Friday, March 27, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: The break of 130.20-34 and the expected weakness in USDJPY should see losses overall

Resistance: 129.86 130.15-30 130.50 130.86
Support: 129.23-49 128.79-96 128.30-40 128.20

MAIN ANALYSIS: The 130.20-34 area (and at 130.16) looked as if it would see the follow-through higher. However, with USDJPY breaking supports this has turned round to a more direct decline. As today begins we should see the 130.15-30 area cap (allow for 130.50.) From here we should see losses resume to reach the 128.79-96 area for a shallow correction and then a target around 128.30-40. Take care here as I suspect a relatively deep correction. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break below 130.60 would take price back to the 131.40-50 area…

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
27th March:   Yesterday's losses, fuelled by USDJPY, should now see firmer moves down to 128.30-40 initially but later the overall losses should move down to 123.58 at least - potentially lower. As the lower degree development solidifies I should be able to fine-tune the target.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Greater clarity developing

The Europeans saw some broad, swinging moves yesterday. These appear to have been the completion of a complex correction in all three – although GBPUSD is not quite so clear. Overall it suggests further losses in the Dollar in the Continentals but not too robust, and the structure still suggesting potential for a development that sees a 3-wave move. Once those have been seen, the risk will be for a reversal.

In GBPUSD I have been looking for an alternative outcome. That it correlated well with EURUSD yesterday does raise some concerns and I’d suggest ensuring there are good trade signals. In some ways, I’d just like to see it move lower. However, this does require confirmation.

The Aussie appears to now have confirmed a high and thus we should be able to take advantage of the downside. Having said that, the current development is rather erratic so there’s still care to be taken. Overall, it should move lower.

As for the JPY pairs, we have seen USDJPY take bearish stance. There is room for a retracement over today but the next downside target does not require a deep correction. Keep your eyes peeled. This has a very clear eventual target area. As such, with the movement in EURUSD relatively limited, the risk is for EURJPY to follow USDJPY as it did yesterday. If there is any clearer vehicle to jump aboard it’s probably USDJPY and / or AUDUSD.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  



Thursday, March 26, 2015

Sitting on the fence

Cor blimey… what a rotten day. I hadn’t really expected too much yesterday, but the market was completely devoid of any idea what to do. Basically, the consolidation we saw was probably the best example of complete lack of commitment, desire and interest. We do still have the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds capping the Dollar and in USDCHF actually seeing the Cloud catch up with price. I can’t say there are any firm indications of a return to the Dollar upside so the apparent outcome should be for losses. However, we need to see some breaks of range soon to kick-start a more directional move.

I have been allowing GBPUSD to extend gains a little more but it just plain refuses to do so. This is beginning to sway the weight of argument to the downside. Indeed, if this occurs I can see a firmer directional move lower. I think this may be one of the better vehicles today.

The Aussie failed to move higher and actually saw a drift lower. It’s hardly a clear picture and I’m very well aware of the larger wave degrees having already satisfied a correction. However, it does need to set a stronger breaks to confirm its intent.

Even the indecisiveness has hit USDJPY. It has begun to build a base for further gains but hasn’t really made any definitive move as yet. It hasn’t broken any key supports or resistances and thus we’re going to remain patient. A break or two of key levels would really help this make a more robust move. Certainly, USDJPY hardly provided any leadership in EURJPY … which, along with EURUSD moving sideways, made for a really dull day.

I still have a preference for EURJPY to move in a very similar way to EURUSD – that is a bit down – and a bit up…  Frankly we need either EURUSD or USDJPY to commit to a direction.

So today starts still rather defensively but watch carefully for signs of a break out to see a more directional move.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, March 25, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: There appears to be a risk of losses to 1.0842-60 before rallying towards 1.1050-70 (approx)

Resistance: 1.0934 1.0952-68 1.1000-29 1.1050-70
Support: 1.0882-90 1.0842-60 1.0805-10 1.0784

MAIN ANALYSIS: Price did follow-through to just below 1.0974 and after a correction pushed above 1.0990-00 to 4-points above 1.1025. With the constraints I had been expecting from USDCHF, I am a little more comfortable with further gains. However, I suspect that first we should see a pullback to the 1.0842-60 area. With positive divergences we should then see a rally back towards 1.1025-30 and after a correction this could reach the 1.1050-70 area (approx.) Watch for bearish reversal indications but which suggests only for a correction.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a direct break above the 1.1075 high would suggest follow-through to 1.1114 and towards the 1.1150-55 area.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
25th March:  Am expecting a move to around 1.1050-70 followed by a correction and then another rally that could reach as high as 1.1140-60. Ideally this should cap for losses to renew but we shall need to confirm the reversal lower.

Below 1.0800 would begin to suggest that we have seen a major high and losses could resume - initially to 1.0735-67 but overall lower...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A certain vagueness

Further losses in the Dollar, excepting GBPUSD. I have taken a longer look at both EURUSD and USDCHF. I found an alternative outcome in the latter that provides a little more flexibility when considering EURUSD. I had been looking at the losses in USDCHF as being incompatible with EURUSD in terms of the alternative structure I have been proposing. The adjustment suggests that both pairs can renew Dollar gains – even if the Dollar slips lower again.

The more sluggish development seen yesterday has allowed the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds to support EURUSD but is still someway above USDCHF. To cover GBPUSD also, well, price is oscillating around the 4-hour Cloud, obviously demonstrating consolidation. Otherwise, momentum is not really providing any significant indications. The more challenging issue is the rather complicated structural development. At this point I tend to favour some minor new Dollar lows today but then pulling back. I’d also like GBPUSD to make a minor new corrective high but this is rather vague at the moment.

Even AUDUSD is a bit mixed, supported by the hourly Price Equilibrium Cloud, but the 4-hour Cloud still some way below. It tends to suggest a minor new high but may not be sustainable on the first attempt. This tends to keep it in play for the upside.

USDJPY extended losses to 3 points above a retracement support. It is currently being herded by the declining 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud, but threatening to break above the hourly Cloud. It tends to suggest a recovery at least but will need confirmation and that’s a bit higher up so we’ll have to be patient. As for EURJPY, well much depends on the two constituent parts and given the uncertainty over both I’d much rather wait until one or the other – or both – see a significant break.

Thus, the same cautious approach will still be prudent, taking profits when seen…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, March 24, 2015

A thin, fine grey line

I was certain that yesterday’s trading would be uncertain. Even after going through the analysis, I can’t say with any great confidence what the next move will be. The two critical pairs are the Continental Europeans. That they have move back to approach last Wednesday’s Dollar low extremes is rather concerning, particularly when there are only minor suggestions of reversal signals. GBPUSD has remained below my targets - which is encouraging. Momentum is vague, so I can’t suggest there is a strong argument for a reversal to yesterday’s Dollar losses. A break of those Dollar lows – perhaps allowing for one of those minor breaks and reversals – would turn the daily structure upside down and cause a huge adjustment to be required. As things stand now, I’d rather remain neutral and react to stronger reactions because, one way or the other, we’re likely to see a more sustained move.

What does encourage to a certain extent is the positions in GBPUSD and AUDUSD, both of which have absorbed the recent swings to retain a Dollar bullish outcome. However, there are limits and suggests that even these two should be observed with care.

USDJPY has not yet broken its bullish outlook. I won’t rule out a minor new low below 119.30 but there isn’t much room below before a more bearish outlook could be triggered. That EURJPY has not managed to retest the 131.61 high is encouraging but even a break wouldn’t necessarily break the expected move lower – but the critical element of the cross is still EURUSD.

Therefore, I still feel that we should remain cautious about this situation. I still favour a Dollar bullish outcome but it does appear to be a last gasp process…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



Monday, March 23, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR GBPUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: While 1.5010-58 cap we should see losses within a consolidation

Resistance: 1.4988 1.5010-29 1.5058 1.5085-00
Support: 1.4910-26 1.4880-85 1.4844-60 1.4795

MAIN ANALYSIS: The 1.4820-48 area was seen - but then failed to register any confirmation of a reversal. This appear to suggest that we could see a little higher to the 1.5010-30 area (allow for 1.5058) for a reversal back lower. Back below 1.4900 should then see losses down to the 1.4720-35 area where I feel a base will be seen for a reversal higher within range.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Directly above 1.5040-58 area would surprise and would imply a move above 1.5085 towards the 1.5119 high. Above here would risk 1.5136 - and perhaps higher.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
23rd March:   Yet another reversal higher - above 1.4850 - that appears to suggest that we could be seeing a triangle and could see a move into the 1.5010-29 area (max 1.5058). Assuming this is seen, then the next target should be around 1.4720-35. Overall, this should maintain the downside target between 1.4586- 1.4661 - probably the lower. While it would require a deep correction, the downside is likely to continue.

Only above 1.5119 would risk deeper gains.

Good trading
Ian Copsey