Friday, January 19, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 110.68.



SOME CARE REQUIRED BUT FOCUS MORE ON A FIRMER DOLLAR

I wasn’t too surprised yesterday. There were a few wrinkles but basically the general expectations I had were basically close to my template. The hourly and 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds played quite a solid role throughout. Still, both GBPUSD and USDCHF failed to penetrate the 4-hour Clouds. I suspect they’ll manage to penetrate the Dollar bullish side of the Clouds today. They’re flattening out and this tends to suggest a penetration today.

In EURUSD and USDJPY, having already penetrated the 4-hour Cloud highs to reach targets and then corrected back into the 4-hour Clouds. We should see the Clouds support the Dollar for a stronger follow-through today.

The Aussie – and even EURJPY are similar to GBPUSD and USDCHF in terms of where the 4-hour Clouds have been thwarting the Dollar upside in the Aussie and downside for EURJPY. The Clouds are flattening out so I’m expecting penetration today also.

However, no doubt, it’ll probably take Europe and/or North America to provide the impetus.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, January 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2323



STILL NEED SWINGS

The Dollar losses have stalled. Long live the bulls.

Given that we have to now form foundation waves, it still implies swings – unless, of course, we see mini-minor, eensy weensy Wave (ii)’s but I can’t see that happening. Of the 4 majors, it’s only GBPUSD that has not managed to break below the hourly Price Equilibrium Clouds – but is threatening. Both USDJPY and EURUSD have even broken through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds while USDCHF is challenging.

Therefore, it’s only a matter of time before we’ll be able to complete a lower degree Wave [a] in USDJPY, a Wave [i] in EURUSD and a Wave (i) in USDCHF. GBPUSD is still lost in the hedgerows in the British countryside. (Well, it’s worth the scenery…)

Thus, before long we’ll have to see a pullback lower in the Dollar.

I’m now pretty certain that even the Aussie has topped out. It has broken below the hourly Price Equilibrium Cloud but still needs to penetrate the 4-hour Cloud low – but is pushing. Both hourly and 4-hour divergences are pushing their weight.

That just leaves EURJPY that has been enjoying its own swings but needs to break below both the hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, January 17, 2018

MINI-DEEP CORRECTIONS?

No deep corrections. However, in some pair that suggests mini-deep corrections. This is based on USDJPY that saw a pullback to 110.98 in a Wave -iv- and a Wave -a-. Thus we need to establish the Wave -b- and the follow-through in Wave -c-/-v-. EURUSD may well have the same outlook while USDCHF is still extending losses but that requires pullbacks. This may well be the same for GBPUSD.

Therefore, it tends to suggest limited Dollar losses now just to complete the final Wave -v-’s. We’re beginning to see Dollar bullish divergences developing in both hourly and 4-hourly momentum. There’s a good chance that we’ll see the Dollar lows today – but we’ll have to allow for any complex corrections.

It looks like EURJPY has topped out – and that tends to work with the general expectations noted above. However, it may well mean that the cross will be a little scrappy but overall bearish I sense.

As for the Aussie… well, as I have mentioned before, the structure has been as tough as old boots so it will be well to use small positions to allow for any possible minor new highs above 0.7878…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Friday, January 12, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 111.04



STILL BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

These lower degree structures can be a pain in the backside. Too much noise and far more risk. With EURUSD back to 33 points below the 1.2092 high there ain’t much room on the upside. We’ve seen USDJPY bottom out – for now - and that suggests a general potential for Dollar gains. GBPUSD could just reverse back lower – but does have a little potential for a new corrective high before losses resume. Equally, USDCHF should push higher but until 0.9816 breaks there will be a mild risk of a final dip below yesterday’s low.

Overall, I tend to feel that we have Dollar upside potential but without too much oomph behind it. This tends to suggest that EURJPY is more likely to see a more narrow range today.

As for the Aussie, the alternative I mentioned yesterday has developed and we should see a little more movement higher but don’t get too excited. Watch for reversal indications…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey