointer to the eventual reversal back to Dollar bullish.

EURJPY continued to tumble and actually looks as if it’s developing the lower degree waves that will later signal some solid moves – just take care of any break above 124.11. That would suggest that yesterday’s low was the key low.

The Aussie… it blipped up to 2 points below my resistance. I still tend to look for losses but that will only be confirmed below 0.7388. Even then, it has been so sluggish that it’s on drugs…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Tiresome but I think we’re closer to a reversal

Every now and then the market goes berserk – normally a reaction to the squaring out of a larger market position. They look like they’re going to shoot out of the top but rarely happen – and it shouldn’t. This recent move from last week has been a one-way street but while resembling the Trump Spike this has been slower. I hate these situations due to the lower degree development making life extremely difficult. For example, this morning when I woke up and saw the 1.1157 high I thought “perhaps this could be the high” but I also looked at an alternative that saw an overlap that could extend the rally in EURUSD towards the 76.4% projection in the rally from 1.0569 at 1.1185. The 85.4% is at 1.1225… but as far as I can see it’s beginning to creak at the edges.

I’ve also had to work through USDJPY – this now pointing to the likelihood of the 114.37 high being the (green) Wave (i). We have seen a double zigzag. I hope we won’t get a triple three. At least, it seems that EURJPY has completed a 3-wave decline and thus it tends to suggest that USDJPY will recover. It’s just a matter of how fast EURUSD will reverse – when it happens.

There is also a good argument for USDCHF to have found a low at 0.9774 – or perhaps a minor new low. That would confirm a triple three from the 1.0343 high. This forms the daily (navy) Wave -b-/-iii- and that points to the upside.

The pair that concerns is GBPUSD. I had thought we’d found the high at 1.2988 but yesterday saw a new high at 1.2990. It’s a very difficult outcome here. It could have found a high – but there’s a risk of an “overlap” that could take it higher towards 1.3080-1.3120… Thus, take care.

As for the Aussie – well, it’s still drifting around in a daze and has some personal issues. This pair is just too risky. I’d still suggest being neutral.

Good trading

Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Dealing with extremes…

These past few days have been rather a trial. However, yesterday’s sudden rush higher in EURUSD is a pullback in a daily Wave (b) position. I could quote higher targets but there’s something bothering me since GBPUSD has already seen a sharp decline breaking below a key corrective low. This has occurred in EURJPY also.

As a side note, the Dollar Index - which has been bothering me in terms of whether the penultimate high was seen at 103.82 – has not yet completed a triple three.

What we do have is a higgledy piggledy development with the major pairs appearing to be conflicting. There is also a scenario in USDCHF that could stall above certain levels – but even if they break it will still be valid due to the higher degree development. So we’re having to be pretty alert to identify which which is which…

Even EURJPY amazed… reaching 125.81 – that’s the 58.6% retracement in the daily Wave -iv-… and this suggests a reversal lower with both hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences.

As for the Aussie… well, it’s just a pain in the backside right now – and has been since a year ago. I have a feeling that we may just see it reverse back into the range otherwise I can’t see a logical structure for it. I’m not prepared to risk a bold forecast at this point until a clear break is seen – at which point I shall have to rework the entire year’s development…

It’s a puzzling day but we should soon see a new trend develop… Follow that.

Good trading

Ian Copsey