Friday, April 11, 2014

EASTER BREAK

Please note that I shall be taking a break and will be back on the 21st April. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thursday, April 10, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR AUDUSD

BIAS: We may have seen the top - or will around 0.9400-13 - thus expect losses to develop

Resistance: 0.9400-13 0.9427 0.9440 0.9453
Support: 0.9365-70 0.9347 0.9334 0.9300-05

MAIN ANALYSIS: Price reached 0.9378-85  and later 0.9398. While 0.9370 supports there is still a small risk that we've seen the final high. However, still allow for 0.9400-10. From there - or a direct break below 0.9365 - we should see 0.9347-57. I suspect a correction higher but then the stops can be placed at the high. Overall, once a correction has been seen then look for losses below 0.9347 and down to the 0.9253-75 area. This lower support should also provide a correction higher.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only above 0.9420 would shock and imply even further gains - noting 0.9440 and 0.9468…

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
8th April: Having seen the deeper correction yesterday I feel we are more likely to see the final high come in around the 0.9323- 0.9359 area. Therefore watch this with care. There are higher targets between 0.9385-0.9410 so they can't be forgotten but I doubt we'll see that degree of strength. However, this should be the final high that would provoke a total reversal lower. Thus watch for bearish reversal indications with a 4-hour bearish divergence already evident.

Only directly below 0.9205 and 0.9180 would provoke more direct losses...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Make or break

Price action in the Europeans developed pretty much as expected, perhaps the follow-through a little more than expected but still within boundaries… but only just. Indeed, the recycling is knocking on Dollar bearish doors. The interesting, and perhaps critical, part is that even momentum is facing the same issue in terms of Dollar bullish divergences but currently with momentum threatening to break those divergences… This relates specifically to EURUSD and USDCHF but not with GBPUSD. The latter reached within 3 points of my target and is promising a bearish divergence but here we have a slightly more complicated outcome as price has not yet completed the larger rally. Thus, there is a need for GBPUSD to act independently from the Continentals…

In the meantime, AUDUSD made a swashbuckling rally to the upper end of my target range. It probably has another peak to come but is displaying both hourly & 4-hour bearish divergences. Thus, there could be a tight balance between bullish & bearish here also.

What has been more puzzling are the JPY pairs. It seems as if, at 140.07 it stalled 6 points above a projection level. Thus, the break above my resistance has indicated an earlier correction. This should be just about complete and suggests losses to come. Given that USDJPY corrected more deeply than expected it has added a slight element of uncertainty in terms of the depth. It is in one of those positions where it could be shallow or could be deep. I suspect it could be modestly deep but this will require EURUSD to top out and carry EURJPY lower. If both USDJPY and EURUSD both decline then the cross could suffer some stronger losses. However, from what I am looking at, sharp losses are not really expected.

I think the Continental Europeans are probably the best bet but just make sure of the break. Next is the Aussie for a decent move…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, April 9, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDJPY

BIAS: Ideally we should see 101.99-06 cap for losses - but be aware of possible consolidation today

Resistance: 101.99-06 102.28 102.37-44 102.63
Support: 101.72 101.54 101.20 101.06

MAIN ANALYSIS: First the 102.66-95 area caved in… then 102.17-41 and later even the 101.89-01 area… The outcome implies a move below 100.75. First I should say that the decline was so sharp it is rather difficult to judge the structure well with so many brief corrections. However, my favoured outcome is that the 101.99-06 area caps for losses to resume. There is also a mild risk of a consolidation between 101.54 and 102.06. However in this decline the next downside target lies at 101.06. This should trigger another deep correction back to 102.30-40.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: It will take a break back above 102.10 to first confuse things… but if seen should see a move back to the 102.28-44 area at least. Also note the higher 102.78 area. 

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
9th April:  Yesterday's collapse has changed the immediate landscape entirely and implies a move down to 100.03-33 at least. There is a lower target at 99.52 but I can't see that we can reach that far. Right now we should see the 102.06 - 102.44 area should cap - first to reach 101.06 (from 101.99-06) and then correcting higher to 102.28-44 before losses to the 100.03-33 area.

Thus, only back above 102.50-78 would risk more confusion but potentially to send this back higher to 104.12 again...

Good trading
Ian Copsey 

Further Dollar losses to come

Ouch… Well, partly ouch… The big three – EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY all saw my outlooks crash spectacularly as Dollar supports withered, then crumbled and then disintegrate before my eyes. (Actually I was sleeping at the time but the first view this morning was made me wonder whether I was having a nightmare…) Therefore, a big revision in USDJPY was needed and a bit of re-adjustment to the structures in EURUSD and USDCHF.

That was the bad news although there’s a still a bit more to go. The good news was that AUDUSD and EURJPY developed really well (even if I thought it would be EURUSD that would fuel the decline in the cross…) In GBPUSD I did note that I felt the recovery from 1.6551 had begun with impulsive characteristics and discussed the conflict with the Continentals. I wish I had followed the GBPUSD thoughts with the other two…

While gutted with the big three I do see some redeeming features to this development – that once these current moves are complete all the Dollar-Currency pairs will be in correlation and imply a consistent Dollar directional move. I also feel that the outcome will also allow EURJPY to correct higher once it has found its lows.

For today we should see the habitual corrective activity during the Asian session to leave Europe and North America to provide the finishing touches to yesterday’s Dollar losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Dollar upside today

With the exception of the Aussie yesterday’s developments went exactly as planned, a comfortable day with Dollar losses being the dominant feature as expected. Elsewhere, even EURJPY provided the move back higher to resistance to complete a successful day. Thus, as we now approach the Dollar support levels indicated I suggested yesterday, both in the report and in the weekly video outlook the next reaction should be for the Dollar to resume its move higher. Once on its way we should then see the follow-through to those next projection targets I indicated yesterday.

There is one exception in AUDUSD and also one possible exception in GBPUSD although the latter is not expected to maintain the same level of strength as it did yesterday. The Aussie still needs to make a new high and I suspect this will happen today.

GBPUSD is an interesting case… It reached the resistance levels I suggested so in many ways may look as if it has done exactly as planned. However, I’m not totally convinced with the structure that developed. Having said that I do feel it will see a negative day today and we’ll need to watch the relative performance between EURUSD and GBPUSD. If the Pound fails to break below key supports I’d begin to get a little more bullish. This should be the focus for today.

Thus, overall today should be a reversal of yesterday and probably all-round… The key will be the relative performance of each…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



Monday, April 7, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR GBPUSD

BIAS: We should see a recovery back to the 1.6605-35 area before losses resume

Resistance: 1.6605 1.6620-25 1.6634 1.6660
Support: 1.6551 1.6525 1.6500-10 1.6480-85

MAIN ANALYSIS: Losses were a little deeper than expected although close to valid retracement support levels. However, both 4-hour & hourly momentum remain bearish and suggest that we still need a new low that could be as deep as the 1.6510-28 area. However, first thing we should see a recovery back to the 1.6620-25 area - and allow for 1.6634-40. From this correction we should then see losses down below 1.6551 and to the 1.6510-25 area. Observe for an hourly bullish divergence at the very least - 4-hour also preferable that would support the argument for a reversal higher.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only directly below 1.6495 would risk a retest of 1.6465… and if this breaks then we could be back on a bearish outlook…

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
3rd April:  There seems to be less chance we'll see 1.6695-1.6720-40 first and any break below 1.6617 will open the doors to the downside initially to 1.6564-82 but later also 1.6548 and potentially 1.6510-28. When approaching these lower areas look for bullish reversal indications.

Any earlier break above 1.6663 could still risk 1.6683-1.6717 but then the deeper correction...

Good trading
Ian Copsey