Friday, November 21, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: There should be a correction higher - maybe consolidation - before losses resume

Resistance: 118.20-25 118.47 118.73 118.97
Support: 117.73 117.40-50 117.05-22 116.85

MAIN ANALYSIS: After two days of exceptionally direct gains we should have found an intermediate high at the top of the lower 118.73-96 projection range advised yesterday. The first reversal has been seen and should now see a correction higher courtesy of the rising 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. How deep this will be and in which corrective structure is now the important issue. I suspect this correction shouldn't be too lengthy because the automatic first reversal target hasn't yet been seen - this being down at 115.45-116.00. For now watch the 118.47-118.73 range. Allow for a possible expanded flat complex correction that should remain above 117.39. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 117.39 would extend losses down through 117.05-22 and probably down towards the 116.00-05 area. The 115.45-75 area is also possible. 

Only a break above 118.97 would see a minor follow-through to 119.43. There is a higher projection target at 119.86-120.08 but I think this is getting too high... 

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
21st November:  It looks like the 118.73-96 has done the trick and should new see a relatively brief correction. This could be restricted to the 115.45-116.00 area but we'll need to observe the lower degree structure to confirm this. Any lower than 115.45-75 could see losses to below 115.00 and at most 113.60 - 85. Once this has been seen the next rally should develop once the daily Price Equilibrium Cloud rallies to push higher.

It'll take quite a drop to reverse this uptrend - the 113.60 area is probably where I'd place the line - but there is a deeper 111.50 retracement although it would be very unusual. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Quiet end to the week

I have to start with the JPY pairs. They have seen quite a rally and yesterday was yet another roller coaster ride. Has this rally ended? For now - yes. With these runaway moves it’s always difficult to be absolutely certain of which of the projection targets would provide the high. The projection we saw at 118.97 was just 1 point above the precise target. Of course, it dragged EURJPY by the collar and carried on its back for fun but hasn’t yet reached its full potential. There is room for a minor new high but overall the prospect appears to be for some more (relatively) stable range trading. This tends to suggest a fine balance between USDJPY – that needs to see some deeper losses – and EURUSD that has a puzzling structure – but within an underlying move higher. Thus, the elements are there to allow all three to provide a solution but it looks like a fragile ménage à trois. It seems to suggest a relatively quiet day, the market probably reluctant to get too bearish in USDJPY considering the strength we have seen which should support EURJPY also.

Meanwhile, the Europeans have provided what looks to be a cardiograph of a none too healthy heart. When eyeballing the chart it loos as if they have seen 5-wave moves but the lower degree structure doesn’t seem to support that theory. I can make out a possible structure in GBPUSD – although this needs completion – but the Continentals appear to have made a right hash of a corrective structure. These two chums look as if they should continue the consolidation right into the weekend and possibly into Monday also. Broadly, the apparent mismatch between the Continentals and GBPUSD do seem to work quite well but it will be GBPUSD that should provide the firmer outcome over the next few days.

Initially, take care in the Europeans as there should still be some jiggery pokery but should then see GBPUSD leave the pack.

Finally the Aussie found its low where I suggested and should now extend its correction higher. However, from what I perceive from the early recovery, there is a risk of a period of consolidation. Thus, note the limits and the two types of complex consolidation patterns that are open to it in this position in the structure.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Thursday, November 20, 2014

Walking a tightrope

I had no idea that that the FOMC minutes were to be announced. I guess that shows how much I rely on fundamentals. Basically, zero, zip, nil, nada, nadir, naught, nix... no way… Indeed, why would I want to skew a price indicator with such factors? I don’t suggest that traders should ignore economic releases but do expect them to consider the impact of any announcement along with a price indicator that provides a structure…

So now that we have got past the initial panic, what does that mean? At this early stage the price information remains a bit scant. Therefore, as the day begins I can only point to the parts of the structure that have developed and suggest where it points. There are only two real options and it is therefore a matter of identifying where one option breaks down and the other develops. In the Europeans, that means we shall either recycle to the most recent Dollar high – or we’ll see losses extend directly.

The Aussie broke below a couple of supports and is tending to suggest we have seen a high. However, having said that, we have probably seen the bulk of the initial losses. Therefore, we may well see much of the day witnessing a return to the upside…

As for the JPY pairs, we saw the expected gains – and actually just a bit more. I am finding these two exceptionally difficult with continued direct gains that have seen only rare attempts to correct lower. Both 4-hour and hourly momentum have been strong and I can’t see a drastic reversal lower. If anything, the downside should be corrective only. However, the direct nature of these rallies, accompanied by a significant level of low-level noise, has made the process of identifying the significant wave endings very difficult to judge. Yesterday’s high appears to have broken above a projection I was counting on which - accompanied by the bullish momentum – continues to makes the outlook more bullish. We have already reached the minimum targets I indicated in September 2012. No doubt there is more to come. The same is true of EURJPY in terms of both complexity of the shallow pullbacks and upside targets.

Today, be cautious considering the complications triggered by the FOMC and take note of the alternatives.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Dallying with a possible consolidation again

The Dollar downside targets in the Continental Europeans were hit nicely. These were tentative targets within yet another possible consolidation and from what I can see of the development, it does suggest the high risk of that a sideways move seems to be on the cards. It would be beneficial to ensure that the reversal back higher is confirmed and if so, then we have a relatively simple task of knowing where the rough boundaries of the consolidation will lay. Thus, the extension of the market’s lack of commitment to either side is likely to continue…

Perhaps a supporting factor to the above is the lack of interest in GBPUSD. It wobbled one way and then the other but in terms of it also joining in with the Continentals in a sideways move, well… I can’t see it happening now. Perhaps, given its recent preference for the downside, that could well be the outcome today which suggests a move to the targets I mentioned at the end of last week. Watch out for that…

The Aussie broke the resistance I had thought would send it higher… but then reversed to a new corrective low. Not only is it just a bit annoying, but also leaves us with an inconclusive outcome. This still has potential on both sides of the market but hopefully today could clarify the structure, or even force a breakout. Just be patient until the break is made.

USDJPY puzzled. EURJPY made a new high. The cross, in particular, appears to have a bias to the upside which could provide a clue for USDJPY. It also has both hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds supporting price with momentum not really demonstrating any significant bearish intent. With the risk of EURUSD returning into consolidation, it appears to imply that USDJPY must provide the bullish fuel. Thus, it’s going to take a break to a new high to send USDJPY higher and potentially support the apparent promise of a stronger cross. Until that break higher occurs, be a bit more cautious.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, November 18, 2014

WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR GOLD

INTRADAY CHART
18th November:

We have seen the deep correction that seems to have confirmed the Wave [a] low indicated last week and thus we are looking for a high in Wave [b]. This can occur at any time - the high at 1,194.12 may have even provided that high. However, we still have to allow for the 61.8%-76.4% retracement area between 1,196-1,211 area (note the 66.7% at 1,201) should cap for losses in Wave [c] / [iii] to the 398.4%-423.6% projection at 1,096.75-1,105 (and note the 461.8% projection at 1,084.25.)  As long as the Wave [iv] satisfies alternation it will require a 41.4%-50% retracement . 


Only a direct move above 1,215 would suggest further gains ....

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Approaching Dollar losses again

As expected, the follow through lower in the Dollar didn’t last for long and actually saw the targets in EURUSD and USDCHF reach within a few points of expectations. Equally, once seen, the Dollar rallied back into the safety zone of the prior consolidation. This rally had some very indistinct waves although I feel there is a strong chance that we could see another messy consolidation rather like the one that caused so many problems last week. I cannot be certain at this stage but the crucial first leg does seem to provide the potential. There are some early targets that would complete these first legs but from there we then need to confirm whether the complexity will repeat.

GBPUSD moved into the upper end of the retracement zone. I’m trying to work out whether this will become complex also. From the wave it is correcting, it is very much a possibility – perhaps probability… However, I do feel this can be independent of the Continentals so there is potential for a divergence between them. Also keep in mind the way GBPUSD forged its own route last week. It has the potential to do so again but at some stage I do think they’ll come back into correlation.

AUDUSD topped out midway into the upper target range. I don’t think this has the same structure as the Continental Europeans so once this correction is complete it can make a more direct move. Whether this will draw out the Europeans is not know, but this entire group is basically developing through a very similar requirement.

The moves in USDJPY and EURJPY were … err… interesting. I am undecided about whether we shall see a new high in USDJPY but I’m more of the mind that EURJPY has found its current high. Therefore, with the Euro currently having an underlying bullish outlook, it suggests that USDJPY is unlikely to surge higher. More, I feel the next higher target I mentioned is more likely. This should see EURJPY fumbling around for a while. I can see mild upside and downside available so it could provide some tricky trading conditions.

Once again, there doesn’t appear to be any home runs so it’ll need nimble fingers and attention to extract a few points here and there…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Monday, November 17, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDCHF

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: While 0.9598-15 caps we should see losses to 0.9535-50

Resistance: 0.9598 0.9612 0.9620-25 0.9635
Support: 0.9585 0.9567 0.9550 0.9535

MAIN ANALYSIS: While the lower of the 0.9679-87 targets initially capped, price decided to retest the higher. From there we have seen losses down to 0.9573. While 0.9595-98 caps there is still risk of one more dip to the 0.9567 target for a correction back to around 0.9612. From here losses should be seen to below 0.9567 low and then to the 0.9535-50 area. There is a deeper projection that should be noted - at 0.9514-17. Thus observe for bullish reversal indications from there. 
NOTE: there is a minor risk that the 0.9567 target will not be seen and thus the piullback higher could reach the 0.9612-20 area. This would probably limit the downside to closer around 0.9550. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only below 0.9514 would risk losses extending to 0.9486-0.9503… Also note the deeper 0.9449 retracement area.

Only directly back above 0.9625 would risk a move back to 0.9635 at least … and if this breaks then up to 0.9670-88.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
10th November:  I am feeling more confident of the structure now that EURUSD has matched the same structure. This should see some swings over the coming few weeks. This should see losses now to 0.9517-50 minimum and could be lower to the 0.9450-90 area. 

Only a break below 0.9359 would concern at this point...

Good trading
Ian Copsey