Friday, August 18, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD


Swings and roundabouts

Correlation was sparse yesterday. USDJPY swung like a pendulum although has reached the 109.40 area that could provide support but frankly, there seems to be a little more on the downside. In its own way, EURUSD did the same with some broad swings but it has kept to the plan overall while USDCHF, from my update, has been pointing lower for most of the yesterday. This one hasn’t finished its decline. GBPUSD, with its fine manners and decorum, sipped tea while watching the other pairs huffing and puffing.

Gosh, what a strange old day that was. However, all is in order and we should make further progress today. There seems to be a rough correlation in some pairs but overall we’re going to have to work with the individual pairs to find a general match for all. I fancy that by next week we should see some stronger correlation brought back…

One pair that benefitted from both EURUSD and USDJPY was the cross – EURJPY. This pair should be looking for the downside to continue but there’s not a great deal of room to work with. Once the lack of correction dissipates I suspect we’ll get a stronger reaction in the cross…

As for AUDUSD… Well, it’s more encouraging. I was looking for a 3-wave move and yesterday was the first leg. It may well develop a consolidation at some point but overall we need a move lower and a reversal higher.

The current environment is a bit challenging but by next week I feel we’ll get back on track.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, August 17, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR USDJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:                   I suspect the 109.41 - 109.80 area will support for a second 5-wave rally

Resistance:   110.23     110.45           110.69     110.94

Support:        110.02     109.75-80     109.41     109.20

MAIN ANALYSIS:            Gains developed to 1 point below 110.95 - actually 110.941.  Then came the snafu - a minor pullback and even more minor follow-through to reach 110.944… This formed a Wave [a]/[i] and thus we need to establish the support in Wave [b]/[i]. It could develop at any time but note the broad 109.41-109.80 support area. Once we have established this low - perhaps when EUR and GBP find a cap - then we can begin to build another 5-wave rally. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   A direct break below 109.40 would annoy - but would still have room for an even deeper pullback but should not get anywhere close to the 108.72 low…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

A minor detour

All was calm. Then it wasn’t. It has provoked a minor detour but one that seems to be manageable. Probably, the key to confirm what has occurred lies in both EURUSD and GBPUSD. Firstly, it would seem that EURUSD has a stronger 5-wave decline to the low but then required an expanded flat. This hasn’t yet been completed but should be resolved by the European session. The same can be said of GBPUSD. Therefore, we should later see the general move develop.

The same can be said in USDCHF but note the key support at 0.9641. USDJPY worked pretty well until the final moment when the Wave [v] stalled at 110.944 being an 11.5% projection. Oh… what a pain. Thus, USDJPY has formed a 5-wave rally and now needs to see a 5-wave rally to form a Wave [c]/[i]. Sounds easy except we have to establish the Wave [b] – and that’s the puzzle.

EURJPY reached my target perfectly – only it wasn’t in the structure I had expected. This could see the cross wobble a bit as USDJPY and EURUSD complete their respective legs. Most likely that will imply that the pullback in USDJPY should be short-lived. However, this does provide us with a general template to follow.

As for AUDUSD… well, AT LAST – we have seen a decent rally but should complete the current wave pretty soon. The problem then will be how deep the pullback will be… or are we seeing a triple three instead of an impulsive wave. Thus, we still need to be on our guard.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Getting closer

Yesterday saw Dollar gains continue but we’re not that far off from a deeper correction. I very much doubt that today will see the reversal. In fact, it could last through to the end of the week. I sense that, in some pairs, we may see triangles in some of the Wave (iv) positions. Indeed, USDCHF looks pretty certain to complete its triangle before the other pairs – but then, it needs a little more movement higher to get towards the end of this particular rally.

EURUSD has a stronger chance of a triangle that could last into tomorrow at least. This has occurred due to an abnormally deep Wave -iv-, a relatively common development that then provokes the triangle. So don’t expect any real impulsive developments for a while. Perhaps USDJPY has potential to develop a triangle – but I’m less inclined towards a triangle but could see a flat or expanded flat. GBPUSD appears to have no such chance. Here I suspect we may find a final leg lower but which may have a deep Wave b/v – maybe a triangle in the Wave b? However, that’s not set in stone.

So, while we are getting closer to a Dollar high, there may be some difficult consolidations en route.

EURJPY should see some swings but within a broader rally. AUDUSD… oh, what a pain in the posterior… However, I’m beginning to feel that, as we see a slightly deeper pullback, that once the majors come to the end of their current moves for a deeper correction, perhaps the Aussie can then make the final leg higher. For the moment, I suggest taking care but keep your eye on any bullish reversal indications.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Monday, August 14, 2017

FRIDAY'S OUTLOOK FOR USDCHF


FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF TO REACH 0.9578-88...



Still some messy bits to get through

The structures are building up but the only problem I see is that they’re ragged. Overall, we should be looking for Dollar gains today but there are some troubled spots, particularly as the day begins, that could see some nasty swings. This is also suggested by the 4-hour price Equilibrium Clouds that are providing a temporary barrier.

Having seen USDJPY complete the daily expanded flat, we know where the stop loss is now so basically maintain the bullish outlook. USDCHF is mixed, having seen a double zigzag. I tend to feel that we have probably completed the correction but it will be prudent to keep an eye over your should in case a triple three develop. However, there isn’t too much room below.

EURUSD has a little complication but I feel that we just need one more push higher to a final peak before the reversal. This is also applicable in GBPUSD that, even if it broke above 1.3027, it needs to see a 3-wave rally to complete the expanded flat.

EURJPY appears to still need gains if we are to see an expanded flat. That is possible with the additional rally in EURUSD and the expectation in USDJPY to join forces for the upside.

The Aussie? I had a look over the weekend and can’t find a way yet to suggest we have completed a bullish 5-wave sequence. I’ve also noted that it has broken above the descending wedge. Thus, while a bit cautious, it tends to suggest that the Aussie is going higher… However, I’d suggest keeping an eye on the downside just in case…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey